Oversampling? Trump making same wrong claim about polls that conservatives used in 2012
Source: MCCLATCHY WASHINGTON BUREAU
WASHINGTON Donald Trump is making the same mistake as President Mitt Romney.
He insists that public polls showing him trailing Hillary Clinton are biased results because they "oversample" Democrats. But that's exactly the same argument that a lot of conservatives used in 2012, wrongly convincing themselves that Romney would win easily and waking up shocked to find they were wrong and the polls were right.
The problem is, they claim something about the way polls are conducted that simply isn't true. That isn't stopping Trump from railing against "oversampling."
"When the polls are even, when they leave them alone and do them properly, I'm leading," he said. "But you see these polls where they're polling Democrats. How's Trump doing? Oh, he's down. They're polling Democrats. The system is corrupt and it's rigged and it's broken."
Other conservatives were also solidly convinced in 2012 that pollsters' "oversampling" of Democrats was hiding the truth that Republican presidential nominee Romney was leading incumbent President Barack Obama by a lot.
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Read more: http://www.rawstory.com/2016/10/oversampling-trump-making-same-wrong-claim-about-polls-that-conservatives-used-in-2012/
rock
(13,218 posts)I would take math advice from. Particularly statistical advice.
IronLionZion
(51,198 posts)and they should disqualify all voters who are biased against Trump
but seriously, if he claims this election is rigged, then let's have a comprehensive audit of local precincts to make sure no one was unfairly denied the right to vote just because of superficial nonsense like race or having the same name as a suspected Democrat or some such nonsense. Since elections are run at the local level.
I bet many precincts would love to be audited to prove they didn't disenfranchise their minority voters.
DrToast
(6,414 posts)2012 buzzword.
Mc Mike
(9,260 posts)NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)
DrToast
(6,414 posts)Trump will just say it was rigged!
LiberalLovinLug
(14,674 posts)Both legal and illegal.
And if by chance all their hard work actually pays off,
They can counter any suspicions based on polling data by claiming they, and all their own inside polling, were right all along.
Not to mention how they will howl on Fox News about how NOW the liberals are complaining about a "fixed" election.
Someone has to do the worrying
pampango
(24,692 posts)While the bulk of other polling shows Clinton building a significant advantage, the three polls reflect a vastly different race one where Trump is frequently ahead. A joint project between the University of Southern California and the Los Angeles Times reports Trump is in the lead by a single percentage point. Rasmussen Reports, which had Trump leading by 2 points as recently as two weeks ago, now has Clinton 1 point ahead, 44 percent to 43 percent. The polling partnership between Investors Business Daily and the polling company Technometrica also finds a neck-and-neck race the latest results released Wednesday put Clinton in the lead by 0.6 points.
The three polls are more obscure and, at the same time, more prolific than the major national surveys that dominate news coverage of the campaign and are often conducted by the nations most prominent news organizations. And their divergent results have put their unique methods under serious scrutiny.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/donald-trump-tracking-polls-230293