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Mon Jul 25, 2016, 10:56 AM

 

FiveThirtyEight election forecast shows Trump ahead

Source: Politico

Political analyst Nate Silver’s latest forecast has Republican nominee Donald Trump with a 15 percentage point-greater chance of beating presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton if the election were held today, according to FiveThirtyEight.

Silver's "now-cast," updated with fresh surveys on Monday, shows Trump's current likelihood of winning at 57.5 percent, compared with Clinton’s 42.5 percent. In the 11 battleground states, Colorado, Virginia and Michigan would go to Clinton, while Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Iowa would go to Trump.

The breakdown shifts a bit between the Electoral College and the popular vote. Silver's model currently predicts the popular vote going 45.4 percent to Trump vs. 45.1 percent to Clinton, but the Electoral College giving Trump a wider margin of victory, 285 votes and Clinton 252.6.




Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/fivethirtyeight-trump-winning-226114

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Reply FiveThirtyEight election forecast shows Trump ahead (Original post)
bathroommonkey76 Jul 2016 OP
Dawgs Jul 2016 #1
Loki Liesmith Jul 2016 #5
bathroommonkey76 Jul 2016 #6
Capt. Obvious Jul 2016 #18
Dawgs Jul 2016 #73
StrictlyRockers Jul 2016 #76
forest444 Jul 2016 #82
adigal Jul 2016 #95
Loki Liesmith Jul 2016 #2
bathroommonkey76 Jul 2016 #11
still_one Jul 2016 #16
bathroommonkey76 Jul 2016 #23
still_one Jul 2016 #30
harrose Jul 2016 #96
still_one Jul 2016 #97
humbled_opinion Jul 2016 #3
bathroommonkey76 Jul 2016 #13
regnaD kciN Jul 2016 #4
Name removed Jul 2016 #9
bathroommonkey76 Jul 2016 #17
stopbush Jul 2016 #61
Chimichurri Jul 2016 #7
REALforever Jul 2016 #8
jonno99 Jul 2016 #34
onecaliberal Jul 2016 #10
Capt. Obvious Jul 2016 #19
onecaliberal Jul 2016 #42
Capt. Obvious Jul 2016 #49
Ace Rothstein Jul 2016 #32
tman Jul 2016 #12
Still In Wisconsin Jul 2016 #14
tman Jul 2016 #22
ChairmanAgnostic Jul 2016 #64
Jimbo S Jul 2016 #77
ChairmanAgnostic Jul 2016 #78
Still In Wisconsin Jul 2016 #84
ChairmanAgnostic Jul 2016 #85
Still In Wisconsin Jul 2016 #87
ChairmanAgnostic Jul 2016 #88
Still In Wisconsin Jul 2016 #90
RAFisher Jul 2016 #65
harun Jul 2016 #94
TomCADem Jul 2016 #15
still_one Jul 2016 #20
TomCADem Jul 2016 #31
ChairmanAgnostic Jul 2016 #92
still_one Jul 2016 #93
Tess49 Jul 2016 #21
bathroommonkey76 Jul 2016 #26
Major Nikon Jul 2016 #29
uawchild Jul 2016 #24
LonePirate Jul 2016 #43
bathroommonkey76 Jul 2016 #44
uawchild Jul 2016 #45
bucolic_frolic Jul 2016 #25
UMTerp01 Jul 2016 #27
bathroommonkey76 Jul 2016 #33
Yo_Mama Jul 2016 #28
Helen Borg Jul 2016 #37
bathroommonkey76 Jul 2016 #41
jonno99 Jul 2016 #38
Doodley Jul 2016 #35
Helen Borg Jul 2016 #36
NaturalHigh Jul 2016 #39
bullimiami Jul 2016 #40
unblock Jul 2016 #46
bathroommonkey76 Jul 2016 #48
tralala Jul 2016 #47
Equinox Moon Jul 2016 #50
Vinca Jul 2016 #51
Attorney in Texas Jul 2016 #52
Cattledog Jul 2016 #53
merrily Jul 2016 #54
Democat Jul 2016 #55
George II Jul 2016 #56
judesedit Jul 2016 #57
jimlup Jul 2016 #58
vadermike Jul 2016 #59
Democat Jul 2016 #66
oswaldactedalone Jul 2016 #60
RAFisher Jul 2016 #67
shireen Jul 2016 #62
Mister K Jul 2016 #63
bathroommonkey76 Jul 2016 #71
Grey Lemercier Jul 2016 #83
The Second Stone Jul 2016 #68
yawnmaster Jul 2016 #69
sinkingfeeling Jul 2016 #70
Oneironaut Jul 2016 #72
RussBLib Jul 2016 #74
tblue37 Jul 2016 #75
Scorpionflyx Jul 2016 #79
DesertRat Jul 2016 #86
Scorpionflyx Jul 2016 #89
VMA131Marine Jul 2016 #80
haele Jul 2016 #81
we can do it Jul 2016 #91
heresAthingdotcom Jul 2016 #98

