CNN poll: Democrats' 2018 advantage is nearly gone
Source: CNN
The generic congressional ballot has continued to tighten, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS, with the Democrats' edge over Republicans within the poll's margin of sampling error for the first time this cycle.
About six months out from Election Day, 47% of registered voters say they back the Democratic candidate in their district, 44% back the Republican. Voters also are divided almost evenly over whether the country would be better off with the Democrats in control of Congress (31%) or with the GOP in charge (30%). A sizable 34% -- including nearly half of independent voters (48%) -- say it doesn't matter which party controls Congress.
The Democrats' advantage in the generic ballot dipped from 16 points in February to six points in March to just three points now. The party's advantage has waned among enthusiastic voters as Republican enthusiasm has grown (in March, 36% of Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters said they were very enthusiastic about voting; that's up to 44% in the new poll), but the Democrats still have a double-digit lead among those most excited to vote this fall (53% of those who are very enthusiastic about voting say they'd back the Democrat in their district vs. 41% who say they favor the GOP candidate). Those enthusiastic voters also say by a 10-point margin that the nation would be better off with Democrats in control of Congress than Republicans.
By 48% to 43%, registered voters say they would rather back a candidate who opposes Donald Trump than one who supports the President. That margin has narrowed from the 52% who opposed Trump to the 41% who supported him in January.
Read more: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/cnn-poll-democrats-2018-advantage-is-nearly-gone/ar-AAx1WuO?li=BBnb7Kz
This sort of reminds me of the Bush Bump years when Republicans rode the Clinton budget surplus, plus the corporate euphoria over Bush's tax cuts to retain Congress for the first two years under Dubya before the bottom started to fall out.
Expect Republicans to roll back financial regulations to try to grease the real estate market for an election cycle or two, before blowing up the economy and once again blaming Democrats as they take back power with Fox News running interference all the way.
Meanwhile, a new generation of Jill Steins and Dennis Kucinich sock puppets with their Russian/Republican social media trolls to happily attack Democrats from the "left" and call them neoliberals while giving Republicans a free pass. Here is one, the Sane Progressive, that was once was heavily linked on this site who is still attacking Democrats from the left while giving Republicans a free pass. Notably, she is now doing her best to defend Russia:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxpfmCp2Z9VPTO7eWV6ebzQ
So, the poll results are not all that surprising, since the corporate/Russian propaganda efforts on both the left and right are in full swing. Expect the leftist sounding buzzword "neoliberal" to be used early and often by the Fox News Jill Stein/Dennis Kucinich types.
Blanks
(4,835 posts)Yes, people are saying in the poll that they support republican candidates almost equally, but the democrats are more fired up to go to the polls.
That was the last I heard. I dont see many republican movements that bring them out into the streets.
Lucky Luciano
(11,248 posts)Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)Lucky Luciano
(11,248 posts)That sucks.
There is no question he will get a big bump from North Korea, so Im afraid.
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)There was a huge anti-Trump spike caused by 2 or 3 polls at the end of 2017, but those were outliers. Remove them and youll see theres no trend to speak of.
Crowman2009
(2,490 posts)Hence why these polls are skewed. That's why I'm always suspect of these MSM polls. Especially with the Russian meddling.
Wwcd
(6,288 posts)Meanwhile, a new generation of Jill Steins and Dennis Kucinich sock puppets with their Russian/Republican social media trolls to happily attack Democrats from the "left" and call them neoliberals while giving Republicans a free pass.
Here is one, the Sane Progressive, that was once was heavily linked on this site who is still attacking Democrats from the left while giving Republicans a free pass. Notably, she is now doing her best to defend Russia:
Such a lovely anti-American bunch to defend! WOWEEE!!
so supporters of this anti-American cult, are you Proud of yourselves yet? How about start vocally standing up Against them for lying to you all.
They don't give a shit about YOU at all.
Eliot Rosewater
(31,106 posts)Dont think this poll or approach is accurate though.
Either there is a massive blue wave or America wont survive, so it wont matter.
Bradshaw3
(7,485 posts)On both sides from the more far out candidates like Kucinich and Don Blankenship. I think voters are digging in for the general and control of Congress. This poll just affirms that we can't take anything for granted and have to get out there and work and donate and vote and try to get every vote we can.
