Poll: Clinton, Trump 'dead even' in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania

[NeoConsSuck]

Source: USA Today

It's still early to analyze the general election, but a new poll shows Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in a dead heat in three key swing states: Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

The Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released Tuesday has Clinton up by a single point in both Florida (43%-42%) and Pennsylvania (43%-42%), while Trump leads Clinton in Ohio by 43%-to-39%

"Six months from Election Day, the presidential races between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in the three most crucial states, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, are too close to call," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll.

Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders, by the way, has narrow leads over Trump in all three pivotal states.

Read more: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/05/10/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-quinnipiac-poll-florida-ohio-pennsylvania/84173448/

[Biaviians]

1. Hillary's polls only go in one direction.

[ericson00]

2. why does Quinnipiac not show the partisan breakdown on its poll?

to hide the GOP oversample they've been doing since campaign '16 began?

https://www.qu.edu/images/polling/ps/ps05102016_Sw4b42d.pdf

[former9thward]

22. They don't hide it.

It is right at your link.

OHIO

REGISTERED VOTERS
PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Republican 30%
Democrat 29
Independent 34
Other/DK/NA 7

And if they were hiding it how do you know they have been oversampling GOP? Because you don't like the results? What does your polling company show?

[Gomez163]

26. Independent = GOP

[former9thward]

27. What does your polling company show?

[Gomez163]

38. That Hillary is awesome and anyone that doesn't like her sucks??

Its been poll tested.

[FBaggins]

29. Since when?

???

[Gomez163]

35. An indie is just a hipster Republican.

[FBaggins]

40. Sorry. That's nonsense.

They split almost 50/50 in the last election and leaned farther left in 2008.

More relevant for this thread... they didn't swing the results of the poll.

[truebluegreen]

41. Oh bullshit. I'm an indie

have never been a Republican and am very far from being a hipster.

What a steaming pile.

[Gomez163]

49. I have no respect for independents. Either you're with us or against us.

[truebluegreen]

52. Oh OK then. With whom?

Pray be precise...and btw "with the Democrats" isn't. Anyone can call himself a Democrat, like say Rahm Imanuel or Joe Lieberman. So, please!, define your terms so I can earn your respect. It is very important to me.

[Gomez163]

53. Either you're with Hillary or you might as well be a dittohead.

There is no middle ground. The only thing in the middle of the road are dead armadillos.

[truebluegreen]

55. Such a clever line: dead armadillos. Did you make that up yourself?

Shows as much depth as the rest of your posts. Buhbye.

[TipTok]

67. How utterly conformist and lacking in any intellectual rigor...

Hillary thanks her lucky stars for folks like you every day.

[still_one]

56. This is why your point may be valid in this case. There was a question in all three states if they

supported voter IDs. In all three states, it indicated they did. Voter ID is not an issue with Democrats, but is an issue with republicans. So I would not be surprised that some of those that identified themselves as independents, are actually republicans.

[frylock]

44. This post = Bullshit

[TipTok]

66. Cause you say so?

Do you fight with the same fervor when they release a poll you do like?

[still_one]

54. ericson, I question the Quinnipiac polling just based on the fact that Hillary won Ohio, Florida,

and Pennsylvania primaries by large amounts. In addition, the total number of votes Hillary has won in primaries over Trump is over 2 million, and the number of total votes Hillary has won over Sanders is 3 million.

Something does not sync up. What I am listing is how people actually voted in the primaries, and those act as a control.

Also, I wonder how many Sanders supporters would identify themselves as an independent, and not a Democrat

Bottom line is that I question the sampling

[Funtatlaguy]

3. What is wrong with America?

Seriously.
Hard to fathom.

[fbc]

9. Our democracy has been replaced by oligarchy.

[tabasco]

20. Just like Jimmy Carter said.

Bubba Clinton played ball with the billionaire class and his reward will be a new lease in the White House for him and his wife.

[DCBob]

4. Although this is a bit surprising I suspect Trump got a bump from Cruz and Kasich dropping out.

Hillary will likely get a similar bump when Bernie drops.

[rpannier]

7. You're probably right

I think Quinnipac is usually pretty accurate
It's early and as I recall Obama was shown to be struggling against rMoney 4 years ago about this time as well in several states he ultimately won (and won fairly easily)
I'll worry if this shows up in late September and early October

[Loudestlib]

5. Not too worry.

Plenty of Hillary supporters on this board have told me that my vote is not needed and Hillary has this election in the bag. I believe them.

[Doctor Jack]

48. Send me a link of that post

I want to read it

[Darb]

6. Hillary will win Florida handily.

Ohio a bit closer, and Pennsylvania in a rout.

