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TheBaculumKing

(102 posts)
Mon Aug 1, 2016, 01:11 PM Aug 2016

Gallup: Trump support tumbles after conventions

Source: Politico

In the wake of the Republican and Democratic national conventions, voters are more likely to support Hillary Clinton than Donald Trump, according to a Gallup poll released Monday.

While 36 percent of adults are more likely to support Trump coming out of the RNC, 51 percent are less likely to vote for the real estate mogul after the GOP’s four-day event. The -15 net rating is the worst mark for the Republican nominee coming out of the convention since Gallup began asking the question in 1984, though the 1984 and 1992 GOP conventions were excluded


The convention has also shaped the views of the Republican Party. Fifty-two percent of those surveyed said they have a less favorable view of the GOP now, while 35 percent see the party more favorably.

After the DNC, 45 percent of adults said they were more likely to back Clinton, though 41 percent said they’re now less likely to do so. While the percent of respondents more inclined to vote for Clinton coming out of the convention is on par with the past two decades for the Democratic nominee, the 41 percent who are less likely to vote for Clinton represents the highest mark since 1984.






Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/poll-clinton-trump-dnc-2016-226507

24 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Gallup: Trump support tumbles after conventions (Original Post) TheBaculumKing Aug 2016 OP
Maybe people are starting to get sick of all the hate liberal N proud Aug 2016 #1
The Way I Think of It TheBaculumKing Aug 2016 #4
Poor Louis Slotin... backscatter712 Aug 2016 #19
These recent poll numbers are going to make it much harder Friend or Foe Aug 2016 #2
at some point, they're going to have to quit with the "horse race" bullshit coverage 0rganism Aug 2016 #6
Just maybe this year will be the year... Blue Idaho Aug 2016 #12
i think this is the year 0rganism Aug 2016 #15
Yes. Trump's amateur train-wreck will become undeniable & get better ratings than a fake horse race. Bernardo de La Paz Aug 2016 #23
This is still not good news for us. 41% LESS LIKELY to support HRC? Still don't get it. Liberal_Stalwart71 Aug 2016 #3
A Standard Response by any Trumper TheBaculumKing Aug 2016 #5
I'm sure some of that is going on, too. That's another thing to be worried about. It's unacceptable Liberal_Stalwart71 Aug 2016 #9
Republican Women Will Vote for Hillary in Droves TheBaculumKing Aug 2016 #10
Or they will vote libertarian and not say anything LynneSin Aug 2016 #14
Watch the Difference in Exit Polls and Votes TheBaculumKing Aug 2016 #20
Loser Trump will foment riots and random killings by using exit polls to say the vote was rigged. nt Bernardo de La Paz Aug 2016 #24
+ 1 JoePhilly Aug 2016 #22
But along party lines it looks different ... moonscape Aug 2016 #7
tRump's antics are catching up with him meow2u3 Aug 2016 #8
Attacking the family of a fallen soldier? Dopers_Greed Aug 2016 #11
I Am NOT Making This Up TheBaculumKing Aug 2016 #13
Those a-holes should never EVER say that Democrats don't give a shit about our veterans & soldiers LynneSin Aug 2016 #16
I'm waiting for the post-Khan attack polls Tempest Aug 2016 #17
K and R.--and steady as she goes riversedge Aug 2016 #18
The data you are viewing, just like at 538, is gathered, and then jtuck004 Aug 2016 #21

TheBaculumKing

(102 posts)
4. The Way I Think of It
Mon Aug 1, 2016, 01:25 PM
Aug 2016

Trump has been "tickling the dragon's tail". During the initial development of nuclear weapons the scientists were learning about criticality by moving two subcritical masses closer together to measure changes in the radiation produced (grossly oversimplified). A couple woke the dragon up and died shortly from radiation sickness.

Trump has been gradually moving towards reaching critical mass, losing a (relative) few a couple times a week with some stupid/childish/ignorant statement or another. The kerfluffle he started with the Khans just may represent his finally getting too close.

backscatter712

(26,355 posts)
19. Poor Louis Slotin...
Mon Aug 1, 2016, 02:45 PM
Aug 2016

Slotin was the one that tickled the dragon's tail too much (put the two halves of the plutonium core too close together). Next was a blue flash, then a protracted, horrible death from radiation sickness.

Was Trump's dissing of Khizr Khan and his wife the moment when the entire nation saw Trump bathed in that Cherenkov glow? One can hope...

Friend or Foe

(195 posts)
2. These recent poll numbers are going to make it much harder
Mon Aug 1, 2016, 01:20 PM
Aug 2016

For the corporate media to keep selling their soap! Look for stories to lower Hilary's numbers to make it "appear" to be a closer race. In fact, this thing ain't even going to be close.

If college educated males are trending D and women are firmly D, and now respected Republicans are voting D, there can't be that many poorly educated to make this a close election.

0rganism

(23,955 posts)
6. at some point, they're going to have to quit with the "horse race" bullshit coverage
Mon Aug 1, 2016, 01:27 PM
Aug 2016

and get started on the REAL story that's been staring them in the face since February: the demise of the GOP as a center-right party, and the overall realignment of power politics in the USA. of course, they'll need to do real reporting, which requires actual work beyond getting a couple of diametrically opposed pundits to spout talking points on TV, but i'm confident the 24/7 news networks can find qualified people with journalism degrees capable of doing the heavy lifting.

