Georgia poll shows tight presidential race
Source: Politico
By KRISTEN EAST
A new poll of Georgia voters finds Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton nearly tied in a general election matchup.
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll shows Trump with a 4-point lead over Clinton, 45 percent to 41 percent, which is within the polls 4.26 percentage point margin of error.
The sentiments expressed by independents further contribute to the statistical tie between the two presumptive nominees. Independents in Georgia were evenly split between the two candidates, with 13 percent saying they were undecided or dont support either candidate.
Mirroring several recent polls, Bernie Sanders polled higher than Clinton in a general election meeting with Trump. Sanders now a long shot to become the Democratic nominee bests Trump 47 percent to 42 percent in a hypothetical contest. Sanders also had the highest favorability rating (47 percent), compared with 40 percent for Trump and 31 for Clinton.
FULL story at link.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/georgia-trump-clinton-sanders-223195
9 point difference for Bernie in the SOUTH!
Redwoods Red
(137 posts)Trump beats Hillary by four.
Trump loses to Sanders by five.
Hmmmm.
Dawgs
(14,755 posts)It won't be close.
Redwoods Red
(137 posts)Trump will win?
Hillary will win?
The default position has been that Georgia goes Republican.
cstanleytech
(26,224 posts)I live in this shithole state and they do not make it easy for a Democrat to win an election here and most of the Republicans in this state have no shame and will use every dirty tricks and shit smearing ad to win for their candidate even if that candidate is Trump.
IronLionZion
(45,380 posts)There was a time when Max Cleland, Sam Nunn, and Zell Miller were elected there too. It wasn't too long ago.
cstanleytech
(26,224 posts)Cleland though is a prime example of the shit smearing the Republicans are willing to wage against a Democrat in this state.
Baobab
(4,667 posts)Think about that for a moment- think about how good of a thing that would be for our country.
Bernie by untie-ing the knot of wedge issue politics- which all the others are engaging in, frees us all from this bulls*** cycle of pain and suffering and allows us to reach a higher state of consciousness where we see all of our common interests.
cstanleytech
(26,224 posts)jesus they would probably shoot first and ask questions later.
IronLionZion
(45,380 posts)so voting demographics of many states have changed. That contributed to Obama winning North Carolina, Virginia, and Indiana, and other states that were thought to be solid red in past elections but are now more competitive if our side can get enough turnout in liberal cities like Atlanta.
cstanleytech
(26,224 posts)treated him and the majority of his proposals like something they wanted to scrape off the bottom of their shoes which is probably how they will treat and Democrat.
Very important post!
ablamj
(333 posts)These new-fangled electronic voting machines. Once we got those in GA it's been pretty much all R since.
Dawgs
(14,755 posts)rpannier
(24,328 posts)Carter and Nunn got smoked
For now, Georgia is very republican
I don't see that changing even with Trump
NewImproved Deal
(534 posts)(Note that the Former First Lady has the lowest favorability rating)...
"Bernie Sanders polled higher than Clinton in a general election meeting with Trump. Sanders now a long shot to become the Democratic nominee bests Trump 47 percent to 42 percent in a hypothetical contest. Sanders also had the highest favorability rating (47 percent), compared with 40 percent for Trump and 31 for Clinton."
Bakkeno
(20 posts)Be ahead of Hillary on the primaries so far?
Could favorability be overrated as predictor of victory?
Human101948
(3,457 posts)About 40% of whom are independents. When independents are thrown into the mix, Hillary loses.
MFM008
(19,803 posts)Something Sanders supporters need to see in the long road______________________________________________>>>>>
Human101948
(3,457 posts)Not confidence inspiring. While Sanders beats Trump soundly.
Baobab
(4,667 posts)Those voters are far less likely to come out for Hillary than Bernie. If they were Hillarians they would either have joined up because they like to be told what to do and have a strong leader, would never have left. This huge unaffiliated near majority are people who have basically said 'none of the two parties speak to me now' but Bernie does speak to them.
Its a historic opportunity that the DWSs out there are terrified of . Because the huge group thinks that they are a problem.
Bernie should run as an independent if he does no get the nomination.
Because of the trade deals a Hillary Administration could literally sell the entire country out forever.
zeemike
(18,998 posts)That leaves 64% that do matter.
Bakkeno
(20 posts)Guess who won.
And who has worse favorability? Clinton or Trump?
zeemike
(18,998 posts)Clinton has a long history of controversy, Obama had none.
Clinton has high negative ratings, Obama did not.
You might think those things don't matter but they do.
But who does have the higher negative rate Clinton or Trump...well in Georgia at least logic says Clinton sense she can't even beat the worst candidate the GOP could find.
NewImproved Deal
(534 posts)Cryptoad
(8,254 posts)have never heard of Bernie Sanders.......
