NBC/WSJ Poll: Democrats hold nine-point advantage for midterm elections

[DonViejo]

Source: NBC News




Two weeks out, Democrats retain an edge but "unprecedented enthusiasm" is fueling both parties.

by Mark Murray / Oct. 21, 2018 / 9:00 AM EDT

WASHINGTON — Fueled by increased enthusiasm from women, Latinos and young voters for the upcoming midterm election, Democrats hold a 9-point lead among likely voters over Republicans in congressional preference, according to the latest national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

But nearly two weeks before Election Day, the same poll also shows President Donald Trump at his highest job rating yet as president, as well as Republicans with their largest lead on the economy in the poll’s history. And in the most competitive House battlegrounds — many of which take place on traditionally Republican turf — congressional preference is tied.

“It’s a barnburner,” says Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who conducted the survey with Democratic pollster Fred Yang and Hart Research Associates.

Yang adds, “The current data shows that the Democratic advantage has ebbed but still with a large advantage. And the GOP shows some life.”



Read more: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/nbc-wsj-poll-democrats-hold-nine-point-advantage-midterm-elections-n922266

[smooth64]

1. Yep the Corporate media has to crate the horse race

I'm calling bullshit on his job approval all of a sudden going up just before the mid terms WTF!!! has he done to have his job approval sky rocket assault people. We now live in a fascist country.The break down in this polling makes no sense they have democrats leading among seniors which is unheard of but we only have a 9 point lead on the Congressional polling

[7962]

2. I bet its actually larger than that. People arent happy with the blowhard in charge. nt

[Honeycombe8]

3. That's not much, IMO. MOE is, what...4%? So we may be 5 pts ahead?

After what's been going on for two years?

Take nothing for granted. This seems a lot like 2016. Rusher won't like Dems winning.

[Johnyawl]

18. If the MOE is 4%...

...then we are somewhere between 5% and 13% ahead. With the voter suppression the republicans are engaged in we'll need all 13% to win.

I'll repeat what you said: TAKE NOTHING FOR GRANTED.

[Honeycombe8]

22. The article said 9 pt advantage. That makes 5 pt advantage, after MOE...

which is what my post said. But it's hard to put a number on these things. I guess we've learned THAT lesson.

As you say...Take nothing for granted. Drive, walk, or crawl to the polls. Beg a ride, if you have to. VOTE. I plan on it.

Wanna know how bad my paranoia is? I check on my registration online every few days to make sure it hasn't been mysteriously withdrawn.

[DownFromTheMountain]

4. My skepticism about Republican enthusiasm

Comes from a clear memory I have from the John McCain Campaign vs. Pres. Barack Obama..I had been paying attention to the campaign pretty regularly, and McCain was diving in the polls, and after a weekend I recall an article in the LA Times reporting that McCains numbers were turning around and his chances were improving rapidly..without any event or reason to explain it..and I've always carried that with me remembering that, if only that could happen for all of us..that things could dramatically "turn around" without any identifiable reason to point to..would be great wouldn't it?

[bucolic_frolic]

6. Republicans tried the Fake Stampede in 2008 and 2012

but voters were not buying it. Trump was more a stealth erosion married to election fraud and social media mind manipulation

[Cosmocat]

9. McCain is not Trump

I have been telling people this for over a year - he is going to bring more of his people to a mid term than past incumbents.

Rs by and large really didn't really like McCain.

He just wasn't BHO.

They LOVE this scumbag, and he knows how to crank them up.

[bucolic_frolic]

5. Throw the Bums OUT!

We need a late surge of discontent to eject these Pretenders

[Cicada]

7. Predictit gives repubs one third chance of keeping the house

Nate silver in his classic model, he has lite, classic, deluxe models, he gives repubs one in six. I guess we shouldn’t be too surprised either way. I have read betting markets outperform polls. So I would expect the true odds closer to one in three than one in six. One in four happens a lot. Too close for comfort.

[William Seger]

15. Good odds: Buy "Republicans no" at $0.63 instead of "Democrats yes" at $0.67

I'll be using my winnings for a fantastic drunk!

[Cicada]

21. I remember Michelle explained that Barach plays the long game

So I am pretty serene. I think the long game will pretty soon wipe repubs away. If not now pretty soon. 2020? too soon maybe. But 2024 a third or more of angry old white guys will have been replaced by younger people. We will get universal health care. We can rent cars per trip then instead of owning them, save a ton of money. Block chain will cut the 20% of our national income drained by finance companies to 15%, headed to 10. Be calm. Be happy. Trump is just a temporary temporary problem.

