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bathroommonkey76

(3,827 posts)
Mon Jul 25, 2016, 10:56 AM Jul 2016

FiveThirtyEight election forecast shows Trump ahead

Source: Politico

Political analyst Nate Silver’s latest forecast has Republican nominee Donald Trump with a 15 percentage point-greater chance of beating presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton if the election were held today, according to FiveThirtyEight.

Silver's "now-cast," updated with fresh surveys on Monday, shows Trump's current likelihood of winning at 57.5 percent, compared with Clinton’s 42.5 percent. In the 11 battleground states, Colorado, Virginia and Michigan would go to Clinton, while Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Iowa would go to Trump.

The breakdown shifts a bit between the Electoral College and the popular vote. Silver's model currently predicts the popular vote going 45.4 percent to Trump vs. 45.1 percent to Clinton, but the Electoral College giving Trump a wider margin of victory, 285 votes and Clinton 252.6.




Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/fivethirtyeight-trump-winning-226114

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FiveThirtyEight election forecast shows Trump ahead (Original Post) bathroommonkey76 Jul 2016 OP
Silver's a jackass, and not because of this. Dawgs Jul 2016 #1
It's data Loki Liesmith Jul 2016 #5
Didn't Silver's site predict the last two bathroommonkey76 Jul 2016 #6
Because Capt. Obvious Jul 2016 #18
Simple math predicted the last two elections. Dawgs Jul 2016 #73
I think the reason he's calling Silver a jackass is because the dude's a jackass StrictlyRockers Jul 2016 #76
Exactly. forest444 Jul 2016 #82
We believe him when he says Hillary is ahead adigal Jul 2016 #95
Not bad Loki Liesmith Jul 2016 #2
I hope you're right. bathroommonkey76 Jul 2016 #11
Moore also said Romney was going to win. I suspect Moore's comment is to encourage people to GOTV still_one Jul 2016 #16
Moore is definitely using psychology to get out the vote. bathroommonkey76 Jul 2016 #23
The truth is, anyone who votes for Trump is either a racist, or willfully ignorant. still_one Jul 2016 #30
I don't know why you'd give anyone the benefit of the doubt and call them ignorant... harrose Jul 2016 #96
I cannot argue with that still_one Jul 2016 #97
WTF humbled_opinion Jul 2016 #3
He said it was a convention bounce that's likely to fade. bathroommonkey76 Jul 2016 #13
"If the election were held today…" regnaD kciN Jul 2016 #4
Message auto-removed Name removed Jul 2016 #9
You are correct. bathroommonkey76 Jul 2016 #17
And if the election was held last week, Hillary would win stopbush Jul 2016 #61
Yikes I don't understand how Chimichurri Jul 2016 #7
Nate's Pretty Good, but I think we should wait till after Dem Convention REALforever Jul 2016 #8
+1 jonno99 Jul 2016 #34
Fuck Nate Silver onecaliberal Jul 2016 #10
HE'S WORSE THAN RALPH NADER Capt. Obvious Jul 2016 #19
Talk about trying to influence the outcome. onecaliberal Jul 2016 #42
AND CATCH ON FIRE Capt. Obvious Jul 2016 #49
Why? Ace Rothstein Jul 2016 #32
No way Pennsylvania/Wisconsin go Trump tman Jul 2016 #12
Wisconsin to Trump? Um, no. Still In Wisconsin Jul 2016 #14
Exactly tman Jul 2016 #22
Then how did that Wanker win re-election? ChairmanAgnostic Jul 2016 #64
Messaging Jimbo S Jul 2016 #77
On top of some fine political figures, there was Joe McCarthy, too. ChairmanAgnostic Jul 2016 #78
Off year elections and an incompetent state party. Still In Wisconsin Jul 2016 #84
Hey, I feel for you. We have Rauner, a POS who is smarter and more evil ChairmanAgnostic Jul 2016 #85
When Rauner was elected I thought to myself, "Oh no not them too!" Still In Wisconsin Jul 2016 #87
Your secret is safe with me. I promise to tell no one. ChairmanAgnostic Jul 2016 #88
I think you're right... the Kochs seem to have kicked Wanker (and Ron "Senator Dumbass" Johnson Still In Wisconsin Jul 2016 #90
Trump doesn't need either of those to win. RAFisher Jul 2016 #65
