Republicans hold on to Arizona House seat

[Julian Englis]

Source: The Hill

Republican Debbie Lesko is projected to win Arizona’s nationally watched special election, fending off a strong challenge from Democrats who have been over-performing in deep-red seats.

Lesko, a former state senator, defeated Democrat Hiral Tipirneni, a former emergency room doctor and first-time candidate, on Tuesday night in a solidly Republican district that President Trump won by 21 points in 2016.

Tuesday’s special election was triggered by the resignation of GOP Rep. Trent Franks, who stepped down in December after allegedly asking a staffer to carry his child. Lesko will serve out the remainder of Franks’s term, and is expected to run again in November for a full two-year term.

Republicans were expected to hang onto the GOP stronghold, but national groups took a more cautious approach after a major Democratic upset in last month’s Pennsylvania special election.

Read more: http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/384654-republicans-hold-on-to-arizona-house-seat

[mobeau69]

1. It wasn't a normal puke blowout by any stretch.

Go Blue!

[Hortensis]

32. And the Repub candidate wasn't even a pedophile or

facing indictment for corruption. She was an ordinary Republican candidate who didn't do well at all in Sheriff Arpaio's district against a foreign-born Democratic opponent, another woman with a foreign name.

Oh, and the Republican Party outspent the Democratic Party in this special election for a temporary seat by $1 million to 0. (The contributions to our Democratic candidate were all from individuals and Democratic groups.)

Cook report says there are 147 GOP-held House seats less red than this district. Lesko now has to run all over again to keep the seat in November, but even having 78,000 more registered voters than the Democrats doesn't make it a sure thing at all.

[The Mouth]

2. By a few percent in a district that Trump took by 20?

That's got to put a scare into 'em.

[mobeau69]

15. 21

[tirebiter]

3. Looking on the bright side of life

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Woohoo! With tonight's 59-41 win in <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NYAD10?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NYAD10</a>, Democrats flip their 40th legislative seat of the cycle! <a href="https://t.co/pc9BxO9DZI">https://t.co/pc9BxO9DZI</a></p>— Daily Kos Elections (@DKElections) <a href="

Link to tweet

?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 25, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[Hortensis]

31. Wow! 40th pickup, and it's not even the midterms yet.

[Judi Lynn]

4. They aren't going to last forever. They don't own Arizona, no matter what they have thought.

Their time to fade into the background is on its way.

The world is so sick of fascists. They are in their death throes even as we post. The information regarding how they behave when they have power isn't going to die with the generations, now that we have ways of preserving great records forever! They have always relied on the fact their victims either die right away or soon, and the new people born won't remember how bad it was, while the greedy, slimy next generation maggots kept the disease, evil, and greed alive.

All that is changing. Dirtbags will be going down!

[spooky3]

5. Steve Kornacki says MSNBC is NOT yet calling this race.

It's currently 53% Lesko. He's now explaining that there are a lot of outstanding ballots, etc., but that it would be VERY difficult for Tipirneni to make up the difference.

Even if it ends up this way, that is an outstanding Dem performance in a very red district!

"If you are a Republican, you should be very nervous!"

[left-of-center2012]

7. I heard a lot of mail ballots haven't been counted

But it may not be enough.

[DeminPennswoods]

8. All that's been released are the early, mailed ballots

It's about 74% of the vote, but Kornacki said none of the early ballots that were turned today or the actual election day vote has been counted/released. He estimated those numbers at 15-16k and 19k respectively. If those estimates are close, Tipirneni would need about 2/3s to win. It's a long shot, though.

[spooky3]

10. Thanks. Fingers crossed for single digits.

[Honeycombe8]

6. Bad news. nt

[jmowreader]

11. Actually, it's bad news for the GOP

https://www.washingtonpost.com/special-election-results/arizona/?utm_term=.6bd1b2671100

The district is mostly rural and packed with senior citizens - perfect GOP country.

The suburban precincts swung Democratic by 15 points - Trump +18, Lesko +3.
The rural precincts did worse: Trump +31, Lesko +13, swing blue +18.

