Tropical Storm Jose Becomes the 10th Named Storm of the Hurricane Season

[steve2470]

Source: Weather.com (The Weather Channel)

Another tropical storm has formed in the Atlantic Ocean.

Jose is well east of the Lesser Antilles.

Jose will likely become a hurricane by later in the week.

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Jose, in addition to Irma, closely.

Read more: https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/tropical-storm-hurricane-jose-forecast-atlantic

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video at link above this section


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/150131.shtml?cone



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/052033.shtml?


Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT42 KNHC 052033
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

A distinct curved band of deep convection wraps more than half way
around the center of Jose in its southern semicircle. Due to the
improved structure, the Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from TAFB
and SAB have increased to a 3.0 and 2.0, respectively. A blend of
these input gives a 40 kt intensity for the initial time.

Jose's current motion is assessed to be west at 11 kt, though this
is uncertain due to not knowing the initial position with much
confidence. Jose should move toward the west or west-northwest for
the next three to four days at a slightly faster rate of forward
speed as it moves south of the deep-layer Azores-Bermuda high. In
about four to five days, Jose should turn toward the northwest and
slow as it reaches the southwestern periphery of the high. The
official track forecast is primarily based upon a blend of the
ECMWF-UKMET model output and is nearly unchanged from the previous
advisory.

The environment in which Jose is located in appears to be quite
conducive for development for the next three days as the SSTs are
very warm, the vertical shear is very low, and there is abundant
mid-level moisture. By days four and five, however, the vertical
shear may increase in part due to the outflow from Hurricane Irma to
its west. Thus the official intensity forecast shows steady
intensification until day three, then decreases slightly to day
five. This forecast is based upon the IVCN multi-model consensus
technique, but has the usual - large - uncertainties at the long
forecast ranges.

No new observations have been available, so I have let it ride for
the initial tropical-storm-wind radii. The official size forecast
indicates a gradual increase in size, based upon the RVCN
multi-model consensus approach.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 12.5N 40.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 12.9N 42.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 13.6N 45.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 14.3N 48.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 14.9N 51.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 16.5N 56.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 18.7N 59.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 22.0N 63.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Landsea

[steve2470]

1. wind cone

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL122017_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/203804_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

[beachbum bob]

2. TS 13 off of Mexico should be a big concern tooo

[steve2470]

3. Tropical Depression Thirteen Forecast Discussion

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/052038.shtml

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017
400 PM CDT Tue Sep 05 2017

The small area of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
has become better organized during the past several hours, with deep
convection forming over the center. ASCAT data showed a
well-defined circulation with winds of about 30 kt. Thus, a
tropical depression has formed, with maximum winds estimated at 30
kt. While the cyclone is currently experiencing westerly shear,
most of the guidance indicate the shear should gradually lessen.
Combined with the very warm Gulf of Mexico waters, this should
promote strengthening. The shear could increase again in a few
days, so the intensity forecast will be leveled off at that time.
The NHC wind speed prediction is near or slightly higher than the
model consensus, but could be conservative.

The depression has been drifting eastward during the day. For the
next couple of days, the cyclone isn't expected to move much as it
is caught in an area of light winds in the mid-levels. By Friday, a
ridge should build over Texas and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico,
which is likely to steer the system southwestward at a faster pace.
The NHC forecast is on the southern side of the guidance, since
models in that area tend to have a northward bias, between the
corrected consensus and the ECMWF.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 22.4N 96.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 22.4N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 22.2N 95.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 21.8N 95.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 21.4N 95.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 20.9N 95.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 19.7N 97.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

NNNN

[ancianita]

4. Shaping up to be a biblical season, even for us atheists.

[beachbum bob]

5. no where near the record....

[bathroommonkey76]

6. If you play the animation for Sept 13,14, & 15

you'll see Jose' lingering around southern Florida.



https://www.ventusky.com/?p=27.5;-75.5;5&l=gust&t=20170915/06