Response to bathroommonkey76 (Original post)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 10:58 AM

1. Silver's a jackass, and not because of this.

 

Can you please stop posting anything that comes from him or his site?

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Response to Dawgs (Reply #1)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 10:59 AM

5. It's data

Just don't approach it emotionally.

Let's see where the betting markets stand after a few days.

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Response to Dawgs (Reply #1)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:01 AM

6. Didn't Silver's site predict the last two

 

elections?

Not sure why you're calling him a "jackass".

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Response to bathroommonkey76 (Reply #6)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:10 AM

18. Because

Reasons

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Response to bathroommonkey76 (Reply #6)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 01:44 PM

73. Simple math predicted the last two elections.

 

He's a snack oil salesman and you obviously bought what he was selling.

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Response to bathroommonkey76 (Reply #6)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 02:04 PM

76. I think the reason he's calling Silver a jackass is because the dude's a jackass

Really.

And how does he manage to get paid when he is wrong sooooo much?

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Response to StrictlyRockers (Reply #76)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 02:42 PM

82. Exactly.

He's not running for prom king; he's a statistician - and a pretty good one. Any Democrat who chooses to look away at polls because they look bad, does so at his or her peril.

For what it's worth my Tarot cards indicate Hillary will indeed win, and she'll do so thanks in no small part to both Bernie Sanders and Gary Johnson.

I certainly hope so.

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Response to bathroommonkey76 (Reply #6)

Tue Jul 26, 2016, 07:48 PM

95. We believe him when he says Hillary is ahead

 

And call him names when he says Trump is ahead. Because people didn't listen about just how unpopular Hillary is. And this latest honorary position for DWS has got a lot of people I know even madder.

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Response to bathroommonkey76 (Original post)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 10:58 AM

2. Not bad

If that's the best trump can do (just barely winning the EC) after his convention we are good.

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Response to Loki Liesmith (Reply #2)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:02 AM

11. I hope you're right.

 

I've been afraid ever since Michael Moore said Trump was gonna win.

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Response to bathroommonkey76 (Reply #11)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:09 AM

16. Moore also said Romney was going to win. I suspect Moore's comment is to encourage people to GOTV

using reverse psychology

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Response to still_one (Reply #16)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:13 AM

23. Moore is definitely using psychology to get out the vote.

 

But it's still frightening to hear.

I know people in NC who have never voted & will be voting for Trump-- I just hope the Dems can iron out all of the issues we have before the election.

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Response to bathroommonkey76 (Reply #23)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:18 AM

30. The truth is, anyone who votes for Trump is either a racist, or willfully ignorant.

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Response to still_one (Reply #30)

Tue Jul 26, 2016, 08:43 PM

96. I don't know why you'd give anyone the benefit of the doubt and call them ignorant...

... anyone who votes for Trump is a Rethug racist, sexist homophobe who wants to return blacks to slavery, take away the vote from everyone except rich white men and roll back times to when LGBT people were stoned in the streets.

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Response to harrose (Reply #96)

Tue Jul 26, 2016, 08:45 PM

97. I cannot argue with that

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Response to bathroommonkey76 (Original post)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 10:58 AM

3. WTF

I used to have confidence in Nate Silver...Is this all about the DNC emails?

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Response to humbled_opinion (Reply #3)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:07 AM

13. He said it was a convention bounce that's likely to fade.

 

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Response to bathroommonkey76 (Original post)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 10:59 AM

4. "If the election were held today…"

In both of their other formulas (polls-only and polls-plus), Clinton maintains a lead.