Tiggeroshii
(11,088 posts)Gothmog
(144,919 posts)paleotn
(17,881 posts)Given that most eligible voters don't even bother to vote even in presidential elections much less off year cycles, all that matters is who goes to the polls this year. The numbers still show Dems are more likely to turn out than Rethugs. The middle doesn't matter because they turn out in dribs and drabs anyway.
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)racism, etc.
GOPers will be motivated by lies and fears. It will be 24/7 -- vote GOPer for your gunz, white America, . . . . . .
And they will vote. We need to motivate more to vote than seem motivated now.
shanny
(6,709 posts)as it wasn't in 2016.
mcar
(42,278 posts)Nor one message, ad, tweet, etc. Dems running for office have a varied platform that focuses on local and liberal issues.
Eliot Rosewater
(31,106 posts)only anti traitor though, so that isnt going to matter.
emulatorloo
(44,061 posts)2016 campaign covered issues and policies. Wasnt just Anti_Trump as youve mischaracterized it. DUer arent stupid and they arent going to played for fools by bullshit hot takes and stale dishonest talking points
shanny
(6,709 posts)And, btw, "DU'er"s aren't the only folk what matter.
emulatorloo
(44,061 posts)education, the environment, civil rights, and the economy.
Those are verifiable facts.
Fact-free Revisionist history doesnt fly here.
You wont be able to get away with this stuff on DU in primary 2020 when you try to smear Democratic primary candidates like Kamala Harris etc with your unsupportable hot takes and regurgitated fact-free anti-Democratic Dems have no ideas talking points.
Youll get pushback when you try to do revisionist history like this, and all the eye-rolling smilies in the world arent going to save you from being called out.
shanny
(6,709 posts)"Her website was full of policy proposals on jobs, education and the economy."
Many, I am sure, totally connect with websites.
emulatorloo
(44,061 posts)You arent as clever as you think you are.
emulatorloo
(44,061 posts)As I say, revisionist history doesnt fly here. Have a nice night.
Clarity2
(1,009 posts)1,000 random people do not represent 200M+ eligible voters in this country. Its a huge crapshoot on reliability.
Crowman2009
(2,490 posts)VMA131Marine
(4,135 posts)The problem is that it's impossible to take a random sample of the electorate because they are not all equally accessible. So, pollsters use models to ensure that their sample represents all the important constituencies, including their likelihood of voting. I think you'll find that national polling is usually quite accurate, but it's much harder to create good polling samples for individual states or congressional districts.
The_Casual_Observer
(27,742 posts)LastLiberal in PalmSprings
(12,564 posts)going into an election (I can't remember which one). Then he paused, smiled at Dean and said, "How do you plan on blowing it?"
Unfortunately, the Dems sometimes can snatch failure from the jaws of victory. We shouldn't -- our message is 100x more positive than the fear-based one of the Repugs, but with all the voter suppression tricks they've been playing, we have to play 10x harder just to stay even.
And we will. GOTV!
BeyondGeography
(39,345 posts)Try some new ones.
TomCADem
(17,382 posts)Dont you think people get that Trump/Republicans are pro rich and racist and sexist?
If you reject the idea of external factors, then are you saying that the American people just prefer Fascist policies?
BeyondGeography
(39,345 posts)Stop being so passive. Demand more of your party.
TomCADem
(17,382 posts)Perhaps the problem is too many desktop warriors expecting someone else to carry their water. It reminds me of the Russians, er, progressives who said loudly and often that they were not going to vote some [neoliberal/corporatist/DINO] until Democrats delivered or until so and so actually received the nomination.
Demand more of your party? That suggests that Democrats are the opposition. Here is the Sane Progressive, over a year after the election, still blaming Democrats from the left despite the fact that Republicans hold all three branches of government:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxpfmCp2Z9VPTO7eWV6ebzQ
Yes, it is now clear that she is obviously a sock puppet, but prior to the election, she was often cited on this website as a progressive voice and critique. Perhaps rather than focusing on the Democrats, we should focus on those who truly oppose us.
BeyondGeography
(39,345 posts)than there is opposition to Republicans. And then there are the social justice purity threads, which routinely and thoughtlessly lump white liberals with white Republicans. So if you want to lecture about focus, maybe first look around you.
TomCADem
(17,382 posts)...and the alleged liberals that you claim that people on this Board trash?
Just wondering whether you can draw a principled distinction? Personally, there is such a thing as astroturf, and we need to identify them, rather than try to chase their alleged votes.
still_one
(92,061 posts)asiliveandbreathe
(8,203 posts)From the article..