[Progressive Jones]

24. The neutering of the GOP will be complete after the 2022 election cycle.

You are correct that Trump is temporary, but he has emboldened the crazies. Who knows what those flakes are truly capable of?

Still, I have hope. Here are my predictions.

The GOP caucus in the Senate will be reduced by 12-15 members by the close of the 2022 elections. GOP 'moderates' will fall in line with the Dems on many issues, mainly out of fear.
There will have been a Dem in the WH since Jan. 2020.
The Dems will hold a majority in the House as of Jan. 2019. That majority will grow over the next two elections.

Unless the GOP pulls of the biggest election fraud they've ever attempted., or Trump and/or his Worshiping Droolers do some kind of crazy, violent shit that will disrupt the nation and our elections.

[Tobin S.]

8. I think we should ignore the polls.

Campaign hard no matter what the polls say.

[a kennedy]

19. Damn right.....I was so high on the first woman president........

[JudyM]

10. 9 point spread among seniors looks good.

[Progressive Jones]

25. I'm nearly 60. Not sure if that makes me a senior, but the older people in my universe

can't stand what's going on. At least 2/3rds of them are long time Republicans. NONE voted for Trump. Some even stayed home last time, as they felt it was a circus.
They hate Trump, and they are rapidly turning on the GOP.
They fight like cats and dogs with Trump supporters.
Many are veterans who feel like they've been shit upon.
They truly are concerned about the futures of their grandchildren, but not for the reasons that the GOP told them to be.

They Will All Be Voting This Time.

[Scurrilous]

11. K&R

[Polybius]

12. This is great news, because I'd bet that they over-sampled Republicans

There's no way Trump's approval rating could be that high, so we're probably leading Congress by 12-15 points.

From the article:

TRUMP’S JOB RATING REACHES NEW HIGH
Trump’s job rating among registered voters stands at 47 percent approve, 49 percent disapprove — up from 44 percent approve, 52 percent disapprove a month ago.

[Progressive Jones]

26. Good News, but take nothing for granted. nt

[DeminPennswoods]

28. Approval adds strongly and somewhat categories

That's why Trump's "approval" looks better. The reality is his "strongly approve" (30%) and "strongly disapprove" (43%) numbers have not moved much at all showing Americans who detest Trump significantly outnumber those who don't.

Of course adding the two categories makes the election more of a "horse race" for ratings purposes.

The sample was conservative leaning based on the self-identified responses to the question of "do you consider yourself conservative, moderate, liberal, etc?" The self-identified left/center left made up 25% of respondents and the rw/center right made up 34%.

[groundloop]

13. This number doesn't take gerrymandered districts into account

Sure, we might have a 9 percent advantage nationwide, but gerrymandered districts are going to make it more difficult to wrest control of Congress from the right wing. Don't lose sight of the fact that Hillary won by over 3 MILLION votes yet the electoral college was tilted in Tiny's favor.

GET OUT THE VOTE !!!!!!!

[shanny]

14. with gerrymandering and voter suppression it may not be enough

but it better be

[a kennedy]

20. and it's absolutely barbaric that we are EVEN talking about voter suppression

[Stuart G]

16. Things will be far worse for Republicans than this projects..Why?

Trump supporting Saudi murderers ...that's why.

[sinkingfeeling]

17. Not good enough. Should be 15 to 25 points.

[DeminPennswoods]

23. Reading the details in the poll memo,

the 49-47 Trump disapproval is a bit misleading as it combines very positive+somewhat positive and very negative + somewhat negative. The real story is in the "very" responses where 43% is very negative and 30% is very positive toward Trump. That shows a real intensity gap, imho.

At the end is the question on how respondents identify themselves which is 25% left/center left and 34% right/center right. That leads me to believe the poll leans somewhat to the right.

The memo states the generic ballot is tied in battleground races, but it gives no quantification of what these "battleground" districts are or who the respondents were. Presumably, they are part of the poll respondents, but the MOE must be pretty high for these subsets.

[chillfactor]

27. After 2016....

I have little faith in the polls.....I will wait and see the results on election night.

[mahina]

29. What the hell? 9 points up from the party burning the country down?

????