New CNN Poll: Trump Bounces Into the Lead

[Hissyspit]

Source: CNN

Trump bounces into the lead

By Jennifer Agiesta CNN Polling Director
Published On: Jul 25 2016 05:01:24 AM CDT
(CNN) -

The bounce is back.

Donald Trump comes out of his convention ahead of Hillary Clinton in the race for the White House, topping her 44% to 39% in a four-way matchup including Gary Johnson (9%) and Jill Stein (3%) and by three points in a two-way head-to-head, 48% to 45%. That latter finding represents a 6-point convention bounce for Trump, which are traditionally measured in two-way matchups.

There hasn't been a significant post-convention bounce in CNN's polling since 2000. That year Al Gore and George W. Bush both boosted their numbers by an identical 8 points post-convention before ultimately battling all the way to the Supreme Court.

The new findings mark Trump's best showing in a CNN/ORC Poll against Clinton since September 2015. Trump's new edge rests largely on increased support among independents, 43% of whom said that Trump's convention in Cleveland left them more likely to back him, while 41% were dissuaded. Pre-convention, independents split 34% Clinton to 31% Trump, with sizable numbers behind Johnson (22%) and Stein (10%). Now, 46% say they back Trump, 28% Clinton, 15% Johnson and 4% Stein.

Read more: http://www.kcci.com/politics/trump-bounces-into-the-lead/40867076

[Cooley Hurd]

2. Convention bounce - it's to be expected...

[Android3.14]

6. After that nightmare convention?

I sure hope Hillary has some serious rallying cry to GOTV. Right now it appears many Americans are so angry at the corporate government, they don't care who they elect as long as they can tell the establishment to just fuck off.

[Cosmocat]

20. RIGHT?

Holy fucking hell, what would it be if he actually didn't have a trainwreck for a convention?

THIS is how fucking stupid this country is.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

27. The corporate media has been doing nothing but talking about Wiki this and Wiki that instead

of the horrible convention. So sure there's a "bounce"

[JudyM]

48. There seems to be more to it than that, unfortunately.

Including rating his competence in foreign affairs, even. People got more comfortable with him and Cruz's popularity nosedived. They are uniting behind him and see him as presidential. Hopefully it will rebound the other way but this looks ominous. More from the link:

Trump's favorability rating is also on the rise (46% of registered voters say they have a positive view, up from 39% pre-convention), while his advantage over Clinton on handling top issues climbs. He now holds double-digit margins over Clinton as more trusted on the economy and terrorism. Trump also cut into Clinton's edge on managing foreign policy (50% said they trusted her more, down from 57% pre-convention).

The convention also helped Trump make strides in his personal image. A majority (52%) now say Trump is running for president for the good of the country rather than personal gain, just 44% say the same about Clinton. He's increased the share who call him honest and trustworthy (from 38% to 43%), and who would be proud to have him as president (from 32% to 39%). And nearly half now say he's in touch with the problems ordinary Americans face in their daily lives (46% say so, 37% did before the convention).

Despite Democratic criticism of the Republican convention's message as divisive, the percentage who say Trump will unite the country rather than divide it has increased to 42%, compared with 34% pre-convention.

Clinton's ratings on these same measures took a hit, though in most cases her drop-off was not quite as large as Trump's gain. Perhaps most troubling for the Clinton supporters gathering in Philadelphia this week: 68% now say Clinton is not honest and trustworthy, her worst rating on that measure in CNN/ORC polling.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

50. Yeah, sure. But I will argue that a lot of Trump support is based in racism/sexism. I know people

don't agree with me, but I believe that's the #1 driver of these results. (This, and the fact that CNN/ORC tends to oversample Republicans.)

[rtracey]

64. nope

This is a 3 point lead, mostly in the +- of the poll itself. The bounce was not much of a bounce.

[agingdem]

60. Relax

Hillary has been at this for a very long time..she knows what she's doing.. Hillary and her very able team know how to counter this crap.. And you can bet she has her own internal polls that are telling her something quite different..let's enjoy the convention!

[PeteSelman]

3. I expected him to be up by five.

Convention bounce is convention bounce but the fact the so many people are taking this guy seriously and our side keeps making unforced errors is disconcerting.

We need a perfect convention if we want to clean this shit up.

