Exclusive: Trump Surges In Support, Almost Even With Clinton In National U.S.Poll

[imagine2015]

Source: Reuters


Donald Trump's support has surged and he is now running nearly even with Democrat Hillary Clinton among likely U.S. voters, a dramatic turnaround since he became the Republican party's presumptive presidential nominee, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Wednesday.

The results could signal a close fight between the two likely White House rivals as Americans make up their minds ahead of the Nov. 8 election to succeed Democratic President Barack Obama. As recently as last week, Clinton led Trump by around 13 points in the poll.

In the most recent survey, 41 percent of likely voters supported Clinton, the Democratic front-runner, and 40 percent backed Trump, with 19 percent not decided on either yet, according to the online poll of 1,289 people conducted from Friday to Tuesday. The poll had a credibility interval of about 3 percentage points.

The results reflect a big increase in support for Trump since he knocked out U.S. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas and Ohio Governor John Kasich last week to become the last Republican in the White House race.


Read more: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN0Y21TN

[onehandle]

1. 'General election polls before and during the primary are predictive of absolutely nothing.'

Ignore hypothetical matchups in primary season – they also measure nothing. General election polls before and during the primary season have a very wide margin of error. That’s especially the case for candidates who aren’t even in the race and therefore haven’t been treated to the onslaught of skeptical media coverage usually associated with being the candidate.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/harrys-guide-to-2016-election-polls

[rpannier]

7. It's also true that they're more indicative of the moment at hand

Trump sealed his nomination and people like winners (for the moment)
Those things usually change over time
Look at rMoney and his numbers at various times over the 2012 campaign
He looked like a winner, especially right after he sealed the nomination
The poll means very little except you've probably got a lot of bandwagon jumpers -- the guys who tell you how they were always Kansas City Royals fans right after the world series
or like Homer Simpson after the Isotopes won the penant

[reformist2]

34. But everyone is telling us primary season is over...

[tonyt53]

51. Lay off the polls until Labor Day

[moonbabygo]

54. bingo

I have always heard the polls after labor day are the ones that count

[Renew Deal]

2. The non-Trumps are getting on board

Hillary's support will improve too after the nomination. Same thing happened in 2008 for Obama and McCain.

[apnu]

3. National polls are bullshit.

Even more so in May.

Even more so before the primary is over.

[imagine2015]

4. Unless they favor Clinton?

[pnwmom]

9. How many men were included? How many women? How many minorities? What were their ages?

I don't see the answers to these questions anywhere -- and if the sample wasn't representative, then the poll is worthless.

[Feeling the Bern]

11. Isn't that always the fact? Bernie does poorly in polls, HRC people tell him to drop

Bernie does well in polls, HRC people say it doesn't matter and Bernie should drop.

They have blinders on about how unpopular and unwanted HRC is.

[pnwmom]

15. Online polls skew to younger, male, and white voters. And this poll doesn't reveal its internals.

It's just a toy.

[Bucky]

22. I'm laughing all the way to the reeducation camps

[yourpaljoey]

40. I am putting in my request for a room with a view

We know Hill will hand the keys to Wall Street, Insurance, Pharma, the makers of weapons, NSA, the austerity-for-the-middle-class ball busters... and so on.
There is no way to predict what could happen with Trump at the helm.

We need Sanders more than ever.

[JHB]

36. Unless they are state-by-state...

...with statistically relevant samples in each. And that's before getting into how many months out, before the conventions, etc.

It's how the states fall that determines electoral votes, and that's what determines the outcome.

National polls can be previews, but the trailer ain't the movie.

[zeemike]

5. It looks more like 1968 to me all the time.

In that election the people wanted a change from the war and conflict and the Dems offered them Humphrey...the establishment candidate...and the GOP offered them a Nixon who said he had a plan to end the war.
Humphrey's slogan was "the politics of joy" (how out of touch was that?) and people did not buy it and the rest is history.