Voters also are divided almost evenly over whether the country would be better off with the Democrats in control of Congress (31%) or with the GOP in charge (30%). A sizable 34% -- including nearly half of independent voters (48%) -- say it doesn't matter which party controls Congress.
Asiliveandbreathe....
OrlandoDem1
(73 posts)budkin
(6,698 posts)Trump's approval numbers are up as well.
Crowman2009
(2,490 posts)Russian or otherwise.
DownriverDem
(6,226 posts)I find that so hard to believe.
budkin
(6,698 posts)Jedi Guy
(3,175 posts)It's really only his kooky base who are gung-ho about backing out of the deal. When gas hits $4 a gallon over the summer, they might begin to rethink the wisdom of ditching the deal. When their kids are getting mangled in a war with Iran, I'd like to think they'd recognize the mistake.
While I'm hopeful that the situation on the Korean peninsula will stabilize, the undesirable side effect could be that Trump gets another boost, since it happened on his watch. If that happens right before the midterms...
Just more evidence that we can't become complacent and that we have to get out the vote in November. If the GOP retains control of Congress, they'll probably get the chance to seat two more conservative justices on the SCOTUS, to say nothing of the other shenanigans they'll pull.
budkin
(6,698 posts)Just because it would "piss off liberals." These people are demented.
Jedi Guy
(3,175 posts)I'd like to think some of them will realize what they helped unleash on the world by supporting Trump, and regret it.
I'd also like to win the lottery and be built like the Rock, too. I suspect all these wishes are equally likely to come true.
Maxheader
(4,370 posts)twitches just slightly...if the tariffs slutpuppy
proposes go through. If consumer products
start going up...Lots can happen between
now and the elections...
DownriverDem
(6,226 posts)just made sure plane builders will be out of work big time. Iran ordered plans and will now get them from somewhere else. Also because of backing out of the Iran deal, gas is going to go up big time. This will not go over well.
sandensea
(21,596 posts)In foreign countries - particularly in Latin America - 'neoliberal' is very commonly used and widely understood.
It refers to characters pushing for pretty much the same things Republicans do: near-total deregulation for big business; but a police state for everyone else.
To use that term here in the U.S. just confuses most people - or worse: it gives right-wingers a convenient opening to refer to Democrats in those terms (Alex Jones already does, for example).
LanternWaste
(37,748 posts)Plenty of still-unfulfilled opportunities for the GOP to shoot themselves in the foot and illustrate who they actually are.
And they will. It's their version of golf.
elocs
(22,541 posts)this fall like it's a done deal. There's also a lot of attitude about wishing and hoping for something to happen mean it will and then when it doesn't turn out as hoped there is wailing and gnashing of teeth, finger pointing, and conspiracies.
In the end when there's nothing left to be done, then those on the Left must still turn out to vote and in record numbers to get even one of the houses of Congress to flip to Democratic control.
DownriverDem
(6,226 posts)means squat.
GeorgeGist
(25,311 posts)angrychair
(8,678 posts)I just busted into full-blown laughter, so hard I choked myself up, when i read this post.
Gallows humor gets me i guess...
Doodley
(9,036 posts)lack of effectual opposition. Micheal Avenatti is doing more to oppose Trump than our own elected representatives.
angrychair
(8,678 posts)For that matter
Doodley
(9,036 posts)program and Obamacare. I'm from the UK and if it was the policy to take away healthcare from the poor and from children, it would be front page news,. The media would be outraged. Here, they don't give a damn. They mostrly let Trump and the GOP devastate people's lives and don't even mention it.
MyOwnPeace
(16,917 posts)the Dems MUST get Avenatti on board and use him as their attack dog!
DAMN, he's good!
Doodley
(9,036 posts)MyOwnPeace
(16,917 posts)I agree - unity in the trenches with our congressmen & congresswomen!!
John Fante
(3,479 posts)West fucking Virginia.
We're going to kick Repuke ass in November.
MyOwnPeace
(16,917 posts)to hear that. And Killer Blankenship was kicked to the curb.
Way to go, West Virginia!!!!
Let's hope that THIS is the true pulse of what's happening........................
