CBO: Obamacare mandate repeal would cut deficit by $338 billion

[DonViejo]

Last edited Thu Nov 9, 2017, 12:08 AM - Edit history (1)

Source: Politico



CBO: Obamacare mandate repeal would cut deficit by $338 billion

But it would also leave 13 million more uninsured.

By JENNIFER HABERKORN 11/08/2017 09:39 AM EST Updated 11/08/2017 05:17 PM EST

Repealing Obamacare’s individual mandate would save the government $338 billion over a decade and result in 13 million more uninsured Americans in 2027, according to a new CBO score.

Congressional Republicans are considering axing Obamacare’s requirement that most Americans obtain health coverage as part of a tax reform package, although there is resistance from GOP leaders who fear the provision would be rejected in the Senate because it would also mean millions in coverage losses and revive the partisan debate on the rest of the Affordable Care Act.

The CBO score was based on prior legislative text to repeal the mandate, not on new language related to tax reform.

The new analysis finds that repealing the mandate would not have as big of an impact as the estimates CBO made nearly a year ago. A December 2016 CBO analysis found that undoing the mandate would reduce the budget deficit by $416 billion over nearly a decade and result in 15 million more uninsured Americans in 2026 than under current law.



Read more: https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/08/cbo-score-obamacare-repeal-244688

[Marie Marie]

1. Now watch the Repubs shout the first line and ignore the second.

[Turbineguy]

2. The resulting bankruptcies are free

under GOP Magic Math.

[mr_lebowski]

3. Wait ... what's the logic of the 'mandate repeal' cutting the deficit by Hundreds of Billion$?

How would that move be expected to work out in that direction, exactly?

Less people availing themselves of the subsidies, by not taking any insurance at all, is that where the net difference comes from?

Huh-huh ... I tell you what, I rather doubt that the INSURERS that own many politicians (on both sides, let's be real) are going to be pleased about the idea of dropping the mandate. The mandate is what 'forces' younger/healthier people into the risk pool, that's the main reason it exists ... Big Insurance insisted on it. Otherwise, you'll get TONS of people waiting until they have health issues before they actually sign up for insurance (that the insurers MUST give them, per the ACA).

I don't see it happening for that reason (not because of any other intrinsic value for having OR not having the mandate).

[Yupster]

4. Since almost everyone on the exchanges

gets a subsidy, then the fewer people signing onto the exchanges will mean less subsidies, and therefore less cost to the federal government.

[BumRushDaShow]

5. And that means

the costs get shoved back to the states who will have to pay for all the high-cost emergency-room usage from people who are uninsured once more.

[lagomorph777]

8. So... did they account for the lost productivity/taxes from all the extra sick people?

I doubt it.

[still_one]

6. Well let me try this. If Medicare was eliminated, with no other changes, the

deficit would be cut dramatically. Of course millions of people would die prematurely, and that would add even more savings because more people would be taken off of the social security rolls because of their demise.

I find it curious that the CBO does not take into consideration who would pay for medical expenses of those who choose not to get insurance and needed treatment, where does that money come from?

There is a real cost for those uninsured, and the CBO does not seem to consider that cost.

The CBO's assumption that everything else stays the same is an unrealistic assumption. For one, the Republicans have made it very clear that they want to reduce taxes, especially favoring certain income groups, so any so-called deficit reduction would be erased by those reduced taxes.

The other problem that the CBO seems to gloss over is by eliminating the individual mandate, more individuals who think they don't need insurance, wouldn't get it, and that would drive the insurance rates up for everyone else. The CBO estimates that would be 10% per year, but it is actually worse than that because it would cause a snowball effect. As insurance premiums go up, more people would opt out of coverage, and that would make the rates even go up higher.

However, the most important aspect which the CBO isn't considering is not the cost in dollars and cents, but the cost of human suffering that would result from not having insurance.

[TexasBushwhacker]

7. Add the cost of premature death and disability

When an uninsured person becomes disabled because they didn't have health insurance, they have to be paid SSDI.

When a person dies prematurely, that means the money they would have paid in Social Security, Medicare and income tax disappears. If they have a spouse and/or dependent children, they are paid survivors benefits.

And while the federal government will "save" $330 Billion, in reality that cost is just handed over to the state and county health care systems.

[still_one]

9. You nailed it Texas!!!

[TexasBushwhacker]

11. Not to mention, if the uninsured are lucky enough to live to age 65

They will certainly enter Medicare sicker with poorly managed high blood pressure, diabetes, heart disease, etc.

[maxsolomon]

10. Cool! Now do "Eliminate the Dept of Defense"

How much would that cut the deficit?