Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search
 

Cheese Sandwich

(9,086 posts)
Wed May 18, 2016, 08:39 PM May 2016

Trump beats Clinton by 3 points in new poll

Source: The Hill

Donald Trump edges out Hillary Clinton by 3 percentage points in a hypothetical general election match-up, according to a new Fox News poll.

Trump has 45 percent support, while Clinton trails with 42, putting just within the poll's margin of error.

Clinton rival Bernie Sanders, meanwhile, leads Trump 46 to 42, according to the same poll.

The presumptive GOP nominee is buoyed by his support among whites, leading Clinton 55 to 31 percent. That margin grows among whites without a college degree, 61 percent of whom favor Trump, while just 24 percent back Clinton.

Read more: http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/fox-news-poll-bernie-sanders-donald-trump-hillary-clinton

129 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Trump beats Clinton by 3 points in new poll (Original Post) Cheese Sandwich May 2016 OP
And there it is runaway hero May 2016 #1
Oh please. It's Fox News. n/t Tarheel_Dem May 2016 #3
Trump is the most disliked candidate runaway hero May 2016 #6
Fivethirtyeight rates the pollsters. Fox News polls always have & always will lean right. Tarheel_Dem May 2016 #10
And 538 always leans Hillary. BillZBubb May 2016 #23
538 isn't often wrong either. Chicago1980 May 2016 #70
What was its prediction for Kentucky and Oregon? JDPriestly May 2016 #91
they were pretty close 0rganism May 2016 #96
The spread is still in Hillary's favor runaway hero May 2016 #34
That is Generally True, On the Road May 2016 #109
Unfavorables BlueNoMatterWho May 2016 #64
Ugly. runaway hero May 2016 #82
Faux News BlueNoMatterWho May 2016 #11
I don't know whether it is a joke or not, but National polls are a joke, since states determine still_one May 2016 #49
They still have Bernie winning like all the other polls yeoman6987 May 2016 #29
and the OP is posting this Republican poll WHY ???? What reason ??? trueblue2007 May 2016 #42
Fascinating how everything coming out of Fox News is dismissed out of hand, except this one poll. Tarheel_Dem May 2016 #48
Everything from Fox RogueTrooper May 2016 #111
Fox News are neo-cons Reter May 2016 #77
Sure its Fox News but check out all the other polls INdemo May 2016 #114
Don't worry. There will be others. tabasco May 2016 #124
That alarm clock has been ringing for four months; but to no avail. forest444 May 2016 #7
How the Hell BlueNoMatterWho May 2016 #12
My point exactly. forest444 May 2016 #20
I agree. runaway hero May 2016 #37
o rtracey May 2016 #115
fox news teams up with trump/sanders 2016. they're trying to get a debate to gang up on HRC msongs May 2016 #2
So in the previous polls, with Clinton ahead, they were teaming up with her? villager May 2016 #5
OMG LOLz tomm2thumbs May 2016 #9
I kind of remember in 2012 that Romney was beating Obama. kimbutgar May 2016 #4
Geez: Hillary is NOT Obama. BillZBubb May 2016 #25
You think so? itcfish May 2016 #119
The nation voted for w bush twice (at least enough for him to "win"). BillZBubb May 2016 #120
You kind of remember wrong tabasco May 2016 #95
right now, youceyec May 2016 #8
Agree BlueNoMatterWho May 2016 #15
Sure they will. Hillary will turn on the charm. BillZBubb May 2016 #26
They're too blind to see the writing on the wall. bunnies May 2016 #56
That's only if you're guess is right. kayakjohnny May 2016 #41
Was "other" not an option? nt bunnies May 2016 #47
Again I think you need to Andy823 May 2016 #13
Well this is a FOX news poll folks: go figure. I don't rely on any of these stupid polls they're all YOHABLO May 2016 #14
When People Actually GO to the polls jamese777 May 2016 #16
All that means NOTHING. That is party primary stuff. BillZBubb May 2016 #27
they didn't like Obama in 2012 either dsc May 2016 #67
That was a race of lesser of two evils. Voter turnout was VERY LOW! RepubliCON-Watch May 2016 #76
President Obama has been the best President of my lifetime rbrnmw May 2016 #100
Same here, but that's not saying much RepubliCON-Watch May 2016 #102
Roughly 4 million more people showed up for the GOP primaries over the Dems LadyHawkAZ May 2016 #88
This needs to considered a trump campaign ad from fox. The_Casual_Observer May 2016 #17
Yep, ignore all bad poll data. It can't be true. BillZBubb May 2016 #30
Well, that's what Romney did and... n/t tom_kelly May 2016 #60
Feel free to lap it up like a rat does with dog droppings... Chicago1980 May 2016 #72
Feel free to go to ignore! BillZBubb May 2016 #79
