Poll: 'Shy Trump' voters are a mirage

[uawchild]

Source: Politico

Donald Trump has insisted for months that polls are failing to capture the breadth of his support because some of his backers won’t admit it to a pollster over the telephone.
He’s wrong.
Story Continued Below

According to a new study commissioned by POLITICO and conducted this past weekend by Morning Consult, a hidden army of Trump voters that's undetected by the polls is unlikely to materialize on Election Day.

The study — which was comprised of interviews with likely voters conducted over the phone with a live interviewer, and other interviews conducted online without a personal interaction — showed only a slight, not-statistically-significant difference in their effect on voters’ preferences for president.

That’s despite an emerging disparity in the public polling: Clinton leads Trump by 4 percentage points in national, live-interview phone polls, according to HuffPost Pollster’s average as of Wednesday night — but only by 2.6 points in online and automated phone polls.



Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/poll-shy-voters-trump-230667

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Note: I am typing the word "poll" into google (set on the NEWS category) and posting new polls that have not yet been posted to Late Breaking News.

Nothing is being "cherry picked", so if any poll results are unsettling please don't shoot the messenger. Yesterday I was the victim of a semi-witchhunt for doing this.

Why do this? First, because it IS late breaking news. Second, to fight any complacency if polls actually ARE tightening. Third, as a protest against those that would try to censor or intimidate people into not posting topics that they just don't like. This IS Democratic Underground, posting from reputable sources should not be censored. Thank you.

[ck4829]

1. They're loud and "politically incorrect", but suddenly demure when polled?

Yeah, sure, Donny Doom.

[IronLionZion]

3. Just 5 days until we can squash this nonsense

that Trumpers are so secretive and shy so Democrats must be undocumented immigrants and dead people

we'll see on Tuesday

[uawchild]

4. WHERE are my detractors on THIS post? lol

I got crap on the other two poll posts already because they showed the race tightening, the same accusations against me as yesterday, that I am cherry picking bad polls for Hillary for nefarious reasons.

I am merely posting ALL the polls that turn up when I search on the word "poll" in goggle that have not already been posted.

Where's the witch hunt for THIS post? lol

Seriously, the bullying, attempts at censoring and general rudeness that I have received for doing this has been dismaying.

[Jerry442]

5. Then there are the women who say "Trump" to keep redneck hubby quiet...

...but then get into the privacy of the voting booth and vote Hillary.

Probably not statistically significant, but you never know.

[Ligyron]

7. I think you are right about women married to Trump enthusiasts.

We'll find out on the 9th if we're right about that.

I really, really hope it's not even close because if it is...

Well, you know what will happen.

[Tarc]

6. Do pollsters even call cellphones?

Isn't this the same thing we get into every election cycle, where the race looks much closer than it is because old, white people who answer landlines are over-represented?

Even if the "shy Trump" voter existed, their numbers would be dwarfed by this.

[uawchild]

9. Exactly

All polls need to be taken with a grain of salt, its not only WHO they call, but what likely voter model they choose to massage the data with.

I remember how shocked I was when I first found out that virtually all polls don't report raw data, but run their results thru a filter based on who THEY think will actually turn up to vote.

Doing that, you can pretty much get any type of result you want to drive your narrative in the media.

[Jamaal510]

14. I have pollsters

dial me on my cellphone once about every 2-3 weeks, but sometimes I'm busy doing other things or simply just don't feel like taking their opinion surveys.

[bulloney]

8. Shy? Around here supporters will have 4-10 Trump signs on their front yards.

They're in your face about how he's the candidate who will make 'Murka great again. Some have Trump campaign flags flying in front of their homes and on their pickup trucks.

I've never seen anything like it. They just put their stupidity, ignorance and lack of logic out there for everyone to see.

Shy? I call bullshit!

[rustbeltvoice]

20. Yes, here in Ohio,

and hyuuge signs on lawns are not infrequent. Yes, about the flags, i don't remember seeing candidate flags on tall flagpoles ever before; occasionally, there were party flags about the door or porch.

[bulloney]

23. That's where I'm from - NW Ohio.

You can't spit in any direction without it hitting a Trump/Pence sign.

[Native]

11. That's an oxymoron if I ever heard one! Shy Trump Supporters - what a hoot!

[uawchild]

17. Good catch! lol

[MADem]

12. No, no, no -- they're OUT THERE!!! REALLY!!!!

Problem is, they're all at keyboards at troll farms in Russia!!!!

[dalton99]

15. Yep.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

16. Quick question

Most Trumpsters seem actually pretty vocal with their support. If other (supposedly anonymous) people are too embarrassed to tell pollsters that they're voting Trump, then what the hell are they doing voting for him (presumably)?

[NewJeffCT]

18. actually, Trump typically underperformed polls

during the primary process, according to actual statistical analysis. I assume it's at least partly because of his lack of a ground game.

I think the difference will be even greater in the GE because HRC has a much better ground game than Cruz, Kasich, Rubio, Bush, etc.

[Coventina]

19. I think that there are "shy" Clinton voters, particularly men.

But, we'll see in just a few days....

[0rganism]

21. agreed - i'm thinking there's a large contingent of "shy" Clinton voters

suspect there are a fair number of divided GOP households where one of the adults is going to vote against Trumplestiltskin but the other is all-in for him and maybe a bit dangerous. the Clinton voter under these conditions may be deterred from answering a live telephone poll, but once alone in a voting booth may still swing his/her vote.

[bulloney]

25. I think you're more likely to see a shy Clinton voter than a shy Trump voter.

If you give even a whiff of support for Clinton, you are regarded as something stupid.

[uawchild]

24. Speaking of melodramatic penchants...

Hiya, Lanternwaste. lol

Are you up to speed on the nuance and context of the current witch hunt?

Long story short, typing the word "poll" into google and posting polls in the NEWS results that have not already been posted to LBN has upset several people to the point of accussing me of nefarious intentions. The fact that they can simply type "poll" into google and see this for themselves has escaped some people. Shrug.

Thanks for joining in with disparaging personal comments about me. lol

Sorry that I might not be able to respond to all the threads you have done that on this morning, I am at work. SO, please, just consider yourself chastised, finger wagged, and tsk tsk-ed for doing that.

Cheers.

[mondonhill]

26. the opposite

I believe it is more likely that people are hidden Hillary voters. Especially where I live in a rural area. I deal with people sneering me when I say who I voted for. My county is littered with Trump paraphernalia and full of conspiracy theorist. Trump supporters are people who think strippers really like them! Trump has coined the phrase Crooked Hillary so much that it seeps into their minds. As dumb as we think he is , his nicknames for opponents are a purposeful marketing strategy. I just wished she would have started calling him Whacky Donald from the start so the same would be true for him.

[stone space]

28. I'll just paste my last comment here.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=2577983

How could there be hidden Trump supporters? That's an oxymoron.

Trumpism is all about OPEN displays of and OPEN support for racism, xenophobia, misogyny, islamophobia, sexual assault, child rape, and guns.

If it's not in your face, it's not Trumpism.

[ThoughtCriminal]

29. I think there is a category of voters

who will only vote for Trump if they think there is little chance that he will carry their state.

In reality, they know Trump would be a disaster, but want to cast an anti-Clinton vote if it won't really affect the outcome.

How many? Any? No idea.