New poll: Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders too close to call in Missouri

[Attorney in Texas]

Source: Kansas City Star

A new poll on the eve of the Missouri Democratic presidential primary shows the race ... stands at 47-46 percent with Hillary Clinton holding the slight advantage over Bernie Sanders.... Missouri’s primary Tuesday is open, meaning that any Missourian can vote in it, including independents.

Sanders fares far better among that group of voters, leading by a sizable 62-23 percent, PPP said.

Among Republicans, Sanders led 66-23 percent.

So who’s leading heading into Tuesday? Flip that coin in your pocket.



Read more: http://www.kansascity.com/news/local/news-columns-blogs/the-buzz/article65918962.html

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Actually, the Kansas City Star get's the poll backwards - it is Sanders who leads Hillary by 1% (47% to 46%).

[PWPippin]

1. Fantastic! Tomorrow is going to be a hard day and long night to get through.

[Vote2016]

2. kick & rec #5

[SmittynMo]

3. I can't wait.

My wife and I are both for Bernie and live in Missouri. Along with all the other people I know that support him that were never called for a poll, that should put Bernie over the top.

[Gregorian]

10. Yay!

[karynnj]

4. Clicking on your link, I was shocked how poorly Hillary did with the independents in all states

Now, the choice here is Sanders/Clinton and they are people who are opting to vote in the Democratic election, not the Republican, but it does suggest that retaining the Democratic leaning independents might be easier with Sanders as the nominee. This does NOT mean they would vote Republican in the general election if Clinton wins.

This might be because many independents are simply people who do not want to affiliate with a party -- and it seems the proportion in many states is that more are opting for a status of unaligned. I would make the conjecture (based on no data) that it more common for younger people to do this than older people. So, the split here might not be much more than younger liberals prefer Bernie overwhelmingly. I have not seen any analysis on who these "independents" are. It would be useful if some poll studied these people in more detail.

The question is how many of them are young liberals, who would almost certainly vote for Clinton in the general election and how many of them are more libertarian than liberal - and liked Sanders better than both all the Republicans running and Clinton.

[Loki]

8. Independents in most states vote Republican

and they love to act as spoilers in any primary, always have, especially in my state of Missouri. I've watched it many times, up close and personal.

[karynnj]

12. Not true - because given the % D, %R, % I -- if true, we would never win an election

Note for example that over half the voters in Massachusetts are non aligned -- yet it is far more likely that Democrats win Presidential or Congressional seats.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Massachusetts

In VT, EVERYBODY is non aligned, because you do not register by party. I can take a Democratic, a Progressive, or a Republican ballot in any primary here in Burlington. I know my daughter who opted to register in NJ when we lived there (while she was a college student in MA) registered as Independent. She is to the left of me and in fact registered in NJ because it was before the 2008 election and she thought Obama and Lautenberg were more likely to need votes than Obama and Kerry.

[Ed Suspicious]

18. False. People use their votes to select the candidate they best align with. Nobody but us political

junkies vote strategically (At least in my experience.). They usually don't pay close enough attention to even distinguish party affiliation of candidates or even know what that party differences would be if they did.

[WillyT]

5. HUGE K & R !!! - THANK YOU !!!

[Sunlei]

6. "flip that coin in your pocket". I wish Mrs. Clinton would take note & team-up to unify the party.

Even if she wins by a nose, almost half the D party didn't primary vote for her.

[Loki]

7. Win by a nose?

May I remind you of the Michigan results.........BS 49% Mrs. Clinton 48%. Independents in Missouri are mostly Republican and this is an open primary state. Many Trump voters are now turned off and have expressed a bigger desire to vote for her than for any other person in either party.

[Attorney in Texas]

11. LOL! Independents have not expressed a desire to vote for Hillary anywhere. They HATE her!

[Loki]

30. Excuse me, but you live in Texas.

I lived there for over 14 years in the North Houston area in Kingwood. I live in back in my home state of Missouri. I know many long time Republican's, one who knows my mother and is an ex military man. He has always voted for the Republican candidate, but he told her this year, he will vote Democratic for the first time in his life, and his vote will be for Hillary. You can laugh all you want to, but this is the Midwest, not Texas. Better yet, talk to my 23 year old son (a former BS supporter). He has been interested in politics since GBW was selected by the USSC. He was all Bernie, all the time when he first came out and started campaigning. I never influenced him one way or another, but he's a smart young man, and he realized just what this is all about. He no longer supports him, and he fits perfectly into Bernies demographic. So laugh all you want, there are people who actually think for themselves.

[Gore1FL]

14. The MI results was Bernie 20%+ over polling. That wasn't the result of independents.

That was the result of non "likely" voters hitting the polls.

