Exclusive: Trump surges in support, almost even with Clinton in national U.S. poll

[kadaholo]

Source: REUTERS by | BY Chris Kahn

Donald Trump's support has surged and he is now running nearly even with Democrat Hillary Clinton among likely U.S. voters, a dramatic turnaround since he became the Republican party's presumptive presidential nominee, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Wednesday.

The results could signal a close fight between the two likely White House rivals as Americans make up their minds ahead of the Nov. 8 election to succeed Democratic President Barack Obama. As recently as last week, Clinton led Trump by around 13 points in the poll.

In the most recent survey, 41 percent of likely voters supported Clinton, the Democratic front-runner, and 40 percent backed Trump, with 19 percent not decided on either yet, according to the online poll of 1,289 people conducted from Friday to Tuesday. The poll had a credibility interval of about 3 percentage points.

The results reflect a big increase in support for Trump since he knocked out U.S. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas and Ohio Governor John Kasich last week to become the last Republican in the White House race. There was no immediate comment from the Clinton or Trump campaigns.

Read more: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN0Y21TN

[CanonRay]

1. Media wants horserace; Media announces horserace.

I call bullshit.

[7962]

2. Perfectly stated. nt

[Angel Martin]

6. another "outlier" poll i guess

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_51016.pdf

[Attorney in Texas]

8. Thanks for unskewing this for us.

[Yo_Mama]

11. It's a poll of likely voters. More meaningful than registered voters, but not very reliable now.

The same poll has been showing Clinton strongly ahead, so this is a turnaround. Will it last? Who knows.

It isn't, however, made up. It's a real poll.

[CanonRay]

23. I don't get where these numbers are coming from

Trump is getting killed with women, Hispanics, Blacks, anybody under 40. Even married white women, usually fairly reliable R voters. So just who the hell is getting polled...?

[PatrickforO]

26. Unfortunately, people dislike Clinton almost as much.

And distrust her.

I have fervently supported Sanders because I genuinely don't believe Clinton cares at all about me, my family or our kitchen table issues. I think she's excessively corrupt even in the corrupt pile of shit we call Washington DC.

[ailsagirl]

25. Same here

Drumpf is probably the most-hated candidate ever, yet he's "surging in the polls?"

Don't believe it.

[Nyan]

28. I'm afraid you're in denial.

[doc03]

3. I've been saying for weeks now these polls showing Democrats having a lock

on the electoral college is bullshit. I am seeing Trump signs pop up like dandelions the last week or so. I have
seen several people wearing Trump shirts and hats. Have not seen one from Hillary or Bernie. I don't think it
will even be a horserace more of a walk.

[silvershadow]

5. I have been saying for many months that DWS was prepared to snatch defeat from

the jaws of victory.

[WhoWoodaKnew]

9. I agree. People here are fooling themselves if they think this is a lock.

Trump knows how to work a crowd.

[doc03]

10. I don't know maybe Bernie would do better but I don't give Hillary

Clinton much of a chance. The polls show Bernie doing better but I fear once he would become the nominee
the Republicans would cut him up pretty easy. I don't know how Hillary can defend her vote on Iraq, the
mess in Libya and all crap Bill Clinton left us with.

[Yo_Mama]

13. It's more that Sanders has a better upside, and a much longer political history.

Obviously the general election will be more than a little weird.

What Sanders has to offer is credibility; Sanders has been very consistent throughout his long political career. He is not vulnerable to attack on authenticity or ethics.

Sanders will be able to place his message before the electorate for what it is, and let the voters decide whether they prefer it.

[doc03]

15. Once he becomes the nominee he will be in the cross-hairs, he will be doddering Bernie,

Senile Sanders, he will be a Marxist and I would bet he will hit on him for being Jewish. Trump ignorance has no bounds. You know Trump will hit his age, make him a communist, probably his religion and just make up shit.. Can he survive that? Maybe They have been demonizing Hillary and Bill Clinton for decades.

[mpcamb]

16. Or he'll be FDR. His issues are the real ones- societal change and every citizen mattering.

His appeal is similar to Trump's in that it's about an about face from where we've been headed.
That's why the media got it so wrong on both candidates.
Poor, disenchanted voters of every stripe know that something is fundamentally wrong.
Some of them take the easy way out and blame it on race. The wiser ones realize it's economics.

