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Wed Jun 22, 2016, 07:26 PM

EU referendum: Why is there no exit poll?

Source: Independent

The exit polls at general elections, which are run for the BBC, ITV and Sky by Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University, have built up a reputation for getting the result right over many election cycles.

The polls work by asking people how they voted at sampling points across the country, and comparing that with surveys at the same places in the previous election. The changes can then be projected to build up a national picture. Last year, the exit poll announced when the polls closed at 10pm put the Conservatives on 316 seats and Labour on 239: the Tories ended up winning 15 more and Labour seven fewer.

However, there will be no exit poll published at 10pm when voting in the EU referendum closes because the broadcasters have no way of knowing how accurate it would be.

Read more: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-exit-poll-who-has-won-remain-leave-brexit-live-updates-a7094886.html

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Reply EU referendum: Why is there no exit poll? (Original post)
NWCorona Jun 2016 OP
Stevepol Jun 2016 #1
AntiBank Jun 2016 #3
CountAllVotes Jun 2016 #2
AntiBank Jun 2016 #4
CountAllVotes Jun 2016 #6
AntiBank Jun 2016 #8
NWCorona Jun 2016 #13
AntiBank Jun 2016 #10
forest444 Jun 2016 #5
CountAllVotes Jun 2016 #7
forest444 Jun 2016 #9
CountAllVotes Jun 2016 #16
Denzil_DC Jun 2016 #11
NWCorona Jun 2016 #14
brooklynite Jun 2016 #18
Reter Jun 2016 #20
brooklynite Jun 2016 #21
Reter Jun 2016 #22
Denzil_DC Jun 2016 #12
roamer65 Jun 2016 #15
WinkyDink Jun 2016 #17
brooklynite Jun 2016 #23
WinkyDink Jun 2016 #24
brooklynite Jun 2016 #25
rug Jun 2016 #19

Response to NWCorona (Original post)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 10:25 AM

1. I would be interested to know HOW THE VOTE IS COUNTED.

If it's counted by electronic voting machines, I suspect that the exit polls won't match the reported results. The two might match closely but if there's no way to verify the result with a hand-count, I'd bet the opposite. If the vote theft machines are not used, then almost certainly the exit polls and the results will match up just as they always have up to now and as they do in every country where the paper ballots are hand-counted.

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Response to NWCorona (Original post)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 10:37 AM

2. Book makers

At the moment, the bookies have it at ~65% leave; ~35% stay.

We'll see I guess.

That said, this is not going over so hot.

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Response to CountAllVotes (Reply #2)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 10:41 AM

4. of course Blair is remain, the EU is a fundamental neoliberal talisman

 

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Response to AntiBank (Reply #4)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 10:43 AM

6. Blair is a war criminal

Lock him up before he does more damage to the world.



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Response to CountAllVotes (Reply #6)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 10:45 AM

8. no argument there, I was in many a demo in London against the poodle

 

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Response to CountAllVotes (Reply #6)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 11:13 AM

13. I had a lot of respect for the man and then those papers dropped...

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Response to CountAllVotes (Reply #2)


Response to NWCorona (Original post)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 10:43 AM

5. Because they're trying to fix it like they did the Scottish referendum.

Ballots counted in a huge hangar (making scrutiny by observers almost impossible), absurdly simple - and thus easily forged - ballots, 'yes' ballots being created by poll workers, 'yes' ballots being tucked into 'no' piles by prestidigitators, 'no' tables with piles of 'yes' ballots, exit polls being published (favoring 'no') when none where held, ballots summarily destroyed the day after tabulation, and so on.

If even half that much had happened in some country the State Dept. or Wall Street isn't particularly fond of, 'fraud' would have screamed form every headline.

This is probably going to be no different - especially with so much riding on the result.

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Response to forest444 (Reply #5)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 10:45 AM

7. They do not allow cameras at the polls in Ireland

Seems to be a split, almost 50/50 in Ireland I'd say.

