First poll released for US Senate candidates in ND
Source: Fox West Dakota
BISMARCK, N.D. - The first of what is expected to be many polls looking at the U.S. Senate candidates for North Dakota was released Tuesday, showing incumbent Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, D-N.D., with a narrow lead over Rep. Kevin Cramer, R, N.D.
Heitkamp leads Cramer 43 to 40 with 17 percent of voters still undecided, which is unsurprising as the election is still months away.
The poll was conducted online by Gravis Marketing with 385 respondents and a margin of error of 5 percentage points. Heitkamp trails among Trump supporters by a wide margin but has a lead among white voters. Cramer has a tight with older voters.
...snip...
The poll also looked at the House race which shows Tom Campbell leading the pack at 28 percent of voters. Kelly Armstrong is in second with 13 percent, but nearly half of voters are undecided.
Read more: http://www.kfyrtv.com/content/news/First-poll-released-for-US-Senate-candidates-in-ND-475339023.html
= new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight:
NoneDon't highlight anything
5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Dawson Leery
(19,508 posts)both Heitkamp and Donnelly win.
With that said, this is a right wing poll with a tiny sample.
bearsfootball516
(6,671 posts)
NewsCenter28
(1,837 posts)51-49 Dem majority seems all but assured if the national environment stays as is or worsens for the KGOP.
Why? Note that Cook has ONLY these below races rated as D toss-ups now:
IN - Donnelly
MO - McCaskill
ND - Heitkamp
WV - Manchin
MN - Smith
KGOP needs to take down 3 of the above, probably 4, to hold the majority.
The rest of Cook toss-ups are R-held seats.
We hold:
FL
MT
ND
MO-Governor's scandal hurts there and pushes Claire over the top.
MN
We gain the COOK GOP toss ups easily:
AZ
NV
TN-Marsha Blackburn is unelectable.
That's 52-48 Dem majority. We can lose Indiana and Missouri, or a combination of those 2 and still have at least a 50-50 senate. If we hold IN, MO, and WV, we only need AZ and NV to have a 51-49 majority. OR we could lose IN, MO, and WV but sweep the GOP toss-ups and hold the senate majority.
Math looks very very bad indeed for senate KGOP!
rpannier
(24,829 posts)
True Blue American
(18,579 posts)He will not run. He said from the beginning he would only serve 2 terms.
I just hope he votes for the NEt neutrality bill. They only need one more vote.
I do hope a couple of Republicans will vote against this awful vote by the FCC.
Collins is already there. Hatch is being encouraged to do so.
rpannier
(24,829 posts)Last story I saw (about 2 weeks ago), he was reported to be wavering due to pleadings of his republikkan senate colleagues
True Blue American
(18,579 posts)He just announced yesterday.easy to miss.
NewsCenter28
(1,837 posts)Heidi needs your cash. Saw your post the other day. Our path to a senate majority runs through her. Time to swallow the fact that she doesn't agree with you on 100% of the issues. The question is what is more important to you: Ideological purity or a Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.
brooklynite
(96,882 posts)I still don't see data that tells me the Senate is winnable, and if I give money to Heitkamp, I'm not giving it to a winnable Governorship or 2-3 House seats. Since I can't cover everyone, I'l start the culling process by seeing if they meet a bare minimum on issues I see as critical.
BumRushDaShow
(164,495 posts)
grantcart
(53,061 posts)We were able to get the media to look at them more closely and Slate even called them the worst pollsters in America
http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2014/05/21/the_worst_poll_in_america.html
My perspective now:
1) Kaplan and the rest are really bad guys who used aggressive robo calls in their commercial business in a highly unethical way. Funniest example was when I found a connection between them and the "free trip to Florida scam" and while I was reading the particulars I got a call offering me a free trip to Florida.
I was able to trace one of the partners to an out right scam where they were using a name very similar to "Make A Wish" but couldn't get enough evidence to "reveal" the details.
2) I remember reading a release from Gravis where they admitted that they didn't have enough Pol Sci leadership to run polls and that they were hiring people to add that to them.
538 now gives them a B- and ranks them essentially the same as Gallup. They had a great in house advantage: Very sophisticated robo calling hardware. I assume that for the most part they are now a mainstream polling operation with one main exception below.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
however
3) I wouldn't trust Gravis OR ANY OTHER POLLSTER who posts atypical results during a time when there are critical fund raising numbers that will make or break a campaign. In that circumstance I believe that Gravis, and many other polling firms will "tailor" their polls (if they even run them) to get the results needed for an extra fee.
For example, during the Romney campaign there was clear polling that he was absolutely stuck in the swing states that he needed to win the electoral college. His contributions were drying up and surprise Larry Sabato Center for Politics (who is respected and mainstream) comes out with 2 or 3 polls that show a big bump for Romney in Colorado, Virginia and one other state (relying on memory) and the next week Romney's contributions are back up. No other pollster showed a bump. Subsequent polling, even by Sabato erased the bump.
We should take any poll with a grain of salt unless the same reputable polling company has done the same poll consistently which will show movement using exactly the same methodology (like Gallups weekly tracking poll).
During the campaign we should be very suspicious to outliers that are generous to the candidate who is paying for the poll because they can pull the poll just by changing the order of the questions.
What would be really helpful is if we had a pollster industry group that certified methodologies and whose members were agreeable to spot outside audits, like we do for the Olympics. At this point we don't even know if these companies are even making the calls or just billing their clients. In Gravis case they have the robo call infrastructure so making the calls doesn't cost them. Most other pollsters have to hire companies like Gravis to do the calling. US industries are particularly susceptible to not establishing ethical industry standards so caution is the best council.
Having said that having a lead in ND is a good sign, probably our toughest state to defend. The republicans and the WH are going to spend millions to try and flip this one.
BumRushDaShow
(164,495 posts)
BlueMTexpat
(15,649 posts)words of wisdom, grantcart! 
Heitkamp is about the best one can expect from ND, I'm afraid. I hope that she wins there.