U.S. Unemployment Claims Fell Sharply Last Week

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Source: The Wall Street Journal.

By Eric Morath

May 19, 2016 8:31 a.m. ET

WASHINGTON—The number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits fell sharply last week, a sign layoffs are stabilizing after touching a 15-month high.

Initial jobless claims, a measure of layoffs throughout the U.S., declined by 16,000 to a seasonally adjusted 278,000 in the week ended May 14, the Labor Department said Thursday.

Read more: http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-unemployment-claims-fell-sharply-last-week-1463661109

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Subscription. I can get the story from MarketWatch when they get around to posting it there. That's a Dow Jones outfit too.

Here we go:

Jobless claims sink 16,000 to 278,000

Published: May 19, 2016 8:40 a.m. ET

By Jeffry Bartash
Reporter

Applications drop off after spike related to spring break in New York

The number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits in mid-May fell by 16,000 to 278,000 — with most of the drop concentrated in New York — in a reassuring sign the labor market is still fairly healthy.

Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected claims to fall to 270,000 in the period stretching from May 8 to May 14. Figures are seasonally adjusted. ... Initial jobless claims had risen three straight weeks to a 14-month high, capped off by sharp 20,000 increase in the first week of May.

Yet the spike last week turned out to stem from an unusual law in New York that allows bus drivers, cafeteria workers and similar school employees to seek benefits for the week of work they miss during spring break for students. Spring break in most of New York took place at the end of April.

Raw or unadjusted jobless claims in New York plunged 47% last week to 17,261, returning to a similar level before spring break. Applications for benefits has nearly doubled in the first week of May to 33,006.

Spring break in New York? That's what it said.

[raging moderate]

1. Thanks, Obama.

And thanks, fellow Democrats. And fellow leftists.

[Helen Borg]

2. These data are crap statistical noise!

Anyone who has experience observing timeseries generated by complex system would recognize that this first derivative kind of data are just noise! Yes, one month goes up, one month goes down. Even worse when you sample more quickly.

[whatthehey]

3. Just like it was when it went up last week, no?

That's why sensible people watch the trendline of the 4wk moving average, which shows a clear declining trend over 1 and 5 year timeframes

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/IC4WSA

[Helen Borg]

5. Yes, long-term trends are much more meaningful.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

4. Granted. Here's the link to DOL.

https://www.dol.gov/sites/default/files/documents/newsroom/releases/eta/20161025.pdf

Employment and Training Administration (ETA)