New Poll: Sanders Moves Ahead Of Clinton In Iowa

[hoosierlib]

Source: Talking Points Memo

Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-VT) has moved into the lead in Iowa over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, according to polling conducted by the American Research Group released Monday.

The polls showed Sanders’ support at 47 percent to Clinton’s 44 percent. Sanders held the same 47-44 lead over Clinton in a separate ARG poll of New Hampshire also released Monday.

In Iowa, where Clinton has mostly led in the polls, this is the first recent poll to place Sanders in the lead. This is the first ARG poll of the Iowa Democratic primary this cycle. Most polls taken throughout the fall have put him ahead in New Hampshire by a narrow margin. The last ARG poll of New Hampshire, Dec. 23, showed Clinton leading Sanders 46-43.

Nationwide polls give Clinton a comfortable lead, though closer now than in the summer when Sanders first surged. In Iowa and New Hampshire, however, Sanders has done better than nationally.

The Iowa poll surveyed 400 likely Democratic caucus-goers from January 6-10, with a margin of error of +/- 5%. Both were conducted using live telephone interviews. The New Hampshire ARG poll surveyed 600 likely Democratic voters from January 7-10, with a martin of error of +/- 4%.


Read more: http://talkingpointsmemo.com/polltracker/arg-january-dems-iowa-nh

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The second set of recent polls (in addition to the recent NBC/Marist polls) that show momentum is moving in Sanders' favor...can you feel it?

[Uponthegears]

1. It looks like

that while Hillary has been beating the bushes for endorsements, Bernie has been out beating the bushes for VOTERS.

Good news.

[sarge43]

2. While Hillary was shilling for money from the deep pockets, Senator Sanders

was talking with the voters about issues and problems. Funny how that works.

Bernin' it up.

[pangaia]

3. YES !!!!

[Plucketeer]

32. YES +

Yes Indeed!

Americans are deciding we need the CHANGE that BO only ever gave lip service to - a strategy that HRC has been replicating after having felt it's sting in '08. Sorry Hill - dumb bombs are now passe! We've got these new armaments called TRUTH & INTEGRITY. They eclipse desperately lobbed bombs like you won't believe - like you DON'T believe!

[earthside]

8. The endorsements backfire.

This was part of Mrs. Clinton's undoing in 2008, too.

The Clinton campaign uses these endorsements like a club ready to strike: get on board or else!

A lot of average caucus attendees and primary voters who are engaged enough to be involved have a natural reaction against this "you'll be left out and then where will you be?" approach.

Clinton uses endorsements to implant fear in voters; Sanders uses endorsements that come his way as messages of hope.

Endorsements can be helpful, especially if they come from grassroots or populist-type organizations.

Endorsements that smack of insider elites helping each other, like the Planned Parenthood Action Fund, tend to actually hurt, in my estimation.

The Sanders campaign is doing the endorsement thing just about right; Hillary, as usual, is doing it wrong and the polls are now showing it.

[Babel_17]

22. People who vote in a primary/caucus, take pride in the process

Even just the appearance of devaluing any part of the process can hurt. Support has to look unforced, organic, imo.

So, yeah, what you wrote about "a natural reaction against this" could be a driving force here. We'll see, and pretty soon.

[jonno99]

26. +1 Agree. nt

[Betty Karlson]

24. Interesting juxtaposition.

Thanks for that perspective.

[elmac]

4. Could this be the beginning of the end of the HRC run for president?

No, but it sure makes for a very interesting Primary run. Will support who ever makes it to the end, any Dem is far, far better then a fascist pig republican.

[pangaia]

5. Now the dirt will REALLY fly.

I would guess the Clinton campaign polling knew this would or was happening for a long time.


Hang in there Bernie. Stick to your guns and keep your cool !

[INdemo]

9. What do they have though? A vote cast 10 years ago that has been explained

by Sanders? If the Clinton campaign wants to start throwing dirt(I have different noun to use)
There is plenty out there using Hillary's own words and all those "I was for it before I was against it" speeches to show.

There are those that don't want to remember all those negatives the Clinton(Bill) campaign tried against Obama.How did that work out for Hillary?

[pangaia]

11. I'm with you all the way.

--maybe also I should not have said 'stick to your guns."

[Plucketeer]

33. Aw Shoot!

I took no offense by it!

[JonLeibowitz]

6. ARG was a pretty bad poll in 2012.

I'd rather wait to see what the Feb 1 polls say.

Hopefully the enthusiasm is real and very deep.

[INdemo]

12. Exactly

i think its real though. I would like to see a poll with about 1000(+) samplings

[CoffeeCat]

16. I was polled by Quinnipiac last week

They were specifically polling Iowans. Typical questions

Those results should be coming out very shortly. Their methodology seems very sound.

[INdemo]

17. Well good

I just have a very positive feeling about Iowa

[closeupready]

7. YES!!!

Go Bernie!!! K&R

[ucrdem]

10. I imagine there will be a lot of interest in Sunday's debate.

NBC, 9 pm ET.

[INdemo]

18. Cna you just imagine how DWS is scrambling to try some

Last edited Tue Jan 12, 2016, 01:04 PM - Edit history (2)

more "shit" that wont stick?