ToxMarz
(2,162 posts)And probably hear very little positive, and a great deal 'very scary'. He is very susceptible to be branded by the opposition.
Cryptoad
(8,254 posts)reACTIONary
(5,768 posts)hueymahl
(2,447 posts)I live in Georgia, I am relatively active in politics, and I can tell you that on a name recognition basis, Sanders is well known. Hillary is more well known, but not in a good way.
Democrats in Georgia will vote for Hillary if it is convenient for them to do so. What I mean by that is they are not excited to vote for her and most men and a plurality of women do not like her. But they dislike Trump more. So, if it is raining, or a bad traffic day, or too much to do at work, a lot of good democrats just won't be able to make it to the polls.
Lets hope for sunshine light work loads.
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)And they are not in much denial that it is the case. Why even our former AG is raising money for her. That and the Super Delegates...which I predict are going to have some difficult decisions to make, given many of them are in elected offices.
And to the direct question...Clinton and Trump both exceed all in the unfavorability ratings. That one still somewhat stumps me.
Skittles
(153,111 posts)get with the program!
SmittynMo
(3,544 posts)eom
DavidDvorkin
(19,465 posts)You're not making sense.
Redwoods Red
(137 posts)Sanders up by five, Clinton down by four.
DavidDvorkin
(19,465 posts)He would lose Georgia in a landslide, along with the rest of the country.
jaysunb
(11,856 posts)SunSeeker
(51,508 posts)Redwoods Red
(137 posts)DavidDvorkin
(19,465 posts)To most Americans, he's still a name, an unknown, an alternative. If he were the candidate, that would change immediately.
Redwoods Red
(137 posts)To be fair, both campaigns have being assiduous with their opposition research.
And Bernie has been running for president for awhile now. I think a lot of people now know who he is.
And Bernie just isn't a rich vein of material for the GOP, like Hillary is.
Gonna go with the honeymoon in Moscow? Okay.
I don't think "But, but he's a socialist!" has the killing power it once did.
I'm curious: Do you think Hillary can win Georgia?
DavidDvorkin
(19,465 posts)Polls matching her against Trump mean something. As I've said (and I don't agree with your objections to what I've said), polls matching Sanders against Trump are meaningless.
Redwoods Red
(137 posts)Poll showing Hillary in reach, but trailing Trump, valid.
Same poll showing Bernie beating Trump, not valid.
Okay......
SunSeeker
(51,508 posts)But on DU, we can't discuss what that is without getting a hide.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1107125158
Redwoods Red
(137 posts)And Hillary partisans have been working that material for months. Right here on DU.
SunSeeker
(51,508 posts)And what few such posts that survive a hide are nowhere near as nasty as a GOP ad would be -- nor are those posts aimed in such a way as to turn off GOP and independents.
Sanders would not know what hit him.
floppyboo
(2,461 posts)so, where/what is it? Same goes with Hillary. Where's her argument against Sanders? All she can come with now that unelectable has fallen apart is voting against the auto bail out, which is not true.
SunSeeker
(51,508 posts)The GOP had no interest in trying while he sat in Vermont, the bluest of the blue states.
The GOP knows their only chance at the White House is if Sanders is the nominee, so they have not run ads against him during the primary like they have against Hillary.
LisaL
(44,972 posts)Baobab
(4,667 posts)The era of "impunity"
>so, where/what is it? Same goes with Hillary. Where's her argument against Sanders? All she can come with now that unelectable has fallen apart is voting against the auto bail out, which is not true.
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)ETA: Almost forgot...I got a hide discussing her Real Record. Go figure.
SunSeeker
(51,508 posts)pnwmom
(108,955 posts)once either of them is up against Trump.
Bernie will have a RICH vein of material to use against him. The Rethugs are salivating to go after him as a socialist/commie/pinko and those attacks will be very effective, especially in the South.
RichVRichV
(885 posts)In fact every bit of evidence to this point in time points to the contrary of your claim. You have nothing but innuendo. Here are some facts.
1) Bernie already polls better against Trump than Hillary in state after state, so somebody has to be paying attention. I don't think there's a swing state that Hillary does better than Bernie against Trump.
2) Bernie Has had a year to build his positive brand free of Republican attacks. He won't win the nomination until July at the earliest, which gives Republicans a total of 4 months to counter his 18 months of positive name building. You're sure they're going to tear him down in that time, but there's very little to actually attack him on. He loves being attacked on the socialism charge because it gives him a means to address his platform. That's the last thing the Republicans want.
3) You talk about Hillary already weathering the storm and being battle tested, but her ratings are in the toilet (especially among Independents). Bernie would have to fall like an asteroid just to reach where she's at in negative favorability. She is going into the GE from an awful position, he is going in from a great position.
