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Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 10:04 AM Nov 2015

Bernie Sanders Reaches New High in Support: Poll

Source: NBC News





Read more: http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/poll-hillary-clinton-holds-steady-support-among-democrats-n466641



I'm not someone who puts much faith in nationwide polling in a primary race, especially when the first votes to be cast are still months away, but I'm glad to see steady progress.
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Bernie Sanders Reaches New High in Support: Poll (Original Post) Attorney in Texas Nov 2015 OP
Second debate bump? He did do well. Hortensis Nov 2015 #1
The gap is narrowing! Helen Borg Nov 2015 #2
Let's look at the gap... brooklynite Nov 2015 #3
niiiiiiiiine ellllllven azurnoir Nov 2015 #7
Gaps before Biden decides against running = 45%, 22%, 24%, 12%, 14%. Gaps after Biden = 20%, 16% Attorney in Texas Nov 2015 #8
Biden withdrew on October 21, Webb withdrew on October 20.... George II Nov 2015 #40
That was the sympathy reaction to the Benghazi hearings that gave Hillary a boost. JDPriestly Nov 2015 #58
If it was a "sympathy reaction", why did Sanders' number go down as well as hers up? George II Nov 2015 #80
The asterisks for the withdrawal of Biden and Webb are missing from your numbers. JDPriestly Nov 2015 #90
Thanks - I originally had all the events lumped together, then broke them up around the dates.... George II Nov 2015 #92
As I explained in another post, the polls do not measure the enthusiasm that makes the difference. JDPriestly Nov 2015 #93
Opps liberal N proud Nov 2015 #26
Clinton got a sympathy boost after the Benghazi hearing, and now we are back to Bernie JDPriestly Nov 2015 #56
True! Duval Nov 2015 #63
A Sanders win Helen Borg Nov 2015 #127
Yup, it just keeps narrowing. Nitram Nov 2015 #126
At this rate, he will catch up with Hillary two years after she wins Iowa in 10 weeks. nt onehandle Nov 2015 #4
yup, just like Obama in '08 corkhead Nov 2015 #9
There is no Obama, this time around. nt onehandle Nov 2015 #11
Sadly there's no FDR either. corkhead Nov 2015 #12
'08 didn't have any Bernie Sanders, either... tex-wyo-dem Nov 2015 #35
Yes it did. OilemFirchen Nov 2015 #50
Kuch was my first choice in '08... tex-wyo-dem Nov 2015 #64
Ex post facto. OilemFirchen Nov 2015 #69
No it didn't. Bubzer Nov 2015 #65
Not to fear, there is still a Hillary. n/t A Simple Game Nov 2015 #71
Q: Who said “Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it”? A: Not Hillary Clinton Attorney in Texas Nov 2015 #14
Oopf! NurseJackie Nov 2015 #46
Based on that growth, he'll be at 45% after Super Tuesday...still behind. brooklynite Nov 2015 #5
I try to ignore these unnecessary barbs, ejbr Nov 2015 #18
I'm not trying to convince you at all... brooklynite Nov 2015 #23
But Clinton is consistantly not preferred on DU That Guy 888 Nov 2015 #25
Clinton is also consistently not prefered with liberal pundits. But media and GOP pundits love her. Bubzer Nov 2015 #48
Well to be fair, Stephanie Miller does support Hillary That Guy 888 Nov 2015 #57
Really? Last time listened to her show, she was heavily talking up Bernie sanders. Bubzer Nov 2015 #61
I think she was trying to make amends with Bernie Sanders supporters That Guy 888 Nov 2015 #77
The Brunch with Bernie segments seem to be happening infrequently now... which is understandable. Bubzer Nov 2015 #88
And yet, when I go out and talk to voters as I campaign for Bernie, I see no enthusiastic JDPriestly Nov 2015 #62
In that case, you have nothing to worry about... brooklynite Nov 2015 #74
Again ejbr Nov 2015 #73
Ah, to live in a linear world... tex-wyo-dem Nov 2015 #36
But if he gains, it is likely that she will lose an equal amount. So . . . . . . JDPriestly Nov 2015 #59
Hey, 18-29... Earth_First Nov 2015 #6
while it good i don't live by polls Robbins Nov 2015 #10
I never focus on one poll...I look at the trend line brooklynite Nov 2015 #13
Clinton's polling trend line looks worse than it did in 2007; Sanders' looks better than Obama 2007. Attorney in Texas Nov 2015 #15
Take a close look at the chart... brooklynite Nov 2015 #16
This message was self-deleted by its author tex-wyo-dem Nov 2015 #38
As has been pointed out, Sanders does not have the resources of Barack Obama... brooklynite Nov 2015 #39
A more valid argument is Hillary has paid for numerous polls, so of course they will favor her. Bubzer Nov 2015 #54
Good point Buzber... tex-wyo-dem Nov 2015 #66
I self deleted the last post, but the meme... tex-wyo-dem Nov 2015 #55
I don't care what polls say Shadowflash Nov 2015 #17
Agreed. I'm thrilled to vote Sanders in the primary. I hope I get the chance to vote Sanders in the Attorney in Texas Nov 2015 #20
Post removed Post removed Nov 2015 #34
this. navarth Nov 2015 #22
Agreed. Shadowflash Nov 2015 #27
What does True Blue mean? okasha Nov 2015 #67
In my experience it has meant this: navarth Nov 2015 #70
Like I said, an advertising slogan. okasha Nov 2015 #75
Ah I see. navarth Nov 2015 #91
Odd, though, that one of those slogans okasha Nov 2015 #98
Sorry, I didn't quite follow what you said. navarth Nov 2015 #100
