Benchmark Politics Calls Oregon for Sanders (+1) In Tight Race Based on Computer Model Prediction

[big_dog]

Source: Benchmark Politics

Onto Oregon now, everyone. We have Sanders +1. We think he'll win. we were close in KY, and by all means, its within the margin for error. Polls close at 8:00 PDT, 10:00 Central. Our call for Oregon probably wont be til 11:00 PM central. Everyone take 5 and we'll return for OR! Even though we have Sanders in OR at +1 I really feel like Clinton has a 40% shot at winning

Read more: https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/732742364423315456

[RandySF]

1. I'm surprised it would be so close

Obama won big in 2008.

[Kingofalldems]

2. Hillary won Kentucky.

Repubs are sad.

[beachbumbob]

3. Based on their prediction success....another Hillary win?

[big_dog]

5. Benchmark called it 2% for Hillary

pretty darn close

[Kingofalldems]

4. Hillary now 11 for 11 in closed primaries.

[big_dog]

6. looks like another nail biter...

Even though Sanders in OR at +1 I really feel like Clinton has a 40% shot at winning

[CrowCityDem]

7. That isn't a call or projection. It's a prediction.

[brooklynite]

8. Sanders +1???

I was told this would be a blowout.

[big_dog]

10. exit polls can be wrong

and often are in the early afternoons

[brooklynite]

13. There are no exit polls...

Bechmark is an analytical model.

[vdogg]

9. They haven't called it.

They only call once they have official results. This is their projection, they'll call once they see if the vote matches their projection.

[Retrograde]

12. Oregon hasn't even finished voting yet.

I don't think any results will be released until then.

Some people seem so excited about being the first to "call it" that they go off before voters are done, as if it's the West Coast's fault they're in a different time zone.

[Pastiche423]

14. We have until 8 pm to drop off our ballots.

Although mailed in my ballot last week.

[book_worm]

11. If Bernie won Oregon (a overwhelmingly white state) by only one point

it would be a big set back for him.

[Bluenorthwest]

15. They are fully riffing, there is no way to make such a projection nor to figure a margin of

of error based on any sort of data. Voting is still in progress. No exit polling. Very little and really inferior polling. What sort of computer model they could be using is very difficult to imagine. They seem confused and frustrated by our process.