[RAFisher]

51. If this is true Trump got a +10% convention boune. That is pretty large

The CNN/ORC poll had Clinton up 7% less than two weeks ago.

[PeteSelman]

53. People love that dictatorial speech.

They just do. I'm floored by how many people I know that buy into this horseshit and absolutely HATE Hillary. They fucking hate her but none of them can explain why.

I'm starting to get a really bad feeling about all this.

We need a good convention.

[heresAthingdotcom]

54. and in 3 weeks Hillary will be up by 3...

the mix of a poll is so important... the demographic mix.... polls are random selections.. but they are not really... and if random and no demographic mix then not accurate....

[MFM008]

4. 538 says

CNN/Orc polls have a 6 point bias toward republicans. Since he is "6" points up he could actually be tied. It's disheartening to think anyone takes this idiot seriously let alone actually put him in charge of something.

All not lost.

[Cobalt Violet]

5. tied isn't good enough

[Android3.14]

8. I agree, but the Know Nothing Pollyannas are keeping us from addressing the threat

So many on our side fail to realize that Trump is tapping into something dark and vast that has been building in the American culture since the Kennedy assassination. People are pinning their hopes on this week's convention, but I'm afraid it is going to be a fart in an outhouse.

Come on Hillary. Lead us. We need you.

[FBaggins]

23. No they don't

They have it at R +0.1%

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

[RKP5637]

52. And especially since many American voters often don't have their brains engaged when they

vote looking at the history of some of the presidents of the US. In particularly, Bush twice.

[heresAthingdotcom]

55. 3 months the debates and the Democratic organization and Trump with none...

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

[Democat]

7. Democrats need to stop letting Republicans trick them into fighting each other

And focus on fighting Republicans.

DU is a mess right now with right wing trolls posting anti-Clinton and anti-Democrat propaganda to try to help Trump.

[Democat]

12. The DU rules are that everyone supports Clinton after the primary

If you don't support Clinton at this point, you're a troll helping Trump.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

10. Guess

what CNN (and other outlets) is going to be talking about all day today- instead of the DNC? And then several among us are going to be panicking and attacking each other over. Brilliant. Right on cue.


BTW is Johnson really doing that well?

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

49. How is Johnson NOT hurting Trump? Surely those people would not be HRC supporters ordinarily.

[ericson00]

11. the terrorism issue is the most glaring of the issues

and if you look at the by issues http://www.pollingreport.com/wh16.htm you can see his lead on terrorism and ISIS has increased.

[ck4829]

13. His base - Those who have a "second amendment solution" for their own shadows

[jtuck004]

16. Terrorism has nothing on leaving a couple hundred million to dangle after feeding them

to the bank$ter/donors for 8 years.

Gas goes up, you can watch the national mood change to "throw the incumbents" out. It's happened before - people think about their wallets before they think about anything else. And if has been empty for a long time under you, they may well look somewhere else for relief. Good or bad.

You start with damaged people, people this party has put second to their donors in the banks for years, and think you are gonna drag them out to fight for you?

You gotta build up your army before the fight, else you lose that advantage. You can build it up during the war, but you lose a lot, as we proved in WWII.

Here's the army...

...
The hurting economy
Joe is one of 8 million unemployed Americans who remain without work despite a hiring surge in recent years.
The hurting economy still exists. Perhaps the most telling sign that the U.S. isn't back to normal is the 44.7 million Americans on food stamps. Joe is one of them, something else he never envisioned in his life.
Before the financial crisis there were only 26.3 million people on food stamps.

...

5 of the fastest growing jobs now pay less than $25,000 a year, and 10 million renters have replaced 10 million home owning families.

In relative terms, virtually no workers are making much progress. You go into an election like that, you may well kiss it goodbye.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/04/26/news/economy/middle-class-to-homeless/index.html?sr=cnnmoneybin043016middle-class-to-homeless0900vodtop

Good luck.

[Cosmocat]

17. YEP!

that is the primary driver they are tapping into.

We have a couple big terrorist attacks abroad every week now.

We REALLY need these attacks to slow down a good bit.

[ericson00]

19. not just that, but I've argued

that the Syria refugee issue is a place Hillary triangulating could blunt Trump's momentum. I think the data backs up my case pretty strongly.

[independentpiney]

70. Absolutely agree nt

[ericson00]

71. if you could, I could use a KNR on my thread

thanks!

