Clinton Leads Trump by 6 Points After Democratic Confab: Reuters/Ipsos Poll

[Hissyspit]

Source: Reuters

Fri Jul 29, 2016 | 6:17 PM EDT
Clinton leads Trump by 6 points after Democratic confab: Reuters/Ipsos poll

By Grant Smith | NEW YORK

(Reuters) - Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton held a 6- percentage-point lead over Republican rival Donald Trump, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll with new wording that was released on Friday, the day after she formally accepted her party's nomination for the Nov. 8 election.

Nearly 41 percent of likely voters favor Clinton, 35 percent favor Trump, and 25 percent picked "Other," according to the new July 25-29 online poll of 1,043 likely voters, which overlapped with the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia.

Read more: http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN1092M5

[left-of-center2012]

1. That can't be correct!

I saw a clip of Trump on the news last night where he said he's leading in all polls, and is even beating Clinton among African-Americans and Latinos.

[groundloop]

2. Well clearly SOMEONE is lying

Trump leading with African-American and Latino voters, now I've heard it all.

[left-of-center2012]

4. I think I heard or read ...

Seems I heard Trump got zero percent of African-American voters on a recent Pennsylvania survey.

[sofa king]

20. Indeed you did.

Zero percent in Pennsylvania AND Ohio.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/07/13/new-polls-in-pennsylvania-and-ohio-show-donald-trump-with-0-percent-of-the-black-vote/

As I pointed out, with my mastery of statistics, the margin of error may mean that it's actually a negative percentage, which breaks the time-space continuum, or something.

[thucythucy]

7. Seriously, he said that? nt

[LisaL]

15. What does Trump have to do to not get elected in this country?

As he personally admits, he could shot someone and not lose support.
The mind boggles.

[stopbush]

24. Setting arbitrary benchmarks is meaningless.

This campaign season has seen a litany of "Hillary should be" handwringing and opinion mongering.

The fact is she need win by only .1% to become president. Obama held a 2.6% lead over Romney in July 2012 and ended up winning the election by 4%, or 5-million votes. Hillary's lead is DOUBLE what Obama's lead was 4 years ago. Give it a rest.

[riversedge]

27. He has said that about Latinos several times already.

[0rganism]

37. i wonder if Manafort has to tell that to tRump just to keep his orange ass in the campaign

just a hunch, but i think if DJT got an accurate idea of the electoral pounding he's about to receive, he'd quit right now.

[uawchild]

3. The Clinton surge is starting!

Voters are starting to pay attention now, time to really put the pressure on Trump.

[safeinOhio]

5. Any polls out yet on

House and Senate?

[aeroman]

6. Here is one site

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/senate/

[TeddyR]

8. This headline seems a bit misleading to me

When you include third party candidates then the Reuters poll shows Clinton and Trump are tied at 37% apiece. Not sure why any poll wouldn't include third party candidates at this point.

[PDittie]

12. That's not the news some people want to hear

[LisaL]

13. Per the rules of this forum, original headline has to be used.

But yes, if third party candidates are included, then Clinton and Trump are evenly split.

[TeddyR]

28. Thanks for pointing that out

Forgot that was the case. Personally think we Dems just need to approach this race as if it is tied for the next 3 months so that we don't become complacent and work to get out the vote.

[Democat]

30. Not "we" but "you" are not in a happy place

You are very negative but you don't speak for all Democrats.

Most Democrats are very happy after the convention and we're fine to deal with the DNC issues after beating Trump.

The last thing the Democratic Party needs between now and the election is a bunch of resources spent on infighting.

[unitedwethrive]

33. It is those voters that we really have to work for.

[Kashkakat v.2.0]

9. NOT GOOD ENOUGH. Polls cant be within margin of "error," aka electronic election fraud

[videohead5]

10. Most of This Poll

Was taken before the convention was over.

[frazzled]

11. Only 76% are facing up to the real choice (Clinton v Trump) at this point

Jim Messina the other night, on Charlie Rose, explained that at this point in a presidential election cycle (immediate post conventions), it's almost always 45% to 45%. It's solid Democrats vs solid Republicans, with the other 10% moving one direction or another as the cycle progresses through the debates, and then the final stages.

This poll, if accurate, reflects, then, that Trump is losing the Republican base, badly. Without that strong base support, he's in big hot water. Add to this that he does not have any African American, Latino, or other minority support (and most likely not the Arab American support that GW Bush had). And he faces a huge gender gap with women. There is no way he can win this election, folks.

The vast majority of the 24% of respondents who picked "other" at this point, are wounded souls who will largely line up with one candidate or another in the end. Most Americans are realists, though admittedly a small number will go for Johnson or Stein.

[Cosmocat]

19. This election will boil down to outside factors

For the reasons you note, if nothing bizarre happens, hard to see him winning.

However, and I don't say this about her personally AND I think 90% of it has been complete bullshit.

But, Hillary is VERY brittle as a candidate due to a quarter century of almost nonstop hate fest against her.

That is why roughly four weeks ago, she has a fairly solid lead, but then Comey did his hit job on her and she (as a political figure) cratered..

The conventions reset things, and she probably will bounced back to close to where she was, and given that the other option is Donald Trump, hard to see how she won't get a least a little more of those not voting for either than Trump down the stretch.

HOWEVER, anything unusual that happens favors Trump, because this country is that stupid.

SO, anything that might once again really hit Hillary negatively will probably crater her again, any terrorist attacks will favor Trump (again, because the stupid get ramped up by fear), any significant economic down turn will favor Trump (again, because we are THAT stupid).

[frazzled]

21. Yes, the unexpected event meets stupid factor

is a heavy consideration. We, indeed, ARE that stupid.

[progressoid]

17. Sadly, NO. They're tied.

A separate Reuters/Ipsos survey that provided respondents with the option to choose from Clinton, Trump, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, has Clinton and Trump tied at 37 percentage points.

[Lucky Luciano]

22. She should win by 20 points. Too many haters in the US I guess. nt

[bucolic_frolic]

23. Marvelous Convention

Democratic stars all over the place, each with a niche message
that stated our values, linked everything together in a well-focused
message, and painted Trump for what he is.

Will those numbers change? I think most of them won't at this point.

Undecideds are cause for worry.

We have work to do, and time to do it.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

25. That's all?? We're in trouble if that's true.

[Democat]

31. The country is evenly split, no candidate is going to be up by 20

That's not going to change. Look at every election in recent memory.

Hillary is winning, Trump is the one in trouble.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

34. 20% is too much. That part is for sure.

[C Moon]

26. Only 6 points? This country is seriously effed up!

[TeddyR]

29. As others have noted

It isn't even six points, they are actually tied. This election will be the same as others over the last 20 years -- Trump is going to get 90% of the Republican vote, and Hillary 90% of the Dem vote, and turnout and independents will decide the election. Thankfully Hillary has a MUCH better ground game, but I'm concerned that independents are going to go for the "change" candidate, even though he is an idiot, racist, misogynist, etc.

[Democat]

32. 6 points is a fine lead

Look at all recent elections and see how big the spread has been.

[oberliner]

35. It actually shows them tied

When Johnson and Stein are included.