Probably a good thing that elections aren't held after one party's convention but before the other's, isn't it?

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Response to regnaD kciN (Reply #4)


Response to regnaD kciN (Reply #4)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:09 AM

17. You are correct.

 

The debates are going to be frightening-- Those bounces usually stick and there's no telling what Trump will do or say against HRC.

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Response to regnaD kciN (Reply #4)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 12:30 PM

61. And if the election was held last week, Hillary would win

and if the election were held next week, Hillary would win.

Polls are not predictive. They are a snapshot in time. So unless the government decides to move the election up to TODAY, I don't see what all the worrying is about.

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Response to bathroommonkey76 (Original post)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:01 AM

7. Yikes I don't understand how

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Response to bathroommonkey76 (Original post)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:01 AM

8. Nate's Pretty Good, but I think we should wait till after Dem Convention

I'm not sure what the fresh new polls are, but there are some that are quite consistently outliers. Is he using those in his most recent model?

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Response to REALforever (Reply #8)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:20 AM

34. +1

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Response to bathroommonkey76 (Original post)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:02 AM

10. Fuck Nate Silver

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Response to onecaliberal (Reply #10)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:11 AM

19. HE'S WORSE THAN RALPH NADER

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Response to Capt. Obvious (Reply #19)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:25 AM

42. Talk about trying to influence the outcome.

He just needs to STFU.

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Response to onecaliberal (Reply #42)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:43 AM

49. AND CATCH ON FIRE

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Response to onecaliberal (Reply #10)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:19 AM

32. Why?

All he does is use available data.

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Response to bathroommonkey76 (Original post)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:05 AM

12. No way Pennsylvania/Wisconsin go Trump

Relax.

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Response to tman (Reply #12)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:08 AM

14. Wisconsin to Trump? Um, no.

 

The last R to carry WI in a presidential election was Raygun in '84. The cons here hate Trump. A good number of them will vote for Gary Johnson or stay home. The only R's here who like Trump are the rural ones, and that's actually a pretty small slice of the pie.

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Response to Still In Wisconsin (Reply #14)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:12 AM

22. Exactly

The forecasts are too far off the mark for me too worry about.

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Response to Still In Wisconsin (Reply #14)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 12:36 PM

64. Then how did that Wanker win re-election?

Even now when I travel to southwest WI, I see plenty of signs supporting him.

And worse, his new Supreme Court selection is a younger, far worse version of the guy who left the bench.


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Response to ChairmanAgnostic (Reply #64)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 02:22 PM

77. Messaging

Messaging
Current lack of depth in the Wisconsin Democratic Party

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Response to Jimbo S (Reply #77)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 02:25 PM

78. On top of some fine political figures, there was Joe McCarthy, too.

Hmm. The first state to pass fair work hours, mandatory time off, workers compensation, the first state to have multiple low cost state universities, and far, far more.

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Response to ChairmanAgnostic (Reply #64)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 02:43 PM

84. Off year elections and an incompetent state party.

 

Wisconsin Democrats stay home in droves in non-presidential years, and until last year the state party was run by the comically inept Mike Tate.

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Response to Still In Wisconsin (Reply #84)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 02:55 PM

85. Hey, I feel for you. We have Rauner, a POS who is smarter and more evil

than Wanker.

Unfortunately, some on our side go out of their way to make things worse. At least we have a partial budget. But health, education, child services, roads and bridges, all took a big hit.

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Response to ChairmanAgnostic (Reply #85)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 03:07 PM

87. When Rauner was elected I thought to myself, "Oh no not them too!"

 

Although I was born and raised in Milwaukee, approximately half of my extended family is in the Chicago area. All but one uncle and one aunt are Democrats. They are ALL huge Bears and Cubs fans... but not even Bears and Cubs fans deserve that POS Governor


On edit: I actually like the Cubs, but don't tell any of my Wisconsin friends!