Fox hasn't been all that friendly toward Trump so far. Beowulf May 2016 #78
Murdock endorsed him yesterday. Thus this poll. The_Casual_Observer May 2016 #84
I'm surprised at the number of people I know who don't want Hillary (and Bill) back in the W.H. jalan48 May 2016 #18
The ones I know won't vote. BillZBubb May 2016 #33
It won't matter SmittynMo May 2016 #19
The poll included 41% GOP and 40% Dems in the sample even though pnwmom May 2016 #21
They also try to weigh it based on enthusiasm madville May 2016 #50
Oh bullshit. This corporate media poll shit doesn't mean diddly shit now anyway. RBInMaine May 2016 #53
Oh, sure thing ailsagirl May 2016 #22
Fox News is actually fairly accurate as a pollster n/t ram2008 May 2016 #24
ram2008 bcglispie May 2016 #58
? n/t ram2008 May 2016 #59
Signed up to vote. NCTraveler Dec 2016 #129
Faux news is pure crap CountAllVotes May 2016 #121
I automatically discount Faux News' polls ailsagirl May 2016 #127
The whole crew there sickens me CountAllVotes May 2016 #128
Look what establishment democrats have brought down upon us. fbc May 2016 #28
Maybe Bernie should have been better at turning those crowds of his into votes. Chicago1980 May 2016 #74
i agree rtracey May 2016 #116
Why even post this - really "Fox News"? packman May 2016 #31
Their polls are legitimate and usually within the margin of error. BillZBubb May 2016 #36
She's a weak candidate. zentrum May 2016 #32
Exactly. Poor candidate for this political environment. BillZBubb May 2016 #38
Yep and whether you agree with this poll or not. zeemike May 2016 #66
I'm a zentrum May 2016 #87
She's not quitting. Kingofalldems May 2016 #35
Well that's great runaway hero May 2016 #40
LOL, they'd have to drag her away in chains. BillZBubb May 2016 #43
Maybe. But of course if Bernie had gotten more votes he would Kingofalldems May 2016 #45
more lies. KNOCK IT OFF. LIES, LIES and LIES trueblue2007 May 2016 #39
What exactly is the lie? BillZBubb May 2016 #44
National polls mean nothing at this point. wisteria May 2016 #46
Hillary has gone down the longer she has been in the spotlight. That trend means something n/t ram2008 May 2016 #51
I'm enjoying predictwise tonight - OhZone May 2016 #52
Did that give you a tingle up your leg? WhiteTara May 2016 #54
LOL Cheese Sandwich May 2016 #61
FoxNewsFoxNewsFoxNews Loki May 2016 #55
so we are quoting faux snooze now? niyad May 2016 #57
Only when it suits the narrative. nt WhiteTara May 2016 #62
It's way beyond time for HRC to tom_kelly May 2016 #63
the one who should quit is bernie rdking647 May 2016 #65
Nuh, uh. tom_kelly May 2016 #68
He has the right to stay in until the last state, Chicago1980 May 2016 #75
Nobody Should Quit jamese777 May 2016 #69
How Soon We Forget! jamese777 May 2016 #71
Yeah, Right. . . Yawn BigDemVoter May 2016 #73
Trump will not be elected in May. RandySF May 2016 #80
2016 resembles staring down a pit and jumping in. gordianot May 2016 #81
"a hypothetical general election match-up" George II May 2016 #83
Appalling. This is what our country has become? AllyCat May 2016 #85
I can do Clinton /Sanders. MFM008 May 2016 #86
Because it's more important for today's 3rd way Democratic party to risk President Trump .... raindaddy May 2016 #89
And loses by up to 13 points Jeb Bartlet May 2016 #90
It IS a Fox Poll after all .......... marble falls May 2016 #92
AND THE TREND IS ... NEGATIVE !!!! Hillary ... KPN May 2016 #93
Everyone Relax! CalmaPlease May 2016 #94
We are nominating the weaker candidate davidn3600 May 2016 #97
Hmmmm nwduke May 2016 #98
Not good, not good Jack Rabbit May 2016 #99
MSM said the same thing about McCain in 2008 underthematrix May 2016 #101
^^^^ Egnever May 2016 #103
Not really. imari362 May 2016 #104
Sorry no offense but you're wrong. They reported wingnut polls underthematrix May 2016 #106
It's ok...I didn't take offense. imari362 May 2016 #108
wow. already. nt silvershadow May 2016 #105
"Clinton rival Bernie Sanders, meanwhile, leads Trump 46 to 42, according to the same poll..." NewImproved Deal May 2016 #107
because rtracey May 2016 #117
Message auto-removed Name removed May 2016 #110
I've invented a new word - Hillogical Android3.14 May 2016 #112
A Fox poll???? wisteria May 2016 #113
Trump leads Clinton by 5 points in Rasmussen poll MowCowWhoHow III May 2016 #118
Another poll shows her behind Trump by 5 points, so this IS a trend.... ViseGrip May 2016 #122
The Nazis are back! dmosh42 May 2016 #123
I would have expected better of DU. This is a Fox News Poll BigDemVoter May 2016 #125
Within the poll you're touting... LenaBaby61 May 2016 #126