Exactly my own position Trajan Nov 2015 #28
HUGE K & R !!! - THANK YOU !!! WillyT Nov 2015 #19
So, what is shows is no statistically significant change from 10-13-15 til now Tarc Nov 2015 #21
Nice try! It suggests Sanders eclipsed the huge bump Clinton got when Biden decided against running Attorney in Texas Nov 2015 #24
How does one "eclipse" something by remaining stagnant? Tarc Nov 2015 #29
Bernie up 3% points in two weeks .. Clinton is down 1% Trajan Nov 2015 #30
I don't mean to sound snarky, but Tarc Nov 2015 #31
If you wanna go with feeling over math, be my guest Tarc Nov 2015 #32
That's ok ... Get it out .... Trajan Nov 2015 #33
Trajan, you sound petulant and defensive. Nitram Nov 2015 #44
Bernie can't lose! Powers Hapgood Nov 2015 #37
You heard it here first folks... brooklynite Nov 2015 #41
I hope you read my post carefully. Powers Hapgood Nov 2015 #72
He's doing better than Obama was at this point. fbc Nov 2015 #42
Let me get this straight. Do polls matter or not? Nitram Nov 2015 #43
they may still be flawed Robbins Nov 2015 #49
But if he wins, this means the Bernistas are right. immoderate Nov 2015 #101
If Nitram Nov 2015 #107
This can't be true coyote Nov 2015 #45
Right here, Coyote. Nitram Nov 2015 #51
Where are Clinton's numbers dropping? brooklynite Nov 2015 #53
A bit of wisdom . . . Powers Hapgood Nov 2015 #76
Woot! K&R & Huzza! -nt- 99th_Monkey Nov 2015 #47
I got a purty color picture of all the polls. yallerdawg Nov 2015 #52
You should add "Blue/Green stripe" - Even. DCBob Nov 2015 #81
Both of the recent changes could just be noise karynnj Nov 2015 #60
Any single data point might be just "noise," but Clinton consistently polled in the upper 60s for Attorney in Texas Nov 2015 #79
Both those graphs show things looking good for Hillary. DCBob Nov 2015 #87
Yes, they do. Not NEARLY as good as they looked for Hillary Clinton in 2007, but still quite good Attorney in Texas Nov 2015 #99
Wow, some of you guys are really banking on history repeating itself. DCBob Nov 2015 #102
Not at all. I fear history is repeating itself. Clinton's the front-runner; Sanders the underdog. Attorney in Texas Nov 2015 #103
Of course Hillary didn't lose the general election.. she wasnt in it. There is no history there. DCBob Nov 2015 #104
No she didn't lose the general election because her collapse came just in time for us to nominate Attorney in Texas Nov 2015 #105
Now you are making up history. DCBob Nov 2015 #112
She folded like a cheap card table, but feel free to spin whatever revisionist tales you want to Attorney in Texas Nov 2015 #114
Its a fact, if not for the caucus states she would have won. DCBob Nov 2015 #116
So ... "but for the democratic process, she would have been crowned in 2008?" But for Ronald Reagan Attorney in Texas Nov 2015 #117
So... as i said she nearly won. DCBob Nov 2015 #118
Rick Santorum keeps saying that, too. Literally, if you were doomed to listen to his stump speeches, Attorney in Texas Nov 2015 #120
Here's something to refresh your memory.. DCBob Nov 2015 #121
The Santorum campaign hands out similar graphs Attorney in Texas Nov 2015 #122
Now you are totally not making any sense. DCBob Nov 2015 #123
This message was self-deleted by its author DCBob Nov 2015 #119
What???!!! Too Old For B.S. Nov 2015 #68
People get more conservative as they get older I guess. fbc Nov 2015 #84
Yes, but.... Too Old For B.S. Nov 2015 #113
Because she's one of us in a pantsuit. Nitram Nov 2015 #95
Consider that Bernie is the first feasible candidate in generations who is not a Reaganite. immoderate Nov 2015 #109
Kerry was a Reaganite? Gore? Jerry Brown? George McGovern? Ted Kennedy? Nitram Nov 2015 #124
You got me. But it's close. McGovern is timed out of there. But was he feasible? (Really loved him.) immoderate Nov 2015 #128
Well.... Too Old For B.S. Nov 2015 #115
There you go again. Nitram Nov 2015 #125
It's happening fbc Nov 2015 #78
yes, steady progress for Hillary -- Sept 17 to Nov 15: Clinton +8 Sanders +4 DCBob Nov 2015 #82
And, since April, Hillary down 1 point, Sanders up 28 points fbc Nov 2015 #83
Hillary is showing amazing consistency at around 50%. DCBob Nov 2015 #85
But can 50% be maintained once the elections start? fbc Nov 2015 #86
Well, yes but Iowa looks like a big win for Hillary.. unless you think the polls are bogus. DCBob Nov 2015 #89
Amazing how far you can go up when you start so low... Nitram Nov 2015 #96
Just 2 months from now. Major Hogwash Nov 2015 #94
May the best candidate win! Nitram Nov 2015 #97
good news, and still plenty of time to close the gap. nt restorefreedom Nov 2015 #106
Definitely plenty of time. In past primaries, they lead has flipped back and forth multiple times in Attorney in Texas Nov 2015 #108
Funny how it's not happening this time... brooklynite Nov 2015 #110
Usually happens in December or January or February. Be patient, grasshopper, and watch it unfold Attorney in Texas Nov 2015 #111

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
8. Gaps before Biden decides against running = 45%, 22%, 24%, 12%, 14%. Gaps after Biden = 20%, 16%
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 10:31 AM
Nov 2015

I like that trend, but bear in mind it's a national poll ten weeks before the Iowa caucus.

