CBO: Federal deficit to rise in 2019 for first time in decade

[Jose Garcia]

Source: The Hill

Federal deficits are expected to rise for the first time in nearly a decade, driving up the federal debt to almost unprecedented levels, according to analysis from the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office.

The federal budget deficit, the difference between government spending and revenue, increased in 2016 for the first time since 2009.

While the 2017 and 2018 deficits are projected to be lower due to the timing of certain payments, the difference is projected to rise from 2019 onward thanks to rising Social Security and Medicaid costs, according to CBO’s yearly budget and economic outlook for 2017 through 2027.

The economy is also expected to grow at an average of 2.1 percent of GDP, likely driven by consumer spending, business investment, and residential construction. The steady growth is expected to shrink a gap between actual and potential unemployment, leading to wage increases and moderate inflation.

Read more: http://www.thehill.com/policy/finance/315823-cbo-federal-deficits-to-rise-in-2019-for-first-time-in-decade

[yallerdawg]

1. The largest employer in the US...

now has a hiring freeze in place.

That is going to trigger net loss in employment.

Talk about shooting yourself in the foot. Public service sector losses plagued the Obama administration for years!

[titaniumsalute]

8. Nah

All of those jobs will be given to private contractors at double the pay. You know...so that way his cronies get the contracts.

[MurrayDelph]

2. But Republicans will tell you deficits don't matter

until a Democrat is in charge.

And then it's the most-important thing.

[DK504]

3. Color me shocked.

[OriginalGeek]

4. OK, stupid question time:

Federal Deficit vs National Debt

Are they different things? I had been operating under the impression that Obama reduced the national debt over his time in office but a right-wing acquaintance says it went up by many millions of dollars and that was what he was most upset about with the Obama administration (I don't believe that part by the way - he spent the last 8 years worried all his guns would get confiscated and that he would have to help feed poor people but that's another post.)

It's OK if you laugh at me for not knowing this. I probably deserve it. But if you laugh, please help me understand correctly too.

[mac56]

5. Don't feel dumb. I had to look it up myself.

A budget deficit is the difference between what the federal government spends (called outlays) and what it takes in (called revenue or receipts).

The national debt, also known as the public debt, is the result of the federal government borrowing money to cover years and years of budget deficits.

[metalbot]

6. It's a different thing that you are measuring

The deficit is the difference between what the government spends and what the government takes in as tax revenue in a given year. So spend $100 but only take in $80 in taxes means running at a $20 deficit. So where do you get the $20 that you need to spend? You borrow it. The money that you borrow is the national debt. You can think of the debt as the sum of all deficits minus what we've paid back.

Edit: too slow and missed a cross post!

[geek tragedy]

7. The deficit is what creates the debt, think of the deficit being like "annual borrowing"

Debt =cumulative sum of deficits minus cumulative sum of surpluses and minus retired debt, to put it extremely simplistically

[titaniumsalute]

9. Deficit is the gap....debt is total what we are in the hole for.

[Cosmocat]

10. Debt v deficit

the "deficit" is the difference in any single budget year between the revenue and expenses.

The "debt" is what the cumulative amount of money the country has borrowed in some form or fashion over the years to cover annual deficits.

Rs as usual, are being the dishonest fuckbags they are over BHO and debt and deficit.

He literally came into office as the worst recession since the great depression hit. This caused tax revenue to be much lower than budgeted and is the primary reason his deficits and the debit were higher.

When Bush II took over he had a smaller economic downturn, but they blew the budget up with their idiotic tax cuts, but blamed his deficits and increase on the debt on the recession.

Assholes ...

Just assholes.

[OnlinePoker]

11. Total debt nearly doubled during Obama's administration.

The first year alone by $1.7 Trillion due to the mess he was left by Bush. Total debt during his administration went from $10.625 Trillion the day he took office to $19.947 Trillion the day he left.

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/debt/search?startMonth=01&startDay=21&startYear=2009&endMonth=01&endDay=20&endYear=2017

[louis-t]

14. When speaking to repugs, I always call them

"the bush deficits". Because it's true.

[OnlinePoker]

12. Kind of an odd title

It says deficit will rise for first time in a decade in 2019 but the second paragraph says it increased in 2016 for the first time since 2009.

[JayhawkSD]

13. I don't happen to think that deficits matter

But truth does. "Deficits expected to rise in 2019 for the first time in nearly a decade" they say?

The federal Treasury Department says otherwise. At their site here they list the precise amount of the federal debt. Again, I don't care about, am not worried about the amount of that debt. I just don't like falsehoods.

