Trump, Clinton in virtual tie in Missouri

[pstokely]

Source: STL Post Dispatch

"The Post-Dispatch poll, conducted between the national political conventions July 23-24, showed a much closer contest than those done earlier this month by KSDK/Survey USA and Public Policy Polling. Both showed a 10-point Trump advantage in Missouri.

Coker’s sample was made up of 35 percent self-identified Democrats, 34 percent Republicans and 31 percent independents. Coker said independents tend to lean Republican in Missouri. Romney won 59 percent of self-identified independents in Missouri in 2012, according to exit polls for the New York Times — the largest percentage of independents won by Romney of 18 states polled."

Read more: http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/trump-clinton-in-virtual-tie-in-missouri/article_ecbca03a-ea36-5bef-bf8c-fcb817cc7c31.html

[Chemisse]

1. Hopefully the polls will look different next week

Following the Dem convention.

[exboyfil]

2. A contested Missouri is already a win

[Nictuku]

3. I have relatives in Missouri

... and it is all about the guns, from what I can tell. This will be an uphill battle.

[Ex Lurker]

5. Just making the GOP contest Missouri is a net plus. NT

[pstokely]

8. it will be close with a GOTV effort, Obama barely lost it in 08

I assume your relatives in outstate MO

[Cracklin Charlie]

14. I live in Missouri.

My husband walked away from his golf buddies last night when he couldn't listen to any more of their lies about Hillary. Apparently, the waitress from the bar followed him out, and told him those guys never stop talking about how much they hate Hillary. She complimented him for standing up, and telling them he would vote for Hillary. I think I will send some extra $ with him next week to leave for the waitress.

[4lbs]

4. It went from Trump +10 to tie within MoE in about 3 weeks.

Trump lost support in the span of several weeks, in Moderate-Right Conservative-leaning Missouri.

It showed that most of those right-leaning conservatives are trending towards Libertarian Gary Johnson. The Libertarian is hurting Trump a lot, by presenting a credible alternative to Trump to those Republicans that still can't see marking their ballots for Clinton.

Think about that.

[pstokely]

10. Dumpf barely won the MO Repuke primary against Cruz

nt

[FBaggins]

15. It's hard to say whether it shows movement or diversity of polling

The latest KSDK-TV poll overlaps the period that this poll was taken (7/20-7/24). So we can't say that we're seeing movement... but different takes on the same electorate at the same time. Could be differences in how they see the electorate, but it is slightly too large to be sampling error alone within the 95% confidence band alone.

However, those who point out that anything close to even in the state is good news. Even a 10% deficit in a state that Obama lost by 14% (while winning overall by about 4%) is good news.

[bornskeptic]

27. Obama lost MO by 9.36% in2012, not 14%.

He lost it by a miniscule 0.13% in 2008.

[roamer65]

23. We have a 3 way race going like 1992.

I think Drumpf is going to finish 3rd.

[MrModerate]

6. Missouri's a pink state on the maps . . .

If it's now faint pink . . . (a small yee-haw).

[Equinox Moon]

7. First debate: September 26th

The polls will change. She will win.

[forgotmylogin]

9. I live in St. Louis. This is also the Post Dispatch

that had the evening version of the paper out with the gigantic headline "TRIUMPHANT" on the last day of the RNC before Don had barely even finished his late-running speech, and before the general consensus was one of jaw-agape speechlessness.

[apnu]

11. Woah, hold up. Wasn't Trump +10 in MO last week??? (nt)

[riversedge]

30. The headline should be: Hillary surging in MO!!

[Loki]

12. I live here

And I can tell that this is going to be very close. We have friends who are staunch Republicans who have already stated they will be voting for Hillary Clinton. Both my husband and I are rabid progressives, and to hear this from these people, because we know them personally, is truly a sea change. Get out the Vote!!!!

[bellmartin]

13. Oh, please, please...

I so want for my state to move back to a bellwether, which it was for so long. I want to turn it blue again!

And the best part of those poll results? Look at the dates the polling was done! After the RNC convention, and before ours started!