Will depend on turnout for both. But Trump needs neither. harun Jul 2016 #94
Think a Majority of Americans Are Bigots and Trump... TomCADem Jul 2016 #15
I am not convinced they are a majority, but there are a hell of a lot more than we are led to believ still_one Jul 2016 #20
People Hear What They Want To Hear... TomCADem Jul 2016 #31
Or, perhaps, they are just louder. ChairmanAgnostic Jul 2016 #92
good point still_one Jul 2016 #93
Just went to 538. Shows Clinton 53.7, Trump 46.2 n/t Tess49 Jul 2016 #21
From Silver's Twitter feed (posted 2 hours ago) bathroommonkey76 Jul 2016 #26
You have to click on "now cast" Major Nikon Jul 2016 #29
Please take this seriously -- Trump is a very real threat in November uawchild Jul 2016 #24
Dumpster fire of a convention is putting it nicely. His convention was an unmitigated disaster. LonePirate Jul 2016 #43
It's freaking scary bathroommonkey76 Jul 2016 #44
What will happen if Trump actually has a good week in the press? uawchild Jul 2016 #45
Every obstacle, double your effort! bucolic_frolic Jul 2016 #25
Ummm....no it doesn't. Hillary is still ahead UMTerp01 Jul 2016 #27
Silver posted this on Twitter 2 hours ago. bathroommonkey76 Jul 2016 #33
By probability only. Wait till after the convention - right now this means little Yo_Mama Jul 2016 #28
With the fucked up Convention they had... Helen Borg Jul 2016 #37
Agreed. bathroommonkey76 Jul 2016 #41
Yep - and it's still a long way from November...nt jonno99 Jul 2016 #38
This is very serious. We have to face it, Trump could win. And the world will lose. Doodley Jul 2016 #35
Ooops. Helen Borg Jul 2016 #36
HahaHahaHahaHahaHahaHaha NaturalHigh Jul 2016 #39
538 made a point of saying the polling is very erratic this early. bullimiami Jul 2016 #40
from 538's site regarding now-casts: unblock Jul 2016 #46
Thanks for posting. n/t bathroommonkey76 Jul 2016 #48
Thought the polls don't mean a thing until Labor Day tralala Jul 2016 #47
Sounds like non-scense to me Equinox Moon Jul 2016 #50
That's scary. The country has officially gone nuts. Vinca Jul 2016 #51
Use this as motivation to unite! Dump DWS, focus on Sanders and Warren supporting Hillary, and put Attorney in Texas Jul 2016 #52
More reliable per Nate himself. Cattledog Jul 2016 #53
I cannot get emotional about polls or odds until at least September. merrily Jul 2016 #54
Maybe it's time for DU to start banning right wing trolls? Democat Jul 2016 #55
Here are todays numbers. I guess he's hedging his bets by picking both? George II Jul 2016 #56
Not according to the 538 polls+ or polls only. Trump got a bump. Now for the Democratic Convention judesedit Jul 2016 #57
This is a serious concern jimlup Jul 2016 #58
Ugh vadermike Jul 2016 #59
You sound suspiciously like you want Trump to win Democat Jul 2016 #66
Funny how oswaldactedalone Jul 2016 #60
Anti-intellectualism exists on the right and left sadly. RAFisher Jul 2016 #67
Bullshit shireen Jul 2016 #62
I like this site Mister K Jul 2016 #63
That's a frickin' landslide. haha bathroommonkey76 Jul 2016 #71
thanks! Grey Lemercier Jul 2016 #83
No it doesn't and it never has. I check it every day. The Second Stone Jul 2016 #68
what the OP is referencing is fivethirtyeights prediction if the election were held TODAY... yawnmaster Jul 2016 #69
We all better get busy and nip this NOW. sinkingfeeling Jul 2016 #70
Stop attacking the messenger and take this seriously. Oneironaut Jul 2016 #72
convention bounce is all RussBLib Jul 2016 #74
The Dems need to campaign more effectively to get past the barrier of the corporate MSM. nt tblue37 Jul 2016 #75
I wish I didn't see this. Scorpionflyx Jul 2016 #79
Trump will win if we don't unite. DesertRat Jul 2016 #86
You're not kidding. Scorpionflyx Jul 2016 #89
Time to get my EU passport in order before BREXIT limits me to only living in England ... VMA131Marine Jul 2016 #80
Post Convention skew. All the media talked about was "Trump".... haele Jul 2016 #81
Not now we can do it Jul 2016 #91
Amazing what a well run convention will do for you... heresAthingdotcom Jul 2016 #98
 

