Election Update: Trump May Depress Republican Turnout, Spelling Disaster For The GOP

[Retired George]

Last edited Sun Oct 23, 2016, 04:25 PM - Edit history (1)

Source: 538.com

By Nate Silver

Instead of a poll, let’s start today’s Election Update with some actual votes. According to the esteemable Nevada journalist Jon Ralston, Democrats have a 26-percentage-point turnout edge so far based on early and absentee voting in Clark County (home to Las Vegas), Nevada. And they have a 10-point edge in Washoe County (home to Reno).

Nevada is one of a number of states where Democrats usually do better in early voting than in the vote overall, so this shouldn’t be taken to mean that Hillary Clinton and the Democratic U.S. Senate candidate in Nevada, Catherine Cortez Masto, are going to win their races by double digits. But Nevada is an interesting state, insofar as both Clinton and Donald Trump can find things to like about its demographic makeup: In Clinton’s case, the growing number of Hispanic and Asian-American voters bodes well for her; in Trump’s case, there’s the fact that only about one-third of Nevada’s white voters have college degrees, according to FiveThirtyEight’s estimates. Furthermore, Nevada has shown tight polling all year, with Clinton having only pulled ahead since the debates — surprising given that President Obama won Nevada by 7 percentage points in 2012 and that Clinton is beating Obama’s numbers in other Western states.

Those early-voting numbers, though, don’t look good for Trump. Democrats are matching their 2012 pace in Clark County, according to Ralston. And they’re beating it in Washoe County, a place where the demographics ought to be relatively Trump-friendly. If Clinton’s pulling in her marginal voters and Trump isn’t getting his, that’s how things could go from bad to worse for the GOP.

...

The problem for Trump is that taken as a whole, his polls aren’t very good — and, in fact, they may still be getting worse. An ABC News national poll released on Sunday morning — the first live-caller poll conducted fully after the final presidential debate — showed Clinton leading Trump 50 percent to 38 percent. Clinton’s 12-point lead in that poll is toward the high end of a broad range of results from recent national polls, with surveys showing everything from a 15-point Clinton lead to a 2-point Trump edge. But the ABC News poll is interesting given its recency and given why Clinton has pulled so far ahead in it — Republicans aren’t very happy with their candidate and may not turn out to vote:

Read more: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-trump-may-depress-republican-turnout-spelling-disaster-for-the-gop/

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Juicy flight? Lock the doors!

[NewJeffCT]

1. that's what I'm hoping for

he'll not only be a loser at the top of the ticket, but he'll spread the losing bigly to the rest of the GOP.

[bucolic_frolic]

2. TRUMP ALONE CAN FIX IT

TIC TAC PUSSY MONSTER

Your GOP voters are waiting!!

[4 more years]

3. Republicans have seen the light.

Why would anybody waste their time and gas voting for this moron ????

[johnnyrocket]

13. Demoralized and embarrassed....I like it!

[chillfactor]

4. I worked in a NM election voting site yesterday....

I checked in voters....10 Democrats to 1 rethug came in to vote. We had more voters in the first day of early voting then we normally have in the whole two weeks of early voting....enthusiasm was very apparent. Democrats came in with smiles....rethugs very subdued and with sullen faces.

[PearliePoo2]

9. Democrats voting 10 to 1 over Repubs? Holy shit Sherlock!

I love hearing first person stories like this! The turnout and enthusiasm..wow!

But I do have a question please: So in NM, you have to register with a party affiliation? I'm unfamiliar with this because I live in Washington State and I'm not required to tell anyone if I'm a Democrat or Rethug.

[AmericanActivist]

20. That is right. In NM you declare a party. We lived there 10 years. nm

[moonscape]

5. Don't remember who it was remarking on this, but

they made the excellent point that all this 'rigged' talk is crazy strategy because it serves to depress the Republican vote. If it's all rigged, why bother?

But then, that assumes Trump has any interest in actually turning out the vote vs attending to his own ego.

[DeminPennswoods]

6. Add in the weather on election day

In my part of western Pennsylvania, Accuweather's long range forecast for election day is for rain/snow showers. I'll definitely be there when the poll opens, but some of my Republican neighbors might not bother showing up if it's cold/rainy/snowy outside.

[Earth_First]

7. They've got time. They dont vote until the 28th... nt

[Botany]

8. Election Update: Trump May Depress Republican Turnout, Spelling Disaster For The GOP

And then with democratic leadership stuff will get done, people will be happy,
and then we will have the "California model" and republicans will be out of
power for a long long time. Oklahoma, Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming will be their
own little nations.


Election Update: Trump May Depress Republican Turnout, Spelling Disaster For The GOP



Election Update: Trump May Depress Republican Turnout, Spelling Disaster For The GOP



Election Update: Trump May Depress Republican Turnout, Spelling Disaster For The GOP



Election Update: Trump May Depress Republican Turnout, Spelling Disaster For The GOP



Election Update: Trump May Depress Republican Turnout, Spelling Disaster For The GOP



Election Update: Trump May Depress Republican Turnout, Spelling Disaster For The GOP

[cynzke]

10. The BIGLYEST THANK YOU Democrats could give President Obama is....

To turn out....make this the biggest Democratic turn out since Obama was elected. Go out and say THANK YOU with your vote for Hillary.

[Skittles]

11. ...

[cynzke]

12. WHY DOES "READ MORE" LINK OPEN TO MY PERSONAL EMAIL ACCOUNT?

[herding cats]

14. The OP accidentally put the link to their Google Mail as the 538 link.

Which defaults to your google account when you click it.

Here's the link for the article: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-trump-may-depress-republican-turnout-spelling-disaster-for-the-gop/

[Retired George]

21. Thank you for Pointing that Out

And if anybody got my inbox after clicking the link, I just want to assure you that LesbianCatholicSchoolgirls is just a website I accidentally landed on. 379 times.

[herding cats]

22. Lol!

That one made me laugh!

It's all good, Google won't let us in to poke through your life without a user and a password. It defaults to our own if we're logged in, or the login screen if we're not.

[cynzke]

23. LCS would have been less shocking...

Than opening the link was and seeing my own gmail!

[cynzke]

24. Thanks!

My first response was.... ! Followed by

[herding cats]

15. Here's the correct link.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-trump-may-depress-republican-turnout-spelling-disaster-for-the-gop/

[C Moon]

16. Just saw someone on FB saying Hillary's election will split the nation for years to come.

These Trump supporters need to look outside of the bubble they built around themselves.

[Canoe52]

17. My own study...

Which is only worth 2 cents

But I just heard that my daughter in law, a hard core repub, has reexamined how her values don't match up to her party and has switched to the Democratic Party.

My mother ( who thinks Obama is a secret Mooslum) can't stand tRump and is not voting at all.

AND best of all... my cell phone in the sentence above JUST AUTOCORRECTED "trump" to "tRump" !!!

[bulloney]

18. Who in the world has Trump leading by 2 points? His internal family poll?

I would love to see a comparison of the questions, survey participants and methodology to see how you can have a 17-point difference among polls, from a Clinton landslide to a slight lead for Trump.

[louis-t]

19. Even so, the propaganda is out there.

"Trump way ahead", etc. They are setting up for "Hillary cheated".