RandySF
(58,472 posts)Marthe48
(16,898 posts)President Obama's policies kept them low, in spite of his personal preference for higher prices to protect the environment by reducing carbon emissions, and the oil market was glutted for years. Remember, even in 2017?
trump's blunder bluster approach to anything is causing a stellar rise in prices at the pump. Let's make sure voters notice and remember that.
TomCADem
(17,382 posts)...yet with a whole propaganda operation called Fox News, Republicans are seen as stronger on gas prices.
Quemado
(1,262 posts)3Hotdogs
(12,323 posts)I, for one, am already tired of all this winning.
Maven
(10,533 posts)Zucker has turned the whole operation into a reality TV clown show. Their sole interest is in revving up the "horse race" narrative for ratings, so of course they will be touting close poll results whenever possible. Ignore them and GOTV in November!
Marthe48
(16,898 posts)scan the headlines here. I keep up with major themes. I am keeping my eye on the russian investigation and any money trails that might eventually bring down the trump traitor criminal ring. Although by this point, I'm wondering if it'll be after that bastard is dead, or if I am.
I am angry that so many "journalists" chose to splatter tripe all over the tv for years, and allowed his lies and his lifestyle to become mainstream. So by this time, I don't watch any news. I get fed up watching MSNBC too, because they laugh and chuckle when something unbelievable happens. Our country was taken over by an enemy and we are living in an occupied nation. And in the end, it was so damned easy for the ruskies to do
I had a subscription to WaPo, for a year, but I've signed in less than 10 times over the last year and I'm not renewing.
A little closer to the general election, I'll make some contributions.
bronxiteforever
(9,287 posts)Because of Cheeto, I wont trust anything until election night is over.
Cheetos skill in screwing things up mean that nothing is set until the last news cycle is over.
I think we are in good shape and we are motivated. But after 2016, I will wait until the votes are in.
beachbum bob
(10,437 posts)As more seats are moving towards democrats every week...
bucolic_frolic
(43,044 posts)It's easy to rile up the base by being anti-Trump. Selling it to independents involves policy. But we get no press coverage. Maintaining anger for 22 months is not easy either.
MFM008
(19,803 posts)I wont believe ANY polls until November 6.
BlueDog22
(366 posts)We are evenly split between Democrat-Republican-Independent. The group that is most enthusiastic to turn out usually wins. If there is high enthusiasm for the Democrats, they turn out. If there is high enthusiasm for the Republicans, they turn out.
Trump won through a strategy of "High T, low P" which means high Trump support but low probability of turnout. He literally turned out voters that usually don't vote. It was a one trick pony. Many of them are probably going to stay home. Many of the establishment Republicans are turned off. This will lead to some Democratic victories.
Thekaspervote
(32,705 posts)BlueDog22
(366 posts)doc03
(35,295 posts)North Korea the house won't flip. Just my opinion.
John Fante
(3,479 posts)riversedge
(70,077 posts)Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)been kneecapped and by the fall it will show. Trump sucks. Already there are layoffs in autos...the first to feel any coming recession.
gay texan
(2,435 posts)videohead5
(2,165 posts)Need to run on protecting Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid...it's well known the Rethugs want to pay for their tax cuts that mostly went to the rich by cutting Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid.there are other things they can run on like a higher minimum wage.
Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)lancelyons
(988 posts)If the voters think the GOP will do better than that's how it will be. I am still amazed that I don't see democrat messaging except steyer. I see some GOP pacs throwing around their message. I think democrats are content to let trump eff it up or I guess win it. No strategy from dems.
Mc Mike
(9,111 posts)that change.
The polls are creating public opinion, not reflecting it.
It's like C.S. Lewis's Silver Chair.
Civic Justice
(870 posts)Last edited Thu May 10, 2018, 01:40 PM - Edit history (2)
It goes to show the ideology within America loves belligerence, whether its stomping around internationally or domestically, and society has become again, one that "worships the wealthy" and relegate their lives and that of their offspring's to frameworks of "SERFDOM". It's likely not as odd as it seems, when one considers a nation that spent 100's of yrs upholding slavery and another 100 yrs promoting segregation and the tone and mentality of Jim Crow Ideals swept the country and infected communities from one coast to the next.
The mindset among white America spent the bulk of its history supporting this madness for the sake of fictional self elation and thinking in delusional terms of being superior to others, and purely negligent that this nation was built by immigrant labor and much of it was propelled to its wealth by slave labor.