runaway hero

(835 posts)
6. Trump is the most disliked candidate
Wed May 18, 2016, 08:43 PM
May 2016

You know who is number two. I'm voting for her 100 percent. Not sure about my extended family.

On the Road

(20,783 posts)
109. That is Generally True,
Thu May 19, 2016, 04:34 AM
May 2016

but in the 2000 election, Fox had the candidates dead even and ended up being the closest to actuals.

 

BlueNoMatterWho

(880 posts)
11. Faux News
Wed May 18, 2016, 08:48 PM
May 2016

Fox News is a joke. I for the life of me can't figure out why this poll is so highly rated by FiveThirtyEight.

still_one

(92,115 posts)
49. I don't know whether it is a joke or not, but National polls are a joke, since states determine
Wed May 18, 2016, 09:21 PM
May 2016

Presidential Elections.

These national polls do not sync up with the states meaningfully in the way they are done. Hillary is ahead in the primaries. She has received more votes than any other candidate. She also has more pledged delegates.

What also skews the national polls is that many of the Sanders supporters do not affiliate themselves with the Democratic party, and I would suspect some misidentify themselves also.

If it makes some feel better to post garbage polls, either thinking it will change people's minds, or just needle some, that's fine. Whatever gets them going.

I prefer to deal with reality

Tarheel_Dem

(31,228 posts)
48. Fascinating how everything coming out of Fox News is dismissed out of hand, except this one poll.
Wed May 18, 2016, 09:20 PM
May 2016

No agenda there, right?

RogueTrooper

(4,665 posts)
111. Everything from Fox
Thu May 19, 2016, 05:44 AM
May 2016

Except material boosting Bernie; then it becomes the font of truth and wisdom.

Fox News: Proof that even a broken watch is, sometimes, not right twice a day.

INdemo

(6,994 posts)
114. Sure its Fox News but check out all the other polls
Thu May 19, 2016, 07:34 AM
May 2016

and on average Trump is ahead of Hillary.
The Debbie Wassermann Schultz is making a big mistake by anointing Hillary as the nominee.

 

tabasco

(22,974 posts)
124. Don't worry. There will be others.
Thu May 19, 2016, 01:55 PM
May 2016

Republicans are rallying around the "strong leader," while half of all Democrats and most independents can't stand H. Clinton.

forest444

(5,902 posts)
7. That alarm clock has been ringing for four months; but to no avail.
Wed May 18, 2016, 08:43 PM
May 2016

Last edited Wed May 18, 2016, 09:31 PM - Edit history (1)

Hillary voters just keep hitting the snooze button.

Perhaps Gary Johnson will end up saving the day for her (and, lest we forget, for us all).

forest444

(5,902 posts)
20. My point exactly.
Wed May 18, 2016, 08:59 PM
May 2016

As I see it, the only sure way Ms. Inevitable can win in November, is with our buddy Gary running a strong Libertarian campaign - especially if he gets a little help from some of the GOP bigwigs.

And as much as I dislike the former Secretary, she is, as Bernie likes to point out, a thousand times better than the prospect of having the Republicans retake the White House.

Go, Gary. Go!

runaway hero

(835 posts)
37. I agree.
Wed May 18, 2016, 09:15 PM
May 2016

I support Hillary, but you can just cut the tension with a knife every time you watch TV. It's sad.

