Poll: Clinton up 10 points among likely California voters

[youceyec]

Source: CNN

A new California poll finds Hillary Clinton leading Bernie Sanders by 10 points among likely voters ahead of the state's primary next week, a sharp difference from other recent polls in the state.

Read more: http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/02/politics/california-tight-poll-democratic-race/

---

This is a brand new poll. Of course biased media says sanders in lead by 1. Likely voters more accurate than just polling all dems.

[pnwmom]

1. Turnout will be key. And how many of the non-affiliateds vote, and how many

who think they are "independents" are actually registered to the American Independent Party and not eligible to vote in the Democratic.

[SunSeeker]

12. I know a guy like that. He got his mail ballot and it says he's registered AIP.

He said he signed up that way decades ago because he liked the name and didn't want to sign up as a Republican or a Democrat. I told him AIP is a wack job anti-abortion party. He had no idea. But he didn't seem to care; said he never votes in primaries and did not send in his ballot.

[Chasstev365]

2. She will eek out a win, but it will be close!

[George II]

8. Outlier? There have been a couple of polls in the last two weeks showing her up ~18 points.

[Doctor Jack]

10. Berniemath says that 1 in 5 is a majority

If one poll shows a time out of five that one is correct. The other 4 are due to the FUCKING NEOLIBERAL DLC MAINSTREAM MEDIA BLACKING HIM OUT!!!!

[puffy socks]

59. ...

[AntiBank]

27. too bad both of those were from Encino and Sherman Oaks middle schools

[JDPriestly]

31. She won 65% in 2008. In my neighborhood everyone is for Bernie.

[AtomicKitten]

5. There are a shit-ton of new voters not included in that poll. Just sayin'.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512111114

[Ellipsis]

45. I saw 845,000+ ...and that was still a week before the deadline to register

[Jesus Malverde]

6. They are going to discourage the working voters who vote in the last three hours

https://m.

[Pharaoh]

43. yup

and it won't be over till the superdelegates vote at the convention because she will not have enough pledged delegates! Fucking media pisses me off to no end.

[Wibly]

7. Poll missing vital info

I think there is probably a very good reason why they are not publishing the method of the poll, or the numbers of people polled.
Wonder what that could be.

[hopemountain]

29. maybe same pollster predicitng romney was

far, far ahead of president obama.

[SunSeeker]

9. K & R

[LiberalElite]

13. Keep telling yourself that. nt

[romanic]

14. It must be that magic.

And by magic I mean bias and trickery.

[LibDemAlways]

15. Bernie will win California. This poll is Bullshit.

[pnwmom]

17. It doesn't matter who wins CA. Bernie won't win the majority of pledged delegates

because to do that he'd have to win 67% of all remaining pledged delegates -- and he's only achieved that percent in one state primary: Vermont's.

All of his "big" wins were in white caucus states that don't resemble CA at all.

As it is, the AP is very likely to announce that he has a majority of all delegates, pledged and superdelegates, after the voting ends in N.J. -- because Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands will have already voted and he only needs 71 votes to reach the total needed. This has been how the AP has called elections since superdelegates were created, in 1984.

[DonRedwood]

21. :0)

I've been enjoying your responses on a lot of posts lately!

[Omaha Steve]

24. OOPS!

I wonder why Hillary cancelled NJ rallies to go to CA since it will be over after NJ according everybody Hillary.

[pnwmom]

25. It's a more productive use of her limited time. n/t

[Omaha Steve]

26. Productive when she is in GE mode to run to a state that doesn't matter?

That makes good sense.

[pnwmom]

28. She has already started running for the General, so it matters for that.

But the outcome won't change the primary result.

[Omaha Steve]

36. CA is a blue state no matter what candidate gets the nomination

Her actions show her it is over isn't what her team thinks.

[Laser102]

38. She can do both. Walk and chew gum.

[Omaha Steve]

39. Clearly she is worried about CA & the supers flipping effect

[MFM008]

52. Sigh

Super delegates are not going to flip.

[Omaha Steve]

54. Those that are elected in states Bernie won are deciding to stay home from the convention

Brad Ashford isn't the only one that endorsed her last year and decided to stay home. But Hillary and the press are still counting him even though he won't be there to vote for Hillary.

She loses CA, she has a problem for several reasons. Sigh.

[LoverOfLiberty]

44. Why, to irritate Berners n/t

[wisteria]

18. And whay if he does?

I doubt he will, but even if he wins, he will not be the nominee.

[stopbush]

34. Hillary will win by at least 7 points.

Wouldn't be surprised if it's a double digit win.

[StevieM]

35. Given the demographics of the state I expect a win for Hillary Clinton.

We will know in five days.

I think it is silly to call a poll bullsh*t just because it projects a victory for one candidate or another.

[indivisibleman]

16. how sad.

I guess this country will get what they deserve.

[DonRedwood]

22. agreed! they will get the person who got the most votes.

one of the best parts about democracy!

[indivisibleman]

50. Primaries are hardly democratic. n/t

[McKim]

19. They said the same about Oregon

They said the same thing about Oregon, but Sanders won. Maybe this is a voter discouraging strategy.

[hopemountain]

30. ding ding ding winner winner chicken dinner nt

[catchnrelease]

20. So confusing!

This afternoon on NPR they said that two new polls out this week had Clinton up by only 2 points, within the margin of error. Unfortunately I didn't hear who did those polls, if they said.

