We have 12 years to limit climate change catastrophe, warns UN

[muriel_volestrangler]

Source: The Guardian

The world’s leading climate scientists have warned there is only a dozen years for global warming to be kept to a maximum of 1.5C, beyond which even half a degree will significantly worsen the risks of drought, floods, extreme heat and poverty for hundreds of millions of people.

The authors of the landmark report by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released on Monday say urgent and unprecedented changes are needed to reach the target, which they say is affordable and feasible although it lies at the most ambitious end of the Paris agreement pledge to keep temperatures between 1.5C and 2C.

The half-degree difference could also prevent corals from being completely eradicated and ease pressure on the Arctic, according to the 1.5C study, which was launched after approval at a final plenary of all 195 countries in Incheon in South Korea that saw delegates hugging one another, with some in tears.

“It’s a line in the sand and what it says to our species is that this is the moment and we must act now,” said Debra Roberts, a co-chair of the working group on impacts. “This is the largest clarion bell from the science community and I hope it mobilises people and dents the mood of complacency.”



Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/08/global-warming-must-not-exceed-15c-warns-landmark-un-report

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Analysis from experts here: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/10/ipcc-special-report-on-1-5oc/

Report links:
The press release
Frequently Asked Questions
The Summary For Policy Makers (SPM)
The full report

The SR15 has defined 1.5ºC as the warming from the period 1850-1900. This is 2.7ºF and about 1/3rd of an ice age unit (the amount of warming from the depths of the last ice age 20,000 years ago to the mid-19th Century).

This baseline is not really “pre-industrial”, and there have been some interesting discussions on what that phrase might be usefully defined as (Hawkins et al ,2017; Mann et al, 2017), but this baseline is the easiest to adopt since estimates of climate impacts are being based on climate models from CMIP5 which effectively use that same baseline. The timing of projected impacts is a little sensitive to definitional issues with the “global mean” temperature, and whether the instrumental record is biased with respect to changes in the mean – particularly in the earlier part of the record when the data is relatively sparse.

At current rates, we’ll hit 1.5ºC on a decadal-average basis by ~2040. The first year above 1.5ºC will occur substantially earlier, likely associated with a big El Niño event in the late 2020s/early 2030s.

[Maxheader]

1. We have terrorists after us that don't like our decadent lifestyle...

As a huge contributor to the global warming event, imho...we
will have terrorists after us that blame us for their country's
droughts and floods..

[bucolic_frolic]

2. It's way past the point of no return already

Economic activity leads to more economic activity. It's not going to slow down even if economies stop growing.

[ouija]

3. No way

We can stop this, we still have a large percent of the population who don’t believe it is real. Just ask NC.

[ffr]

5. .

We can stop this, we still have...

We can, but we won't. In fact, our current governmental structure assures it for at least the next 2+ years, we're doing everything we possible can to do just the opposite. And without leadership and a roadmap to achieve any sort of progress, "stopping it" is a pipe dream.

No, instead, this is what's going to happen. It's going to get worse and in orders of magnitude worse and those millions or billions of people that are going to be affected will be affected alright. They're going to be dead, either due to crop failure and drought or because of attrocities over fresh water. The reality is the horror that's coming.

[CrispyQ]

9. I think the subject line was to be included. No way

we can stop this.

That's how I read it anyway. We are so toast & most people are clueless about what's coming down the pike.

[Kurt V.]

13. you didn't read that correctly

[ffr]

23. Which way was I suppose to read it?

?

[Javaman]

6. also population growth globally...

more over: as India and China (now the largest emitter of CO2 and not slowing down) continue to grow and develop into first world status, pollution will only increase.

I believe that the 12 year projects is nothing but a pipe dream. That estimate is based on the concept that we start right now, this minute; not ramp up.

as models for climate change continue to get refined as more and more data is confirmed, I think it will be more like 2024 if we are "lucky".

[The_jackalope]

8. In fact, economies would need to be drastically reduced to have any effect.

An 80% drop in global economic output over the next 20 years might result in CO2 emissions going down enough that natural processes could eventually catch up and begin stabilizing atmospheric CO2 levels.

This is because economic output and energy use are so closely tied, and 85% of our energy consumption/economic output is driven by fossil fuels.

Who is going to elect governments that would enforce that kind of economic catastrophe? People will elect liars instead.

[The Mouth]

14. I know not of, nor can really even imagine

any politician who would say they intended to reduce economic activity. At all. Of any party (except 'Green'). In any country.

Quality of life is pretty much directly related to the amount of energy consumed, as far as the metrics used in most of the world go; the bigger picture or rendering same uninhabitable doesn't enter the picture whatsoever in any voting booth on the planet.

Even my neighbors who support marriage equality, LGBTQ rights, gun control and make mouth noises about the environment want an existence which is pretty much analogous to using more power and resources, even if driving a hybrid car and recycling are part of their lifestyle.

Just an observation, not an opinion, I may be wrong (and often am).

[The_jackalope]

15. "Degrowth" is an absolute taboo subject in civilization at large.

Whether it's in population (cut the number of people by 80%), or economic activity (everyone take an 80% cut in income) the scale of the problem is out of reach of any feasible scale of solution, and even moving incrementally towards real solutions is prevented by the degrowth taboo.

[OnlinePoker]

19. Every candidate in my coming municipal election is left-leaning

Every one of them, in their write-ups this weekend in the paper, said they were pro-development. Some of them couched it in the term "smart" development, but they still want to bring in more people and business and turn what was a nice, quiet (and inexpensive) area close to the regional center into another traffic congested, noisy suburb. It looks like the wife and I will be moving next year.

