NBC News/WSJ poll: 2020 race will be uphill for Trump, but he has strong party loyalty

[DonViejo]

Source: NBC News



NBC News/WSJ poll finds President Trump facing headwinds on Russia investigation and border wall but bolstered by strong GOP support and a good economy.

March 3, 2019, 9:01 AM EST
By Mark Murray

WASHINGTON — A year and a half before the 2020 presidential election, President Donald Trump faces formidable obstacles in his bid for re-election, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

Just four in 10 voters say they would re-elect him next year; 58 percent don’t think he’s been honest and truthful regarding the Russia probe; and 60 percent disapprove of his recent national emergency declaration to build a border wall. But Democrats who want to defeat Trump have hurdles of their own. The president's job rating remains stable with nearly 90 percent of Republicans approving of his job. And a majority of Americans remain confident in the economy, believing that there won’t be a recession in the next year.

Add it up, and 2020 is shaping up to be yet another close presidential race, say the Democratic and Republican pollsters who conducted the NBC/WSJ survey.

“It’s a 45-55 against the president at this stage of the game,” said Democratic pollster Peter Hart.



Read more: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/nbc-news-wsj-poll-2020-race-will-be-uphill-trump-n978331?cid=public-rss_20190303

[no_hypocrisy]

1. Party loyalty wasn't enough in 2016 and it won't be enough in 2020.

I'm not convinced Russia can pull off the same feat now that too many people are expecting it.

[Dennis Donovan]

5. Trump supporters still believe the shit the russian troll farms was shoveling...

...even after they've been told they'd been had. Facebook Trump supporters are particularly susceptible.

[getagrip_already]

24. sure they can - at least in terms of

Voter suppression and disenfranchisement.

There is ample evidence that russian operatives penetrated voter registration databases. They had precinct level knowledge of voters. They removed enough specific people from the voting rolls to impact election results. It took fewer than 100 registered dems in some districts. This not only threw it to trump, it threw it to lot of gop congressional candidates as well.

NOTHING has changed to stop them in 2020. If anything, state gop operatives have taken on the tasks and there will be more fronts to defend.

They were quiet in 2018, probably because trump wasn't on the ballot and it suited their interests to let the dems take back the house; it increases chaos. But they will be back. And they will be effective. Lets hope not effective enough.

The guards will have all been sent home. The power will be out. Be ready for it.

[Iliyah]

2. 2016 the elections were stolen . . .

2020 - stop them from stealing it again. We have the numbers, they have the ability to cheat, steal and voter suppression with no shame.

Stop them.

[still_one]

3. Maybe, maybe not. It depends on how many red and purple states we can capture because of the way

the electoral college is setup

[oldsoftie]

7. I dont think Trump is ahead in any of the 3 states that won him the election.

And i dont think its close either.
But beware overconfidence and over reaching.

[getagrip_already]

27. he wasn't ahead in 2016 either......

The results were a surprise. Mostly because the level of cheating and suppression wasn't reflected in the polling. In a lot of cases, it doesn't even make sense statistically.

The election was stolen. It can be stolen again.

It won't show up ahead of time. You can't look at his support and make a prediction. It won't be counted that way.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

8. Once Bernie takes the White House and he leads the Democratic Party to take the Senate...

the Electoral College goes bye bye!!


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[still_one]

18. I am sure with Nina Turner, Hilllary supporters are just chomping at the bit to vote for him in the

Democratic primary 2020

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

21. Bernie has the support OF THE PEOPLE cuz he's FOR THE PEOPLE!! That's all Bernie needs.

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[still_one]

23. You want to push your SPECIFIC CANDIDATE, do over in the primary forum where it is suppossed to be

This is the LBN, and it isn't about a specific candidate

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

25. Just responding to the comments HERE... you made similar comments, so I responded to you too.

But, I'm happy to meet you over there.


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[still_one]

26. My comment was made in response to you pushing the primary specific candidate stuff here

Except in mostly general comment over there, I don't spend much time over there

As things get closer, and the debates and expose various candidates that will change for me.

I haven't seen others pushing a candidate in this thread, though admittedly I may have missed it

but let's be honest, you know this will get partisan among various candidate's supporters, which is why I am voicing what I am

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

54. That's fine... have a good evening. Peace.

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[still_one]

58. Same to you

[getagrip_already]

28. well, he has the support of putin.....

and he is taking advantage of it.

You don't get to help putin win in 2016 and then expect support in 2020. Don't try to speak for the people. You don't. You speak for yourself.

[cstanleytech]

37. You mean he has the support of "some" of the people just like the other

candidates running for the office will have the support of some the question is which one will win enough support? Even then winning the majority does not guarantee a victory as Hillary beat Trumps ass like a drum by around 3 million more votes but she did not win the office.

[treestar]

56. If he does not win the nomination

will the "rigging" accusations start up again?

He has many more opponents this time and they won't go easy on him like Hillary did.