George II

(67,782 posts)
40. Biden withdrew on October 21, Webb withdrew on October 20....
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 12:19 PM
Nov 2015

...the poll a week later had Clinton up 5% and Sanders down 1%. Sanders lost ground after those two withdrew.

JDPriestly

(57,936 posts)
58. That was the sympathy reaction to the Benghazi hearings that gave Hillary a boost.
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 12:55 PM
Nov 2015

But now we are back to the real contest, and Bernie is gradually gaining on her.

George II

(67,782 posts)
80. If it was a "sympathy reaction", why did Sanders' number go down as well as hers up?
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 01:55 PM
Nov 2015

And here are the trends as calculated by Huffington Pollster:

Sept 27 44.1 25.2 1.1 +18.9
Oct 14 48.3 25.4 1.2 +22.9
Oct 21 51.1 27.0 1.5 +24.1*
Nov 1 54.2 30.4 2.3 +23.8**
Nov 8 54.3 30.5 2.5 +23.8
Nov 10 54.3 30.4 2.6 +23.9
Nov 18 54.2 30.1 3.0 +24.1

* After 1st debate and Benghazi hearing
**After Biden, Webb withdraw

In the last seven weeks Clinton has gained 10.2%, Sanders 4.9%, O'Malley 1.9%, and the gap between Clinton and Sanders has widened by 5.2%.

If there was any kind of sympathy reaction, it would have been 7 weeks ago and temporary. And Bernie is definitely not "gradually gaining on her."

JDPriestly

(57,936 posts)
90. The asterisks for the withdrawal of Biden and Webb are missing from your numbers.
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 02:19 PM
Nov 2015

You are using the Huffington Pollster, not the numbers posted above.

Bernie is gaining and will gain more. According to the poll in the OP, Hillary has come down since the Benghazi bump.

You are citing a different poll, I believe.

The OP is citing the NBC poll.

Shows how polls can differ. One is wrong. I suppose if you search far and wide, you can find a poll that agrees with your opinion.

Based on my personal experience talking to voters, I am amazed at the enthusiasm and depth of excitement about Sanders. I am also amazed by the number of voters who tell me they don't like Hillary. She is not a very likable person. I note that the polls don't ask whether people like her, just whether they will vote for her. Since most people assume she will be the candidate, they will tell pollsters that they will vote for her. That's like asking Democrats whether they will vote for a Democrat.

But Sanders is definitely the favorite. He is the one people want to vote for. He will win because in the end, the people who vote want to feel comfortable with their vote. In the end, people vote for the candidate they like.

I for one, do not like Hillary. I will vote for all other Democrats, but if Hillary is the candidate, I will not vote for her. Most voters will just stay home and not vote for any candidate if the presidential candidate is someone they don't really like.

I was at the polls from early morning till they closed when Obama was elected. There were two precincts voting at the location, one African-American, one white. The voting machines in the African-American precinct broke down (we were told) and the voters stood in line a long, long time just to vote for Obama.

You will not see that kind of determination in the resigned voters for Hillary. But Sanders voters will vote for Sanders come Hell or High Water. Wait and see. Sanders will win.

The polls only tell so much of the story. They do not measure the fervor or dedication to voting. That's what matters most. If no candidate has that kind of fervor among his/her voters, then the polls are more meaningful. But Bernie voters feel the Bern. How many times has someone responded to my mentioning Bernie with that phrase: "Feel the Bern!" You just won't find that enthusiasm for Hillary. It simply is not there. The numbers don't measure that.

George II

(67,782 posts)
92. Thanks - I originally had all the events lumped together, then broke them up around the dates....
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 02:26 PM
Nov 2015

...that they happened.

In that one poll, Clinton is down a mere point, Sanders up three. But the rolling average algorithm that Huffington Pollster uses shows her up the % that I indicated.

Incidentally, RealClearPolitics, which also has a rolling average algorithm shows the numbers at:

40.8, 27.6, and 0.8 on September 27 Clinton +13.2
55.4, 30.2, and 3.5 on November 19 Clinton +25.2

She's gained 12.0% over that period.

JDPriestly

(57,936 posts)
93. As I explained in another post, the polls do not measure the enthusiasm that makes the difference.
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 02:31 PM
Nov 2015

And after the students go home for Christmas and maybe even Thanksgiving vacation and talk to their families, there may be a difference. Students are really keen on supporting Bernie. And for good reason. Their futures are at stake.

JDPriestly

(57,936 posts)
56. Clinton got a sympathy boost after the Benghazi hearing, and now we are back to Bernie
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 12:53 PM
Nov 2015

slowly moving up.

That's what the chart tells me.

