Latest Poll: Ned Lamont, Bob Stefanowski Locked in Dead Heat

[George II]

Source: Hartford Courant

Christopher Keating

With only two weeks left before election day, Democrat Ned Lamont and Republican Bob Stefanowski are locked in a dead heat in the gubernatorial race, according to the latest poll.

Lamont holds a lead of 3.4 percentage points, but the margin of error in the Sacred Heart University/Hearst Connecticut Media poll is 4.3 percentage points.

The survey of likely voters showed 39.5 percent for Lamont, 36.1 percent for Stefanowski, and 8.4 percent for independent Oz Griebel of Hartford. Another 15 percent said they were unsure and 1 percent said someone else — meaning that those 16 percent of voters could decide the race.

The poll shows a huge gender gap with women strongly supporting Lamont and men favoring Stefanowski. Overall, Lamont had support from 50 percent of women, compared to 25 percent for Stefanowski. Among men, Stefanowski leads by 47 percent to 29 percent.

Read more: http://www.courant.com/politics/elections/hc-pol-poll-dead-heat-lamont-stefanowski-20181023-story.html

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The Hartford Courant, now a right-leaning publication, has been lowballing Ned Lamont's lead. Some polls have him ahead by 8-9%. RealClear Politics has Lamont ahead by 8.5%

[dsc]

1. As a math teacher this just appalls me

No, these people are not tied. They are not in a dead heat. Lamont has a small lead that is statistically insignificant at the 95% level. It would be significant at a lower level of confidence (my guess would be somewhere in the 60%'s). I could figure out the exact level but am too busy right now. This isn't rocket science for crying out loud.

[NewJeffCT]

2. This is a new poll

the other polls mentioned in RCP were from the beginning of October, the middle of September and August.

With all the negative ads out there from outside GOP groups, I think it's had an effect on Lamont.

The Courant has always been right-leaning in terms of editorials - it was national news that they endorsed Obama over McCain in 2008 - I think they had only endorsed one other Democrat in the past century or so before that.

[George II]

4. Growing up in NYC, I'd always heard it referred to as the "liberal Hartford Courant", and...

....even when I moved here 30 years ago (it was going to be "temporary", but that's another whole story) I heard republicans bashing it as left-wing biased. It's obviously not that today, if it was ever.

[Iliyah]

3. Interesting . . .

When reporting on Democrats it's usually, tied, dead heat, slightly ahead, barely ahead, not far ahead, et al.

Opposite of GOPers where it's usually, ahead . . . .

Never fails.