4) He has been getting attacked on the Democratic side for a year now and his favorability has only grown as he has become more known. Meanwhile Hillary's has plummeted (especially among the all important Independents for the GE).
5) He has run multiple races in Vermont as a Democratic socialist (It's not like this is a new platform for him). And the last race was a very expensive, very negative campaign by his Republican challenger. Bernie won over 70% of the vote. In the presidential primary election against a Democrat he won over 80% of the vote in his home state. Vermont may not mirror the rest of the country in the Democratic primary, but it definitely mirrors the very white Republican side and to a great extent the Independent votes. Large swaths of Republicans and Independents vote for him every election in Vermont, and they know him better than anyone (good and bad).
6) Bernie has absolutely destroyed Hillary on the Independent vote during the primary season, winning it virtually all over the country, even in the deep south where she won her primaries by large margins. He has consistently won as many or more Independents than Donald Trump has won in the Republican primary, proving he's a match for him in that category all over the country and particularly in swing states.
7) Bernie's greatest strength is his honesty and consistency. His peers in the house and senate who are on the other side respect him for being straight forward with them even when they disagree with him. His platform doesn't change just with the wind, or hardly even over time. Honesty and consistency plays very well with everyone. People want to vote for people who are authentic (even if they just seem authentic, which Bernie doesn't have to fake).
8) Once you get past labels, the majority of the population agrees with the majority of Bernie's agenda. Most people believe inequality is a major issue. Most people are angry over the bank bailouts and lack of prosecutions. Most people are sick of the wars and imperialism our country uses. Most people believe health care is too costly. Most people believe higher education is too costly. There might be wide variances across the political spectrum in how people believe they should be fixed, but most everyone agrees these are issues. Bernie not only talks about these issues, he aggressively attacks them. People follow strong leaders, not leaders who wait to see what can be accomplished or how polling shows they should proceed. Triangulation has garnered us nothing but lost congresses and lost states.
9) This is a very anti-establishment year in politics. Independents in particular, and parts of the two parties, are sick of how things are going. It's a major reason Trump has resonated with people in spite of his vile hatred. Hillary, whether you like it or not, is the epitome of establishment. Bernie is the only anti-establishment candidate we have running, or even in our deck. This is no fault of Hillary's, but it will play a part in the general election.
Again, you've got innuendo and gut feelings, but there is no evidence to back up your claim.
Bernin4U
(812 posts)Two cookies for you!
LisaL
(44,972 posts)states.
RichVRichV
(885 posts)I mean other then the fact they vote for Bernie Sanders? Go look at the list of Governors, or Senators, or Representatives.
What your going to see is a whole lot more red than blue in there. Bernie's success wasn't because Vermont was a blue state. Bernie and his socialist ideas played a major part in turning Vermont blue. He enjoys wide support among Democrats, Republicans, and Independents in the state. That doesn't happen unless the representative and their ideas are looked upon favorably across the political spectrum.
reACTIONary
(5,768 posts)pnwmom
(108,955 posts)once the Trump machine got through with him.
His favorability is higher now because the national GOP machine has never attacked him, and they've spent decades attacking Hillary.
That would change if he were the nominee.
He hasn't been attacked by GOP as of yet since they had no reason to go after him.
SmittynMo
(3,544 posts)No further explanation is required.
underpants
(182,603 posts)Just saying.
The idea that people even considering Trump, as this poll suggests, would vote for Bernie is a bit of a stretch.
appalachiablue
(41,103 posts)Duval
(4,280 posts)Thanks, Omaha Steve! We're going win this thing, barring no more National disgraces like the big one the other night.
Binkie The Clown
(7,911 posts)And the Hillarians will conjure up every excuse in the book, including Bernie, for why, when the time comes, Trump will beat the crap out of her in the general. The very last thing they would even consider is the very first thing they should notice. Their candidate is deeply unpopular.
nxylas
(6,440 posts)They've already started. We've been hearing for a while now about how Bernie is helping Drumph by making Hillary go through an actual selection process, instead of simply handing her the nomination the way she's been handed every other political office she's held (Senator for New York is a possible exception, though winning a Senatorial election in a solidly blue state after being parachuted into a vacant seat hardly counts as an outstanding achievement).
Omaha Steve
(99,493 posts)JFK Jr. was going to run for the seat at the last moment. Polling said he was the states most popular D! He called Hillary a carpetbagger!
TimPlo
(443 posts)given to her her primary opponent was so no name lawyer from NYC . And Daniel Patrick Moynihan was retiring Senator that held the office since 1977. So winning NY as a (D) was simple. That is why she picked NY.
kpola12
(78 posts)He would also win Utah and Idaho.
redstateblues
(10,565 posts)Bernin4U
(812 posts)pansypoo53219
(20,952 posts)stupidity trumps female.