Clinton's Benghazi bump was only temporary.

Bernie is back on track to win in the end. The more people see and hear him, the more they like him and prefer him to Hillary.

 

Duval

(4,280 posts)
63. True!
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 01:03 PM
Nov 2015

Plus there are Bernie forums all over the country. We're going to one next week. Go Bernie Go!!


Helen Borg

(3,963 posts)
127. A Sanders win
Mon Nov 23, 2015, 03:16 PM
Nov 2015

Is a logical necessity. Follows from the premises, like the proof of a theorem. The truth is unstoppable.

tex-wyo-dem

(3,190 posts)
35. '08 didn't have any Bernie Sanders, either...
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 11:54 AM
Nov 2015

Perhaps he can outperform Obama.

Guess we'll find out.

tex-wyo-dem

(3,190 posts)
64. Kuch was my first choice in '08...
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 01:04 PM
Nov 2015

But he didn't have the organization or level of support Bernie has and Edwards (a much more well known name) was running on a populist message. '07/'08 was also a very different time than now: the full horrific effects of the Great Recession had not yet been felt and the wealth disparity in this country was not well understood (Occupy changed the entire conversation).

Sanders has built on the entire reason Occupy occurred and has struck a deep and wide chord.

OilemFirchen

(7,288 posts)
69. Ex post facto.
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 01:23 PM
Nov 2015

If this were an eight person race, Sanders would likely suffer from the same campaign deficits Kucinich faced. And would likely be polling in the single digits.

Bubzer

(4,211 posts)
65. No it didn't.
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 01:06 PM
Nov 2015

Dennis Kucinich never achieved 33% favorability among Dems for candidacy.
Dennis doesn't have the amazing voting record that Bernie has, nor the long running history of being a social justice warrior.
He also was never named the Amendment King, like Bernie was.

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
14. Q: Who said “Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it”? A: Not Hillary Clinton
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 10:42 AM
Nov 2015

ejbr

(5,892 posts)
18. I try to ignore these unnecessary barbs,
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 11:01 AM
Nov 2015

but I have to ask: to what end? You are not addressing policy. You are just "shoving Sanders supporters faces" in poll numbers like a miserable bully.

Are we supposed to change our minds and vote for Hillary? Stop hoping for whatever slight chance that Bernie can pull this off? Concede defeat and accept your perspective on where our country should go? Please, explain your reason for being so obnoxious.

I know it is difficult to read posts about what we see as Hillary's shortcomings, but this tactic does not address those.

 

brooklynite

(96,882 posts)
23. I'm not trying to convince you at all...
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 11:17 AM
Nov 2015

My focus on convincing people happens out in the real world.

As for these discussions: You're welcome to vote for whom to want. Sanders is welcome to stay in the race as long as he wants (I expect he'll keep running to focus on his issues up until the Convention).

As for dashing your "hopes": you have a safe space in the Bernie Sanders group. It's not our job to make you feel good by hiding data points that show Clinton is consistently preferred by a majority of Democrats. I presented an informed observation: Sanders' gradual increase, if maintained, will still have him below 50% by the time more than half the delegates have been selected. If you disagree with the data, do feel free to counter it; nobody else on Sanders side is willing to.

I've worked on political campaigns for 35+ years; many of my candidates have lost, and I've never tried to hide from the cold realities of how they were doing. I suggest you consider doing the same.

 

That Guy 888

(1,214 posts)
25. But Clinton is consistantly not preferred on DU
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 11:23 AM
Nov 2015

That seems to be driving most of these "he's not going to beat Hillary" posts.

Bubzer

(4,211 posts)
48. Clinton is also consistently not prefered with liberal pundits. But media and GOP pundits love her.
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 12:40 PM
Nov 2015

All those great shows and hosts from the bygone days of Air America;
The Ring of Fire,
Thom Hartman,
The Young Turks,
Norman Goldman,
Bill Press,
Ed Schultz,
Mike Maloy,
Rachel Maddow
Randi Rhodes,
Kieth Olbermann,
Sam Seder...
All of them support Bernie Sanders and not hillary.

 

That Guy 888

(1,214 posts)
57. Well to be fair, Stephanie Miller does support Hillary
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 12:53 PM
Nov 2015

She's enthusiastic about her preferred candidate without being obnoxious. Not easy to do but she does it.

Bubzer

(4,211 posts)
61. Really? Last time listened to her show, she was heavily talking up Bernie sanders.
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 01:01 PM
Nov 2015

I'll take you at your word, though, and remove her from the list.

 

That Guy 888

(1,214 posts)
77. I think she was trying to make amends with Bernie Sanders supporters
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 01:48 PM
Nov 2015

She and Chris were a bit dismissive of his chances at first, but it's not like they hated him for running against Hillary. I think they've either had him on in the past, or know him through Thom Hartmann and his Brunch With Bernie.

I haven't listened to Thom lately, has Brunch with Bernie been suspended until after the primaries? I always liked that Bernie set aside time to talk with regular Americans.

Bubzer

(4,211 posts)
88. The Brunch with Bernie segments seem to be happening infrequently now... which is understandable.
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 02:10 PM
Nov 2015

I do love that segment. Sanders' willingness to answer questions from the average citizen makes me genuinely respect him. So few are willing to open themselves up to the public like that.