 

rtracey

(2,062 posts)
115. o
Thu May 19, 2016, 08:20 AM
May 2016

O well, we tried, lets just fold up the tents and walk over the mountain. Fox news had a poll and the republican won....hmmmmm really All Hail the commander in chief Donald Trump.... sound good folks? NO is doesn't well GET OFF THE PISSY LITTLE BABY SHIT AND START SUPPORTING SOMETHING INSTEAD OF THE BULLSHIT VITRIOL. If not, you will be watching Trump take the oath.....

kimbutgar

(21,103 posts)
4. I kind of remember in 2012 that Romney was beating Obama.
Wed May 18, 2016, 08:42 PM
May 2016

These polls re only meant to persuade us to vote for trump or scare us into voting for Hillary. I will be voting for whoever the democratic candidate is. Trump is a crazy man who has no business being near the White House.

BillZBubb

(10,650 posts)
25. Geez: Hillary is NOT Obama.
Wed May 18, 2016, 09:08 PM
May 2016

She is not liked at all by independents. This will be a very close race whatever the Faux poll says.

itcfish

(1,828 posts)
119. You think so?
Thu May 19, 2016, 10:00 AM
May 2016

Than this country is in sad shape if that many people will vote for Trump. Nobody can save this nation.

BillZBubb

(10,650 posts)
120. The nation voted for w bush twice (at least enough for him to "win").
Thu May 19, 2016, 10:12 AM
May 2016

The nation will survive trump if worst comes to worst. We survived w.

Democrats can't comprehend the amount of dislike for Hillary in the country. It's there, it's real, and trump will be the beneficiary.

The election is going to be about who the voters dislike the least. It's going to be dirty and nasty. It's going to be a lot closer than Democrats would like to believe.


 

youceyec

(394 posts)
8. right now,
Wed May 18, 2016, 08:44 PM
May 2016

a lot of sanders supporters are saying TRUMP to interviewers out of spite. They will come around in the end.

 

bunnies

(15,859 posts)
56. They're too blind to see the writing on the wall.
Wed May 18, 2016, 09:31 PM
May 2016

They think it's business as usual. Even still. And maybe the corporocrat will even win this time. But maybe people are waking the fuck up.

kayakjohnny

(5,235 posts)
41. That's only if you're guess is right.
Wed May 18, 2016, 09:16 PM
May 2016

Some people might want to see the country burn big, since it will burn anyway.

 

YOHABLO

(7,358 posts)
14. Well this is a FOX news poll folks: go figure. I don't rely on any of these stupid polls they're all
Wed May 18, 2016, 08:50 PM
May 2016

fallible. Why don't we give it a rest on polls till the 'general', and then just take them with a grain of salt.

jamese777

(546 posts)
16. When People Actually GO to the polls
Wed May 18, 2016, 08:54 PM
May 2016

Primaries' total popular vote as of May 18th
Hillary Clinton: 13,177,734 (55.5% of the Democratic vote)
Donald Trump: 11,236,652
Bernie Sanders: 10,131,732 (42.7% of the Democratic vote)

Clinton over Sanders: 3,046,002
Clinton over Trump: 1,941,082

Hillary Clinton: 1,771 pledged delegates
Bernie Sanders: 1,499 pledged delegates

Hillary Clinton: 504 superdelegates
Bernie Sanders: 41 superdelegates

Hillary Clinton: 2,275 total delegates
Bernie Sanders: 1,539 total delegates

Hillary Clinton: 26 contests won
Bernie Sanders: 21 contests won

BillZBubb

(10,650 posts)
27. All that means NOTHING. That is party primary stuff.
Wed May 18, 2016, 09:11 PM
May 2016

The general election will be won with independents. They don't like Hillary.

 

RepubliCON-Watch

(559 posts)
76. That was a race of lesser of two evils. Voter turnout was VERY LOW!
Wed May 18, 2016, 10:30 PM
May 2016

I guess it is true, Republicans/DINOs win when voter turnout is low.

 

RepubliCON-Watch

(559 posts)
102. Same here, but that's not saying much
Thu May 19, 2016, 01:27 AM
May 2016

I've only lived through 3 presidents haha. Obama's been decent but I expected more; I was hoping for him to fight for more pro-working class positions and he sold us out a few times. Otherwise, a'ight I guess.