[Lochloosa]

11. And I thought Rick Scott would never be my Governor.....twice.

[bigworld]

8. She'll make a good president, but she's an awful candidate

... she needs to improve, and quickly.

[Gene Debs]

14. Actually, she'd make an awful president. The very last thing this country needs is

more of the status quo—and if you took the status quo and put a pantsuit on it, you'd have Hillary Clinton.

[HomerRamone]

10. Florida and Ohio

the states Republicans love to steal when it's close

[CrowCityDem]

12. Sanders is basically the same, despite his 'favorables' and facing NO attacks. How's that?

[pmorlan1]

13. They Showed This Polling Info

on CBS this morning.

[disillusioned73]

15. Here on the ground in PA..

not a good feel for Hillary. Polls are just confirming that reality..

[I Bought the Law]

21. How does one measure ground feel?

[disillusioned73]

23. I'm old enough to remember elections dating back to Clinton Part I..

it's not scientific, but gauging by the last 2 elections (that were won by the Democratic candidate) I can temper the local feel for a candidate, and the total lack of passion FOR Hillary in my region compared to those elections is very real and noticeable.. JMO - but PA may be in play.. but, she isn't the candidate yet - so we'll see..

Looking at the PA GE in 2004 Kerrys small margin (less then 150,000) is also concerning.. because of the lack of passion on the left and the fever pitch anti-Hillary from the right might just make for this state a bit more interesting come this November..

[link:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Pennsylvania,_2004|

[HooptieWagon]

32. I don't think she takes FL either.

Obama barely squeaked out victories in 2008 and 2012. Hillary will pull in far fewer votes.

[Doctor Jack]

50. Of course, that's just science right there

Hillary will pull in far fewer votes.

It is an immutable fact. One must not question or argue with this. It is already so

[HooptieWagon]

51. Will she get the youth vote Obama did?

No.
Will she get the independant vote Obama did?
No.
Will AAs turn out in same numbers for her as Obama?
No.
Will the left wing of the party vote for her as they did Obama?
No.

She is courting support from Republicans, but it's doubtfull she can make up all the votes lost. She'll get far fewer votes than Obama.

[Doctor Jack]

57. Will she get the Asian vote

No

Will she get the Canadian vote

No

Will she get the cat vote

No

Will she get the hobgoblin vote

No


See I agree with you. Well argued

[Doctor Jack]

46. You dig a hole anywhere in Pennsylvania

Climb inside, have a loved one bury you alive and and if you hear the earth murmur the name of the Republican candidate for president, you will know who is going to win the general. Or there will be 6 more weeks of winter. It's kind of a toss up

[ViseGrip]

16. And it shows Bernie winning!!! Why is that not in the OP?

[TeddyR]

17. The OP

States that Bernie has narrow leads in all three states.

[Doctor Jack]

59. He will be the nominee

Just wait for that indictment...*checks watch*...any second now

[TeddyR]

18. As a Sanders supporter but a Democrat first and foremost

This poll is shocking. It confirms (once again) that national polls really don't matter. You have to win the states to win the election, and a general national poll isn't particularly predictive. Ohio perhaps doesn't surprise me as much as Pennsylvania and Florida, but if Hillary isn't doing well in those states I can't imagine Virginia, Colorado or North Carolina (for example) will be much better. She needs to get her act together. Hopefully Trump will continue to insert foot in mouth.

[whereisjustice]

19. All those pragmatic centrist moderates think its a great idea to run a toxic Hillary

foolishly applauding the rise of Trump.

Trump's success is a product of a vacuum of representation and leadership for the middle class and below.

Clinton's success is due to her willingness to trade principals, values and voters for cash from the 1% and war for the defense industry.

We could have found a better candidate. The money grubbing DNC - our corporate mother, thought it better to sell us out to Wall Street.

[nolabels]

61. Often a strength can become a weakness

You state:

"Clinton's success is due to her willingness to trade principals, values and voters for cash from the 1% and war for the defense industry. "

In the G.E. that will be used by Trump as pounding point to lure independents. Not that Trump has any real morals, but those who might be listening might think they have them. Trump is not getting there by accident, he is feeding them the bullshit they want to hear (even if it's just more lies packaged in different way)

[Doctor Jack]

24. Nate Silver has a lot to say about these polls from today

https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

[Attorney in Texas]

25. Anyone who is the least bit surprised by this has been hiding in a cave for the past 6 months. It is

not by chance that Trump bested Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, John Kasich, George Pataki, Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, and Scott Walker.

Trump's greatest asset has been his opponents' underestimating the appeal of his campaign, and Hillary is a world-class underestimater of her opponents.