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Response to Still In Wisconsin (Reply #87)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 03:14 PM

88. Your secret is safe with me. I promise to tell no one.

Funny thing is, Quinn had a horrible deck left to him. Blago (or as my now deceased 104 year old grandmother called him, blaggosumabitch) really screwed things up. Just as we had a chance to fix the budget, and both D and R sides were ready to talk, he called several special sessions on the budget, then did not show up. I feel sorry for Quinn. He was/is a good man.

But Rauner is a menace. Luckily he caved, because he had to. I suspect lynching was in order if he did not. But he is not defanged. He is much richer and smarter than Wanker, and that makes him more dangerous.

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Response to ChairmanAgnostic (Reply #88)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 03:39 PM

90. I think you're right... the Kochs seem to have kicked Wanker (and Ron "Senator Dumbass" Johnson

 

to the curb. Without Koch cash Walker has only Diane Hendricks- basically Wisconsin's version of the Kochs, but nearly as rich.

Yeah, Blago screwed you guys over good. Hopefully the good people of Illinois will rid themselves of Rauner in short order!

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Response to tman (Reply #12)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 12:38 PM

65. Trump doesn't need either of those to win.

Nate has Trump with 270 EV currently. Starting with 2012 Obama states Clinton loses Nevada, Iowa, Florida, New Hampshire and Ohio. All states that bush won in 2000 and 2004 with exception to New Hampshire going blue in 2004. That puts it as 269-269 a tie. But Silver has Trump winning Maine's 2nd congressional district putting him at 270. Nebraska and Maine are the only states that allocate EV based on congressional districts.

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Response to tman (Reply #12)

Tue Jul 26, 2016, 08:16 AM

94. Will depend on turnout for both. But Trump needs neither.

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Response to bathroommonkey76 (Original post)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:08 AM

15. Think a Majority of Americans Are Bigots and Trump...

...totally validates such hate. This is why I've been posting a lot of these polls, too.

In Europe, right wing nationalists have risen to prominence. Our nation has had a long history of racism. This is bigger than Hillary and the DNC.

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Response to TomCADem (Reply #15)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:11 AM

20. I am not convinced they are a majority, but there are a hell of a lot more than we are led to believ

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Response to still_one (Reply #20)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:19 AM

31. People Hear What They Want To Hear...

Protecting Gays from Muslims...
Protecting Christians from Gays...
Protecting African Americans from Mexicans...
Protecting Police from African Americans...
Protecting Women from Rampant Violence...
Protecting Men from a Political Correct Bias from Women...

These were the messages from the RNC, and each hate filled appeal could resonate with every segment of the population.

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Response to still_one (Reply #20)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 05:15 PM

92. Or, perhaps, they are just louder.

They have always been present, but most of the time, they were shamed into silence. Under trump, they have been empowered.

I don't mean to go Godwin here, but he is a fucking used car salesman, reality show, fascist. A damn nazi.

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Response to ChairmanAgnostic (Reply #92)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 05:25 PM

93. good point

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Response to bathroommonkey76 (Original post)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:12 AM

21. Just went to 538. Shows Clinton 53.7, Trump 46.2 n/t

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Response to Tess49 (Reply #21)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:16 AM

26. From Silver's Twitter feed (posted 2 hours ago)

 

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/757558402667188224

I don't think his site has updated yet.

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Response to Tess49 (Reply #21)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:18 AM

29. You have to click on "now cast"

Now-cast: A projection of what would happen in a hypothetical election held today. Much more aggressive than the other models.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-users-guide-to-fivethirtyeights-2016-general-election-forecast/

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Response to bathroommonkey76 (Original post)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:15 AM

24. Please take this seriously -- Trump is a very real threat in November

After that DUMPSTER FIRE of a convention, Trump now leads?

This can't be ignored, at least it should not be ignored -- Trump is a very real threat to win in November.

IT SHOULD NOT BE CLOSE AT ALL, let alone have Trump leading.

Who said IT'S THE ECONOMY, STUPID? Wasn't that Bill Clinton? THAT is very true in this election.

"Growth in white poverty fuels Trump’s run: Largely ignoring the trend has consequences

The GOP overlooked the poverty that's spread to white suburbs — those neglected Americans turned to Trump
by ROBERT HENNELLY

Growth in white poverty fuels Trump's run: Largely ignoring the trend has consequences

Donald Trump (Credit: Reuters/Jonathan Ernst)
There was Donald Trump standing on the platform center stage at the Quicken Loans Arena basking in the moment the highest paid minds in media and politics told us over and over he would never have. What accounts for his improbable rise and what does it say about where our nation is really headed?