McCamy Taylor
(19,240 posts)basselope
(2,565 posts)In almost every poll (not every single one, but MOST of them) the establishment candidate has been greatly overestimated.
Hillary was supposed to win Indiana by 6, lost by 6. Trump was supposed to win PA by 20, won by 36. Sanders was up by 6 in WV won by 15+
You can find outliers, but the majority go this way.
Odds are in most polls the establishment candidate is being OVER ESTIMATED and the anti-establishment candidate is being UNDER ESTIMATED.
When you put Bernie against Trump, you have 2 anti-establishment candidates so things like favorability ratings, likability, trustworthiness.. they all start to matter. and you probably have a more realistic result.
Bakkeno
(20 posts)And primary polls are historically more inaccurate than general election polls.
basselope
(2,565 posts)The establishment candidate with a huge fundraising advantage and infinite name recognition is barely winning the primary against someone who wasn't a democrat until the primary started. However, that isn't even what this discussion is about.
Sorry, but no, presidential GE polls are no more accurate than primary polls. I think what you are confusing is taking primary polls too far out form the primary, since they tend to be influenced by results from previous states, so EARLY polls for later stats are meaningless.. but polls taken within days of the primary bear the same accuracy as presidential GE polls.
The big problem has been the reliance upon the "Likely voter" model.. with anti-establishment candidates in the mix, what used to be a "likely voter" isn't anymore and people are being discounted as "unlikely voters" when they are actually more likely to show up.
You can do your own research on this. It's happened consistently on BOTH the democratic and republican side. The polls have mostly been wrong underestimating both Trump and Sanders.
Bakkeno
(20 posts)Now you claimed they are only inaccurate when they are "far out".
But you also argue that primary polls suck because they underestimate Hillary.
Your inconsistency is the result of trying too hard to find any theory to prove that Trump will beat Clinton.
Go look at pre- election polls in recent general elections, and you will see they are much more accurate than primary polls, even if they are not "far out".
Please try to follow.
Primary polls taken too far from the primary date are inaccurate. However, which is why most sites that average only use the last 5 polls that are usually taken the week of.
These averages (which you can research yourself on RCP of Huff Po) have CONSISTENTLY (not 100% of the time, but in a vast majority of cases) underestimated Sanders and Trumps actual results.
Pre-election pols in recently general elections have the same problems. If they are taken prior to convention or even shortly after, they are nonsense. There were moments when McCain/Palin was beating Obama/Biden. It is only when the election gets closer that they become more accurate.
However, this year, more than ANY OTHER, the primary polls have been off in the exact same way most of the time.. underestimating the anti-establishment candidate and overestimating the establishment ones.
Cryptoad
(8,254 posts)it kinda moot what Bern polls against Trump.
Omaha Steve
(99,493 posts)Cryptoad
(8,254 posts)Omaha Steve
(99,493 posts)progressoid
(49,944 posts)Just a gentle reminder that that passive aggressive thing still doesn't work.
Enthusiast
(50,983 posts)wisteria
(19,581 posts)For obvious reasons. One of which is, The general election has not even started. If it was October it would be different story.
Equinox Moon
(6,344 posts)and will probably keep polling nearly tied overall.
I am very worried!
Cryptoad
(8,254 posts)Equinox Moon
(6,344 posts)I am not so sure and it worries me. There are a lot of people in this country tRump flushed up and the other racist repubes will end up voting for him, in secret. I have had casual conversations with neighbors and was shocked to here them say they are voting for tRump. This is not a done deal. America has voted for celebrity's before. Reagan, Schwarzenegger, Ventura.
But I hope you are right about a Dem landslide. I will take even a close win.
JosephAlanWatson
(19 posts)There is a reason Bernie wants a high voter turnout. Seems as if there isn't going to be one.
madville
(7,404 posts)Wendy Davis winning the Texas Governorship and Allison Grimes winning the Kentucky Senate. Both lost those races by 15-20% when it was all over.
I think the trend in this year's polling is that they are overestimating the enthusiasm people have to turnout for Hillary in these reddish purple and swing states.
Calista241
(5,585 posts)I remember that
I also remember how close Kentucky was going to be and that Brownback was going to lose Kansas
greymattermom
(5,751 posts)are taught to be polite to women. They will see and hear a lot more about Trump in the next few months.
apnu
(8,749 posts)Georgia's been a mostly dependable Republican state for the past 30 years, according to 270towin.com, Georgia's popular vote history is:
2012 Dem: 45.5% GOP: 53.3%
2008 Dem: 47.0% GOP: 52.2%
2004 Dem: 41.4% GOP: 58.0%
2000 Dem: 43.0% GOP: 54.7%
http://www.270towin.com/states/Georgia
Its May, the Democratic Primary is not over, so polling isn't showing any kind of accuracy. Voters haven't tightened up.