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=brunch+with+bernie&search_sort=video_date_uploaded

JDPriestly

(57,936 posts)
62. And yet, when I go out and talk to voters as I campaign for Bernie, I see no enthusiastic
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 01:02 PM
Nov 2015

support for Hillary and so much enthusiastic support for Bernie.

Hillary is just not likable. In the end, the fact that Bernie is respected and loved by so many actual voters will put the lie to these polls.

It's quite phenomenal. I have done a lot of grass-roots campaigning and the only thing close was the enthusiasm for Obama in 2008 and that was not nearly as strong as the enthusiasm for Bernie this time around.

People are very angry about the economy, especially young people are angry about how they are going to pay for college. Bernie is speaking to the real concerns of Democrats.

Hillary cannot. Her solutions are half-measures and people don't like her nayway. They tell me htat.

Hillary stands for corruption -- what with all her corporate money.

Bernie stands for working people -- with his support from the nurses (and who works harder?) and from average wage-earners.

That's what I am learning from being out there on the street.

Bernie is almost too easy a sale. And his speech yesterday, once it filters through to voters, is going to help him enormously.

 

brooklynite

(96,882 posts)
74. In that case, you have nothing to worry about...
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 01:44 PM
Nov 2015

...and if I post something about polling that you don't believe, it shouldn't bothet you at all. Just sit back and wait for us to be surprised.

FWIW - my experience, and that of the Clinton staff that I know is different. I'll note that there have been many times I've questioned supprt for a candidate on the grounds that their campaign is hopeless, only to be told that I don't know what's going on "on the ground". Invariably I'm correct, because I don't let emotion cloud my judgement.

Robbins

(5,066 posts)
10. while it good i don't live by polls
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 10:35 AM
Nov 2015

but let's address it.the polling ended sunday so this means bernie got bumb from debate.

overall-bernie is up to 33% with clinton at 49%.in a 2 person race it's never been closer.when biden was looking like he was going to get in,in september/october it did look closer but bernie is the highest ever with 33% of dems nationwide choosing him with clinton for first time under 50% in 2 person race.

since they have bernie ahead 55 to 33 among 18-29 year olds i can take this seriously

clinton leads the other age groups but bernie has seen small upticks

Clinton now leads with men only 45 to 39.bernie has been picking up with men

among woman she leads 53 to 29 but this is best bernie has done with woman here.to be fair this is her highest number with women

among whites it's basicly a dead heat Clinton-44% Bernie-41% bernie's support among whites has been going up while her's decline.

among blacks yeah she has big lead but there has been improvement for bernie.he's at 16% nationwide while yeah she is at 66% with blacks.

 

brooklynite

(96,882 posts)
13. I never focus on one poll...I look at the trend line
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 10:41 AM
Nov 2015
.

Doesn't look like the gap is closing.

Add to which, Sanders is reaching the point where he won't gain much more if he can't start peeling away voters who are already in Clinton's camp.

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
15. Clinton's polling trend line looks worse than it did in 2007; Sanders' looks better than Obama 2007.
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 10:44 AM
Nov 2015
 

brooklynite

(96,882 posts)
16. Take a close look at the chart...
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 10:50 AM
Nov 2015

She's above 50% and rising.

In 2008 she was BELOW 50% and not rising



Add to which Sanders doesn't have a third candidate with a significant share of the vote to draw from when they drop out.

Response to brooklynite (Reply #16)

 

brooklynite

(96,882 posts)
39. As has been pointed out, Sanders does not have the resources of Barack Obama...
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 12:19 PM
Nov 2015

As has also been pointed out, unless Sanders is going to pull votes from Clinton, even a non-linear graph won't get him about 50%.

Or are we back to an "anything can happen" argument?

Bubzer

(4,211 posts)
54. A more valid argument is Hillary has paid for numerous polls, so of course they will favor her.
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 12:49 PM
Nov 2015

Bernie said early he wasn't interested in polls so much. Pollsters want more money, so they'll keep showing favorable results to those who're buying. Add to that PACs paying specifically for favorable results and it becomes quite clear that pollsters such as the PPP (for example) have been co-opted.

Ultimately, polls are just a form of propaganda anyway, regardless of who they claim is winning. Come super Tuesday, we'll all know who we need to put our support behind; Clinton or Sanders.

tex-wyo-dem

(3,190 posts)
66. Good point Buzber...
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 01:07 PM
Nov 2015

The PPP poll released after the last debate pretty much proves your assertion.

tex-wyo-dem

(3,190 posts)
55. I self deleted the last post, but the meme...
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 12:50 PM
Nov 2015

That Sanders is no Obama is really worn out.

True, Sanders does not have the resources that Obama had in 2008...he has a completely different set of resources. His campaign is almost entirely built on grassroots. I also have been following and participating in campaigns for years and have never seen one like Sanders'. Almost completely driven from the bottom up. That being said, Sanders is working against a lot of opposing forces: establishment Dems, the DNC, mass media, Citizens United, wealthy interests, etc, etc

Polls this early have little meaning, but considering Sanders was a virtually unknown four months ago, and is still unknown by many voters, his support at this time is stunning. Many who haven't been following the primary race (a considerable %) when asked "who do you support"? will choose the known commodity. Sanders and O'Malley are relative unknowns, Clinton is a household name. I think a considerable % of Clinton's support is soft and vulnerable, and it's up to Sanders and the grassroots to convince that soft support that Sanders is the better choice.