There is no doubt that this country wants change and Trump would be that even though it may not be the kind of change that is helpful. But then people did not like Nixon and liberals felt about him similar to how they feel about Trump.

[Feeling the Bern]

12. Democrats love their establishment candidates ever since Johnson.

Look what they did to Carter. They wouldn't work with Carter worth nothing, but bent over backwards for Ronnie Raygun.

[zeemike]

25. Carter won because people wanted change again.

And you are right, they undercut him at every turn.
There was a real sense of hope when Carter was elected, but that did not last.
And I am old enough to remember those times.

[C Moon]

31. The politics of joy? What they hell were they thinking? Wow!

[yourpaljoey]

39. I was dumfounded when they selected Humphrey

When I look back, I still am

[pnwmom]

6. I can't figure out how to look at the internals in these polls. Where is the sample described? nt

[rpannier]

8. You are correct

There doesn't appear to be any explanation as to samples or methodology
IPSOS is pretty reliable (I think), but I'm not totally sure

I think this is more about bandwagon effect, everyone loves a winner kind of thing
rMoney had it in 2012, didn't do him any good

[pnwmom]

10. Something's odd here because RCP hasn't included this in their aggregates of polls.

And they have included some Reuters polls in the past.

So how is a poll conducted entirely online supposed to be representative, when older people and minorities -- who are less likely to be online -- skew toward Hillary?

[Omaha Steve]

13. NBC: Who's More Likely to Beat Donald Trump — Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders? (Sanders)

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/who-s-more-likely-beat-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-or-n570766


MAY 10 2016, 9:03 AM ET

by HANNAH HARTIG, JOHN LAPINSKI and STEPHANIE PSYLLOS

Hillary Clinton holds a 12-point lead over Bernie Sanders nationally, but in a hypothetical match-up against Donald Trump, Sanders does much better than the current Democratic front-runner.

As Ted Cruz and John Kasich exited the Republican primary race last week — making Trump the party's presumptive nominee — Clinton and Sanders have used Trump's candidacy to argue that they would be in the best position to defeat him in the general election in November.

When respondents in our NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll were asked whether they would cast a vote for Trump or either of the Democratic candidates still in the race, Sanders is the favorite over Trump by 13 points.

Clinton also beats Trump, but the race is decidedly closer — 49 percent to 44 percent. These results are according to the latest from the NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll conducted online from May 2 through May 8 of 12,714 adults including 11,089 registered voters.

FULL story at link.

[SunSeeker]

14. Hillary has never attacked Sanders. Neither have the Republicans.

His numbers would drop like a rock as soon as he started getting hit with negative ads. They would have a LOT to work with. And all of it new to voters. Sanders would not know what hit him.


Hillary has already been hit will all that is out there about her. She has shown she can weather all of it.

[Omaha Steve]

17. Hillary's friends do her dirty work

This one failed too!

[SunSeeker]

18. No one has done any dirty work on Sanders. Calling him something he calls himself is not "dirt." nt

[Omaha Steve]

23. She tried to bury him

He wears it as a badge of honor.

[SunSeeker]

28. She never tried to bury him. She ran no negative ads against him, unlike the nasty ads he ran. nt

[Omaha Steve]

20. She has shown she can weather all of it?

Have you looked at her negative rating? Have you considered how much the right hates her after 25 years in the public eye?

[SunSeeker]

21. Yes, she has weathered it. She is the most admired woman in the world. nt

[Omaha Steve]

26. Again

You ignore her high negative rating. And the way the right will come out to vote against her.

[SunSeeker]

27. The rabid right wing hate her. So what?

As FDR said, I welcome their hatred.

Trump is hated much more, and by all the rest of us. And we WILL come out to vote.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

44. Don't confuse them with facts. They are immune.

After all, look at who they support for president.

[SunSeeker]

16. It's Trump's nomination bounce.

Hillary would have that bounce if Sanders wasn't still out there lying that he has a viable path to the nomination and bashing Hillary as a "moaner." She will get that bounce eventually, and Trump will fade.