Just how did our corporate news media miss the amassing of the millions of mostly angry white voters with their pitchforks and torches that helped Trump stage a hostile takeover of the GOP?

Could it be that the elites of both parties, and their media stenographers, ignored the plight of poor whites for so long that they missed the explosion in their numbers, even as they marched on the town square?

Certainly, people of such poor education and such low social circumstance could not impact the politics of a nation so wordily and wealthy as America. Perhaps, the oversight is understandable. After all, with no disposable income worth targeting, there was no reason to run any detailed analytics on poor whites, unless you were selling beer, guns and bibles.

The reality is that under the current Democratic occupant of the White House, and a Republican-controlled Congress, poverty has exploded and expanded from its traditional urban and rural concentrations into America’s white suburbs. This precipitous deterioration happened as beltway leaders of both parties put their partisan gamesmanship and personal enrichment ahead of attending to the increasing ranks of the nation’s poor and struggling working class of all colors.

In the early 1970s the country had well under 25 million poor people and by 2014, the more recent available data, it was approaching close to 48 million people. But the spike in the real numbers is only part of the story which could help to catapult Trump right into the White House.

According to the Brookings Institute’s “The Growth and Spread of Concentrated Poverty” between 2008 and 2012 our urban poor population grew overall by 21 percent “while in suburbs it more than doubled, growing by 105 percent.” Almost every major metropolitan area in the country saw the number of suburban families living in high poverty and distressed neighborhoods go up.

Over the same period the percentage of white households, living in census tracts where at least 20 percent of the population is living below the poverty line, spiked from 30 percent to 37 percent. Concurrently the percentage of African-American and Latino households living in those depressed zip codes dropped by 4 percent. For foreign born families there was a 3 percent decline.
http://www.salon.com/2016/07/25/growth_in_white_poverty_fuels_trumps_run_largely_ignoring_the_trend_has_consequences/

This is why Trump's nativist populist demagoguery has traction, we ignore it at our own peril.

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Response to uawchild (Reply #24)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:25 AM

43. Dumpster fire of a convention is putting it nicely. His convention was an unmitigated disaster.

And yet his position with the voters has improved. I have no words to describe this. I simply don't understand what is happening or why.

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Response to LonePirate (Reply #43)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:28 AM

44. It's freaking scary

 

and people should be taking it seriously.

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Response to LonePirate (Reply #43)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:28 AM

45. What will happen if Trump actually has a good week in the press?

I shudder to think. Like I said, he's a very real threat in November, people ignoring that have their heads in the sand.

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Response to bathroommonkey76 (Original post)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:16 AM

25. Every obstacle, double your effort!

I am sure county Democratic HQ in most counties would be glad to
have the help of volunteers from DU

The election is not won or lost here online

It's won on turnout, GOTV, in November

My local folks have contacted me, make sure you do the same
in your community!

Clinton-Kaine 2016!

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Response to bathroommonkey76 (Original post)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:17 AM

27. Ummm....no it doesn't. Hillary is still ahead

 

I think some recent changes to the map though are NH light pink from light blue and IA from light pink from light blue the last time I looked. Hillary still ahead though.

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Response to UMTerp01 (Reply #27)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:20 AM

33. Silver posted this on Twitter 2 hours ago.

 

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Response to bathroommonkey76 (Original post)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:17 AM

28. By probability only. Wait till after the convention - right now this means little

Okay, it's not GOOD Dem news, but it is hardly proof of anything.

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Response to Yo_Mama (Reply #28)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:22 AM

37. With the fucked up Convention they had...

This does NOT mean little, I'm afraid.

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Response to Helen Borg (Reply #37)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:25 AM

41. Agreed.

 

He should be falling behind after that effed up clownfest.