Dawgs

(14,755 posts)
1. Silver's a jackass, and not because of this.
Mon Jul 25, 2016, 10:58 AM
Jul 2016

Can you please stop posting anything that comes from him or his site?

Loki Liesmith

(4,602 posts)
5. It's data
Mon Jul 25, 2016, 10:59 AM
Jul 2016

Just don't approach it emotionally.

Let's see where the betting markets stand after a few days.

 

Dawgs

(14,755 posts)
73. Simple math predicted the last two elections.
Mon Jul 25, 2016, 01:44 PM
Jul 2016

He's a snack oil salesman and you obviously bought what he was selling.

StrictlyRockers

(3,855 posts)
76. I think the reason he's calling Silver a jackass is because the dude's a jackass
Mon Jul 25, 2016, 02:04 PM
Jul 2016

Really.

And how does he manage to get paid when he is wrong sooooo much?

forest444

(5,902 posts)
82. Exactly.
Mon Jul 25, 2016, 02:42 PM
Jul 2016

He's not running for prom king; he's a statistician - and a pretty good one. Any Democrat who chooses to look away at polls because they look bad, does so at his or her peril.

For what it's worth my Tarot cards indicate Hillary will indeed win, and she'll do so thanks in no small part to both Bernie Sanders and Gary Johnson.

I certainly hope so.

 

adigal

(7,581 posts)
95. We believe him when he says Hillary is ahead
Tue Jul 26, 2016, 07:48 PM
Jul 2016

And call him names when he says Trump is ahead. Because people didn't listen about just how unpopular Hillary is. And this latest honorary position for DWS has got a lot of people I know even madder.

still_one

(92,060 posts)
16. Moore also said Romney was going to win. I suspect Moore's comment is to encourage people to GOTV
Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:09 AM
Jul 2016

using reverse psychology

 

bathroommonkey76

(3,827 posts)
23. Moore is definitely using psychology to get out the vote.
Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:13 AM
Jul 2016

But it's still frightening to hear.

I know people in NC who have never voted & will be voting for Trump-- I just hope the Dems can iron out all of the issues we have before the election.

harrose

(380 posts)
96. I don't know why you'd give anyone the benefit of the doubt and call them ignorant...
Tue Jul 26, 2016, 08:43 PM
Jul 2016

... anyone who votes for Trump is a Rethug racist, sexist homophobe who wants to return blacks to slavery, take away the vote from everyone except rich white men and roll back times to when LGBT people were stoned in the streets.

regnaD kciN

(26,044 posts)
4. "If the election were held today…"
Mon Jul 25, 2016, 10:59 AM
Jul 2016

In both of their other formulas (polls-only and polls-plus), Clinton maintains a lead.

Probably a good thing that elections aren't held after one party's convention but before the other's, isn't it?

Response to regnaD kciN (Reply #4)

 

bathroommonkey76

(3,827 posts)
17. You are correct.
Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:09 AM
Jul 2016

The debates are going to be frightening-- Those bounces usually stick and there's no telling what Trump will do or say against HRC.

stopbush

(24,392 posts)
61. And if the election was held last week, Hillary would win
Mon Jul 25, 2016, 12:30 PM
Jul 2016

and if the election were held next week, Hillary would win.

Polls are not predictive. They are a snapshot in time. So unless the government decides to move the election up to TODAY, I don't see what all the worrying is about.