LadyHawkAZ

(6,199 posts)
88. Roughly 4 million more people showed up for the GOP primaries over the Dems
Wed May 18, 2016, 11:22 PM
May 2016

Clinton only had one viable opponent; Trump had three. That's where your Hillmath has a lil' problem. Those voters that voted Cruz, Rubio and Kasich (and the million or so that went Carson and Bush)? They will not be voting for Clinton. They will be voting for Trump, probably close to all 27 million of them. Republicans tend to lockstep.

Roughly 23 million have voted in the Democratic primaries; 10 million of those voters went Sanders, almost all of whom the Real Democrats™ are doing their damndest to alienate, insult and smear. Not all of these will be voting for Clinton, even with her bestest buddy doing his bestest Evil Tyrant impression for the opposition. Democrats do not lockstep. They have to be persuaded.

Your candidate got 55% of 31% of the population.
Trump got 40% of 25%.

Trump's party members will back him en mass. Clinton's will not.
Trump appeals to independents. Clinton does not, and in fact has actively pushed them away because they lean Sanders.

We'd be lucky if it's just 3%.

Beowulf

(761 posts)
78. Fox hasn't been all that friendly toward Trump so far.
Wed May 18, 2016, 10:40 PM
May 2016

I expect that to change, but at this point they at most ambivalent towards him.

jalan48

(13,853 posts)
18. I'm surprised at the number of people I know who don't want Hillary (and Bill) back in the W.H.
Wed May 18, 2016, 08:56 PM
May 2016

And these are long time Democrats. They won't vote for Trump so I'm not sure what their plans are if Hillary gets the nomination.

BillZBubb

(10,650 posts)
33. The ones I know won't vote.
Wed May 18, 2016, 09:13 PM
May 2016

Solid blue staters or solid red staters have that option. I'm glad I do too.

pnwmom

(108,973 posts)
21. The poll included 41% GOP and 40% Dems in the sample even though
Wed May 18, 2016, 09:00 PM
May 2016

more people identify as Dems than as GOP.

And they didn't weight by party. So it isn't surprising that this sample would produce this result.

madville

(7,408 posts)
50. They also try to weigh it based on enthusiasm
Wed May 18, 2016, 09:22 PM
May 2016

It's obvious the GOP is more enthusiastic about turning out for Trump than Democrats are about turning out for Clinton. The numbers sampled may be a reflection of that aspect.

CountAllVotes

(20,868 posts)
121. Faux news is pure crap
Thu May 19, 2016, 12:37 PM
May 2016

You'd be wise to spend your money on something else, anything at all will do.

Faux news sucks!



ailsagirl

(22,893 posts)
127. I automatically discount Faux News' polls
Thu May 19, 2016, 07:48 PM
May 2016

Ever since I realized that the repuke candidates were ALWAYS ahead of the Dems

CountAllVotes

(20,868 posts)
128. The whole crew there sickens me
Fri May 20, 2016, 01:08 AM
May 2016

I can't stand to watch it and dumped cable TV a few years ago (99 channels and nothing on; best channel = The Pet Channel). It was costing me close to $80 a month for that.

Today I have limited cable for $25 a month. You don't get FAUX news for the $25/month. No Pet Channel though.

Good riddance!



Chicago1980

(1,968 posts)
74. Maybe Bernie should have been better at turning those crowds of his into votes.
Wed May 18, 2016, 10:21 PM
May 2016

The DNC didn't stop people from registering as democrats in closed primaries.

 

rtracey

(2,062 posts)
116. i agree
Thu May 19, 2016, 08:24 AM
May 2016

I agree, so if Bernie's crowds were ALWAYS, ALWAYS larger then Clinton's, then why the fewer votes, where are the voters who claim they are supporting Bernie, why are they not voting..... this statement is true... THE DNC DID NOT STOP ANYONE FROM REGISTERING TO VOTE.

zentrum

(9,865 posts)
32. She's a weak candidate.
Wed May 18, 2016, 09:12 PM
May 2016

Last edited Wed May 18, 2016, 10:42 PM - Edit history (1)

A strong person. But a weak candidate. Very distrusted and disliked. It's sort of a race to the bottom. Which candidate in November will be the least disliked—HRC or Trump?

The DNC/DLC have run the party into the ground by so ignoring and/or expelling so much of its progressive base.

They'll blame Bernie of course. But he actually represents the revival of the party.

zeemike

(18,998 posts)
66. Yep and whether you agree with this poll or not.
Wed May 18, 2016, 09:46 PM
May 2016

It is obvious sense the GOP is running the worst possible candidate and she is having a hard time beating him in any poll.