[Agschmid]

24. 3-4 Leave.

[SunSeeker]

29. Thanks, Agschmid.

[C Moon]

32. That's a very good point. I'm a Bernie supporter, and I am sure worried about a Trump win. But gd pt

[mountain grammy]

47. Sanders isn't lying.

[SunSeeker]

58. He knows he does not have a viable path to the nomination, yet he says he does. nt

[mountain grammy]

60. Sanders isn't lying.

[SunSeeker]

61. There is no viable path to the nomination for Sanders.

Hillary is just 148 delegates away from the magic number of 2,382 for securing the nomination. Sanders is 919 delegates away.

Before the big June 7th day there are only 183 delegates up for grabs between OR, KY, VI and PR. To get to 200 behind by the end of that stretch, Sanders needs to win 72.7% of all pledged delegates in the next 4 races (133 of 183). 

Let's pretend he can do that. There is total of 694 pledged delegates on June 7th between CA, NJ, ND, SD, MT and NM. To make up that wildly unlikely 200 point gap, Bernie needs to win 64.4% of the delegates on this date (447 of 694) just to tie Clinton. 

That's brutally unlikely. 

Except just one last thing. 

DC votes on June 14th. DC has 20 pledged delegates. DC is over 50% black. 

So that brutally unlikely hypothetical I laid out above? It still ends in a Clinton pledged delegate victory.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1107&pid=131035

[Akicita]

49. I believe it was Andrea Mitchell who Bernie said was moaning about Clinton's problems.

[SunSeeker]

56. Link?

[Akicita]

59. Here you go. BTW Andrea Mitchell is setting up a Moaners For Hillary superpac. You should join.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/05/11/bernie_sanders_to_andrea_mitchell_dont_moan_to_me_about_hillary_clintons_problems.html#ooid=81cnlmMzE6jCP9jqeIUClKK4WPfHqe2l

[SunSeeker]

62. Figures. You are making stuff up. Watch your own linked video.

In it, Mitchell tries to ask Sanders about the "two front war" Hillary is fighting, being attacked by Sanders from one side and Trump from the other. Sanders rudely interrupts Mitchell and says "Please do not moan to me about Hillary Clinton's problems."

Mitchell was taken aback by the rude, sexist statement (has Sanders ever accused a man of "moaning" in describing a man's question?). Mitchell corrected Sanders: "I don't think that I was 'moaning about Hillary Clinton's problems'..."

Truly disgusting display by Sanders.

[Akicita]

63. What was digusting was that Andrea "The Shill" Mitchell interviewed a presidential candidate and,

instead of asking about issues or his proposed solutions to the countries problems, spent the whole interview moaning about her preferred candidates problems and how Bernie was partially responsible for them.

Why didn't she badger Hillary about criticizing Obama when they were competing in 2008 and Obama had pulled ahead?

Kudos for Bernie for calling her on it and pointing out he is running against Hillary in the primary and not running with her as Andrea would like. Just like Hillary ran against Obama in 2008.

[SunSeeker]

64. It is a legitimate question.

Sanders himself said in that interview that defeating Trump was the most important thing. If that is the case, then why is Sanders forcing Hillary to spend money fighting a two-front war when she needs to save her money for the GE? Why is he attacking Hillary with claims that she is "unqualified"? Mitchell played a clip of Trump gleefully parroting Sanders' "unqualified" smear and asked Sanders about that. Sanders refused to answer. He instead insulted Mitchell, accusing her of "moaning"...much the way Trump insults female journalists who ask him uncomfortable questions.

Hillary was repeatedly asked that question, even though she was never as far behind Obama as Sanders is to her now. And Hillary did not accuse the journalists of "moaning about Barrack Obama's problems." Her campaign simply maintained they could win.
http://www.newsweek.com/alter-hillary-should-get-out-now-93737

[elmac]

19. and much depends on the VP choice

If HRC/Warren that would be the dream team, not sure who Trump could pick to help him out, they are all pretty much lame on the right.