[oldsoftie]

29. Well, he'll have to change the Constitution to accomplish that, not just take the Senate

[Perseus]

13. Begs the question, once again

Why is it that Democrats are not working on getting rid of the Electoral College? Majority should decide who they want for president, not a bunch of partisan people...what gives them the right to decide the future of the country? They have obviously made terrible decisions many times.

[SansACause]

14. That would require a constitutional amendment.

And the flyover states aren't going to ratify it because it presently gives them an abnormally outsized influence on the presidential election. What might could be done is work to split the electoral votes instead of the current "winner take all" situation, but again most states that would do that are already in Democratic control, so that would just help the Republicans. I don't see much way out of this except that maybe the 2020 census will reallocate congress member from the red states that are losing population to the blue ones that are growing.

[WinstonSmith4740]

17. Actually, there's an easier way.

And we're already more than half way there. We can't wait for the normal Constitutional Amendment route. 2016 is the 5th time (I think) this has happened. It's screwed Democrats twice since just 2000. This can be done by 2020, but it's up to us to contact our assembly people and demand it happen. This link will give you all you need.

https://www.nationalpopularvote.com/written-explanation

[still_one]

20. I don't see any red states signing on to that

[getagrip_already]

33. they don't have to.....

All it takes is states totaling up to 270 EV's. Red states cover a lot of sq miles, but not a lot of EV's. It will take all the blue states and some purple ones.

But even if it falls short, there is always the chance the person winning the popular vote would also win some states that don't sign on, and won't have won some state that did. So every state helps.

It's doable, but difficult.

[still_one]

36. Technically that is true, but if you look at those so-called swing states either have republican

Governors or legislators, and I doubt it would get passed in those states, at least in time for the 2020 election for sure

[getagrip_already]

41. I agree, but we can still use it....

To put them into a corner. The more unhinged republicans are already being quoted as saying that getting rid of the EC will mean white votes won't count any more.

That's ridiculous, and we can use that. To defeat those republicans... We wouldn't get them to say dumb shit like that without the possibility we can achieve this.

[still_one]

45. Sure, absolutely

[Polybius]

44. It MIGHT be unConstitutional though

Article 1, Section 10:

No State shall enter into any Treaty, Alliance, or Confederation; grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal; coin Money; emit Bills of Credit; make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts; pass any Bill of Attainder, ex post facto Law, or Law impairing the Obligation of Contracts, or grant any Title of Nobility.No State shall, without the Consent of the Congress, lay any Imposts or Duties on Imports or Exports, except what may be absolutely necessary for executing it’s [sic] inspection Laws: and the net Produce of all Duties and Imposts, laid by any State on Imports or Exports, shall be for the Use of the Treasury of the United States; and all such Laws shall be subject to the Revision and Controul of the Congress.No State shall, without the Consent of Congress, lay any Duty of Tonnage, keep Troops, or Ships of War in time of Peace, enter into any Agreement or Compact with another State, or with a foreign Power, or engage in War, unless actually invaded, or in such imminent Danger as will not admit of delay.

[marylandblue]

49. It don't think it is unconstitutional because it isn't an agreement between states

It's called a compact, but no document is signed, it's just actions of individual state legislatures.

Article 2 Section 1 says:

"Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress"

There's not even a popular vote requirement, and at the beginning, a lot of states didn't vote. It's just that every state, except one or two, has now chosen to award all their electors to the winner of the popular vote in their state. There is nothing to stop the state from choosing electors some other way.

[Polybius]

60. It would be guaranteed to go to the courts no matter what happens

It does say in the Constitution though that no state shall "enter into any Agreement or Compact with another State." If that doesn't apply to "compact," is there anything stopping a state with a Republican governor (like Florida) from changing their mind because they like the Republican better? Imagine Trump wins again (and again loses the vote, but this time by 7 million), but just 10 EV's. All of the states in the compact already voted for the Democrat, except FL who put Trump over the edge.

Besides the way I mentioned, there are also other questions of its legality. Can (for example) FL switch to Democrat if its electors vote for a Republican? Even if it's not un-Constitutional, can it still be illegal on other grounds?

Can a federal judge just toss this out, saying it tampers with the EC? I have no idea, and would love to hear all opinions.

What happens if only Blue states enter this pact, and in 2028 VP Beto O'Rourke wins the EC against Ted Cruz, but loses the popular vote because of an Indy? So NY and CA have to vote for Cruz? Eww.

[marylandblue]

62. Yes, it will certainly be litigated, but it doesn't matter what you call it

It's not a formal binding agreement, so IMO it passes the first hurdle.

The second hurdle would be if a state tried to change the outcome by changing the rules after the fact. My guess would be no. Think of the current system. Suppose a state has a Republican legislature and governor, but the people of the state vote for a Democratic president. Can the legislature change the rules and override the popular vote before the electors meet. There is nothing in the Constitution or any law that says they can't, but I think almost everyone would find that totally unconscionable, so I don't think it would work.