[mwb970]

15. This won't last long.

About a week, I would say. Same as last time he moved ahead in national polling, back in May.

[helpisontheway]

18. Thanks

Now I know to stay away from the tv most of the day. They will be talking about that poll and DWS all day long......I can only imagine what the Morning Joe panel is doing. They must be doing backflips.......

[geek tragedy]

21. Blech his convention was a success.

And white Americans are disturbingly willing to sign up for fascism, racism and plutocracy.

[Democat]

24. Luckily, racists are not the majority in America anymore

This is not a white vs non-white issue. Most Americans of every ethnic background, especially the younger generations, are not racist. We need to motivate the majority of Americans who do not believe in racism and get them out to vote.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

26. We know this to NOT be true whether you can admit it or not.

[Democat]

28. You think that the majority of Americans are racist?

If so, that would have to include non-whites as well?

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

30. Yes, I do. I've seen it here on Democratic Underground. I, and many other people of color.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/118755687

[Democat]

36. I definitely agree that racism exists, and is too widespread

But I refuse to believe that a majority of Americans are racist. A majority of older Americans who are more likely to vote maybe, but Obama proved that we can beat that group by engaging more younger open minded voters.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

37. The majority of white voters did not vote for Obama in 2008 and 2012. Also, the notion that the

younger generations are not racist is absolutely false. One only need to see the rampant racism on college campuses to disprove your point.

Yes, I believe that vast majority of Americans are racists, whether they realize it or not---and they don't have to be KKK members or yelling the N-word. Implicit, explicit, unconscious and conscious racism exists. This is something that we need to be honest about. Just because you don't believe it doesn't make it not so.

Also, ask non-white people. Listen to their stories. How can you make these claims if you are not a person of color and therefore are not subjected to racism? You can't. Listen to what people of color have to say---and not just blacks. Hispanics, Asians, all of us. LISTEN!!

[bekkilyn]

44. Agreed

I'd probably go so far as to say that most people in this country aren't *intentionally* racist, but a lot of things we do and experience are racist that we don't realize because of racist social norms and unconscious behavior.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

45. And I'll had that as a black woman, I've seen how internalized racism has impacted black people

themselves--just like internalized sexism leads women to be harder on women. People participate in their own oppression and come to believe all the negative things propagated about themselves. So it follows that if people of color have themselves internalized racism and are suffering from self hatred as a result, why wouldn't the larger white society also not be impacted by racism? All people--in varying degrees--have internalized racism or racial prejudice and that influences how we think about race on a large scale. If women internalize their own sense of inferiority, then the larger society that conditions women to feel that way would itself be affected.

Denying the reality gets us nowhere. We must come to terms with it, then work to eradicate it.

[geek tragedy]

35. Racists are still a majority in this country. Trump knows this.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2012/10/27/poll-black-prejudice-america/1662067/

In all, 51% of Americans now express explicit anti-black attitudes, compared with 48% in a similar 2008 survey. When measured by an implicit racial attitudes test, the number of Americans with anti-black sentiments jumped to 56%, up from 49% during the last presidential election. In both tests, the share of Americans expressing pro-black attitudes fell.

"As much as we'd hope the impact of race would decline over time ... it appears the impact of anti-black sentiment on voting is about the same as it was four years ago," said Jon Krosnick, a Stanford University professor who worked with AP to develop the survey.

Most Americans expressed anti-Hispanic sentiments, too. In an AP survey done in 2011, 52% of non-Hispanic whites expressed anti-Hispanic attitudes. That figure rose to 57% in the implicit test. The survey on Hispanics had no past data for comparison.

What we underestimated is just how many racist dumbfucks will vote based on their racism above all other considerations.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

38. Thank you because there are too many deniers here.

[geek tragedy]

39. people think because racism has become socially unacceptable to express in public

that most people aren't tainted by it in private.

Very understandable to believe that, but the data--and the 2016 election--show otherwise.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

40. The Bradley Effect is scaring the shit out of me and other people of color I know.

People expressing their racist/sexist beliefs in private...we don't know how many of them will impact this election.

Those denying this only make it worse.

We have to come to terms with the racism here in this country. Funny how people living outside the U.S. call it out. They see it.