REALforever

(69 posts)
8. Nate's Pretty Good, but I think we should wait till after Dem Convention
Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:01 AM
Jul 2016

I'm not sure what the fresh new polls are, but there are some that are quite consistently outliers. Is he using those in his most recent model?

 

Still In Wisconsin

(4,450 posts)
14. Wisconsin to Trump? Um, no.
Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:08 AM
Jul 2016

The last R to carry WI in a presidential election was Raygun in '84. The cons here hate Trump. A good number of them will vote for Gary Johnson or stay home. The only R's here who like Trump are the rural ones, and that's actually a pretty small slice of the pie.

ChairmanAgnostic

(28,017 posts)
64. Then how did that Wanker win re-election?
Mon Jul 25, 2016, 12:36 PM
Jul 2016

Even now when I travel to southwest WI, I see plenty of signs supporting him.

And worse, his new Supreme Court selection is a younger, far worse version of the guy who left the bench.


ChairmanAgnostic

(28,017 posts)
78. On top of some fine political figures, there was Joe McCarthy, too.
Mon Jul 25, 2016, 02:25 PM
Jul 2016

Hmm. The first state to pass fair work hours, mandatory time off, workers compensation, the first state to have multiple low cost state universities, and far, far more.

 

Still In Wisconsin

(4,450 posts)
84. Off year elections and an incompetent state party.
Mon Jul 25, 2016, 02:43 PM
Jul 2016

Wisconsin Democrats stay home in droves in non-presidential years, and until last year the state party was run by the comically inept Mike Tate.

ChairmanAgnostic

(28,017 posts)
85. Hey, I feel for you. We have Rauner, a POS who is smarter and more evil
Mon Jul 25, 2016, 02:55 PM
Jul 2016

than Wanker.

Unfortunately, some on our side go out of their way to make things worse. At least we have a partial budget. But health, education, child services, roads and bridges, all took a big hit.

 

Still In Wisconsin

(4,450 posts)
87. When Rauner was elected I thought to myself, "Oh no not them too!"
Mon Jul 25, 2016, 03:07 PM
Jul 2016

Although I was born and raised in Milwaukee, approximately half of my extended family is in the Chicago area. All but one uncle and one aunt are Democrats. They are ALL huge Bears and Cubs fans... but not even Bears and Cubs fans deserve that POS Governor


On edit: I actually like the Cubs, but don't tell any of my Wisconsin friends!



ChairmanAgnostic

(28,017 posts)
88. Your secret is safe with me. I promise to tell no one.
Mon Jul 25, 2016, 03:14 PM
Jul 2016

Funny thing is, Quinn had a horrible deck left to him. Blago (or as my now deceased 104 year old grandmother called him, blaggosumabitch) really screwed things up. Just as we had a chance to fix the budget, and both D and R sides were ready to talk, he called several special sessions on the budget, then did not show up. I feel sorry for Quinn. He was/is a good man.

But Rauner is a menace. Luckily he caved, because he had to. I suspect lynching was in order if he did not. But he is not defanged. He is much richer and smarter than Wanker, and that makes him more dangerous.

 

Still In Wisconsin

(4,450 posts)
90. I think you're right... the Kochs seem to have kicked Wanker (and Ron "Senator Dumbass" Johnson
Mon Jul 25, 2016, 03:39 PM
Jul 2016

to the curb. Without Koch cash Walker has only Diane Hendricks- basically Wisconsin's version of the Kochs, but nearly as rich.

Yeah, Blago screwed you guys over good. Hopefully the good people of Illinois will rid themselves of Rauner in short order!

RAFisher

(466 posts)
65. Trump doesn't need either of those to win.
Mon Jul 25, 2016, 12:38 PM
Jul 2016

Nate has Trump with 270 EV currently. Starting with 2012 Obama states Clinton loses Nevada, Iowa, Florida, New Hampshire and Ohio. All states that bush won in 2000 and 2004 with exception to New Hampshire going blue in 2004. That puts it as 269-269 a tie. But Silver has Trump winning Maine's 2nd congressional district putting him at 270. Nebraska and Maine are the only states that allocate EV based on congressional districts.