Shadowflash

(1,536 posts)
17. I don't care what polls say
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 10:59 AM
Nov 2015

I finally have the opportunity to vote for someone who shares my values and I don't have to hold my nose while casting it.

If Clinton wins the nomination, so be it, I'll vote for her in the general election while holding my nose because she is still head and shoulders above any of the republicans.

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
20. Agreed. I'm thrilled to vote Sanders in the primary. I hope I get the chance to vote Sanders in the
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 11:14 AM
Nov 2015

general election, too, but if Clinton is our nominee, she will nevertheless be a far better choice than her opponent no matter which xenophobic idiot they choose.

I hope Sanders wins, but if he doesn't, I'm still pleased with how his candidacy has shaped the debate and how his candidacy has demonstrated that there is a thirst within the Democratic party for a candidate who is more progressive than the status quo establishment wing moderates.

Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #20)

navarth

(5,927 posts)
22. this.
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 11:16 AM
Nov 2015

It is sometimes interesting to watch the dueling polls food fight but it all comes down to one thing for me: I trust Bernie because he is True Blue. Hillary is not even my second choice.

I have not yet found a clothes pin big enough to hold my nose if I have to vote for her as the lesser of two corporate evils; but if I have to find one I will. Meh.

Shadowflash

(1,536 posts)
27. Agreed.
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 11:32 AM
Nov 2015

'I have not yet found a clothes pin big enough to hold my nose if I have to vote for her as the lesser of two corporate evils; but if I have to find one I will. Meh.'

I could NOT have said it better.

okasha

(11,573 posts)
67. What does True Blue mean?
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 01:09 PM
Nov 2015

It sounds like an advertising slogan: "Coke is the real thing." "Orange Crush is the taste of peace. " (I have NEVER figured that one out.)

navarth

(5,927 posts)
70. In my experience it has meant this:
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 01:27 PM
Nov 2015

trustworthy, honest, someone that has your back.

I never heard the Orange Crush thing. Is that recent? It always tasted like orange pop to me.

I think it might be made in Denver, because I remember at one time the Broncos called their defensive unit the orange crush.

Oh well. Hope that helps.

okasha

(11,573 posts)
75. Like I said, an advertising slogan.
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 01:44 PM
Nov 2015

The Orange Crush ad goes way, way back. But it's a good example of how promoters seize on a popular desire with emotional appeal and pitch their product accordingly

I consider "Bernie is the Real Deal" and related slogans to be exactly the same thing.

navarth

(5,927 posts)
91. Ah I see.
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 02:19 PM
Nov 2015

I remember Orange Crush from way back. It's ok for orange pop, but I'm not into pop anymore so....

Yeah "Bernie is the Real Deal" or "Ready For Hillary" they're all campaign slogans, it's just part of politics. I go by the candidate's history and quality more than clever sets of words. I guess they must be effective? Because they get used.

I try and ignore that part of it.

Take care

okasha

(11,573 posts)
98. Odd, though, that one of those slogans
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 02:53 PM
Nov 2015

touts a man who is, after all, a pretty average polirician, while the other says more about another candidate's supporters than about the candidate. The Man on a White Horse is a harder sell than it used to be, though. It hasn't't really worked since JFK.

navarth

(5,927 posts)
100. Sorry, I didn't quite follow what you said.
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 03:15 PM
Nov 2015

You might want to fix the spelling of politician there. Yeah it wasn't easy to sort out what you meant there, but I'm sure it was worthwhile. Slogans are slogans, right? I haven't really seen references to men or women on white horses, but I'm at work and I'm probably too distracted to get your meaning, sorry. My best to you.

 

Trajan

(19,089 posts)
28. Exactly my own position
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 11:34 AM
Nov 2015

There hasn't been a strong Progressive candidate since RFK ... Teddy would have been wonderful, but he never countered the Chappaquidick debacle ...

Tarc

(10,601 posts)
21. So, what is shows is no statistically significant change from 10-13-15 til now
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 11:14 AM
Nov 2015

Sanders' support has leveled off.

Simple math, folks.

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
24. Nice try! It suggests Sanders eclipsed the huge bump Clinton got when Biden decided against running
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 11:22 AM
Nov 2015

Tarc

(10,601 posts)
29. How does one "eclipse" something by remaining stagnant?
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 11:35 AM
Nov 2015

Sanders has hit his ceiling. If polls show him cracking 45%, then we'll talk.

 

Trajan

(19,089 posts)
30. Bernie up 3% points in two weeks .. Clinton is down 1%
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 11:38 AM
Nov 2015

I consider that to be 'statistically significant' ...

If Bernie continues to gain support at this rate, he will be in the 65% range in less than six months ...

Yeah ... You're right ... It's not significant ...

Hillary is safe ... Don't worry ... She's got this in the bag, right? ... Uh huh ...

Tarc

(10,601 posts)
31. I don't mean to sound snarky, but
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 11:42 AM
Nov 2015

do you know what the "margin of error" actually means? If it is at 3.1% (as stated in the source), then any % change 3% or under is not statistically significant.

 

Trajan

(19,089 posts)
33. That's ok ... Get it out ....
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 11:49 AM
Nov 2015

Your superior intellect can revel in my ignorance ...

Please celebrate Hillary's guaranteed future as President of the United States of America ...