[geek tragedy]

41. Clinton is smart enough to know that anyone thinking about supporting Trump is either a racist

or doesn't have serious objections to racism.

So, they have to disqualify him on other grounds, of which there are many.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

43. This fear applies to women as well. I wonder what the impact will be for those who SAY they have

no problem voting for a woman, but once they're in the voting booth, go another way.

[truthisfreedom]

22. *cue loud farting sound*

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

25. CNN seems very happy to report this "news". They're not even trying to hide their bias.

"The bounce is back". There never was a bounce to begin with!

[Doodley]

29. The Clinton team need to up their game because this is getting serious.

[Darb]

32. Yeah right.

It's gonna be 55-45, and an electoral college blowout.

[Hissyspit]

33. I actually think you are correct.

But November is a long way away.

[Darb]

34. It's gonna be an ugly 3 months.

Think that I will check out.

[CrowCityDem]

42. Polls tend to oversample white voters. The demographic polls make the numbers we see impossible.

Hillary is getting 90+% of African Americans, 80% of Latinos, and is even winning college educated whites (which no Dem has ever done). Those demographics should put her comfortably ahead, unless the polls are assuming a gigantic white turnout that is highly unlikely.

[hollowdweller]

46. People not making any money. Middle East still messed up. Civil instability between the law and folk

I still think this is an outsider year.

People see stuff messed up and since Clinton was part of the gov't for so long they see her as part of the problem.

Also Clinton is not so simplistic as Trump and she is also not as emotional about trade.

Trump is so messed up in any other year he'd be gone by now.

They are both inconsistent on their positions but Trump is so emotional he's more convincing to some.

Also all throughout the Rust Belt people want some economic help but they do not want their guns restricted. I think this could very well tip the race to Trump.

The key will be the debates. If I was the Clinton camp I would try to do everything they could do to try to replicate the Bernie thing, where they don't have that many and have them at times people don't watch.

If Trump gets an hour on national TV beating up Clinton over NAFTA, the mess in the middle east, crime and the screwed US worker more than once or twice I'm worried.

[Tatiana]

47. And this is why the fascist Trump campaign must be taken seriously.

He could seriously WIN this thing.

This country is seriously ignorant enough to elect that fool.

[heresAthingdotcom]

56. I think Demographics will still play a role

and isn't being considered in the polls...

Trump needs 70% to 80% of white people to win and I don't think he will get them.... President Obama got 39% long way to go....

[humbled_opinion]

57. All the media wants to talk

about is this email shit again....

[Attorney in Texas]

58. We need a unified convention.

[Democat]

62. Would be nice to have a unified DU

But the trolls are working over time.

[Attorney in Texas]

63. It's not all trolls. The leaked emails raise sincere misgivings for some Democrats with pure motives

[treestar]

59. Isn't that within MOE?

[RAFisher]

61. Gravis, CNN, LA Times, and CBS all show Trump leading. That shit show last week got him a bump...

RCP now gives him the lead. FiveThirtyEight still barely favors Clinton but has the projected EV 270-268 favoring Trump.

Good news is that FiveThirtyEight's new Polls-plus model still favors Clinton. That model factors in the convention bump. Still not that great news nor has that poll been used in other elections.

[regnaD kciN]

67. Umm…that's not what 538 is showing…

That site has three methods of calculation, "now-cast," "polls-only," and "polls-plus." In the first of the three (what would happen if the election were held today, which it obviously isn't), Trump has a 57% chance of victory, and would take both the popular and electoral votes. In "polls-only," Clinton has a 53.7% chance of winning, and would take the popular and electoral vote (the latter by 276-261). In "polls-plus," Clinton's odds increase to 58%, with a corresponding boost in both vote totals.

None of 538's formulas give Clinton a "slight edge," while showing Trump winning the EV.

[TeddyR]

65. This isn't surprising to me

Trump has kept it relatively close and a bounce is to be expected. My concern is whether Hillary can get a bounce -- she's someone who has been in the political spotlight for 25 years and I suspect that there are far fewer folks who are undecided when it comes to Hillary. If Trump can convince independents he won't be a complete disaster (and he apparently has done so despite a dumpster fire of a convention) then I think Hillary could be in trouble.

[bathroommonkey76]

66. Hillary's 538 lead has also evaporated.

She was up 80% to 20% a few weeks ago on Nate Silver's site.

