Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball portends a potential Democratic blowout presidential election

[Cryptoad]

This discussion thread was locked as off-topic by one_voice (a host of the Latest Breaking News forum).

Source: AL Today

University of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato latest “Crystal Ball” prediction of the 2016 presidential election spells gloom for the Republican Party this November.

The longtime political analyst is predicting that if it’s a Hillary Clinton–Donald Trump matchup, it will be an electoral college blowout, 347-191.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball is a weekly online political newsletter and website that analyzes American politics. In the new column, written by Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrey Skelley, the authors acknowledge that while it’s an “extra-early, ridiculously premature projection” that could change after the conventions and a possible third-party candidacy. However at the moment, the electoral map doesn’t look very competitive for the GOP going into November.

Nearly a year ago, Sabato put Florida into the “toss-up” column, but no longer.

Now the Sunshine State is being put into the same bucket of other swing states like Virginia, Ohio, New Hampshire, Nevada, Iowa and Colorado. The Sabado Crystal Ball has now moved all seven states from “toss-up” last May, to now “leaning Democratic.”

Read more: http://altoday.wpengine.com/?p=9654

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wow,,, that must choke the Right wing Alabama Today to have to report this.

[brooklynite]

1. Unless I'm mistaken, this is basically Obama 2008....

...with some vulnerabilities for further losses by the GOP in GA and AZ

[upaloopa]

7. I remember November 2008 and I think I will be just as happy in November 2016

Hopefully we have a Dem Congress as icing on the cake.

Then we rebuild the Supreme Court.

I really think we have the wind in our sails

[Bjornsdotter]

2. I don't believe

...Trump will be the nominee.

My worth nothing opinion is it will be Ryan/Kasich.

[MynameisBlarney]

5. Ryan?

Didn't he say he wasn't interested?

Or am I imagining things again?

[Bjornsdotter]

6. I believe he did say that

....whether or not it holds at the convention

[MynameisBlarney]

9. Good point.

Only time will tell.

[Dopers_Greed]

8. He did, but...

He also wasn't interested in becoming speaker of the house.

I don't see any of the current Repug candidates getting the nomination though, so we'll see what happens.

[MynameisBlarney]

10. I thought RMoney

was clumsily dropping hints that he is interested.

[Bjornsdotter]

12. He is almost begging for it

....but I don't think it will happen.

[LyndaG]

11. The old "Stop it - I love it" routine

He's certainly played that card before.

[0rganism]

15. his "disinterest" adds cred with the anti-government crowd

"i am so disinterested in this donut, i barely recognize its existence, with its shiny sprinkles and delectable jelly filling. not interested at all, really. nice chocolate glaze there. completely uninterested, couldn't give less of a shit."

[Cosmocat]

17. Most likely not Trump

but I don't think Ryan ...

1) He is speaker of the house, the second most powerful position in the country. He has a LONG career there and in the House ahead of him, so I am not sure he would give it up to MAYBE win POTUS this early on ...

2) Even if he would be so inclined, its a TOUGH sell for the electorate to bring someone in who did not go through the primaries at all, when there were over a dozen other candidates, did not win a single vote or delegate in this election, and nominate him. They are going to lose Trump supporters for decades if they do it, if they also jilt Cruz, they will lose his voters, too.

IMO, if they do this, they pretty much have to do with Cruz ...

[Bjornsdotter]

23. Fair enough

...also no matter who they replace Trump with I think they will loose the Trump supporters. I don't see the majority of Trump supporters going for Cruz.

As I said in my first post....only my opinion.

[geek tragedy]

19. Why would Ted Cruz stand for that?

A lot of Trump's delegates at the convention will be Ted Cruz fans, if it gets past a first ballot, second ballot will go to Cruz, not Kasich or another white knight figure

[Bjornsdotter]

22. Because Ted Cruz

....has little support among his peers. The outside support may not be available to him.

[geek tragedy]

24. his peers don't vote, the delegates do.

and he's been quietly organizing at the state convention level to make sure his people get appointed as delegates not only for himself, but for Trump.

So, on the first ballot they'll *probably* be bound to vote for Trump, but on the second ballot Trump will lose votes to Cruz.

Cruz acts like a crazy moron, but he's smart and cunning.

[Bjornsdotter]

25. Many of his peers are delegates

....and they do vote.

As I said in my first post...it is my worth nothing opinion. Seriously, if I were betting I'd take a long shot over even money.

[YOHABLO]

29. OY VEY!

[Bjornsdotter]

31. Mazel tov!

[MynameisBlarney]

3. I think no matter who is nominated

on either side, it's gonna be a big win for the Dems.

[LyndaG]

4. Never been a fan of his

But, I hope he's right !!!!!

[obamanut2012]

13. Sabato is legit

A bit of a tool IRL, but legit.

[Jemmons]

14. A big GOP fight at the convention + half of GOP voters pissed off

Even if they force the issue and install someone like Ryan, it will be a bloodbath come november. Looking good!

[Cosmocat]

18. IMO

it will be a longer term problem for them if they take it from Trump.

They stick with him, they take a beating this election ... then the completely deranged jackass wing gets back into the fold.

They jilt the Donald, they won't have 1/3 of their voters for decades.

[AllyCat]

16. Nice!! Keep up the good work Dems!

Get people registered and to the polls. Knock doors, call people, invite friends and family.

[Botany]

20. I always liked this one from 1964

LBJ showed a tv spot w/Bill Miller's daughter ... stephanie miller ... and the rest is history

BTW w/Trump as the nominee they could lose Texas .... Hispanics and Women don't like Trump

[houston16revival]

21. Trump-Perry '16

will be the greatest Tea Party ever

when we throw them overboard

[Person 2713]

26. That's the combo of failure right there!

[LynneSin]

28. You put Julian Castro on the ticket I think Texas is in serious play

A Texan who is also Hispanic and parents of Mexican Immigrants. That would be a total boon for the Democrats plus the guy has all-around great political record and could one day make a great president!

[YOHABLO]

30. Take a look at the South. And just guess what legislation turned that region red.

[LynneSin]

27. Whomever wins, Hillary or Bernie, they need to pick great VP that will appeal to the voters

And no, I do not think it should be a Hillary/Bernie or Bernie/Hillary ticket. Both democratic candidates are older and I think both of them need a younger VP. Since both Hillary and Bernie have experience they can go young with their VP Candidate (Obama was weak on experience and needed an older statesman like Biden to balance his ticket).

My top #2 choices for VP would be either Julian Castro from Texas or Cory Booker from New Jersey.

I think one thing that hurt us in 2000 and 2004 was the boring VP Candidates on the Democratic Ticket. Neither Gore nor Kerry had that charisma to bring out the occasional voter. By picking Lieberman (Gore) and Edwards (Kerry), they didn't add anything to the ticket.

In this day and age you need at least one candidate on that ticket that will appeal to a cross-section of voters. Castro would appeal to the Hispanic Voters and Booker to the African-American voters. And both of those men are extremely qualified to be VP and possibly President one day. I'm not sure how Cory Booker's single status would play out as VP although he is a good-looking man so that might help too, but some might play against his lack of family.

[one_voice]

32. Locking...

It is the consensus of the hosts this doesn't meet SoP for LBN. It's better suited for GD. Please re-post there. Thanks.

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