Hillary Clinton is matching Barack Obama with young voters

[Rose Siding]

Source: Vox

...Clinton is now projected to get exactly the same youth vote share as Obama did in 2012 (60 percent), according to a massive new study released Monday by the Black Youth Project at the University of Chicago, as part of its GenForward survey series. It’s a stunning turnaround for a campaign that has faced months of fierce criticism and second-guessing over its apparent inability to shore up its millennial support.

“Over time, young voters have really come to think that Gary Johnson doesn’t represent their interests, that [Green Party candidate] Jill Stein is not going to win, and that the stakes are very high in this election,” says Cathy Cohen, a political scientist at the University of Chicago and the study’s lead author, in an interview. “And while they still don’t have great love for Clinton, it looks like they’ve decided to vote for her.”

The race has since widened considerably — Clinton is now out to a 45-to-39 lead in the RealClearPolitics polling average. So it’s not surprising that she’s improved her numbers with young voters as part of that bigger shift.

Still, there’s very strong evidence that her support with millennials has increased at a much faster clip than it has with the rest of the voting public — particularly in the wake of the presidential debates.

Read more: http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/10/25/13382964/hillary-clinton-millennial

[Drunken Irishman]

1. This isn't a surprise - it's whether the young voters actually get out and vote.

In 2012, 18-29 voters made up 19% of the voting electorate. That was actually an increase of one-percent from 2008 and a big reason why Obama won reelection. In 2004, though, they only made up 17% of the vote - with Kerry winning only 54-45 among those voters (much smaller).

If 18-29 year olds make up 18-19% of the voting electorate, she's in good position to win.

[StevieM]

3. I seem to remember that Kerry did extremely well among voters who were 18-24.

In other words, the GOP problem in 2004 was exceptionally bad among the voters under 25.

Four years later, Obama did very well among voters under 30.

In this election, Trump is absolutely hated by voters under 35.

Let's fast forward 12 years to the 2028 election. I expect that at that point the GOP will be in very bad shape with all voters under 50. I don't see how they can ever win under those circumstances, unless they somehow change the voters' minds about a whole host of issues, on economic, foreign and social policy. And I cannot see them being able to do that.

[StevieM]

4. Here is the exit poll that shows what I was referring to about 18-24 vs. 25-29 in the 2004 election.

Last edited Tue Oct 25, 2016, 04:10 PM - Edit history (1)

Kerry won 56-43 among 18-24 year olds but only 51-48 among 25-29 year olds. So he did 15 1/2 points better than his national average among voters under 25. But only 5 1/2 points better among voters over 25 but under 30.

http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-2004/