The Washington press has been getting it wrong because they only talk to each other.

[doc03]

17. I agree with about everything Bernie says but can a guy that calls

himself a socialist win?

[mpcamb]

18. Yeah. He can. He polls 11-15% better than Trump and has for months. HRC- way less.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-5565.html

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-sanders


Add to that, HRC numbers are falling against Trump since this 5/4/16 info.

According to Real Clear Politics, Clinton is beating Trump in most national polls by the following margins:

http://heavy.com/news/2016/05/bernie-sanders-vs-donald-trump-polls-better-than-hillary-clinton-independent-vote-democratic-nomination-how/

CNN/ORC: Clinton wins 47.3 to 40.8
IBD/TIPP: Clinton wins 47 to 40
USA Today/Suffolk: Clinton wins 50 to 39
GWU/Battleground: Clinton wins 46 to 43
Fox News: Clinton wins 48 to 31
But a recent poll by Rasmussen Reports shifted the trend, predicting that Trump will beat Clinton 41 to 39.

Meanwhile, here are Sanders’ numbers against Trump:

CNN/ORC: Sanders wins 52.2 to 38.8
IBC/TIPP: Sanders wins 56 to 40
USA Today/Suffolk: Sanders wins 52 to 37
GWU/Battleground: Sanders wins 50 to 40
Fox News: Sanders wins 53 to 39

[doc03]

19. Hillary's numbers always go south the more she campaigns and I am

sure Bill will do more damage than help. I think he has gone senile.

[doc03]

20. Yes but Sanders is not considered to be our nominee and the Republicans

haven't hit him.

[mpcamb]

22. Well, I think his strengths are covered in the posts above.

I haven't thrown in the towel yet.
Bernie hasn't either.

It's pretty clear that he's the stronger candidate in swing states and with independent and swing voters, millennials.
I don't know if party regulars and paid operatives will choose the stronger candidate; seems dubious, but they'll manage either way... but it's the same ole, same ole for the rest of us if there's not a dramatic change. That'll be a disaster.

[doc03]

24. It seems people in both parties are fed up with the establishment n/t

[PatrickforO]

27. They 'take the easy way out and blame it on race' with an active assist from the POB.

It's called 'divide and conquer' and it is being used by both Trump and Clinton for the simple reason that it works.

[Shandris]

12. No kidding. We're talking about a guy whose best tv show, one that millions upon millions...

...of people watched (for some unknown, ungodly reason), was based on the premise of FIRING EVERY COMPETITOR BUT ONE. That's not really the same as 'voted off the island', as getting fired is some nerve-wracking, fear-inducing nightmare to a whole lot of people in this world and getting 'voted off the island' is something we joke about at the watercooler.

Anyone think John Stewart could make that show (not as a comedy, rather) and have it succeed? A show about firing people? How about Bernie? Ohhhh, maybe DWS? Let's try a different tack. What if Hillary hosted it?

Maybe some disagree (and that's perfectly fine), but I don't think there are very many people who could have made that show not only watchable, but successful. That's a warning sign imo, because that's someone who knows how to hook people. Once he tops about 40% (ie, now) he's in Asch Experiment territory as a pop culture icon, with all the danger that entails.

[mdbl]

4. How comforting

Crazy Trump for President. Our march to an idiocracy is almost complete. Here's what you'll hear from Trump supporters -- "I like money"

[Attorney in Texas]

7. Who would have ever thought that a candidate with historic unfavorability numbers would do poorly?

[Monk06]

14. Just a bounce because he has no one running against him unlike Hilary So the Cruzers are piling

on to the Drumphwagen

[Egnever]

30. I think this nails it

Lets see where these stand after the conventions

[Yonnie3]

21. This is an Ipsos online poll.

Online polls are not as good as more traditional polling. It's not a good idea to make such sweeping statements from one inexpensive poll. Click bait headlines are all it's good for. Let's wait a week or two and see if it's a trend.

[ailsagirl]

29. Why are you even posting this??

Last edited Fri May 13, 2016, 01:47 PM - Edit history (2)