Former NATO military chief: there's a 10% chance of nuclear war with North Korea

[DonViejo]

Source: Vox



And a 20-30% chance of a conventional one.

Updated by Yochi Dreazen Sep 28, 2017, 9:00am EDT

Retired Navy Adm. James Stavridis spent 37 years in the military, including four years as the supreme allied commander of NATO. Hillary Clinton vetted him as a possible running mate. President-elect Donald Trump considered naming him secretary of state. He is a serious man, and about as far from an armchair pundit as it’s possible to be.

And that’s precisely what makes his assessment of the escalating standoff with North Korea so jarring. Stavridis believes there’s at least a 10 percent chance of a nuclear war between the US and North Korea, and a 20 to 30 percent chance of a conventional, but still bloody, conflict.

“I think we are closer to a significant exchange of ordnance than we have been since the end of the Cold War on the Korean peninsula,” he said during a panel I moderated Tuesday at the University of Pennsylvania’s Perry World House. His estimate of the potential death toll from even a nonnuclear war with North Korea is just as striking. North Korea has at least 11,000 artillery pieces trained on Seoul, South Korea’s capital of 25 million people, and would be certain to use them during any conflict. The US would be just as certain to mount a sustained bombing campaign to destroy those artillery pieces as quickly as possible.

The result? “It’s hard for me to see less than 500,000 to 1 million people, and I think that’s a conservative estimate,” he said.



Read more: https://www.vox.com/2017/9/28/16375158/north-korea-nuclear-war-trump-kim-jong-un

[Girard442]

1. And what % chance of the end of civilization?

[Tobin S.]

3. My thinking, too. I looked at the headline and thought of it as an improvement.

[PatSeg]

4. Yes

We have two real life cartoon characters with the fate of the world in their pudgy hands. At least in the U.S., there is a chance that some sane voices could intervene, but that is unlikely in North Korea.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

5. What are the odds of a non-nuclear war?

Even that would be tough on Seoul, and might require many more soldiers than we have available.