From the looks of this, the GOP has a harder task in November than we do. They are counting on big pickups of Democratic seats so as to give Trump a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate and a solid majority in the House. Right now, I'd say they are going to be extremely lucky to come out of this with a Senate majority - remember, they lose three seats and the Trump agenda is dead - and there's a non-zero chance the whole Congress flips.

[marybourg]

14. Not mostly rural. 30 years ago it was.

But now mostly suburban.

[DinahMoeHum]

9. A Pyrrhic victory for the GOP. . .

. . .from Salon's perspective. . .

https://www.salon.com/2018/04/24/democrats-probably-wont-win-arizonas-special-election-but-the-gops-still-in-trouble/

(boldface emphasis is mine - DMH)

(snip)
Nearly everyone in politics expects Lesko to defeat Tipirneni, but they'll be paying close attention to her margin of victory. However Republicans choose to spin this, the fact is that anything less than a 10 percent edge will smell like an impending November disaster for the GOP.

Arizona may well have two Senate races in November, with Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema apparently leading in the race to replace retiring Republican Jeff Flake, and Sen. John McCain's health very much in question. If Lesko's margin on Tuesday is in the single digits, watch out for even more GOP retirements, and a widening sense that even states they thought were under control are starting to slip away.
(snip)

[BlueMTexpat]

13. Thanks for posting this!

It does give hope for November!

[oberliner]

17. Gabby Giffords won here in 2006, 2008, and 2010

Democrats held this district not that long ago.

[padfun]

19. I think Gabby was Tucson and Pima county?

This is West Phoenix and Glendale.

This area is Sun City Retirement people.

[Bengus81]

25. Retirement people vote for the very Party that wants to GUT Medicare??

And no doubt suck the life out of social security. What the FUCK is wrong with people?? What...it HAS to happen before they get mad enough to vote their best interests? Hate to tell em but by then it's TOO LATE.

[BumRushDaShow]

21. The boundaries are completely different. Franks won after the 2010 redistricting.

AZ-8 PRE-2012 - (Gabby Giffords)



AZ-8 POST-2012 - (Trent Franks)

[oberliner]

23. Thanks for the info (and same to the other respondent)

Hard to keep track with all the re-districting going on.

[BumRushDaShow]

30. "Hard to keep track" - Ain't that the truth!

I confirmed that AZ gained a seat after the 2010 census so they had to redraw anyway.

[Loki Liesmith]

26. Agent O reporting for duty

The only question I have is whether or not you are willfully understating the significance of the democratic swing in this district, or if you just don’t understand it.

[oberliner]

27. Note my correction above

Did not realize the redistricting change. Mea culpa for the ignorance on my part.

[Kingofalldems]

28. Yes and right on time.

[highplainsdem]

12. Currently Lesko 52.6, Tipirneni 47.4, according to Kornacki. Same-day votes included. Still

not quite 10,000 uncounted early votes, early ballots that arrived by mail or were dropped off in-person today. Those won't be counted till tomorrow.

So a 5-point margin, where Trump won by 21. NOT good news for the GOP.

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki

[oberliner]

16. This district was held by a Democrat from 2007 - 2013

Gabby Giffords was re-elected twice.

[padfun]

20. Different Area

"After redistricting for the 2012 general election, the new 8th district encompasses most of the Maricopa County portion of the old 2nd district, while most of the former 8th district became the 2nd congressional district.[3] It is the geographic and demographic successor of the old 2nd; while the 4th district contains most of the old 2nd's land, more than 92 percent of the old 2nd's constituents were drawn into the 8th.[4]"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arizona%27s_8th_congressional_district

[BumRushDaShow]

22. Included the different maps in an earlier post but including here as well

AZ-8 PRE-2012 - (Gabby Giffords)



AZ-8 POST-2012 - (Trent Franks)

[oberliner]

24. Thanks for pointing that out

Redistricting always throws things off for me when I try to keep track of this sort of thing. Appreciate the info!

[kimbutgar]

29. A lot of old white folks who watch Fox all day in their recliners

Been in that district, tea party central, lot of Twitler signs during the election and they have the time to vote.