TomCADem

(17,382 posts)
15. Think a Majority of Americans Are Bigots and Trump...
Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:08 AM
Jul 2016

...totally validates such hate. This is why I've been posting a lot of these polls, too.

In Europe, right wing nationalists have risen to prominence. Our nation has had a long history of racism. This is bigger than Hillary and the DNC.

still_one

(92,060 posts)
20. I am not convinced they are a majority, but there are a hell of a lot more than we are led to believ
Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:11 AM
Jul 2016

TomCADem

(17,382 posts)
31. People Hear What They Want To Hear...
Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:19 AM
Jul 2016

Protecting Gays from Muslims...
Protecting Christians from Gays...
Protecting African Americans from Mexicans...
Protecting Police from African Americans...
Protecting Women from Rampant Violence...
Protecting Men from a Political Correct Bias from Women...

These were the messages from the RNC, and each hate filled appeal could resonate with every segment of the population.

ChairmanAgnostic

(28,017 posts)
92. Or, perhaps, they are just louder.
Mon Jul 25, 2016, 05:15 PM
Jul 2016

They have always been present, but most of the time, they were shamed into silence. Under trump, they have been empowered.

I don't mean to go Godwin here, but he is a fucking used car salesman, reality show, fascist. A damn nazi.

uawchild

(2,208 posts)
24. Please take this seriously -- Trump is a very real threat in November
Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:15 AM
Jul 2016

After that DUMPSTER FIRE of a convention, Trump now leads?

This can't be ignored, at least it should not be ignored -- Trump is a very real threat to win in November.

IT SHOULD NOT BE CLOSE AT ALL, let alone have Trump leading.

Who said IT'S THE ECONOMY, STUPID? Wasn't that Bill Clinton? THAT is very true in this election.

"Growth in white poverty fuels Trump’s run: Largely ignoring the trend has consequences

The GOP overlooked the poverty that's spread to white suburbs — those neglected Americans turned to Trump
by ROBERT HENNELLY

Growth in white poverty fuels Trump's run: Largely ignoring the trend has consequences

Donald Trump (Credit: Reuters/Jonathan Ernst)
There was Donald Trump standing on the platform center stage at the Quicken Loans Arena basking in the moment the highest paid minds in media and politics told us over and over he would never have. What accounts for his improbable rise and what does it say about where our nation is really headed?

Just how did our corporate news media miss the amassing of the millions of mostly angry white voters with their pitchforks and torches that helped Trump stage a hostile takeover of the GOP?

Could it be that the elites of both parties, and their media stenographers, ignored the plight of poor whites for so long that they missed the explosion in their numbers, even as they marched on the town square?

Certainly, people of such poor education and such low social circumstance could not impact the politics of a nation so wordily and wealthy as America. Perhaps, the oversight is understandable. After all, with no disposable income worth targeting, there was no reason to run any detailed analytics on poor whites, unless you were selling beer, guns and bibles.

The reality is that under the current Democratic occupant of the White House, and a Republican-controlled Congress, poverty has exploded and expanded from its traditional urban and rural concentrations into America’s white suburbs. This precipitous deterioration happened as beltway leaders of both parties put their partisan gamesmanship and personal enrichment ahead of attending to the increasing ranks of the nation’s poor and struggling working class of all colors.

In the early 1970s the country had well under 25 million poor people and by 2014, the more recent available data, it was approaching close to 48 million people. But the spike in the real numbers is only part of the story which could help to catapult Trump right into the White House.

According to the Brookings Institute’s “The Growth and Spread of Concentrated Poverty” between 2008 and 2012 our urban poor population grew overall by 21 percent “while in suburbs it more than doubled, growing by 105 percent.” Almost every major metropolitan area in the country saw the number of suburban families living in high poverty and distressed neighborhoods go up.

