Polling expert: It’s too close to call (Brexit)

[brooklynite]

Source: Politico

Any gains made by the Remain camp in recent days are minimal and the Brexit referendum result is on a knife-edge, a leading British pollster said Wednesday.

John Curtice, professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, told the BBC that Remain “has grabbed back some of the ground that it seemed to have lost in last week’s polls — but it’s certainly not grabbed back all of the ground.”

A predicted swing back to the anti-Brexit camp was “not in evidence,” he added.

Curtice told the Independent: “It’s around 50-50 … Undoubtedly last week Leave made progress — the first significant progress of the campaign. You actually had the phone polls calling it 50-50 and you had the internet polls having Leave ahead. It’s very, very tight. You can’t call this referendum — it’s too close.”

Read more: http://www.politico.eu/article/polling-expert-its-too-close-to-call-eu-referendum/

[Just reading posts]

2. I'll be very curious to see what happens tomorrow. I wonder how soon it will be called?

[brooklynite]

4. CNN's Richard Quest told me we should know by midnight (Eastern)/5 AM (UTC)

[DrBulldog]

3. One thing is for sure . . .

. . . unlike in America, it is certain that this referendum will not be tainted by election fraud.

[pampango]

8. Not according to "Leave" voters. 46% expect the vote to be rigged, 30% disagree.

It is different among "Stay" voters. Only 11% suspect rigging with 70% expecting a clean vote.

Around two thirds of Ukip voters believe the referendum is likely to be rigged

Voters were asked whether they agreed with the statement “It is likely that the EU referendum will be rigged” with possible responses “Probably true”, “Probably false” and “Don’t know”.

The study found a sharp contrast between the views of people leaning towards Remain and people leaning towards Leave, however.

Just 11 per cent of people who planned to vote Remain said it was “probably true” that the EU referendum would be rigged, while 70 per cent said it probably wouldn’t be.

Leave voters were far more suspicious, with 46 per cent agreeing that rigging was likely, and just 30 per cent saying it was unlikely to be rigged.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-rigged-poll-mi5-ukip-nigel-farage-vote-leave-remain-a7093536.html

Conspiracy theorists on the right are a common phenomenon.

[Kelvin Mace]

5. The results will be bad now matter what

Since it will probably be a close vote, either way. Failure will be viewed as "fraud" by supporters, success will be its own disaster.

Since the measure is fairly evenly split, a huge number of people will be angry regardless.

[SDJay]

6. My Wife and I

are headed to London on Sunday. After a couple of days there we're headed to Ireland before going back across England for our return trip home out of Heathrow. Should be quite an interesting time to be there. Hopefully it's relatively calm.

[Helen Borg]

7. I'll be in London this weekend. Will report back

[muriel_volestrangler]

9. Graph of how the polls have gone

It has been noted that phone polls have given a lead to Remain nearly all the time, while online polls have tended to show a small Leave lead. So I've separated the 2, and given a linear trend for each, for what that's worth. X axis is the day of the year, with polling day being the right hand edge.

Data from Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum and UK Polling Report: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/ . Occasional differences due to 'likely to vote', 'idiocy of transcriber' etc. may occur. Void where prohibited. Esso Extra.

[brooklynite]

10. The issue is which group cares ENOUGH to show up and vote...

"LEAVE" may drive it's supporters more than "STAY".

[muriel_volestrangler]

11. Weather could even play a part

Heavy rain and thunderstorms overnight in the south-east of England, and another wave coming in from about 3pm onwards. That could be enough to put off some people who might have voted in the evening.

[OnDoutside]

12. I'm really surprised how many of my British friends are going to vote for Leave, I would

never have thought they would as they've all worked around Europe, some have holiday homes in Spain and France, yet they are determined to vote to leave. The common reason seems to be that Europe has too much control and they felt they were moved away from the original reason for joining in 1973, the common market, to a federal Europe where they're being told what to do by Brussels. It seems to me that the Remain have not done a good job in explaining the benefits of membership.

[AntiBank]

13. anyone who paints this as a simple left v right issue is just not that aware