[Grammy23]

16. Trump likes to use the word hit a lot, so we should oblige him.....

Let's hope that he gets buried in ads that compare his crazy, unhinged statements with the rational, measured comments from Hillary Clinton. It is obvious that Donald is not well....from a mental health standpoint. His remarks give him away every. Single. Time. For those inclined to vote for Trump, the amount of convincing to abandon this demagogue may need to be much more than you'd expect. Fortunately, the Clinton campaign has plenty of money to build an avalanche against Trump. With any luck at all, we will start to see the number of followers plummet after he faces a steady, unrelenting drum beat of the story this man has revealed about himself in recent months and over his whole life. The truth is there. Now spread the word.

[wcmagumba]

17. I live in...

very, very red SW MO and will GOTV as much as I can. I already have had several interactions with hard core, Hillary/Liberal/Dem hating RW coworkers, I don't argue with them but play a coy, middle ground about my vote and encourage them to vote for Johnson...I would rather hurt Trump in that way with these people who will never vote Dem.

[Fresh_Start]

19. Does that mean a good strategy for Missouri would be to send money to support Johnson?

Let him do the heavy lifting of peeling away support from Trump?

[wcmagumba]

21. Might be...

but I will primarily donate to Dems...

[apnu]

18. The article also puffs up MO's self importance. Claims MO was a "bellweather" state in 2008

But McCain won MO by a few thousand votes. So much for MO as a predictor of Presidential elections.

[molova]

20. It's not a virtual tie. It's a 1% lead

Virtual tie is not a thing. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/628950531172638721
It doesn't matter if the margin of error is higher than 1.
"Virtual tie" is a term created by pundits, not statisticians.

[Nitram]

22. That's truly amazing. Missouri is soild conservative territory.

I would never have expected Clinton do do that well there.

[TryLogic]

25. Rural Missouri and southern Missouri are very conservative, not the cities.

[pstokely]

26. dems need a good GOTV effort in the cities to win

gerrymandering has concentrated all the Dem districts in the cities giving more power the rural (and whiter) conservative areas, overall, the population of MO is older and whiter than average

[TryLogic]

24. My advice for Democrats: Label Trump as the Loose Cannon

Trump will continue to characterize Hillary as Crooked Hillary. Crooked Hillary versus the Bully or the Mean Guy is unlikely to be successful for Hillary. But, in my opinion, Crooked Hillary versus the Loose Cannon tilts the contest toward Hillary. Crooked can be debated, but every time Trump opens his mouth, most of his history, everything validates the label of Loose Cannon. And, a Loose Cannon is someone who is scary and dangerous.

[Gamecock Lefty]

28. I live in west St Louis County . . .

and to see this in today's Post-Dispatch warmed my little heart.

Hope springs eternal for MO going blue.

And you should see the governor's race up here on the Republican side. They can't pull out their guns fast enough to show you how tough they are! Such silliness.

[Moostache]

29. I live in Jefferson County, southwest of St. Louis, here in East Kansas...

The rabidly hateful bigots that populate this enclave on the outskirts of the St. Louis Metro area is truly depressing at times.

Hearing that the Talking Yam has essentially lost 10 points poll over poll is heartening. The rural areas of this state are hopeless for Democrats, I would not waste 15 seconds or $0.15 campaigning out in those regions. I remember taking my business out of an auto repair shop in the area in 2012 because of the casual tossing around of the 'n-word' to describe President Obama in the waiting lounge and the owner of the shop not giving a damn about it at all.

The urban areas in St. Louis, Kansas City and Columbia are the islands of blue in this sea of red back-ass state.

GOTV is going to be crucial everywhere, but maybe we can pull a rabbit out of the hat with exceptional GOTV in the urban centers of East Kansas...if that were to become reality, Trump will lose in a Mondale-esque landslide in the EC.

[Gore1FL]

31. MO really isn't red. We were a bellwether until 2008. A lot of statewide office holders are Dem.

Unfortunately, I suspect the GOP win s in 2008 and 2012 in the presidential contest had more to do with the race of the candidate.

[loyalsister]

34. The Gov, McCaskill, and Koster make a pretty conservative team

The House and Senate are veto proof red. We haven't been a bellweather state since 2000.

Koster was a Republican until 2007 when he wanted to run for AG and set himself up to be governor. I saw him talking awhile back about how Democrats and the GOP agree that there should be minimal regulations. I am desperately hoping he wins, though.

Something that scares me is that voters will try to use Hillary's coattails to make "feminist" history republican style and elect Catherine Hanaway as governor.

[benld74]

32. Apologies from my state

[RayOfHope]

33. I live in MO. My super republican inlaws (live near me) told me today they are voting for Hillary.