[merrily]

25. From the OP: "Among Republicans, Sanders led 66-23 percent."

[Cryptoad]

33. That should tell ya everything u need to know!

[merrily]

37. Same ole, same ole GOP votes for Bernie bad; GOP votes Hillary, great;

At least try to make sense. Bernie is unquestionably liberal. Hillary never claimed to be. If Bernie can be unabashedly liberal and still attract Republican votes, that's fantastic. If the only way Hillary can attract them is by going right, that's horrible.

[Gregorian]

9. Too close to call, unless you look at the dynamics.

They aren't tied; the snapshot just caught Bernie as he was passing her.

It looks close unless one realizes the gap came from 20 points down just a short time ago.

[dchill]

13. I like your snapshot!

[retrowire]

31. yep.

Polls are only snapshots, not current states.

[wcmagumba]

15. No poll for me...

No pollster called me....I'll be "Berning" in MO tomorrow....

[Svafa]

35. Same here!

[KPN]

16. Wonder if Bill will show up at key polling places

just for kicks like he did in MA?

[Betty Karlson]

17. Great news!

But I am holding hope out for a few Michigan-like "upsets". Just because Clinton deserves to be trounced after worshipping at the altar of Nancy the Patron Saint of Viral Loads.

[EV_Ares]

19. I can say with absolute 100% certainty that Bernie will be getting two votes tomorrow from my wife

& myself. Even our cat wants to go & vote for Bernie. However, our cat is a Socialist.

[ejbr]

21. If your cat wants Bernie,

then she is purrrrefect!

[EV_Ares]

27. LOL, yeah she does & she has even changed her meow to Bernie, Bernie.

Thanks for the post, they talk about no excitement for Dems this year & our voting is down. Actually, we are pretty excited about this year & the stronger Bernie gets, naturally the more exciting this election comes.

[merrily]

26. I've said before and I'll say it again: the left fails to unite.

[ejbr]

20. I knew you could

play pocket pool, but you can also flip coins there?!

[LongTomH]

22. I've been doing Get-Out-The-Vote canvassing every weekend here in Kansas City

I'll be out tomorrow as long as I can.

[Moostache]

23. Saw a homemade sign for Bernie on an Interstate overpass this AM...

Made my morning!

Was running late for work this morning and feeling surly (time change Monday is the WORST!!!)...and there it was on the overpass of I-270 North and Manchester Road (West St. Louis County for those familiar with the region)...

A homemade sign calling for support for Bernie!

Put a smile on my grumpy face that is still there!

[Tiggeroshii]

24. High turnout means Sanders wins. Low turnout means Clinton wins.

GET OUT THE MOTHERUCKING VOTE

[jillan]

28. Amen to that!

[Land of Enchantment]

29. LOL nt

[-none]

32. Democrats win when there is a high voting turnout.

[oberliner]

34. With minority voters it's the reverse of that

If there is high turnout among non-white voters then Clinton will do well.

Non-white voters (especially African-Americans) have been Hillary's strongest voter demographic thus far.

[Tiggeroshii]

36. Everybody voting is good for Bernie.

The AA vote is starting to see a split in it with Jesse Jackson's endorsement. He is already winning the Latino vote in a landslide

[Attorney in Texas]

41. As we move out of the Bible Belt, we'll see that Sanders wins progressive African American votes and

Hillary will continue to win the centrist, establishment, status quo African American votes.

Contrary to Hillary's race-defined campaign, Sanders is running an ideological defined campaign. Hillary's assumptions about the uniformity of the views within the African American communities will be debunked.

[oberliner]

46. In Massachusetts, Clinton won among self-described liberals and Bernie won among moderates

Though it was fairly close in both cases.

Clinton won among non-whites by a healthy margin.

In Michigan (another non-Bible Belt state), Clinton won among African-American voters by 40 percentage points.

[Attorney in Texas]

47. So we agree that the margins with African American voters is vastly different in the Bible Belt.

[oberliner]

49. Yes we do

The margins of victory in the southern states for Hillary among African-American voters were generally 80-20 or even higher.

Outside of the south, Hillary still consistently outperforms Bernie among non-white voters, though by smaller margins.

[Attorney in Texas]

54. Why do you keep referring to "non-white voters" when discussing results outside the Bible Belt? What

racial demographic is Hillary carrying outside of the Bible Belt other than African Americans?

Is she winning Arabs outside of the Bible Belt? Not apparently.

Is she winning Asians outside of the Bible Belt? Not apparently.

Is she winning Hispanics outside of the Bible Belt? Not apparently.

Is she winning Indians outside of the Bible Belt? Not apparently.

Is she winning Native Americans outside of the Bible Belt? Not apparently.

