Corn Belt crop conditions decline along with topsoil moisture

[OmahaBlueDog]

Source: Drovers Cattle Network

Two of every three corn fields in Illinois are rated in poor or very poor condition, says USDA in the July 23 crop progress report, as the national corn crop continues to decline. Although Illinois produces more corn than some other states, their ratings are even worse.

For example, 71 percent of Indiana corn is rated poor to very poor, and 78 percent of Missouri corn is poor to very poor. The ratings were released moments after the market closed with substantial losses in commodity prices, but those declines continued into the overnight trading session. Details follow.

Nationally, the 2012 corn crop is rated 45 percent poor to very poor and only 26 percent good to excellent. That represents a 7 percent slide into the bottom categories from last week, and 5 percent sliding out of the top category from the prior week. Nationally, soybeans were rated 35 percent in poor to very poor condition and 34 percent in good to excellent. That represents a 5 percent slide into the bottom categories and a 3 percent slide out of the top categories. The numbers were listed in the July 23 USDA Crop Progress and Condition Report.

As indicated in Illinois, 66 percent of the corn crop is rated poor to very poor, a function of the fact that 99 percent of the topsoil is rated short or very short of soil moisture. Subsoil moisture is 97 percent short to very short. USDA says Corn conditions continued declining and were rated at 36 percent very poor, 30 percent poor, 27 percent fair, and 7 percent good. There were several reports from southern areas of producers cutting corn originally intended for grain into silage or even disking it under. Soybean conditions were rated at 24 percent very poor, 25 percent poor, 38 percent fair, 12 percent good, and 1 percent excellent.



Read more: Linhttp://www.cattlenetwork.com/cattle-news/Corn-Belt-crop-conditions-decline-along-with-topsoil-moisture-163531766.html?ref=766k to source

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Everyone needs to start bracing themselves for higher grocery prices this fall.

[Berlum]

1. " A word to the wise is sufficient" - Sister Rose Thorn

[OmahaBlueDog]

3. I saw some of that last week in South Dakota

Out near Parkston, I saw fields that were barely 3' high. It's no better here. In Omaha, we have not had measurable rain since 6/23.

Where was that photo taken?

[Uncle Joe]

2. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread, OmahaBlueDog.

[kooljerk666]

4. NO MORE ETHANOL!!!

That is about the only good that will come out of this.

[OmahaBlueDog]

6. ..in a related article

U.S. should rethink ethanol target as drought bites (Reuters)

http://www.cattlenetwork.com/cattle-news/latest/US-should-rethink-ethanol-target-as-drought-bites-163560276.html

The United States should consider lowering its targets for the use of corn in alternative fuel ethanol, as the impact on U.S. crops from the worst drought more than 50 years becomes clearer, an OECD official said on Tuesday.

Searing heat has parched crops in the Midwest grain belt, rattling markets that had anticipated big harvests would replenish low stocks and driving prices to record highs.

The situation was not yet comparable with that of 2007/08 when supply tensions across all major staple crops sparked rioting in some countries, but the threat to this year's U.S. harvest would put a spotlight on demand for ethanol, Ken Ash, head of trade and agriculture at the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, said.

"What I would like to see is where we are a little further along in the growing season, I don't mean in October but I mean in the middle of August, that's a real good moment to ask that question and to think about whether the situation is such that a relaxing of the mandates makes sense," he told Reuters.

[caraher]

10. I'm not sure how the ethanol situation will play out...

Our local paper reported on three nearby ethanol operations. One plant has simply stopped operating, and one of the other two has a lot of corn from last year. But they all said there's no way they're going to try to make ethanol if they have to pay $10/bushel for corn. I'm not sure where that leaves the ethanol mandates if the ethanol suppliers decide to stop producing.

[OmahaBlueDog]

12. Add this to the equation

Many cattle producers have come to rely on the bi-products of the plants as cattle feed.

[caraher]

15. Good point

I toured one of the local plants and they made a big deal out of that (arguing that they were oh-so-eco-friendly because they use almost every scrap of the corn in some way).

[4th law of robotics]

33. Imagine if we'd put that money towards drought prevention

and building up our water transportation infrastructure.

[xtraxritical]

5. Well the big ag. corps. better absorb some of this loss instead of just passing thru to consumers.

Farmers are subsidized. If food prices skyrocket with the econony still so f..ked up there's going to be more people in the streets than just occupiers. Watch out grocery stores!

[OmahaBlueDog]

9. ..in another related article

CME: Cattle inventory data shakes live, feeder markets

http://www.cattlenetwork.com/cattle-news/latest/CME-Cattle-inventory-data-shakes-live-feeder-markets-163546256.html

The current drought conditions and lack of pastures will likely further exacerbate the liquidation of the US beef cow herd and reduce future calf crops. The USDA crop progress report published on Monday afternoon indicated that 26% of US pastures and ranges are now in very poor state, about 8 points higher than the same period a year ago. Another 29% of pastures and ranges are in poor state. Some states, such as Missouri, show 74% of pastures in very poor state, a situation that will most likely force many producers to sell. High corn prices have made a difficult situation untenable but significantly reducing potential future profits.