Over the same period the percentage of white households, living in census tracts where at least 20 percent of the population is living below the poverty line, spiked from 30 percent to 37 percent. Concurrently the percentage of African-American and Latino households living in those depressed zip codes dropped by 4 percent. For foreign born families there was a 3 percent decline.
http://www.salon.com/2016/07/25/growth_in_white_poverty_fuels_trumps_run_largely_ignoring_the_trend_has_consequences/

This is why Trump's nativist populist demagoguery has traction, we ignore it at our own peril.

LonePirate

(13,407 posts)
43. Dumpster fire of a convention is putting it nicely. His convention was an unmitigated disaster.
Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:25 AM
Jul 2016

And yet his position with the voters has improved. I have no words to describe this. I simply don't understand what is happening or why.

uawchild

(2,208 posts)
45. What will happen if Trump actually has a good week in the press?
Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:28 AM
Jul 2016

I shudder to think. Like I said, he's a very real threat in November, people ignoring that have their heads in the sand.

bucolic_frolic

(43,029 posts)
25. Every obstacle, double your effort!
Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:16 AM
Jul 2016

I am sure county Democratic HQ in most counties would be glad to
have the help of volunteers from DU

The election is not won or lost here online

It's won on turnout, GOTV, in November

My local folks have contacted me, make sure you do the same
in your community!

Clinton-Kaine 2016!

 

UMTerp01

(1,048 posts)
27. Ummm....no it doesn't. Hillary is still ahead
Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:17 AM
Jul 2016

I think some recent changes to the map though are NH light pink from light blue and IA from light pink from light blue the last time I looked. Hillary still ahead though.

Yo_Mama

(8,303 posts)
28. By probability only. Wait till after the convention - right now this means little
Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:17 AM
Jul 2016

Okay, it's not GOOD Dem news, but it is hardly proof of anything.

NaturalHigh

(12,778 posts)
39. HahaHahaHahaHahaHahaHaha
Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:23 AM
Jul 2016

I'm still taking bets for anyone who thinks that Clinton will not win this election. Wait and see - in the end it won't even be close.

bullimiami

(13,074 posts)
40. 538 made a point of saying the polling is very erratic this early.
Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:24 AM
Jul 2016

And it should at least be after the conventions before they start to settle down and show some consistency.

unblock

(52,113 posts)
46. from 538's site regarding now-casts:
Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:31 AM
Jul 2016
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-users-guide-to-fivethirtyeights-2016-general-election-forecast/

Differences between polls-only and now-cast
◾The now-cast is basically the polls-only model, except that we lie to our computer and tell it the election is today.
◾As a result, the now-cast is very aggressive. It’s much more confident than polls-plus or polls-only; it weights recent polls more heavily and is more aggressive in calculating a trend line.
There could be some big differences around the conventions. The polls-only and polls-plus models discount polls taken just after the conventions, whereas the now-cast will work to quickly capture the convention bounce.

Equinox Moon

(6,344 posts)
50. Sounds like non-scense to me
Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:47 AM
Jul 2016

I really don't like this "polling" thing in general. Let's talk about the issues and ability to hold that office.
Plus, let's talk about the Party and the many, many candidates running for office. The Presidential election carries too much weight.

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
52. Use this as motivation to unite! Dump DWS, focus on Sanders and Warren supporting Hillary, and put
Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:51 AM
Jul 2016

together a winning convention!

merrily

(45,251 posts)
54. I cannot get emotional about polls or odds until at least September.
Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:55 AM
Jul 2016

Been there, done that in 2008 and it was not smart.

And I cannot ever get emotional about anything based on the popular vote.

This is a swing state game and people don't pay attention until voting day nears, if then.

Democat

(11,617 posts)
55. Maybe it's time for DU to start banning right wing trolls?
Mon Jul 25, 2016, 12:00 PM
Jul 2016

It's not funny how this site is being taken over by pro-Trump trolls.