[Doctor Jack]

33. Or maybe state polls mean very little this far out

But if people want to wring their hands and give themselves an ulcer over these largely meaningless polls, that is their right

[Attorney in Texas]

36. That argument stopped playing when Trump became the presumptive nominee. State hypothetical head-to-

head polls mean little when neither party has a presumptive nominee, but now they need to be credited.

[Doctor Jack]

39. Citation needed

Forgive my ignorance, I'll need a source please.

[LonePirate]

62. Anyone who thinks these polls foretell anything about November has not been paying attention.

First off, these polls over sampled Repubs and under sampled Dems. They over sampled white voters and under sampled minority voters. Second, polls from 2008 and 2012 around this time show how unreliable they are. Last, these polls are from the polling organization with the worst track record so far in 2016.

There is not a single reason to place any faith in these polls which redefine what a junk poll is.

[ffr]

28. Just means democrats will need to work harder to GOTV in 2016

Don't take any state or contest for granted. Get democrats to the polls.

[Vinca]

30. If this doesn't scare the shit out of you, nothing will.

[Doctor Jack]

37. I heard the sky is falling

We may be in the end times. One set of polls 6 months before the election when the candidates aren't even in place yet. Surely a prophecy of doom. Get your affairs in order, few of us will survive this Quinnipiac poll

[Vinca]

45. Let me guess . . . head-in-the-sand Clinton supporter?

Sgt. Schultz must be your hero: "I see nothing."

[Doctor Jack]

47. People rolling around on the ground talking about Sgt Schultz

That is one of the 7 signs of the apocalypse

[Skittles]

63. you win Doctor Jack!

[Vinca]

68. One of the other signs is President Trump.

[FBaggins]

31. Obama won PA by ten points in 2008 even though Clinton beat him in the primary

I think it was closer to 6% in 2012.

If PA is even close to being in play... we have problems.

[Doctor Jack]

43. Exactly

President Romney was ahead at this point in 2012 in Pennsylvania and he went on to crush Obama in the general.

[tabasco]

58. Citation needed.

Source required.

Here, I'll help you out. YOU'RE WRONG.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/pa/pennsylvania_romney_vs_obama-1891.html#polls

[Doctor Jack]

60. My mistake

Obama barely led in Pennsylvania at this point in 2012, much like Clintons small lead today. I guess we are going to lose in November. Abandon all hope. Can someone loan me a gun and a single bullet? If the situation is only nearly the same as 2012 then I don't want to live on this mortal plane anymore.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/trump-clinton-florida-ohio-pennsylvania-222994


Maybe we can talk about mccain 10 point lead in Pennsylvania in late April 2008 or Obama 2 point lead in late may 2008?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_mccain_vs_obama-244.html#polls

[TwilightZone]

34. WaPo is questioning their demographics data, as it Nate Silver

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/10/a-new-poll-shows-trump-beating-clinton-in-ohio-but-it-assumes-a-pretty-white-electorate/

Another poster posted the link to Silver's comments above.

[Doctor Jack]

42. But that doesn't fit the narrative

Don't try to bring math and logic into this. We are doomed, did you hear? Now until you agree that thsee are the end times, I'm going to have to ask you to leave

[olddad56]

64. I wish the headline had said "Trump dead, even in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania."

[Angel Martin]

65. Reuters tracking poll also

showing movement towards Trump
http://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/TM651Y15_13/filters/LIKELY:1/type/smallest/dates/20160201-20160510/collapsed/true/spotlight/1

[agracie]

69. K&R

[Lodestar]

70. A race to the bottom....who will win? n/t

[BlueStater]

71. Both of these presumptive nominees are about as popular as herpes.

What a depressing election.

[0rganism]

72. probably more fallout from the coal remarks

damn, that was a stupid thing to say, and it's gonna show up in more than 1 attack ad as the GE campaign continues

i've had some really high hopes for this election, and Hillary's already started trashing them. she'd better get it together pronto or we're going to have to survive under il Douche for 8 long years.

W43 was by far the worst president in my lifetime (which goes back to Nixon). Trump45 is going to be much much worse.

i can see it now at the next Trump rally: "HAVE YOU SEEN MY POLL NUMBERS IN OHIO, PENNSYLVANIA AND FLORIDA? WE'RE KICKING HER ASS, SEVERELY! SHE'S COMPLETELY CROOKED AND INCOMPETENT. LOOK AROUND PEOPLE, LOOK IN A MIRROR, YOU ARE ALL AWESOME, AND TOGETHER WE'RE GOING TO WIN, AND WIN, AND WIN SOME MORE. YOU'RE GOING TO GET TIRED OF WINNING."



and it's going to go on and on and on like that for 8 fucking years, because HRC went off her carefully-prepared script.