March 2013 feeder futures were trading at around $164/cwt in mid June but have declined to the mid to high 140s currently. With high feed costs, poor pastures and lower out front prices for calves, the incentive will be to once again liquidate beef cows. Despite the shrinking calf crop, US beef producers have been able to sustain, and even increase, beef production since the 1980s. But as productivity gains hit an inflection point and calf crop declines, forecasts are for steady reduction in beef output.

[harun]

7. An inconvenient truth...

[riderinthestorm]

8. There's a poster in GD whose saying any farmer with bad yields is just a shitty farmer

who isn't "doing it right".

Same thing with your lawn. If its brown, you aren't "doing it right".

Drought? What drought?

[OmahaBlueDog]

11. If you have irrigation water, you may be able to save part of your crop

In some parts of Nebraska, the spigot, so to speak, has been shut off.

[riderinthestorm]

25. That's true but some crops like corn and tomatoes actually stop producing with high heat

tomatoes will put out flowers but won't produce fruit when the temps get above 85 degrees. So you can irrigate but the high heat has already ruined the crop. Same with corn - the kernels won't fill out as the temp gets so hot even with irrigation. Some corn cobs may even look okay but the yield off that cob isn't as much as in other years.

But yeah, our well pump went out during the July 4th week so we had a long conversation with the local well guy and there have been more than a few wells going dry in our area from people trying to water lawns/plants/gardens/fields etc even as counties are banning irrigation.

[Berlum]

13. There are WhackJobs everywhere who listen to Rush & Fox and repeat their Republican-corporate lies

And then there is the real world...Now playing in the Heartland of these United States.

[chervilant]

20. I'll bet

that poster is on my IL. I've had a few DUers slam me for noting how dire is our future because of several poor decisions over the past sixty years. Apparently, one is labeled a misanthrope for making such observations...

[AngryAmish]

14. I've been told that once soil gets too dry it actually repels moisture

SO you need a lot more water to get it to take up water. At least that is true for grass.

[NickB79]

19. Oh yeah, I've seen that on the farm

Water just rolls off the dust for a few minutes until it finally soaks enough rain in.

[Historic NY]

16. Without crop rotation things go down hill PDQ in dry times.

haven't we learned anything. When the dough was rolling in for ethanol some tended to overplant. I'd be extremely worried about preserving the soil now.

[NickB79]

23. Ding Ding Ding! Crop rotations are now routinely skipped

In order to maximize short-term profits, and the soils pumped with chemical fertilizers to replace nitrogen, as if nitrogen is the only ingredient for good soil. Without crop rotation, your soil loses the organic material (humus) that is vital for water retention and growth of beneficial soil microbes.

[JDPriestly]

28. My grandfather lived and tried to farm through the dustbowl in the 1930s in

Oklahoma. He left and went back to Iowa. When I was a child, he took me past his fields and explained about conservation and rotating crops. After WWII, I believe the government paid farmers to rotate their crops --clover, alfalfa, whatever to nourish the earth after a certain number of years of corn or other cash crops. Soybeans are a legume and also good for the soil. But you can't farm without water. Unless you want to farm cactus.

[JoeyT]

32. Crop rotation makes it rain?

Damn, you learn something new every day.

No matter how much you rotate, months with no rain is pretty much going to kill you.

[4th law of robotics]

34. Crop rotation does little in the face of drought

there are no combination of crops that I can think that grow just fine without water.

[tru]

43. crop rotation

Of course, crop rotation does no good without rain, but a lot of the dust bowl problem was the lack of topsoil due to lousy farming practices, such as no crop rotation.

Today's problem is climate change, however. I thought I would die soon enough to escape the effects, but it is hitting a lot sooner than I thought.

[Evasporque]

17. HFCS -- hopefully will become too expensive to lace the food supply with....nt

[xxqqqzme]

22. I was wondering about that as well.

Considering that crap is added to practically everything. There are many things I no longer buy because it is an unnecessary/unwanted additive.

[chervilant]

18. No comments about famine?

Are we so inured that we cannot understand that these 'poor to very poor' crop conditions are a harbinger of the food shortages to come?

In another thread on global climate change, a DUer noted that photosynthesis stops at 104 degrees F--just STOPS. Drought conditions (look at the most current drought map to see how bad this is) have had a measurable impact on crops, grasses, and forests across the nation. We can see the results of both these factors in the brown, brittle leaves and lawns across our nation.

How long before the venerable 'Bread Box' is empty?

[NickB79]

21. First we'll see famines in other countries

And we'll ignore it because it's just "those" people again. Maybe we'll throw them some relief aid and pat ourselves on the backs, and bitch about how cheeseburgers are 25 cents more expensive than last year. Only when the famine starts to hit home will people freak out, but by then it will be far too late to avoid widespread economic damage.

[chervilant]

24. The ignoring has already begun:

Northern Kenya, south-eastern Ethiopia, southern Somalia and Djibouti have been worst hit. The UN estimates that more than 12m people in the Horn of Africa need urgent help; tens of thousands have already died and hundreds of thousands more risk starvation. Livestock have been annihilated. Hundreds of thousands of people are streaming into refugee camps in search of help. Malnutrition rates in some areas are five times more severe than the threshold aid agencies use to define a crisis. Many children are already dying of starvation.