[That Guy 888]

30. HRC/DWS? Why break up a useful working relationship

of course.

I hope Warren doesn't leave the Senate. We will need her there if either trump or Clinton are elected President. I also think it would screw her own career to prop up HRC with likely nothing in return. The Clinton's, especially Hillary demand L-o-y-a-l-t-y

Case in point one of her subordinates wrote an article describing how hard it was to be a mother and work at the state dept. HRC hated the article, and a different subordinate wrote an opposing piece, making sure to clear her opinions with Clinton before submitting her work.

After the article ran, now U.S. Ambassador to Qatar Dana Shell Smith also wrote a retort for the Atlantic saying she felt the exact opposite as Slaughter at State, entitled: "How to Have an Insanely Demanding Job and 2 Happy Children."

Before filing the story, she emailed a draft to top State official Pat Kennedy and Mills, who forwarded it to Clinton.

"I'm attaching a draft here," she wrote. "Before seeing if The Atlantic would be interested, I want to make sure you both would be ok with it? If so, I also welcome any suggestions/edits/critique."

Clinton liked it: "I think she's done a good job expressing her views."

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/11/hillary-clinton-emails-slaughter-216285#ixzz48Q1OrGb1


Emphasis is mine. The article provides an interesting view about what level of groveling must be done to appease HRC if she doesn't like what you have done.

[pnwmom]

33. It's still not listed on RCP. And it's impossible to judge it because it doesn't report

its internals.

It's an online poll and they tend to be dominated by young, white men. So how does this pollster do their sampling and why aren't they willing to share their sampling data, like reputable traditional pollsters?

[Thinkingabout]

55. It isn't noted in the article where and who did the poll, suspicious, guess most don't expect for

their links to be followed.

[AllyCat]

37. Because, despite GOP concerns, tRump really DOES speak for them

All the hatred and bigotry is exactly how they feel.

They just weren't ready to come out yet.

He dragged them out and they are willing to embrace their hatred now.

[Equinox Moon]

38. This is terrible news

[NorthCarolina]

41. Must have been a negative surge for him to catch Hillary since she has

pretty consistently polled behind the Donald.

[whatthehey]

50. Ermmm...nope

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

[B2G]

42. Poll details here:

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_13/filters/LIKELY:1/dates/20160201-20160510/type/day

[pnwmom]

57. Those "details" leave out all the critical info about how the sample was selected

and who comprised it: by gender, race, age, etc.

There is no way to know how representative it is.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

43. Dear Mr. Brock:

You broke it. Now fix it.

[fbc]

45. I am sure Clinton's massive support in the deep south will put her over the top

[Ohio Joe]

46. Oh... An online poll...

Not sure why trump humping bullshit like this is permitted.

[Rafale]

48. The whole Left-Right paradigm is falling apart.

It's basically becoming the Haves against the Have-Nots and yet old people cling to a broken paradigm, cheering for certain candidates like we were at a football match. It's really not the candidates we should be cheering. We should be cheering for and supporting real change, the same change we were promised in 2008 and never got. Maybe we should fight for more change than we were promised back in 2008. We need to be about ideas, not cult of personalities, branding, neoconservatism dressed up like "Liberalism," warmongering to trade US lives for oil, multinational agreements that steal the wealth of the middle and lower classes. Why are we listening to empty promises from people, who have a demonstrated record of acting against our interests. Come on, good people.

[yellowcanine]

52. "online poll of 1,289 people" Yes let's get our knickers in a twist over an online poll......

[Attorney in Texas]

53. How is this news? Is it news that Americans prefer crappy McDonald's fast food over healthier kale?

Just because one thing is good for you and the other thing is bad for you, it isn't hardly news that the less palatable but healthier option is tied in the polls with the crap that's eventually going to kill you.