I'll sit here, and count grains of sand, passing slowly through the hour glass ... Grain by grain ...

Nitram

(27,712 posts)
44. Trajan, you sound petulant and defensive.
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 12:37 PM
Nov 2015

Is an appeal to the mathematics of polling an unfair tactic?

Powers Hapgood

(57 posts)
37. Bernie can't lose!
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 12:09 PM
Nov 2015

Bernie is likely to get through the primaries as the all time top vote getting socialist in U.S. history . . . topping Debs . . . proving that there's life in the old ideas. Regardless of whether he wins the Democratic nomination, he's profoundly changed American politics. The trick will be to get more democratic socialists elected to office across the country, and build the movement to become a dominant force in the United States.

Nitram

(27,712 posts)
43. Let me get this straight. Do polls matter or not?
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 12:36 PM
Nov 2015

Bernistas believe in polls when Bernie's numbers go up, don't believe ion them when they go down.

Robbins

(5,066 posts)
49. they may still be flawed
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 12:42 PM
Nov 2015

depending how mmany indepednets they polled and how many under 45 they polled.

 

coyote

(1,561 posts)
45. This can't be true
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 12:37 PM
Nov 2015

All the polls say Hillary won the debate with 90% and that the polls have her leading by 50%, yet her numbers are dropping and Bernie's are rising.

Where are the Clinton poll lovers when you need them?

Nitram

(27,712 posts)
51. Right here, Coyote.
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 12:44 PM
Nov 2015

Let's see: Clinton is still ahead and Bernie's "jump" is statistically insignificant given the polls margin of error of 3.1%.

Powers Hapgood

(57 posts)
76. A bit of wisdom . . .
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 01:46 PM
Nov 2015

Take it from my college mentor who used to say: "Never believe anything until it's been officially denied." (Not sure how that works in this case, but thought it worth noting ).

yallerdawg

(16,104 posts)
52. I got a purty color picture of all the polls.
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 12:47 PM
Nov 2015

Looks like a good hold on Vermont..."but it's still early, and we still have time"!




Key:

Green - Hillary Clinton ahead, 31 states + 5 shared

Blue - Bernie Sanders ahead, 1 state + 5 shared

Grey - No polling data in last six months, 14 states & D.C

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
81. You should add "Blue/Green stripe" - Even.
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 01:58 PM
Nov 2015

A bit misleading as many of these states have had few polls and are mostly stale.

karynnj

(60,961 posts)
60. Both of the recent changes could just be noise
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 12:59 PM
Nov 2015

Obviously, their percents are negatively correlated. If there are other polls - all showing the same small changes in the same directions, it would be more believable. What it might counter is that the debate had much impact.

It will be more interesting to see whether Clinton's more aggressive ISIS position will have an impact -- or whether her hawkishness is already baked in OR that the Democrats, who we know are far more hawkish than DU, agree with her. This may especially be true as the alternative is NOT Obama's administration's position but O'Malley, who few have listened to yet, and Bernie.

Given the fact that DU is not in the inflamed mode of say September 2014 when Obama spoke of a limited targeted strike on Syria -- it might be that the political fight is one of "teams" and personalities -- as much as issues. If I saw more concern on DU, I might speculate that that speech would cause some to rethink HRC and look more closely at O'Malley and Sanders. I suspect though US politics is not that issue driven -- especially when people know that the circumstances will be different in January 2017 than now --- and we have no idea in what way.

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
79. Any single data point might be just "noise," but Clinton consistently polled in the upper 60s for
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 01:54 PM
Nov 2015

the first half of the year (until Sanders polling began to rise).

Then from the mid-summer to late September/early October, Clinton's polling consistently fell from the upper 60s to the mid-40s while Sanders' polling rose from zero to the mid-20s.

Since the beginning of October (which included a narrowing of the field), both Clinton and Sanders have each gained about 10% support.

These trends are more than noise, but they are national polling trends and so it is of limited relevance because there is not national primary day; instead, there is an Iowa caucus followed by a New Hampshire primary, and the results in all subsequent states have historically been affected by the results in Iowa and New Hampshire.

The more interesting trends to watch are in Iowa and New Hampshire:





The polls will most assuredly shift between now and the first votes, and this is a snapshot and not a prediction, but these trends are the most significant to watch.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
87. Both those graphs show things looking good for Hillary.
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 02:09 PM
Nov 2015

Not sure that was your intention.

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
99. Yes, they do. Not NEARLY as good as they looked for Hillary Clinton in 2007, but still quite good
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 03:06 PM
Nov 2015

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
102. Wow, some of you guys are really banking on history repeating itself.
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 04:02 PM
Nov 2015

Sorry but its just not likely at all. Bernie simply is not anything like the Obama sensation of 2007. Hard to believe that's not obvious.

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
103. Not at all. I fear history is repeating itself. Clinton's the front-runner; Sanders the underdog.
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 04:14 PM
Nov 2015

No doubt in my mind about that.

I worry that history is repeating itself and Clinton will collapse like she did in 2007-2008 but I fear that she will do so after she wins the nomination.

I think Sanders is a better candidate with a better plan to bring about a better American nation.

But if Sanders loses the nomination to Clinton, I certainly hope Clinton wins the general election.