But if she loses they have an excuse...those damn Bernie supporters.
So it is never their fault.

zentrum

(9,865 posts)
87. I'm a
Wed May 18, 2016, 10:53 PM
May 2016

…..woman for Bernie and so feel I can say: The other thing that drives me crazy about the HRC camp is their faux feminist accusations of sexism against Bernie.

A New Yorker article of several months ago talked about how HRC has used the woman victim motif going all the way back to the days when she was criticized for conflict of interest in Arkansas. It wasn't the conflict she would say—it was that she was being picked on because she was a woman.

Drives me crazy.

Because it hurts feminism. Besides, I never met a true feminist yet who was for that ruinous, illegal war in Iraq.

BillZBubb

(10,650 posts)
43. LOL, they'd have to drag her away in chains.
Wed May 18, 2016, 09:17 PM
May 2016

Of course she's not quitting. But trump may get to say "You're Fired".

 

wisteria

(19,581 posts)
46. National polls mean nothing at this point.
Wed May 18, 2016, 09:19 PM
May 2016

It would help though if the Clinton bashing came to an end. Democrsts shouldn't be repeating RW lies and smears about Clinton.

tom_kelly

(957 posts)
63. It's way beyond time for HRC to
Wed May 18, 2016, 09:39 PM
May 2016

bow out of the race. She's only dragging the party down and ensuring that we'll be watching DT innaugerated next Jan. Regardless of what anyone else says, I say she's being selfish. Any other candidate would do this. I put it on her supporters to get the message to her campaign that its over. Pack it up.

 

rdking647

(5,113 posts)
65. the one who should quit is bernie
Wed May 18, 2016, 09:45 PM
May 2016

the fact is he wont be the nomineee. period.. and his continued campaign is just dragging down the dems.

its time for bernie to face reality. he has almost zero chance of being teh next president

tom_kelly

(957 posts)
68. Nuh, uh.
Wed May 18, 2016, 10:00 PM
May 2016

The one who should quit is HRC. The fact is she won't win. Period. Her continuing her campaign will hurt the party for years. Reality has to be faced by HRC. Her becoming president will never happen. There.

Chicago1980

(1,968 posts)
75. He has the right to stay in until the last state,
Wed May 18, 2016, 10:23 PM
May 2016

just like Clinton did in 2008.

Please stop calling for his exit. There's one month worth of primaries and there's noting wrong with fairness.

jamese777

(546 posts)
69. Nobody Should Quit
Wed May 18, 2016, 10:05 PM
May 2016

Let the rest of the primaries play out.

Hillary Clinton only needs 91 more delegates to wrap it up.
California alone has 548 delegates up for grabs on June 7th (475 pledged delegates and 73 superdelegates).

jamese777

(546 posts)
71. How Soon We Forget!
Wed May 18, 2016, 10:15 PM
May 2016

And this was from OCTOBER, 2012, not six months before the election

Romney opens up 7-point lead over Obama, as electoral map begins to shift

Mitt Romney's national lead over President Obama grew even more Thursday, with the latest Gallup survey showing the Republican nominee up 7 points -- as polling in the battlegrounds indicates the electoral map may be shifting in Romney's favor.

In a significant development, the RealClearPolitics electoral map, which offers predictions of which states favor which candidates, for the first time is showing Romney ahead in terms of electoral votes he is likely to win on Nov. 6.

Obama had a big advantage over Romney for months in those projections. But in the past few weeks, states thought to favor Obama like New Hampshire and Pennsylvania were moved into the "toss-up" column. Meanwhile, RCP just moved North Carolina from "toss up" to "leans Romney." The projections -- while subject to change any time of any day -- show Romney with a likely 206 electoral votes and Obama with 201. That leaves another 131 electoral votes up for grabs in the battlegrounds.

The projection challenges the narrative that the electoral map inherently favors Obama because it contains so many reliably Democratic states. The race is starting to look much more competitive, both in swing state and national polls.

The national Gallup survey, which is based on a seven-day rolling average and was updated Thursday, showed Romney leading 52-45 percent. At the start of October, he was tied with Obama at 48 percent each.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/10/18/romney-opens-up-7-point-lead-over-obama-as-campaigns-hunker-down-in-swing.html

gordianot

(15,237 posts)
81. 2016 resembles staring down a pit and jumping in.
Wed May 18, 2016, 10:45 PM
May 2016

When you bump into the wall you know you are stiill alive. I look forward at a future date to seeing how and who is really responsible for this mess. Whatever else it was not Sanders fault.

