Caribbean under hurricane watch again. Tropical Storm Maria following Irma's track.

[Zorro]

Source: Miami Herald

Tropical Storm Maria formed in the Atlantic Saturday afternoon, threatening to pound islands already hit hard by Irma with another hurricane early next week.

In a 5 p.m. update, National Hurricane Center forecasters said Maria will likely bring dangerous winds, more storm surge and heavy rain to parts of the Lesser Antilles next week. Saturday afternoon, hurricane watches were issued for Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat. Tropical storm watches were issued earlier in the day for other islands in the chain.

By midweek, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico could again face fierce winds with Maria expected to become another major hurricane. Watches could be issued for the islands as early as Sunday.

It’s not yet clear what impact Florida and the U.S. might face from the storm. Model projections so far out can often be hundreds of miles off. But an early run of the European model — which reliably tracked Irma — takes the storm toward Florida.

Read more: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article173746616.html

[packman]

1. Jeez, Did we piss off Mother Nature or what?

[mopinko]

2. we sure do piss on her.

[OxQQme]

3. Jose's still spinning away off the east coast

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-63.19,18.39,800/loc=-64.352,22.406

and there's a spinner off the west coast of Mexico just below the tip of Baja. It's been sitting there all through Irma.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-104.29,19.07,800/loc=-109.434,15.840

[nitpicker]

4. Link to models

http://flhurricane.com/

Scroll down to the SFWMD and Clark Evans model tracks for Maria.

[question everything]

5. And meanwhile, in my morning paper

there is a full page ad for.... Sandals, with a map of the Caribbean Islands..

[herding cats]

7. Katia hit Mexico killing 2 in Xalapa

Jose lost strength and direction due in part to Irma stirring up deeper cooler water in her wake combined with a high pressure that changed its trajectory.

[herding cats]

9. The otherside of America?

It formed in Gulf of Mexico off the Texas coast and a high pressure system over Texas pushed it down to Mexico.

[muriel_volestrangler]

10. Forecast now up to 110 knots max sustained - 125 mph - when it gets to Puerto Rico, 2pm Wed

(17.8N 65.8W) : http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT5+shtml/172052.shtml

The initial motion remains west-northwestward, or 283/13 kt. Maria
is expected to maintain this trajectory for quite some time, but it
will likely slow down during the next 36 hours as it approaches the
Lesser Antilles. Overall, the track guidance is tightly clustered
for the entire 5-day forecast period, which increases confidence in
the NHC track forecast. The updated official forecast is slightly
south of the previous one for the first 36 hours, mainly due to the
update of the initial position found by the aircraft, but it is
right along the previous track after 36 hours. This solution is
between the GFS and ECMWF models and very close to the HCCA
solution.

The aircraft data indicate that Maria has a compact circulation,
which could make it a prime candidate for significant
intensification in an environment of low shear and warm SSTs.
Rapid intensification indices are not especially high, but
nonetheless, Maria is forecast to continue strengthening and
potentially reach major hurricane by 48 hours. If that occurs,
some fluctuations in intensity could occur due to eyewall
replacements and land interaction, but Maria will likely remain as
a major hurricane on days 3 through 5. Because of Maria's small
size the chance of significant strengthening is higher, and the NHC
intensity forecast is near the high end of the guidance, closest to
the HWRF and HCCA models.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria has strengthened to a hurricane and could be near major
hurricane intensity when it affects portions of the Leeward Islands
over the next few days, bringing dangerous wind, storm surge and
rainfall hazards. Hurricane and tropical storm warnings have been
issued for portions of the Leeward Islands, and these warnings will
likely be extended northward and westward tonight or on Monday.

2. Maria is likely to affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico by mid week as a dangerous major hurricane. Hurricane
watches have been issued for the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and
could be extended to Puerto Rico tonight or early Monday. Interests
in these areas should monitor the progress of Maria and follow any
advice given by local officials.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/172053.shtml

[Baclava]

11. Turn on the deflector fans