U.S. Retail Sales Rise Strongly, Boost Economic Outlook

[Purveyor]

Source: Reuters

U.S. retail sales in April recorded their biggest increase in a year as Americans stepped up purchases of automobiles and a range of other goods, suggesting the economy was regaining momentum after growth almost stalled in the first quarter.

The jump in sales reported by the Commerce Department on Friday is a boost for the sector that has been hit by sluggish demand. It comes days after major retailers, including Macy's and Nordstrom, reported sales tumbled in the first quarter and lowered their full-year profit forecasts.

"The retail sales report shows that recent claims of the demise of the U.S. consumer have been greatly exaggerated," said Steve Murphy, a U.S. economist at Capital Economics in Toronto.

Retail sales surged 1.3 percent last month, the largest gain since March 2015, after dropping 0.3 percent in March. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales shot up 0.9 percent last month after an upwardly revised 0.2 percent gain in March.

Read more: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-idUSKCN0Y41JL

[whatthehey]

1. Last month, when they fell

(OK they were revised upwards, but initial report and all that) there were several folks claiming this was proof of falling wages and people running out of the ability to spend. There's really only three options then if you agreed with them:


1) Assert with equal certainty that this is proof of rising wages and people having more disposible income. Then at least you are honest and consistent in how you evaluate reports, albeit a tad simplistic.

2) Pretend it's proof of something else bad like the 1% grabbing all the $$ and frittering them away, or a last desperate Visa-fueled binge before the inevitable collapse into a vermin-stew dystopia, rendering it clear that you are addicted to doom regardless of data and trend direction.

3) Admit that single data point swings are complex independent variables from which no meaningful inference can be drawn without looking at longer term trends of this and other associated metrics.

Big clue. The sensible answer is not 1 or 2. But assuming you choose 3 (well done!) what that means is you are a hypocritical doom-merchant seeking only confirmation bias if you do the chicken little dance next time this wobbles downward. Consistency is key.

[Purveyor]

2. And of course there is this: Consumer Credit Surges At Fastest Rate In Nearly 15 Years

WASHINGTON--Borrowing by U.S. consumers ballooned in March at the fastest pace in more than a decade.

Outstanding consumer credit, a measure of non-real estate debt, rose by a seasonally adjusted $29.67 billion in March from the prior month, the Federal Reserve said Friday. The 10.0% seasonally adjusted annual growth rate was the fastest growth pace since November 2001.

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected a $16.5 billion increase in March.

Consumer credit rose at a 4.78% pace in February, revised down from an earlier estimate.

Revolving credit outstanding, mostly credit cards, increased at a 14.16% annual pace in March, the fastest pace since July 2000. Revolving credit rose at a revised rate of 3.72% in February.

more...

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-credit-surges-at-fastest-rate-in-nearly-15-years-2016-05-06

[whatthehey]

3. So you're going for option 2 then. Oookaay...

[Purveyor]

4. I'm going with not a damned thing. I just post OP's for informational purposes only. I just

don't understand the thinking that any OP posted must be related to the thoughts and beliefs of the poster.

Rather silly if you ask me.

[sendero]

5. Tell you what..

..... there can be 6 down months and the MSM will say next to nothing about it but as soon as there is a single up month it portends great growth ahead.

It doesn't. It is the same back and forth wobble that has been going on for years. and looking at the longer term there is growth, but very anemic growth compared to past norms and what is expected (foolishly) to be normal again.

[whatthehey]

6. I think the media report both equally

Both this month's and last had MSM links. Thanks for looking at the long term and recognizing growth. I likewise recognize that it is slow growth. But improvement is improvement, and often very rapid improvement is very fragile. Given the choice, I prefer sustainable growth to wild boom and bust. Are we in that mode? I don't have a crystal ball and I'm surely not foolish enough to say recessions are no longer an option. I just don't say recoveries aren't an option either.