We have children starving within our own borders, too, but that's seldom linked to crop failures. I mention it because it's another crisis we tend to ignore.

[4th law of robotics]

35. We're a long ways from famine

we're exporting corn despite the shortfall because we still produce an excess.

Any kind of food shortage will first hit our diets by leading to a drastic reduction in meat consumption (more efficient to just eat the corn).

[NickB79]

44. We as in the US are still a ways from famine. Other countries aren't doing so hot

And many countries are seeing their own crop yields plummet as similar bad weather conditions cut their food production, putting more pressure on US crop production. If you feel this is a one-time, freaky event and that crop yields will recover next year to refill the pantry, it's not something to worry about. If, however, you think this is part of the "new normal" we've been warned about for years as global warming sets in, I'd be pretty freaked out right now.

And in the meantime, 75 million new mouths to feed are added globally every year....

[4th law of robotics]

45. Oh yeah, others may starve

and I'm sure they won't appreciate the tons of corn we're burning to power our SUVs.

But we won't.

It has been hypothesized the high food prices had a lot to do with the Arab spring that destabilized a lot of entrenched regimes.


I wonder why next years likely higher food prices will do to the transitional regimes?

[GliderGuider]

39. Back in April I said people had two summers left to learn how to garden

before they were going to need those skills to survive.

I don't think I was wrong.

I hear horsemen approaching.

[chervilant]

40. Indeed,

I have relocated to a rural part of north Arkansas where I spent my formative years. I have learned how to

garden

can and pressure process food

chop wood

harvest wild edibles

fish

hunt (six points shy of expert on the firing range)

field dress almost anything (haven't done a catfish yet...)

build a fire

ride a horse

use coal oil lamps

and a myriad of other things most people my age have never had to do.

I suspect I will be challenged to use many of these skills within the next year.

[malthaussen]

26. Just what we need, another Dust Bowl

They'll probably come up with a different name, though. We have a depression that isn't a depression, so if the topsoil just dries up and blows away we'll have to think of some spin to make it sound better. Global cooling, or something.

-- Mal

[AnotherMcIntosh]

27. Unless we get rain with lower temperatures in Illinois very soon, the remaining corn fields are

going to join the "poor or very poor condition" category.

We've seen temperatures in the high 90's even after the sun has gone down. The heat, of course, is causing futher evaporation.

Even rain may not be enough in some fields will not be enough because the appearance of the partial-green corn plants can be deceiving. The ground is drying up. While portions of the leaves still have some green in them and look partly green from the roads, the partial green doesn't mean that the plants can recover.

[JDPriestly]

29. Weather forecast for Des Moines -- thunderstorms likely Wed. night

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Des+Moines&state=IA&site=DMX&textField1=41.5767&textField2=-93.6174&e=0

104 high today but cooling off toward the end of the week.

[drokhole]

30. Monoculture corn/soy/grain farming was depleting topsoil in the first place...

...I can't imagine the toll this season is going to take. Dead soils are a real possibility in the near future. We need to be giving back to and building our soils, and that starts with biological/organic/permaculture/biodynamic/agroecological farming practices:

Soil – Our Financial Institution
http://permaculture.org.au/2008/08/07/soil-our-financial-institution

Also, cattle shouldn't be eating this type of feed in the first place. The only "feed" they should be eating is forage, and they should be out on the pastures where they can help restart the biomass and effectively build soil:

To Kick Climate Change, Replace Corn With Pastured Beef
http://www.democraticunderground.com/112713328

[amandabeech]

36. Unfortunately, the forage crops and pastures are also being hit.

Clover, alfalfa, vetch and other leguminous forage crops need plenty of water.

Last year, there was a drought mainly in the SW, there was plenty of hay (dried forage crops) around to ship to hard hit areas from places north and east.

This year, the forage crops are in bad shape, too, in most places.

If there isn't a lot of winter precep, particularly snow which melts in the spring before planting, some farmers may just plant cover crops or small grains (in places that have some moisture in the soil) and not bother to plant either soy or corn.

Investors might want to search out companies than manufacture irrigation equipment.

[Liberal_in_LA]

31. k&r

[OmahaBlueDog]

46. Omaha got its first rain since 6/23 last night

It might help some farmers. It's too late for others.

[amandabeech]

37. Just checked the USAgDep data.

Wheat and rice are doing much better than corn and soybeans. Peanuts and oats, which we people eat, are also doing well.

Corn seems to be doing best in the north and east of its range (and wherever it is commonly irrigated, like Nebraska and Texas).

http://usda01.library.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProg/CropProg-07-23-2012.pdf

[Marrah_G]

38. We've made a big mistake by turning vast areas into single crop megafarms

[GliderGuider]

41. A look at the areas of the world in drought right now

Significant portions of southern Russia and Brazil being affected as well. World wheat production looks like it's going to take a major hit, along with American corn. At least the monsoon finally started in India.

[tru]

42. not to worry - our government is working hard on the problem of climate change.

Not.