AllyCat

(16,174 posts)
85. Appalling. This is what our country has become?
Wed May 18, 2016, 10:51 PM
May 2016

I think not. I have to believe not. But this does not make me feel good about our process or many of our fellow citizens.

MFM008

(19,803 posts)
86. I can do Clinton /Sanders.
Wed May 18, 2016, 10:52 PM
May 2016

Ive been thinking about this all day.

He was asked and he did not say NO.
She is really downplaying all of this.
Notice he has backed off her
No use in arguing for him as president, he doesn't have the delegates and if he doesn't want Trump like he says
he will have to accept.
No ones ecstatic but he gets a front seat to his revolution
everyone gets on board
Trump loses in a landslide.
It may be the only way out.

raindaddy

(1,370 posts)
89. Because it's more important for today's 3rd way Democratic party to risk President Trump ....
Wed May 18, 2016, 11:25 PM
May 2016

and not ruffle the feathers of the Wall Street banks and global corporations than nominating a populist candidate who will be their worst nightmare...

KPN

(15,641 posts)
93. AND THE TREND IS ... NEGATIVE !!!! Hillary ...
Wed May 18, 2016, 11:35 PM
May 2016

is eroding in the polls, like she did with Obama. This is not a good sign.

Hillary is a weak candidate and getting weaker! Yikes!

CalmaPlease

(3 posts)
94. Everyone Relax!
Wed May 18, 2016, 11:39 PM
May 2016

First, do yourself a favor and go look at the RCP Averages for Clinton vs Trump all the way back to last year. Next, observe the following:

-Trump has led Clinton in individual polls 7 times

-Of those 7, Fox conducted half of them and they were always an outlier relative to the rest of the polls in that time frame.

-Each of these seven polls were conducted immediately after big surges in Trump headlines ( Super Tuesday Wins, North East Primaries, Debates etc)

-Similarly, you will notice HRC's biggest + variances were for polls taken in the midst of or immediately after huge primary wins (note Super Tuesday time frame)

-Curiously, Rasmussen conducted a poll 4/25-4/26 right in the middle of Trump's huge North East primary and media narrative wins. apparently, he did not like the results and conducted another poll over the following 2 days in which he finally gets a Trump +2. lol

So the latest Fox News + Rasmussen polls are really skewing the rolling average and not surprisingly, the media is driving poll hysteria and nonsense narratives which are trying to make sweeping conclusions about Trump being unstoppable.

Take a step back and imagine we had a real time poll second by second of likely voters. At this stage in the cycle, the vast majority of low information voters would be swayed by headlines and media narratives. If you subjectively pick your sample data points, I wouldnt be surprised to see Trump or Hillary up by +15 and any given point.

So what's the takeaway? Calma! Relax! Focus on trends as more and more data comes in. Ignore short term narratives. Hillary is still leading Bernie by more votes than Trump led Cruz. Bernie is not going to win the nomination.

Reference:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html#polls
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/republican_vote_count.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/democratic_vote_count.html
https://www.gop.com/2016-gophq/event_schedule/?schedule_type=debate

 

davidn3600

(6,342 posts)
97. We are nominating the weaker candidate
Thu May 19, 2016, 12:09 AM
May 2016

Hope everyone is comfortable with that. Polls are consistent that Bernie would do better than Hillary against Trump.

Jack Rabbit

(45,984 posts)
99. Not good, not good
Thu May 19, 2016, 12:27 AM
May 2016

Can the people have their party back now? We can run it better than Ivy League educated idiots.

imari362

(311 posts)
104. Not really.
Thu May 19, 2016, 02:09 AM
May 2016
General Election: McCain vs. Obama

Only two fox polls had McCain leading Obama, one done 4/28 - 4/29 and one 9/8 - 9/9 but never more than 3....
All of the rest of the polls done by fox from May 6/17 - 6/18 to November 11/1 - 11/2 had Obama up by as much as 9

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html#polls

General Election: Romney vs. Obama

A fox poll done 5/13 - 5/15 had Obama up by 7.
Then
A fox poll done 6/3 - 6/5 had it as a tie.
But another..
fox poll done 6/24 - 6/26 had Obama up by 5.