Difficult to know how this will turn out.



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Response to CountAllVotes (Reply #7)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 10:50 AM

9. Interesting. Thank you for the update!

Personally, I'm inclined to believe the U.K. should stay in the EU - but have seen good arguments on either side. It may be hard to extol the importance of European unity to the average British citizen when Britain has a 8 billion ($11 billion) trade deficit with the EU every month.

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Response to forest444 (Reply #9)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 11:55 AM

16. Seems it depends on which EU country you are in

Some need it badly, others do not want it anymore and want OUT NOW (like The Netherlands).

When the whole EU thing started I remember saying I did not see how it could possibly work as many of the countries in the EU don't especially love each other to death if you know what I mean.

Whatever happens happens I suppose. I have no vote in this one today but if I did, I vote to get out of it before they form the "European Army" ... next on Merkel's agenda it seems. This is very distasteful to countries that are neutral like Ireland is for example.





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Response to forest444 (Reply #5)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 11:05 AM

11. You'll have hard evidence to back up all these allegations, no doubt?

I voted for Yes, but have heard absolutely no credible evidence of vote tampering in the two years since the vote.

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Response to forest444 (Reply #5)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 11:14 AM

14. Yup!

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Response to forest444 (Reply #5)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 12:20 PM

18. Conspiracy theories belong in CREATIVE SPECULATION

Unless you have, you know, evidence

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Response to brooklynite (Reply #18)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 08:45 PM

20. The Quebec referendum in 1995 looked awfully suspicious as well

 

Why do all of these referendums to become independent go into the polls leading, then lose when it comes to a vote? Let's hope sanity prevails this time.

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Response to Reter (Reply #20)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 08:51 PM

21. Would you care to share your bona fides to analyze a Quebec election?

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Response to brooklynite (Reply #21)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 08:59 PM

22. Bringing it up is is only aggravating me, and will later bring me to tears thinking about it

 

I'm still upset that one lost. But here's the Wiki article. Approximately 86,000 ballots were rejected by Deputy Returning Officers. It was leading going into the vote.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quebec_referendum,_1995

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Response to NWCorona (Original post)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 11:09 AM

12. Because the way exit polls are formulated depends on comparable voting precedents.

The last UK EU referendum was in 1974, so there just isn't the relevant data to make it worthwhile.

The real results will come in soon enough anyway. There's no reason to believe any polling firm would be more reliable than the actual tally.

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Response to NWCorona (Original post)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 11:18 AM

15. I think Brexit will win...narrowly.

I don't see the EU honoring the vote, though. I think it will say "so what". These are undemocratic Eurocrats.

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Response to NWCorona (Original post)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 12:14 PM

17. Same reason they were dropped from the US Presidential elections. The Fixers might get foiled.

 

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Response to WinkyDink (Reply #17)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 09:23 PM

23. Lazy conspiracy theory

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Response to brooklynite (Reply #23)

Fri Jun 24, 2016, 05:05 PM

24. Not as lazy as your not Googling: Florida 2000 and the networks:

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/aponline/20001108/aponline183922_000.htm

http://www.metafilter.com/21399/Voter-News-Service-has-abandoned-its-state-and-national-exit-polls

Bush's cousin calls FL for Dubya.

The SCOTUS stops the FL legally-mandated re-count.

The SCOTUS subsequently declares Bush the victor, because to do otherwise would have "harmed" him.

Bot no conspiracy here, folks. (This message brought to you by the PDB of August 2000.)


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Response to WinkyDink (Reply #24)

Fri Jun 24, 2016, 05:12 PM

25. And if only Gore had won Tennessee...

...or one of the nine States he lost that Clinton had won, Florida would have been meaningless. Bottom line, Gote was a lousy candidate.

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Response to NWCorona (Original post)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 08:28 PM

19. The entire referendum is an exit poll.

 

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