[jonno99]

27. Yep - it's pathetic and extremely frustrating...nt

[Plucketeer]

36. If our next glimpse of DWS

reveals her blonde locks have been straightened, we'll know she's been pulling at them in frustration.

[jonno99]

37. Ha! Funny.

[joeybee12]

13. Leave it to Talking Points Memo...

So tired of Bernie's one-note campaign.

[Duval]

14. Yes! I feel the Bern! Thanks for the post, hoosierlib.

[CoffeeCat]

15. Look at this bit of data in this poll--very important

According to this ARG poll, Bernie is beating Clinton with Iowa Independents by 14 points.

This is incredibly significant. Independents are the largest voting block in Iowa (42 percent of all Iowa registered voters).

It is routine in Iowa that Independents change their registration on caucus night (easily done in ten minutes, on-site before the caucus).

If Bernie is beating Clinton by 14% with Independents, this is a huge advantage in our state, and in the caucuses.

----------------------------
Likely Democratic Caucus-Goers
--------------------------------------Democrats (88%) No party (12%)

Clinton-------------------------------46%-----------------------30%
Sanders------------------------------46%-----------------------54%

[Samantha]

20. We always thought the Independents along with some Republicans would break for Sanders

although the MSM failed to mention that for some reason. But the numbers you report indicate that indeed is what is happening. The question remaining is by what margin will this happen. I am indeed feeling the Bern. Thanks for the info.

Sam

[CoffeeCat]

25. Bernie's cross-over appeal to Independents and Republicans

was discussed on Sunday night when Bernie met with the precinct captains. Bernie specifically asked us about Republicans and Indies and how they were responding on the phone and what they're comments were. Many chimed in to say that many Indies and some Rs were supporting Sanders.

There is definite cross-over appeal.

My favorite current challenge is a Republican in my precinct who still has a Fred Thompson bumper sticker on his car. He's always participated in the Iowa Republican caucuses, but this year he is aghast at the clown car his party is offering. He is incredibly traumatized and saddened and he said to me, "At least Bernie is honest. Bernie is a straight shooter. I may, for the first time ever caucus with the Democrats."

I am currently working on him, but treading lightly because he's truly in pain. I'm probably going to invite him and his wife for coffee and do a whole lot of listening. He's in my precinct and lives near me. One vote at a time...

[GummyBearz]

29. That is quite the effort you are putting in... thank you and keep up the good work. nt

[tex-wyo-dem]

21. Thanks for this tidbit, CofeeCat!

That is significant and could translate into larger shift towards Sanders when the votes are actually cast!

[Le Taz Hot]

19. Holy cow!

This day just keeps getting better and better!

[Betty Karlson]

23. Yes, I can feel it: the Bern!

Great news on top of the MoveOn endorsement!

[BeanMusical]

28. Kick and R

Great news!

[AzDar]

30. Bernie!!

[WillyT]

34. HUGE K & R !!! - THANK YOU !!!

[raindaddy]

35. Looks like Hillary's going to be the one asking for more debates!

[dorkzilla]

39. Already happened

This isn’t going to help her with people who already doubt her sincerity - -

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/hillary-clinton-calls-spirited-debate-bernie-sanders-race/story?id=36223002

[raindaddy]

46. She just gets worse and worse...

Thanks of the link!

[dorkzilla]

51. sure thing, daddy-o

I’m just channeling my inner beatnik

[pnwmom]

38. ARG has a C-minus rating by 538 for its reliability.

There are many pollsters rated A and A-. This one shouldn't be relied on no matter what your point of view.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/pollster-ratings/

Aside from that issue, the poll doesn't indicate a lead. Because the results are within the reported margin of error, it indicates a tie.

[ejbr]

40. You mean

He could be doing better?!

[pnwmom]

41. I mean ARG's results don't show a lead, there's still a tie --

anything within the margin of error is a tie -- and nothing done by ARG should be take seriously in the first place.

[ejbr]

43. But if they shouldn't be taken seriously

then indeed he could be doing better than whatever they are reporting.

[pnwmom]

44. He could be doing better or worse. She could be doing better or worse.

ARG isn't reliable.

[ejbr]

45. But probably better

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10141312049

[madokie]

47. Of course it shouldn't

its shows favorability towards Bernie so its not to be taken seriously.

You all make me Laugh, Pointing finger and rolling in the floor laughing my ass off, LOL

[pnwmom]

48. 538 gives it a C-minus overall, with dozens of pollsters scoring much higher. n/t

[madokie]

49. If I remember right

538 didn't do such a stellar job the last time around either.

I like the you pick and chose who is and who isn't to be taken seriously. To the point I have to laugh, LOL

[pnwmom]

53. 538 did far better than ARG. n/t

[Dawson Leery]

42. Hillary wins this time?!?

Since she was ahead in 2008 and lost to Obama. ARG has a reputation of getting things wrong.

[Odin2005]

50. The coronation has been postponed until further notice!

[Matthew28]

54. Great news

Sanders would be a far more serious candidate with taking on the super rich and on economic issues. He also beats Trump in the general!

[randys1]

52. ANY poll showing what AfAm will do as to Bernie vs Hillary, nationwide? Isnt

that what ALL of this comes down to?