[Cassiopeia]

23. Want some salt?

[Gene Debs]

32. Any day now a poll will come out showing Clinton winning California by 128%.

[azurnoir]

33. this is CNN who brought us sky's darkened with chairs in NV they they spun a poll where Hillary lost

Take note of questions 21,22, and 30 inparticular

https://gqrr.app.box.com/s/xcuxiz76cj9ff0a5v4a1ruwo9gl0u566

[dorkzilla]

40. VERY interesting!

Thanks for sharing!

[SansACause]

37. She'll win the nomination before CA is called.

New Jersey closes hours before CA, so she'll go over the delegate count needed to be the nominee then. CA would be nice to win, but mostly irrelevant at that point.

[HeartoftheMidwest]

41. Nothing is decided until the convention.

The haste with which Clinton is being coronated is a Karl Rove strategy: declare the victory in advance of the actual clear count, then pound that message home through all media outlets that will take the bait ( or that you own outright. ) Get some of your top political supporters to keep repeating the message too, til people begin to believe it.

There are still states that need to vote, and most independent, non-partisan projections show neither candidate will have enough delegates to win outright. So please stop trying to shorten the process ( I sympathize; it's been painful ) and stop disregarding the rights and votes of Americans who have yet to vote.

[youceyec]

63. Was Obama using Rove strategy in 08?

No. He was declared nominee by media as soon he hit total delegate count. Same thing will happen now.

But among BS supporters and some others, Hillary should be subject to different rules, of course.

Not to mention Hillary is way more ahead than Obama was when he clinched.

Why the double standard? Sexism. Sorry if that makes you upset. You all likely aren't even aware of it. All other objective reasons would point to there being no controversy about her being nominee.

[HeartoftheMidwest]

64. That's rich.

Thanks for mansplainin' that to me.

I was told in sixth grade I couldn't take shop, cause that's only for boys. I HAD to take Home Ec.

I was told in seventh grade not to sign up for Algebra, cause I wasn't gonna need it; but all the boys got to sign up for it. Take typing, they said, cause you'll need that if you ever get a job.

I was told in high school that even though I found Physics enchanting, I couldn't take it...cause I didn't have the math requirement for it. And it was really a subject for boys anyway.

Sexism? Yay, gender card!!!

You know why the delegate count matters now? Because it's gracious and RIGHT and proper to allow everyone to finish casting their votes before you announce. If I lived in any of the states and territories that had yet to vote or caucus, I'd take that as a GIANT middle finger from the Democratic Party.
EVEN after a member of the DNC said there would be no superdelegates included in the total until at least July 25th.

So you know what I'm doing this afternoon, after 40 years of being a loyal and true member of the Democratic party since 1976? I'm going to change my party affiliation to Independent, here in lovely Madison, Wisconsin.

And from this day forward, F**K the Democratic party.
( Still going to Fighting Bob Fest, at Breese Stevens, though! )

Oh, and to head off the inevitable, "Hillary needs to pivot to the General Election" nonsense; she needs to prepare to fight Trump like she'd need to prepare to fight Kim Kardashian. Trump's gonna implode under his own hubris, in short order.

[youceyec]

65. again

why should everything be different for Hillary? Media called Obama nominee once he had the delegates. You want media to treat the first woman nominee differently. Why?

So relax and don't do stupid stuff.

[HeartoftheMidwest]

66. Not doing anything stupid.

Just watching the true colors of "my party" over the last few election cycles, and it's all there for the observant to see: the Democratic party is the "Blue Republican" party now. The only difference between the parties now is that most of the religious crazies are on the Republican side. My view is more nuanced than that. There are GOOD people in the Democratic party, and they're worth fighting for, and worth supporting with sweat and with dollars, but they're fewer and farther between more than ever.

And while the Repubs are hell-bent on destroying everything in their path, too many Dems are just sitting back and watching it happen.

[Cryptoad]

42. Sweetest part is,,,

CA dont matter,,, HRC45 will clinch teh nomination in NJ before the poll s close in CA!

[MFM008]

53. The AP will call this

As soon as they can.
They called Trump
They will call Clinton
Berners. will remain annoyed.

[CountAllVotes]

46. CNN = Clinton News Network

Expect nothing but the truth!

[RoccoR5955]

47. That's right, and the mainstream media will make sure that she wins

by announcing that she is the winner at 8pm Eastern time, thus suppressing the vote.

[Lil Missy]

55. And it wouldn't matter - since it will already be clear that she won.

Otherwise it would be "too close to call" or "too early to call". If they say "Hillary won CA", then it means she has the majority of votes.

[RoccoR5955]

56. Only problem is that the polls will not have been closed

and THAT suppresses the vote. People feel that their vote will not count in CA, and will not show up to vote.
This is just WRONG! For either candidate it is WRONG!

[Lil Missy]

57. I see what you mean.

[itsrobert]

48. Bump

Someone posted this poll as new. Visibility for the whole truth.

Hillary leads by 10 pts in likely voters.

[grossproffit]

49. ...

[BigDemVoter]

51. We'll see. I already voted.

[joeybee12]

58. Get your Bernie Bench Warmer Sanders excuses here!

I'm really trying to figure out what lies his campaign will tell when he loses California...he's pretty much thrown everything out there thus far...none of it worth any merit, but hey, it keeps those donations coming in.

[sarcasmo]

60. Kick

[Norman Conch Quest]

61. IBL

Whew, that was close!

[Odin2005]

62. "Likely voters" = "This poll is bullshit"

[Bubry]

67. Looks like it will be the most accurate poll

Of all.

[Codeine]

68. Ahem. nt