Is she winning Whites outside of the Bible Belt? Not apparently.

Imposing an artificial racial grid over a progressive/not-progressive divide (or Bible Belt/not-Bible Belt divide) is not helpful.

[oberliner]

55. The exit polls for Massachusetts used that term

The numbers of African-American, Latino, Asian, and other voters of color were not large enough individually to be able to yield statistically significant survey data, so they were grouped together under the heading of "non-white voters" where they represented 15 percent of the voting total, making for statistically significant data.

Generally speaking, African-American voters make up a much larger percentage of the voter base in the Democratic primaries than those other groups that you listed.

The majority of the primaries thus far have been in states in the south which have large African-American populations and Hillary has done exceedingly well among that population.

Similarly, in Texas, the state with the largest Latino population thus far, Hillary did very well among that group also.

It will be interesting to see if Bernie is able to win the African-American and Latino vote in the upcoming primaries. That would certainly support the claim that Hillary's strength among those groups is limited to the south (although her success among non-white voters in Michigan and Massachusetts would belie that claim).

[oberliner]

44. Bernie is winning the Latino vote in a landslide?

What is your evidence for this claim?

Do you think Bernie will win the Latino vote in Florida?

[Attorney in Texas]

51. I never said Sanders was winning any racial group by a landslide - I said it is an ideological and

not a racial divide that separates the supporter bases for the two candidates.

I do not expect that the progressive Jewish civil rights leader from Brooklyn via Vermont is going to do all that well in the Bible Belt (including Florida).

Outside of the Bible Belt, I am confident Sanders is winning and will continue to win. The only point of debate in my mind is whether Sanders' victory in the 37 states outside of the Bible Belt is big enough to overcome Hillary's win in the 13 Bible Belt states.

We'll see.

So far, Sanders is getting crushed in the Bible Belt and Sanders is crushing Hillary (9 states to 3) outside of the Bible Belt. I agree that Hillary is a very strong regional candidate in the Bible Belt, but I see little evidence that Hillary is a viable national candidate.

I guess we'll see.

[oberliner]

53. My response was to a different poster who did make that claim

See above (post #36). That is the post to which I was responding.

[Tiggeroshii]

56. Seen polls that have shown a substantial lead. I do think he could win

the Latino vote in Florida. I've seen polls both ways though, so we will just see what the exit polls say.

[Tiggeroshii]

58. Early exit polls show he is winning Illinois Hispanic voters with 68%

Haven't seen any for other states though

[Attorney in Texas]

39. when you say "especially African-Americans," don't you mean "only African-Americans"

Bernie Sanders Most Popular Candidate Among Asian-Americans

Feeling the Bern; Support Grows For Sanders in Indian Country

Sanders won in Arab Muslim-majority areas of Dearborn

[oberliner]

43. No

Latino voters also tend to favor Hillary, though not by as large a margin as African-American voters.

This is true more so in primaries than caucuses where Bernie is uniformly stronger.

In the Texas primary, Hillary got around 70 percent of the Latino vote.

[Attorney in Texas]

45. We certainly agree Hillary is beating the Jewish Progressive in the Bible Belt. I see no evidence

that, outside of the 13 states that share the Dixiecrat heritage, to suggest that Hillary performs better than Sanders among any racial or ethnic minority aside from African Americans.

Personally, I do not think that this is a racial issue but a cultural issue that has more to do with embracing progressivism based on age demographics more than racial demographics.

[oberliner]

48. Also in Massachusetts and Michigan

She won the African-American vote in Michigan, for example, by 40 points.

It is pretty much an indisputable fact that Hillary pretty consistently does better than Bernie within this demographic for whatever reason.

Certainly that can change, and it would be great for Bernie's chances if it did. But to this point, the numbers are what the numbers are.

[Cavallo]

50. Thank you. I have great hope for the Latino vote. I'm glad to see over half going for Bernie.

[joanbarnes]

38. Lamestream media (Fox-local) reports Quinnipiac poll showing Clinton ahead in two states----

THAT MEANS BERNIE IS AHEAD IN THE THREE OTHER STATES!: (Crickets-no mention of that.)

[democrattotheend]

59. Sadly, no

I looked up the Quinnipiac poll you mentioned and they only polled Ohio and Florida. Clinton was leading in both. IL, MO and NC were not polled.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

40. someone will be misery-able tomorrow,

and I suspect it will not be Bernie.

[tabasco]

42. Missouri's going for Sanders

These polls don't reach a lot of people who will be pulling levers for Sanders.

[WhiteHat]

52. No coin flip necessary.

Bernie is the people's choice wherever and whenever the people are truly permitted a choice by GOP state legislators.

[Dont call me Shirley]

57. Get out and vote for Bern, MO!