[JudyM]

4. We should seize on this report as part of our GOTV messaging.

Our “angry mob” position should be a clarion call to protect the environment as well as the rights of women, POC, children, etc.
More thoughts about that here... https://www.democraticunderground.com/100211252134

[sandensea]

7. Which means it's already too late.

That would require a committed, all-hands-on-deck effort with every major player on the same page.

Big Awl will not only never go along with any such efforts, they'll probably double down on their efforts to sabotage it.

I certainly hope I'm wrong; but that's just the world.

[The_jackalope]

10. It's either far too late or it was not possible in the first place.

It may never have been possible because of the primary role that combustion fuels have always played in the growth of our civilization, which is at its heart simply a thermodynamic heat engine.

[The_jackalope]

11. And BECCS is a pipe dream... nt

[Tobin S.]

12. Cue the barrage of Republicans saying climate change is not caused by humans.

If they address this story at all.

[The_jackalope]

16. Here's a toast to all the filthy, stinking doomers

Who were right all along.

See y'all in hell.

[defacto7]

26. Yeah, we were.

[Cold War Spook]

17. We had a good run.

Actually, homo sapiens will not disappear. It might be a good thing for the species.

[defacto7]

27. Yes we will disappear. Genetically speaking we are

steadily on the way out. I've covered this subject too many times and I'm not game to do it again, but there you have it. We will be a pretty short lived unsuccessful species comparatively speaking.

[raccoon]

18. The federal government,and every state, should pass a law saying that we are not going to talk about

The federal government, and every state, should pass a law saying that we are not going to talk about this and it doesn’t exist anyway.

[Dave Starsky]

20. I once read a book called Timescape, by Gregory Benford.

Benford is a physics professor, so he based it as much as possible on what we knew about physics at the time. The book won a Nebula award in 1980.

In the book, the human race, and much of life on the planet, is in peril of imminent death due to an out-of-control algal bloom in the oceans. This turns out to be due to phosphates and other chemicals dumped in the sea over the last 40 years (the book takes place in 1998).

A British physicist has a brilliant idea: Sweep a high-powered tachyon beam at places the Earth has been over the last 50 years and put a Morse code message on it that describes the future danger and how to prevent it. Tachyons are particles that travel faster than light; therefore, they go backwards in time. Scientists started trying to detect these particles back in the '60s.

As there is literally no other choice, a huge effort is put into effect to get this project going...

Meanwhile, a humble, starving physics grad student in California, who is assigned to work on a project to detect the tachyon particle, is wondering why the results he's been seeing from his detector have suddenly become so crazy. The year is 1961.

I'm not going to spoil the ending. But I read the book in the early 1990s, and I've thought about it ever since. It has comforted me through many a horrible crisis.

[yurbud]

21. kick

[femmedem]

22. This is the most important story of our lives.

I find it depressing that even on a democratic message board, this post is drawing much less attention than a post about Taylor Swift.

No offense to Taylor Swift or that OP--just why can't this break through?

[Raine]

34. EXACTLY

I feel the same and it makes me livid the way this issue is not covered the way it should be but I guess the media is afraid of losing all their bucks from corporations, gas, oil etc.!

[NickB79]

24. The Doomsday Preppers were onto something

FWIW, I'll be spending the next 30 yr converting my land into a permaculture oasis to eventually give to my daughter (8 yr old now) so she and her family might have a snowball's chance in hell to survive what's coming.

[Dave Starsky]

25. The Doomsday Preppers ignore the fact that we are social animals.

We have always relied upon other people, and our interaction with them, for our very survival. We have even socialized dogs, who were once pack animals in the form of wolves, to help us with this.

[defacto7]

28. We've also spent most of our human existence

preying on our own species. Our social behavour is very local.

[NickB79]

31. Which is also why I'm actively seeking out social groups

I'm naturally an introvert, but I've started forcing myself to get to know my neighbors more, other parents from school, started attending church again, joined a local gardening group, etc. Forming a tribe of my own, so to speak.

There are a surprising number of educated, progressive adults even in my semi-rural neck of the woods. Many are concerned about climate change, but none seem to be horrified just yet. Over time, as they have their own awakenings to the shit bearing down on us, I hope we can work more closely together to help one another prepare.

So far things are going well, if in small steps. Learning skills from them, teaching skills to others. Sharing seeds and extra plants from my greenhouse, trading extra baby chicks with other farmers to prevent inbreeding in the flocks, learning basic carpentry, helping each other chop firewood, babysitting each other's kids, etc.

[California_Republic]

29. Start here

Start here

buy less meat, milk, cheese and butter and more locally sourced seasonal food - and throw less of it away • drive electric cars but walk or cycle short distances • take trains and buses instead of planes • use videoconferencing instead of business travel • use a washing line instead of a tumble dryer • insulate homes • demand low carbon in every consumer product

[The_jackalope]

32. Here are the actions I promote:

• Stay awake to what's happening around us, ecologically, environmentally, socially and politically.
  
• Don't get hung up by other people’s "shoulds and shouldn'ts".
  
• Occasionally re-examine your personal values. If they aren't in alignment with what you think the world needs, change them.
  
• Stop blaming people. Others are as much victims of the times as we are - even CEOs and politicians.
  
• Blame, anger and outrage are pointless. They waste precious energy that we will need for more useful work.
  
• Laugh a lot, at everything - including ourselves.
  
• Hold all the world's various beliefs and "isms" lightly, including our own.
  
• Forgive others. Forgive ourselves. For everything.
  
• Love everything just as deeply as you can.

These actions will help no matter what consumer choices you make.

[Delphinus]

35. Those are

pretty good. I thank you for sharing.

[clementine613]

30. Problem is that the Rethugs want to destroy the world.

They don't care if they die with the rest of us... just as long as the very last one of them can lord over the very last one of us.

[Raine]

33. I wish the media would

put their focus on this!