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Response to Yo_Mama (Reply #28)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:23 AM

38. Yep - and it's still a long way from November...nt

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Response to bathroommonkey76 (Original post)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:20 AM

35. This is very serious. We have to face it, Trump could win. And the world will lose.

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Response to bathroommonkey76 (Original post)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:21 AM

36. Ooops.

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Response to bathroommonkey76 (Original post)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:23 AM

39. HahaHahaHahaHahaHahaHaha

I'm still taking bets for anyone who thinks that Clinton will not win this election. Wait and see - in the end it won't even be close.

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Response to bathroommonkey76 (Original post)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:24 AM

40. 538 made a point of saying the polling is very erratic this early.

And it should at least be after the conventions before they start to settle down and show some consistency.

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Response to bathroommonkey76 (Original post)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:31 AM

46. from 538's site regarding now-casts:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-users-guide-to-fivethirtyeights-2016-general-election-forecast/

Differences between polls-only and now-cast
◾The now-cast is basically the polls-only model, except that we lie to our computer and tell it the election is today.
◾As a result, the now-cast is very aggressive. It’s much more confident than polls-plus or polls-only; it weights recent polls more heavily and is more aggressive in calculating a trend line.
There could be some big differences around the conventions. The polls-only and polls-plus models discount polls taken just after the conventions, whereas the now-cast will work to quickly capture the convention bounce.

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Response to unblock (Reply #46)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:36 AM

48. Thanks for posting. n/t

 

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Response to bathroommonkey76 (Original post)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:34 AM

47. Thought the polls don't mean a thing until Labor Day

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Response to bathroommonkey76 (Original post)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:47 AM

50. Sounds like non-scense to me

I really don't like this "polling" thing in general. Let's talk about the issues and ability to hold that office.
Plus, let's talk about the Party and the many, many candidates running for office. The Presidential election carries too much weight.

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Response to bathroommonkey76 (Original post)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:50 AM

51. That's scary. The country has officially gone nuts.

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Response to bathroommonkey76 (Original post)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:51 AM

52. Use this as motivation to unite! Dump DWS, focus on Sanders and Warren supporting Hillary, and put

together a winning convention!

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Response to bathroommonkey76 (Original post)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 11:55 AM

54. I cannot get emotional about polls or odds until at least September.

Been there, done that in 2008 and it was not smart.

And I cannot ever get emotional about anything based on the popular vote.

This is a swing state game and people don't pay attention until voting day nears, if then.

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Response to bathroommonkey76 (Original post)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 12:00 PM

55. Maybe it's time for DU to start banning right wing trolls?

It's not funny how this site is being taken over by pro-Trump trolls.

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Response to bathroommonkey76 (Original post)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 12:00 PM

56. Here are todays numbers. I guess he's hedging his bets by picking both?

Using "Polls Only":

Chance of winning: Hillary Clinton 53.7% Donald Trump 46.2%
Electoral Vote Count: Hillary Clinton 282.9 Donald Trump 254.9 Gary Johnson 0.2

Using "Polls Plus":

Chance of winning: Hillary Clinton 58.2% Donald Trump 41.7%
Electoral Vote Count: Hillary Clinton 276.4 Donald Trump 261.1 Gary Johnson 0.6

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#plus

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Response to bathroommonkey76 (Original post)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 12:05 PM

57. Not according to the 538 polls+ or polls only. Trump got a bump. Now for the Democratic Convention

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Response to bathroommonkey76 (Original post)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 12:06 PM

58. This is a serious concern

we'd better have a good convention bounce.

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Response to bathroommonkey76 (Original post)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 12:11 PM

59. Ugh

We are in deep shit .. Plus the other polls showing trump ahead .. I think we may be toast It does t seem to matter what he says ..and he is still gaining traction We have a serious problem

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Response to vadermike (Reply #59)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 12:47 PM

66. You sound suspiciously like you want Trump to win

A little concerned today?

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Response to bathroommonkey76 (Original post)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 12:12 PM

60. Funny how

Nate was our hero in '08 and '12 and was universally praised for his models and predictions. Now, this report today and he's a villain. I like DU but there should be more objectivity here and less bashing of anything that's not for the Democrats. While Democrats make far less mistakes than the Thugs and are for more thoughtful in their positions, they're human and make mistakes as well. Stop bashing anyone who points out these mistakes or comments on bad polling and be more fair and objective.