In fact the deficit increased by $868 billion in fy 2009, increased by $47 billion in fy 2012, increased by $424 billion in fy 2014 and increased by $1.096 trillion in the fiscal year just ended, 2016. Each of those amounts are not the amount of the deficit for the year, they are the amount that the deficit for that year increased over the previous year.

To avoid being flamed as some sort of rabid right wing idiot, I have no objection to deficit spending. I just think that it is important that we not pretend that we are not doing it.

[jmowreader]

17. There's a very simple reason the deficit exploded in FY 2009

Bush was running his wars off-budget. In essence, he was running two sets of books: one for the auditors and one for himself. (In case you're wondering: yes, thousands of people in the private sector have gone to prison for doing this exact thing. When a Republican tells you he wants the government to run like a business, keep in mind that if they DID run the government like a business, the entire Shrub Bush administration would be in the federal pen until 2030.)

Obama's first act as President was to put the wars back on-budget. This caused the deficit to skyrocket and every right-wing pundit to scream about how terrible Obama was at managing money.

[BumRushDaShow]

18. Here is an article that describes what you wrote

Obama Bans Gimmicks, and Deficit Will Rise

By JACKIE CALMES
FEB. 19, 2009

WASHINGTON — For his first annual budget next week, President Obama has banned four accounting gimmicks that President George W. Bush used to make deficit projections look smaller. The price of more honest bookkeeping: A budget that is $2.7 trillion deeper in the red over the next decade than it would otherwise appear, according to administration officials. The new accounting involves spending on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, Medicare reimbursements to physicians and the cost of disaster responses. But the biggest adjustment will deal with revenues from the alternative minimum tax, a parallel tax system enacted in 1969 to prevent the wealthy from using tax shelters to avoid paying any income tax.

Even with bigger deficit projections, the Obama administration will put the country on “a sustainable fiscal course” by the end of Mr. Obama’s term, Peter R. Orszag, the director of the Office of Management and Budget, said Thursday in an interview. Mr. Orszag did not provide details of how the administration would reduce a deficit expected to reach at least $1.5 trillion this year.

Mr. Obama’s banishment of the gimmicks, which have been widely criticized, is in keeping with his promise to run a more transparent government. Fiscal sleight of hand has long been a staple of federal budgets, giving rise to phrases like “rosy scenario” and “magic asterisks.”The $2.7 trillion in additional deficit spending, Mr. Orszag said, is “a huge amount of money that would just be kind of a magic asterisk in previous budgets.”“The president prefers to tell the truth,” he said, “rather than make the numbers look better by pretending.”

<...>

As for war costs, Mr. Bush included little or none in his annual military budgets, instead routinely asking Congress for supplemental appropriations during the year. Mr. Obama will include cost projections for every year through the 2019 fiscal year to cover “overseas military contingencies” — nearly $500 billion over 10 years.

<...>

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/20/us/politics/20budget.html

[JayhawkSD]

20. Actually, your case does not hold up.

The numbers are based on the net change to the national debt after the fact, so they reflect spending deficit, not budget deficit. Whether the war spending was on budget or off budget does not affect its effect on the debt; it adds to the debt either way and is therefor deficit spending regardless.

Again, I don't really care, but we really have to stop burying our heads in the sand and denying facts.

[JayhawkSD]

19. I will repeat --- I DON'T CARE

Don't break out in a rash of excuses for why it was okay, or it wasn't Obama's fault. I was not criticizing Obama or anyone else. I was responding to a statement made in the article that the deficit had not risen in a decade. It has, four times.

Every drunk in the world thinks that he is not driving drunk, and because he does not acknowledge what he is doing often kills people.

Bad analogy, because driving drunk is obviously bad and deficit spending is not obviously so, but it is stupid to claim we are not doing something when we actually are doing it.

I do not care that the deficit increased or why it increased, so save all of your blame games for some other poster. Not me. I DON'T CARE. I was merely correcting a misstatement.

[wishstar]

15. This is not taking into account R's planned massive tax cuts and increased military spending

Their proposed cuts in govt programs are peanuts compared to the lost revenue from tax cuts and military spending they want. Their proposals for Medicaid and Soc Sec would not reduce expenditures for several years into future.

[onethatcares]

16. thank you for pointing that out

the mess in Iraq went on while taxes on the wealthy were being reduced and the republicans screamed when the numbers finally went on the books of President Obamas administration.

[Yo_Mama]

21. Federal deficit rose in 2016!!!

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSD