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DonViejo

(60,536 posts)
Wed Oct 26, 2016, 04:39 PM Oct 2016

Oversampling? Trump making same wrong claim about polls that conservatives used in 2012

Source: MCCLATCHY WASHINGTON BUREAU

WASHINGTON — Donald Trump is making the same mistake as President Mitt Romney.

He insists that public polls showing him trailing Hillary Clinton are biased results because they "oversample" Democrats. But that's exactly the same argument that a lot of conservatives used in 2012, wrongly convincing themselves that Romney would win easily and waking up shocked to find they were wrong and the polls were right.

The problem is, they claim something about the way polls are conducted that simply isn't true. That isn't stopping Trump from railing against "oversampling."

"When the polls are even, when they leave them alone and do them properly, I'm leading," he said. "But you see these polls where they're polling Democrats. How's Trump doing? Oh, he's down. They're polling Democrats. The system is corrupt and it's rigged and it's broken."

Other conservatives were also solidly convinced in 2012 that pollsters' "oversampling" of Democrats was hiding the truth that Republican presidential nominee Romney was leading incumbent President Barack Obama — by a lot.

-snip-

Read more: http://www.rawstory.com/2016/10/oversampling-trump-making-same-wrong-claim-about-polls-that-conservatives-used-in-2012/

8 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Oversampling? Trump making same wrong claim about polls that conservatives used in 2012 (Original Post) DonViejo Oct 2016 OP
Trump is one of the last people rock Oct 2016 #1
Reality has a well known liberal bias IronLionZion Oct 2016 #2
Unskew! DrToast Oct 2016 #3
Ditto. + 100, Doc. nt. Mc Mike Oct 2016 #6
They're going to be very, very disappointed. NurseJackie Oct 2016 #4
Nah, admitting you were wrong is so Romney. DrToast Oct 2016 #5
Well, they are working behind the scenes to do as much election fraud as they can get away with LiberalLovinLug Oct 2016 #7
Donald Trump's favorite pollsters. A closer look at the three tracking polls Trump loves the most. pampango Oct 2016 #8

rock

(13,218 posts)
1. Trump is one of the last people
Wed Oct 26, 2016, 04:48 PM
Oct 2016

I would take math advice from. Particularly statistical advice.

IronLionZion

(51,198 posts)
2. Reality has a well known liberal bias
Wed Oct 26, 2016, 04:55 PM
Oct 2016

and they should disqualify all voters who are biased against Trump


but seriously, if he claims this election is rigged, then let's have a comprehensive audit of local precincts to make sure no one was unfairly denied the right to vote just because of superficial nonsense like race or having the same name as a suspected Democrat or some such nonsense. Since elections are run at the local level.

I bet many precincts would love to be audited to prove they didn't disenfranchise their minority voters.

LiberalLovinLug

(14,674 posts)
7. Well, they are working behind the scenes to do as much election fraud as they can get away with
Thu Oct 27, 2016, 04:40 AM
Oct 2016

Both legal and illegal.
And if by chance all their hard work actually pays off,
They can counter any suspicions based on polling data by claiming they, and all their own inside polling, were right all along.
Not to mention how they will howl on Fox News about how NOW the liberals are complaining about a "fixed" election.


Someone has to do the worrying

pampango

(24,692 posts)
8. Donald Trump's favorite pollsters. A closer look at the three tracking polls Trump loves the most.
Thu Oct 27, 2016, 05:12 AM
Oct 2016

While the bulk of other polling shows Clinton building a significant advantage, the three polls reflect a vastly different race — one where Trump is frequently ahead. A joint project between the University of Southern California and the Los Angeles Times reports Trump is in the lead by a single percentage point. Rasmussen Reports, which had Trump leading by 2 points as recently as two weeks ago, now has Clinton 1 point ahead, 44 percent to 43 percent. The polling partnership between Investor’s Business Daily and the polling company Technometrica also finds a neck-and-neck race — the latest results released Wednesday put Clinton in the lead by 0.6 points.

The three polls are more obscure and, at the same time, more prolific than the major national surveys that dominate news coverage of the campaign and are often conducted by the nation’s most prominent news organizations. And their divergent results have put their unique methods under serious scrutiny.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/donald-trump-tracking-polls-230293

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