Today:

Hillary 53.7%
Trump 46.2%

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

When should we start worrying?

[TomCADem]

69. Yes. Trump Has a Very Good Chance of Winning the Presidency

His election will validate huge tax cuts and backlash politics against women and minorities.

[MariaThinks]

68. are independents brain dead? What was it at the convention that would attract anyone that

is not already a diehard raving trump loon.

[hollowdweller]

73. Stuff like this

We know it's BS but some people fall for it:

I have a different vision for our workers. It begins with a new, fair trade policy that protects our jobs and stands up to countries that cheat. It’s been a signature message of my campaign from day one, and it will be a signature feature of my presidency from the moment I take the oath of office.

I have made billions of dollars in business making deals – now I’m going to make our country rich again. I am going to turn our bad trade agreements into great ones. America has lost nearly-one third of its manufacturing jobs since 1997, following the enactment of disastrous trade deals supported by Bill and Hillary Clinton.

Remember, it was Bill Clinton who signed NAFTA, one of the worst economic deals ever made by our country.

Never again.

I am going to bring our jobs back to Ohio and to America – and I am not going to let companies move to other countries, firing their employees along the way, without consequences.

My opponent, on the other hand, has supported virtually every trade agreement that has been destroying our middle class. She supported NAFTA, and she supported China’s entrance into the World Trade Organization – another one of her husband’s colossal mistakes.

She supported the job killing trade deal with South Korea. She has supported the Trans-Pacific Partnership. The TPP will not only destroy our manufacturing, but it will make America subject to the rulings of foreign governments. I pledge to never sign any trade agreement that hurts our workers, or that diminishes our freedom and independence. Instead, I will make individual deals with individual countries.

No longer will we enter into these massive deals, with many countries, that are thousands of pages long – and which no one from our country even reads or understands. We are going to enforce all trade violations, including through the use of taxes and tariffs, against any country that cheats.

This includes stopping China’s outrageous theft of intellectual property, along with their illegal product dumping, and their devastating currency manipulation. Our horrible trade agreements with China and many others, will be totally renegotiated. That includes renegotiating NAFTA to get a much better deal for America – and we’ll walk away if we don’t get the deal that we want. We are going to start building and making things again.

Next comes the reform of our tax laws, regulations and energy rules. While Hillary Clinton plans a massive tax increase, I have proposed the largest tax reduction of any candidate who has declared for the presidential race this year – Democrat or Republican. Middle-income Americans will experience profound relief, and taxes will be simplified for everyone.

America is one of the highest-taxed nations in the world. Reducing taxes will cause new companies and new jobs to come roaring back into our country. Then we are going to deal with the issue of regulation, one of the greatest job-killers of them all. Excessive regulation is costing our country as much as $2 trillion a year, and we will end it. We are going to lift the restrictions on the production of American energy. This will produce more than $20 trillion in job creating economic activity over the next four decades.

My opponent, on the other hand, wants to put the great miners and steel workers of our country out of work – that will never happen when I am President. With these new economic policies, trillions of dollars will start flowing into our country.

This new wealth will improve the quality of life for all Americans – We will build the roads, highways, bridges, tunnels, airports, and the railways of tomorrow. This, in turn, will create millions more jobs. We will rescue kids from failing schools by helping their parents send them to a safe school of their choice.

My opponent would rather protect education bureaucrats than serve American children. We will repeal and replace disastrous Obamacare. You will be able to choose your own doctor again. And we will fix TSA at the airports! We will completely rebuild our depleted military, and the countries that we protect, at a massive loss, will be asked to pay their fair share.

We will take care of our great Veterans like they have never been taken care of before. My opponent dismissed the VA scandal as being not widespread – one more sign of how out of touch she really is. We are going to ask every Department Head in government to provide a list of wasteful spending projects that we can eliminate in my first 100 days. The politicians have talked about it, I’m going to do it. We are also going to appoint justices to the United States Supreme Court who will uphold our laws and our Constitution.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/full-transcript-donald-trump-nomination-acceptance-speech-at-rnc-225974#ixzz4FSKvUuNA
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook

[locks]

72. Incredibly sad for our nation

that there would be an increase in the number of people backing Trump after that horrible convention and his more horrible speeches since. Who are these people and who raised them?