George II

(67,782 posts)
56. Here are todays numbers. I guess he's hedging his bets by picking both?
Mon Jul 25, 2016, 12:00 PM
Jul 2016

Using "Polls Only":

Chance of winning: Hillary Clinton 53.7% Donald Trump 46.2%
Electoral Vote Count: Hillary Clinton 282.9 Donald Trump 254.9 Gary Johnson 0.2

Using "Polls Plus":

Chance of winning: Hillary Clinton 58.2% Donald Trump 41.7%
Electoral Vote Count: Hillary Clinton 276.4 Donald Trump 261.1 Gary Johnson 0.6

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#plus

vadermike

(1,415 posts)
59. Ugh
Mon Jul 25, 2016, 12:11 PM
Jul 2016

We are in deep shit .. Plus the other polls showing trump ahead .. I think we may be toast It does t seem to matter what he says ..and he is still gaining traction We have a serious problem

oswaldactedalone

(3,489 posts)
60. Funny how
Mon Jul 25, 2016, 12:12 PM
Jul 2016

Nate was our hero in '08 and '12 and was universally praised for his models and predictions. Now, this report today and he's a villain. I like DU but there should be more objectivity here and less bashing of anything that's not for the Democrats. While Democrats make far less mistakes than the Thugs and are for more thoughtful in their positions, they're human and make mistakes as well. Stop bashing anyone who points out these mistakes or comments on bad polling and be more fair and objective.

RAFisher

(466 posts)
67. Anti-intellectualism exists on the right and left sadly.
Mon Jul 25, 2016, 12:50 PM
Jul 2016

Sometimes reality goes against preexisting beliefs. When presented with a contradiction do people accept the new reality or come up with some excuse why the facts must be wrong? I see this type of thinking on the left and right. FBI stats disprove an increase in crime? The FBI can't be trusted. Polling shows Trump up? Silver must be doing something evil.

If anyone actually read Silver they'd see he's very fair and points out shortcomings. He has different models because, by design, the main model does not factor in the convention bump. Hopefully this is all just a convention bump but we shall see.

 

The Second Stone

(2,900 posts)
68. No it doesn't and it never has. I check it every day.
Mon Jul 25, 2016, 01:02 PM
Jul 2016
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Clinton has always been significantly ahead in the electoral prediction. Trump has made alarming progress to closing the gap, but it is still safely out of reach.

yawnmaster

(2,812 posts)
69. what the OP is referencing is fivethirtyeights prediction if the election were held TODAY...
Mon Jul 25, 2016, 01:06 PM
Jul 2016

the forcasted prediction for actual election day shows Hillary leading.

Oneironaut

(5,479 posts)
72. Stop attacking the messenger and take this seriously.
Mon Jul 25, 2016, 01:43 PM
Jul 2016

Trump has a very good chance of winning. Democrats still seem to not take him very seriously. They won't believe it until Trump is elected.

As much as I can't stand Hillary, Trump would be a disaster. Democrats seem to be of a mind that Trump will never win, so they can just relax and sit this one out. Trump is going to ride that apathy to the White House.

RussBLib

(9,002 posts)
74. convention bounce is all
Mon Jul 25, 2016, 01:45 PM
Jul 2016

some people obviously respond positively to all the anger and hate

those numbers should go back down after the Dem convention and Hillary will probably pull ahead again

DesertRat

(27,995 posts)
86. Trump will win if we don't unite.
Mon Jul 25, 2016, 02:57 PM
Jul 2016

We have to work hard to GOTV for Clinton/Kaine. We cannot allow Trump to appoint judges to the SCOTUS who will set us back 50 years.

haele

(12,635 posts)
81. Post Convention skew. All the media talked about was "Trump"....
Mon Jul 25, 2016, 02:41 PM
Jul 2016

Two weeks from now, it will probably be Hillary with a 15 percentage lead - because at least half of the people polled aren't really thinking about who they're actually going to be voting for, or even if they get off their duffs and vote in November. Unless those surveyed also give specifics about what is important to them and why that makes them favor one candidate or another, it's pretty much an exercise in Media push-polling, and not really informative as to how a candidate is really doing. "Who will I vote for now?" is a silly question if the so-called independent voter hasn't even made up his/her mind to get out and vote because there's too much else to think about or pay attention to right now.

Unless I was part of a campaign and looking at the questions asked and how the answers were categorized so as to tweak strategy, all these polls really mean very little until late September, and even then, polls are little more than extrapolated trends with a huge margin of error and environmental factors that can affect the results.

Haele

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