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Response to oswaldactedalone (Reply #60)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 12:50 PM

67. Anti-intellectualism exists on the right and left sadly.

Sometimes reality goes against preexisting beliefs. When presented with a contradiction do people accept the new reality or come up with some excuse why the facts must be wrong? I see this type of thinking on the left and right. FBI stats disprove an increase in crime? The FBI can't be trusted. Polling shows Trump up? Silver must be doing something evil.

If anyone actually read Silver they'd see he's very fair and points out shortcomings. He has different models because, by design, the main model does not factor in the convention bump. Hopefully this is all just a convention bump but we shall see.

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Response to bathroommonkey76 (Original post)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 12:31 PM

62. Bullshit

Either his math is wrong or people are messing with him.

Hillary WILL win. No question.

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Response to bathroommonkey76 (Original post)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 12:33 PM

63. I like this site

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

I do not believe they are as advanced as 538 but has their own way of doing things.

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Response to Mister K (Reply #63)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 01:32 PM

71. That's a frickin' landslide. haha

 

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Response to Mister K (Reply #63)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 02:43 PM

83. thanks!

 

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Response to bathroommonkey76 (Original post)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 01:02 PM

68. No it doesn't and it never has. I check it every day.

 

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Clinton has always been significantly ahead in the electoral prediction. Trump has made alarming progress to closing the gap, but it is still safely out of reach.

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Response to The Second Stone (Reply #68)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 01:06 PM

69. what the OP is referencing is fivethirtyeights prediction if the election were held TODAY...

the forcasted prediction for actual election day shows Hillary leading.

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Response to bathroommonkey76 (Original post)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 01:22 PM

70. We all better get busy and nip this NOW.

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Response to bathroommonkey76 (Original post)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 01:43 PM

72. Stop attacking the messenger and take this seriously.

Trump has a very good chance of winning. Democrats still seem to not take him very seriously. They won't believe it until Trump is elected.

As much as I can't stand Hillary, Trump would be a disaster. Democrats seem to be of a mind that Trump will never win, so they can just relax and sit this one out. Trump is going to ride that apathy to the White House.

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Response to bathroommonkey76 (Original post)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 01:45 PM

74. convention bounce is all

some people obviously respond positively to all the anger and hate

those numbers should go back down after the Dem convention and Hillary will probably pull ahead again

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Response to bathroommonkey76 (Original post)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 01:50 PM

75. The Dems need to campaign more effectively to get past the barrier of the corporate MSM. nt

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Response to bathroommonkey76 (Original post)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 02:35 PM

79. I wish I didn't see this.

Hope it's wrong.

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Response to Scorpionflyx (Reply #79)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 02:57 PM

86. Trump will win if we don't unite.

We have to work hard to GOTV for Clinton/Kaine. We cannot allow Trump to appoint judges to the SCOTUS who will set us back 50 years.

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Response to DesertRat (Reply #86)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 03:38 PM

89. You're not kidding.

Just the thought of him in office makes me sick.

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Response to bathroommonkey76 (Original post)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 02:38 PM

80. Time to get my EU passport in order before BREXIT limits me to only living in England ...

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Response to bathroommonkey76 (Original post)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 02:41 PM

81. Post Convention skew. All the media talked about was "Trump"....

Two weeks from now, it will probably be Hillary with a 15 percentage lead - because at least half of the people polled aren't really thinking about who they're actually going to be voting for, or even if they get off their duffs and vote in November. Unless those surveyed also give specifics about what is important to them and why that makes them favor one candidate or another, it's pretty much an exercise in Media push-polling, and not really informative as to how a candidate is really doing. "Who will I vote for now?" is a silly question if the so-called independent voter hasn't even made up his/her mind to get out and vote because there's too much else to think about or pay attention to right now.

Unless I was part of a campaign and looking at the questions asked and how the answers were categorized so as to tweak strategy, all these polls really mean very little until late September, and even then, polls are little more than extrapolated trends with a huge margin of error and environmental factors that can affect the results.

Haele

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Response to bathroommonkey76 (Original post)

Mon Jul 25, 2016, 03:56 PM

91. Not now

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Response to bathroommonkey76 (Original post)

Tue Jul 26, 2016, 09:17 PM

98. Amazing what a well run convention will do for you...

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