The long history of a promoted madness that America belonged to "white people only", since early in its inception, and then the craziness of Dredd Scott vs Sanford a Decision proclaiming who could not be an American.
A mass of semi educated society of people who grew up on learning a tainted version of history, and over the past generation the disregard to teach "true and honest Civics Educations, it is no wonder this nation perpetuate the ignorance that composed its own past.
People have sit idle with a hope that the wealthy will dominate congress and with a vain hope that the wealthy will care for the masses. Politicians are elected far too much on radicalism and policies based on racist premise; which detest he idea of American tax money being spent fairly to respect and care to protect ALL American people. This is the legacy of a nation bred on Prejudices and Enslavement for the want of free labor and white dominant control. We live today with a Buffoon of the same mentality as that of the Old Time Slaver System of the Confederate Ideals, and in much of white America, the ideals of that past linger, and the reverberation of "Jim Crow Teachings" still to this very day infects the minds, the concepts and the policy ideals of a great many of white america.
Sadly, truths are often denied. The history tells a great deal... and with the vast difference in what is the Republican Party and What is the Democratic Party continues to tell of American's historical past.
We have far too many Right Leaning Democrats who are legacy taught in ideals from the past, where the hold of Jim Crow influenced and dominated that influence in Southern States. Then, there is the ones who stand in the middle who in some parts still support the ideals of the Old Southern madness, as two non leading parties, ready to swing to the right if it means clinging to the ideals of white privilege and back up and block the pathway if it concerns true equality, with their ideas firmly planted in retaining the structure of white power. As in life... "power never relinquish its want and stand of power"... it is only by the force and will of "Liberal and Equality Minded People" that bust up the history of policies and processes that have long been in place to promote white power ideals.
What we see is a Republican Party that is Unified, and the bonding mechanism is their want to fully retain "white power", and they take no reserve at promoting racist and pushing bigotry and bias, they hold back nothing, including a disregard for the laws and policies that were fought to change the madness over many decades, they will push to dominate the courts and assault the systems of Justice in every aspect.. this is the level of desperation to retain the ideal of white power and white dominance. Their ideal has remained the same, that the fruits of Democracy is to be reserved for "white people".
The Splintered Democratic party does not have the same unity premise, there are the Right Leaning Democrats, and the Middle of the Road Democrats and the More dedicated to Equality and Equilibrium Left center Democrats. Each with different ideals of support for full circle equality and equilibrium for the people.
A vast segment of this splinter will support many elements of the platform, until it reaches the point of diminishing the white privilege ideology factors, and then the appeasements come into play to consider aspects of the Republican Ideals, which is often seen in the right leaning, and some among the middle of the road types.
Many won't think deep enough to see the variables that bring splintering, but if they think deeply as to why and how their ideals were shaped, and trace it back... that is when the influences from the long history of Jim Crow teachings will and often do show up.
We're only 54 yrs beyond the Civil Rights Act of 1964... and in these 50 yrs, there are many who still live who were groomed in and during the Jim Crow Ideals and many lived as teens and some are second generation who were taught by people who were groomed in environments and communities that adhere to many ideals of Jim Crow Ideology. One would truly have to have interest to know what is and what composed the broad reaching ideas of Jim Crow Ideology, it touched every aspect of how life was shaped, and what was promoted in the mentality and social nature of what is American white society.
It has not been vanquished, as we continue to see indicators in the news on a daily basis, or discrimination, profiling, and bias and bigotry all across this land, not just in public merchant facilities but in other venues as well. It rages on some University Campuses, and in many many areas of society.
It tells a story in the Polling.... What people say on things, if and does turn out in some cases to be different as the numbers don't show to reflect the equality stand that many claim. These polls, however correct or incorrect, shows a near even split, which tells us... that in many many ways the reverberations of Jim Crow Ideology still is prevalent and has not met with the refraction to change the waves of mentality influences.
The viciousness of the Republican Electorate has no regard for an Olive Branch.... they see it as a sign of weakness. They rely on the "daily drama of the media" as they know, with fast changing new focus, that much they do will be appeased into society, as people focus only on the drama headlines of today, and incessant cycles of SELECTIVE AMNESIA become a tool they rely upon.
get the red out
(13,460 posts)Increases viewership.
Maxheader
(4,370 posts)How can an adult change from decency to decadence? I mean
what is the trigger that makes an individual, thats just slightly
informed..switch alliances to the right?