Blue Idaho

(5,049 posts)
12. Just maybe this year will be the year...
Mon Aug 1, 2016, 01:49 PM
Aug 2016

The horse race bullshit sells a lot of soap but this year - the media runs the risk of beng held responsible for all the racist, sexist, billionaire bullshit flowing from Donald Trump's mouth. If they turn a blind eye to his hatred, they should be held accountable.

I think we can help here... It's time to demand the M$M stop pretending this traitor as a "normal" political candidate. It's time they started reporting his many forms of hatred and his ties to Russia like it's real news - because it is.

It's also time we put some heat on advertisers. If the "soap sellers" of the world understand that their livelihood is tied up in the M$M's pandering to Trump - they may start pulling ads. Just another way to focus the M$M's attention on the problem at hand.

Trumps hate speech is not protected as free speech - it's time to make it clear that hate speech is not free speech and free speech is not hate speech.

0rganism

(23,955 posts)
15. i think this is the year
Mon Aug 1, 2016, 02:08 PM
Aug 2016

even the talking head anchors on CNN and MSNBC are starting to shake their heads at the hate spewing from Annoying Orange's piehole, and becoming less and less tolerant of the shaky shit provided as cover by his apologists. horse race coverage demands a facade of equivalency, usually false, to establish a "level track" on which the political atmosphere of our nation can be discounted to a simple betting proposition among relatively similar competitors. tRump has destroyed all that -- they can't play any of tRump's original material while maintaining the illusion of equivalency.

the realignment is well underway, and barring the most unpleasant variety of October Surprise, will continue on into a historic November landslide. media sources that miss this obviousness while still propping their horse race stories will lose all (remaining) credibility.

 

Liberal_Stalwart71

(20,450 posts)
9. I'm sure some of that is going on, too. That's another thing to be worried about. It's unacceptable
Mon Aug 1, 2016, 01:35 PM
Aug 2016

to publicly admit support for Trump. But what happens when one gets behind the voting booth.

Geez!

TheBaculumKing

(102 posts)
10. Republican Women Will Vote for Hillary in Droves
Mon Aug 1, 2016, 01:45 PM
Aug 2016

They'll keep the peace at home by not denouncing Trump, but in the privacy of the booth they'll break big for Hillary.

TheBaculumKing

(102 posts)
20. Watch the Difference in Exit Polls and Votes
Mon Aug 1, 2016, 02:47 PM
Aug 2016

I will be AMAZED if any Trump voter tells the pollsters they voted for Hillary, but lots will vote for Hillary while still claiming publicly they backed Trump.

meow2u3

(24,764 posts)
8. tRump's antics are catching up with him
Mon Aug 1, 2016, 01:32 PM
Aug 2016

With his attacks on Gold Star families, he's gone too far even as far as saner Republicans are concerned. Only Trumpanzees are supporting him now.

Dopers_Greed

(2,640 posts)
11. Attacking the family of a fallen soldier?
Mon Aug 1, 2016, 01:46 PM
Aug 2016

The Spray-Tanned Shitbag is dead in the water.

This is his "47 percent" moment.

LynneSin

(95,337 posts)
16. Those a-holes should never EVER say that Democrats don't give a shit about our veterans & soldiers
Mon Aug 1, 2016, 02:09 PM
Aug 2016

The smartest thing Trump could have done is just ignore the Khans and that whole speech would have been forgotten quickly by the news outlets.

Tempest

(14,591 posts)
17. I'm waiting for the post-Khan attack polls
Mon Aug 1, 2016, 02:14 PM
Aug 2016

I'm betting Drumpf will sink like a stone since he's alienating Muslims, veterans and independents with the attacks from him and his surrogates.

 

jtuck004

(15,882 posts)
21. The data you are viewing, just like at 538, is gathered, and then
Mon Aug 1, 2016, 03:42 PM
Aug 2016

arranged to remove portions representing people who can't vote but answered, and then they apparently winnow out people who are registered but didn't vote recently.

Trump is not going after the likely voters like most folks. His folks are tens of millions of dissatisfied people, many who haven't voted in a while, and are definitely not likely voters. If I am understanding what is written about the data use at these sites, those types of voters are either absent or underrepresented in this data.

"Of course, we know that in the final analysis, not all of these registered voters will actually end up voting. So Gallup has over the years created systems to isolate likely voters, that group of individuals who we can estimate are most likely to actually turn out and vote."


http://www.gallup.com/poll/110272/Registered-Voters-vs-Likely-Voters.aspx

Fivethirtyeight wrote that they do the same thing.

The polls may simply miss them.

Will his strategy work? 75% of registered voters are white, so if you ignore that you do so at your peril. Beyond AA and others, O picked up a bunch of the white vote in 2008, but it slipped in 2012. If it does that again, and disaffected, registered non-voters show up...

The first article I have seen that laid out a potential winning path. If he can get his folks fired up to coincide with the election, along with all the other efforts, the country could become a scarier place soon.

http://www.truth-out.org/opinion/item/37005-trump-s-nonvoter-strategy-will-it-work


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