I'm not banking on Clinton's collapse; I'm hoping Clinton's current campaign gets vetted to ensure either that we nominate Sanders or that we inoculate Clinton so she does not suffer a post-nomination collapse.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
104. Of course Hillary didn't lose the general election.. she wasnt in it. There is no history there.
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 04:24 PM
Nov 2015

Who knows how she would have done. Regardless, this time around things are clearly different. She is a much stronger experienced candidate now. Many of those supporting Obama back then are now Hillary supporters.. me included.

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
105. No she didn't lose the general election because her collapse came just in time for us to nominate
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 04:32 PM
Nov 2015

Obama.

I worry about history repeating itself in terms of Clinton's complete and total collapse but my special worry is her collapsing after winning the nomination.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
112. Now you are making up history.
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 05:46 PM
Nov 2015

She didnt have a complete and total collapse. She nearly won despite Obama the great. The caucus states beat her.

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
114. She folded like a cheap card table, but feel free to spin whatever revisionist tales you want to
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 05:56 PM
Nov 2015

tell yourself when you are alone in bed at night if it helps you sleep better.

Hillary Clinton "nearly won" in the same way that Howard Dean "nearly won."

Plus, in 2007, Hillary Clinton had high favorable polling numbers and low unfavorable polling numbers. This year -- no so much.

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
117. So ... "but for the democratic process, she would have been crowned in 2008?" But for Ronald Reagan
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 07:07 PM
Nov 2015

voters, Jimmy Carter would have won a second term.

But for the Republican leaning states, John Kerry would have won.

But for ... really?

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
120. Rick Santorum keeps saying that, too. Literally, if you were doomed to listen to his stump speeches,
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 08:11 PM
Nov 2015

you'd hear him repeat at every campaign stop that he nearly beat Romney for the nomination last time.

Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #117)

 

Too Old For B.S.

(10 posts)
68. What???!!!
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 01:16 PM
Nov 2015

It has me scratching my head that MY generation--the generation of protest, hippies, and anti-war expression--is favoring the Clintonista. WTF?!

 

Too Old For B.S.

(10 posts)
113. Yes, but....
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 05:51 PM
Nov 2015

Yeah, maybe, but I'VE gotten more radical! Watching all the dysfunction over the years has gotten me even deeper into my distrust/dislike of the status quo of the wealthy and government.

Nitram

(27,712 posts)
95. Because she's one of us in a pantsuit.
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 02:40 PM
Nov 2015

And we haven't fallen for 25 years of Republican smears of Clinton. Of course we are now having to put up with smears from Bernistas - the last one I read on DU called her a "corporate whore."

 

immoderate

(20,885 posts)
109. Consider that Bernie is the first feasible candidate in generations who is not a Reaganite.
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 05:24 PM
Nov 2015


--imm

Nitram

(27,712 posts)
124. Kerry was a Reaganite? Gore? Jerry Brown? George McGovern? Ted Kennedy?
Mon Nov 23, 2015, 02:17 PM
Nov 2015

A rather immoderate statement , to say the least.

And what about Lyndon LaRouche? (oh, right, feasible)

 

immoderate

(20,885 posts)
128. You got me. But it's close. McGovern is timed out of there. But was he feasible? (Really loved him.)
Mon Nov 23, 2015, 03:19 PM
Nov 2015

I should have said 'president' but that would have excluded Bernie. I was going for concision. I have the notion that most of those you cite did not go out of their way to denounce the Laffer Curve, and such. Jerry Brown might qualify. I'll plead the feasibility cop-out.

My main complaint here is that all the presidents, and most of the candidates showed a tolerance for supply side policies, that would be unsustainable. So call me hyperbolic.

--imm

Nitram

(27,712 posts)
125. There you go again.
Mon Nov 23, 2015, 02:18 PM
Nov 2015

Please list, in chronological order, the occasions on which Hilary Clinton supported legislation as a political favor to a donor.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
82. yes, steady progress for Hillary -- Sept 17 to Nov 15: Clinton +8 Sanders +4
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 02:02 PM
Nov 2015

Also shows amazing consistency for Hillary at around 50%

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
85. Hillary is showing amazing consistency at around 50%.
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 02:05 PM
Nov 2015

Cant lose if that is maintained.

 

fbc

(1,668 posts)
86. But can 50% be maintained once the elections start?
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 02:09 PM
Nov 2015

I guess that is the question.

Bernie's path to victory isn't polling higher than Clinton when the primaries start. It's being close enough that those first couple primary victories reveal him to be an electable candidate to the majority of democrats who aren't really paying attention yet.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
89. Well, yes but Iowa looks like a big win for Hillary.. unless you think the polls are bogus.
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 02:12 PM
Nov 2015

If she wins Iowa then NH which is close now will likely also go Hillary with a Iowa win boost. SC will be a blowout win for Hillary and Nevada looks good for Hillary as well.

Where does Bernie get any victory momentum??

Nitram

(27,712 posts)
96. Amazing how far you can go up when you start so low...
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 02:41 PM
Nov 2015

...and still not catch up.

Major Hogwash

(17,656 posts)
94. Just 2 months from now.
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 02:36 PM
Nov 2015

And then all of these polls will turn into votes at the polling booth.

Go Bernie!!!

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
108. Definitely plenty of time. In past primaries, they lead has flipped back and forth multiple times in
Fri Nov 20, 2015, 05:11 PM
Nov 2015

the months before the first caucus.

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