Romney by 1...8/19 - 8/21 and 8/19 - 8/21
Back to a tie...10/28 - 10/30 which was basically the same as several other polls done about the same time.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html#polls

underthematrix

(5,811 posts)
106. Sorry no offense but you're wrong. They reported wingnut polls
Thu May 19, 2016, 02:42 AM
May 2016

suggesting Romney was going to beat PBO. Fox was actually shocked and confused when Romney lost. There's video

imari362

(311 posts)
108. It's ok...I didn't take offense.
Thu May 19, 2016, 02:52 AM
May 2016

Actually it wasn't "fox news that was shocked" it was only Karl Rove and the host..I think Megan Kelly...had to go backstage to the count room or something like that to get it from the people who's job it is to know the count and who actually won...which was Obama.

I didn't need a video, I saw it as it happened....it was hilarious seeing Rove have a meltdown.

Also, I was really into watching political news on cable tv back then and it wasn't the MSM reporting Romney leads it was the MSM reporting how folks like Rove and some rightwing pollsters were saying all of the polls showing Obama beating Romney was skewered toward Obama and thus wrong, it was so bad til Romney himself was even believing it.

Some folks bubble is too thick to let anything burst it, but reality always will.

 

NewImproved Deal

(534 posts)
107. "Clinton rival Bernie Sanders, meanwhile, leads Trump 46 to 42, according to the same poll..."
Thu May 19, 2016, 02:52 AM
May 2016

Go, Bernie! Why settle for the lesser Oligarch?

[link:|

 

rtracey

(2,062 posts)
117. because
Thu May 19, 2016, 08:30 AM
May 2016

Because you guys talk a big game but your crowd are not producing the voters. Its nice to go to a rally and jump and scream, but when the vote counts you have had less people show up. Funny, but think about it, Sanders has had massive crowds in all his rallies, and all actually voted, he would be winning...

Response to Cheese Sandwich (Original post)

 

Android3.14

(5,402 posts)
112. I've invented a new word - Hillogical
Thu May 19, 2016, 06:27 AM
May 2016

It's the mishmash of logical fallacies a supporter of Hillary Clinton uses to justify voting and supporting a lying, war-mongering candidate whose campaign has weakened Democracy and strengthened the corporate control of American politics.

Example - "Another DU sockpuppet engaged in hillogical reasoning when he said all the many polls showing Clinton is a weak candidate are unreliable because a Bernie supporter found a single Fox News poll showing the same conclusion."

 

wisteria

(19,581 posts)
113. A Fox poll????
Thu May 19, 2016, 07:05 AM
May 2016

Lol, they are never right.

You would only use this poll if you were desperate to make a point.

MowCowWhoHow III

(2,103 posts)
118. Trump leads Clinton by 5 points in Rasmussen poll
Thu May 19, 2016, 09:30 AM
May 2016
Trump leads Clinton by 5 points in Rasmussen poll

Presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump has increased his lead over Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton, according to a new Rasmussen Reports poll released Thursday.

Trump now leads the front-runner by five points, 42 to 37 percent. The poll also found that 13 percent of respondents prefer another candidate and seven percent were undecided.

The new poll differs somewhat from recent polling, which shows Clinton holding a slim lead. According to the RealClearPolitics average of polls, Clinton has a 3.9-point lead over Trump, 46.2 to 42.3 percent. But Trump led a Fox News national poll released Wednesday by three points.

A Rasmussen poll released at the beginning of the month showed Trump leading Clinton by two points.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/280493-trump-leads-clinton-by-5-points-in-rasmussen-poll

BigDemVoter

(4,149 posts)
125. I would have expected better of DU. This is a Fox News Poll
Thu May 19, 2016, 04:53 PM
May 2016

We all know here that had this been a poll showing President Obama behind Mittens, EVERYBODY would have screamed that it was an erroneous poll. Number 1, we have an electoral system, so HOWEVER this ridiculous and untrue poll shows the election going, Trump isn't going to win the electoral vote anyway.

#2. . . . Where are they getting these numbers? WHO is responding? How are they conducting their poll? In the past, Rasmussen has been repeatedly and consistently accused of "baking the numbers" meaning they pull a disproportionate number of respondents from those who have "only land lines." Yeah, right.

LenaBaby61

(6,974 posts)
126. Within the poll you're touting...
Thu May 19, 2016, 05:11 PM
May 2016

Bernie Sanders once healthy 14 point lead over Trump is now down to 4, (MINUS 10 points) since you're touting this Fox News Poll.

You'd have to also believe that Trump has shaved 10 points off Bernie Sanders lead over him which was recently 14 points.

Latest Discussions»Latest Breaking News»Trump beats Clinton by 3 ...