Law isn't always about the letter of the law, especially when there is no letter to follow. But if almost everyone intuitively thinks something is wrong, there is a good chance a judge would think so too.

[oldsoftie]

31. What red states are losing residents to blue states?

I would bet my red state is going to GAIN a seat if not more. But then we're not BOLD red either.

[SansACause]

61. Mississippi for one.

Mississippi has a net population loss over the last few years. Texas is showing growth, but not many others--certainly not at the rate that blue states are growing. So it could be that Mississippi loses a seat and it goes to Texas. Just depends on what the census looks like in 2020.

[oldsoftie]

65. After looking it up, 2 red states lost pop, 3 blue states lost pop. "Purple" not included.

Mississippi & Louisiana lost, as did NY, Ct & IL.
And contrary to what many on the right think, CA increased population. They always like to say everyone is fleeing.

[still_one]

19. because it requires a Constitutional Amendment, and the red states will not go for that

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

22. Don't worry, Bernie 's got this...

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[getagrip_already]

35. bernie is irrelevant.....

A single senator can't accomplish this, and a potus can't accomplish it, nor would a potus try. It's just not a priority once you win.

But he is past his time; not that he ever had one. He is a loser. Not cut out for potus any more than trump is.

[oldsoftie]

64. Ouch!

[rpannier]

4. Party Loyalty May Be High

My question would be, "How many republikkans quit the party because of him, thus raising that percentage?" I can identify one in office hecause he beat putin's guy for Congress.

[oldsoftie]

9. I think that number is higher than we might think.

i have read a lot of FB posts from people who were all in for trump & now they cannot stand him. They may not vote Democrat, but they may stay home.

[oldsoftie]

6. Party loyalty doesnt win elections; Independent voters do. nt

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

11. Precisely!! Why Bernie is going to decimate the Liar-in-Chief in 2020!!

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[marylandblue]

10. 45-55 are not the odds I want to see. Too close for comfort.

Don't get complacent.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

12. We won't make that mistake again!!

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[Ferrets are Cool]

32. I said that same exact sentence after 4 year of bush Jr

As history shows, I was dead wrong. Elections were stolen then, in 2016, and will be stolen again unless our system is overhauled and I do not see any evidence of that.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

38. I hear ya... have yet to see the implementation of any significant changes.

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[still_one]

34. You are right to be concerned mary. The weighting of red states in the electoral college is

just one of the reasons, which national polls do not factor in very well.

Another thing, there is a long way to go, and a lot can happen.

Even ignoring foreign interferance, third party participation can contirubute to an adverse outcome

[WinstonSmith4740]

15. I really think the "strong party loyality" thing won't help him.

His approval by Rethugs may be solid, but it's a larger percentage of a smaller pool. The GOP has been shedding members since he took over, and has pretty much lost the next generation.

snip:
"But it is the graying of the Republican coalition that is arguably the biggest threat to the party’s prospects. It is true that on average, older people are more reliable voters than younger people. But the partisan identities and voting behaviors that people adopt early in the life cycle tend to stick, becoming routines that people carry on for the remainder of their lives. In addition, according to Data for Progress research, 30 percent of millennial Republicans prefer the Republican Party over Mr. Trump “somewhat” or “strongly,” while 65 percent prefer Mr. Trump “somewhat” or “strongly” (compared with 80 percent of boomer Republicans and 81 percent of so-called silent Republicans)."

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/16/opinion/sunday/trump-youth-vote.html

[Lonestarblue]

16. Trump could be re-elected with same tactics as 2016.

As Republican efforts in the NC House race show, Republicans will use any tactic, legal or otherwise, to win. Ohio and other Republican-run states have been purging voters since 2016. Texas just recently tried to claim that nearly a hundred thousand voters committed fraud. The truth was that those voters had become naturalized citizens before they voted.

The Brennan Center reported last year that over 4 million voters were purged between 2014 and 2016, with a majority of them from just three states: Florida,Georgia, and North Carolina. People of color were a majority of those purged. And the purges have been stepped up since 2016.

Hillary Clinton won the popular by less than 4 million votes, so imagine millions more Democrtic voters purged from voting rolls by 2020. Add the dirty tricks, like closing voting locations in minority communities or moving them to an inconvenient location at the last minute, and the refusal to invest in functioning voting machines (black precincts in Detroit), and you beginnto see a path to a Trump win. Republicans will also do everything they can to ensure holding on to the Senate, so I expect outright cheating with the assistance of programming voting machines. No recounts are allowed to actually see the programs aggregating vote counts. They’re easy to manipulate just enough to win. And then there’s the possibility of vote flipping. Here in Texas, 70 counties have voting machines that flipped straight-ticket votes for all Democrats to Ted Cruz only for the US Senate race. The same issue has happened in past elections, but the Republican Sec. of State just says it’s voter error and does nothing because it benefits them.

I expect great cheating by Republicans in 2020. I just wish we could do something now to prevent it. Otherwise, we have four more years of Trump and the total destruction of our country. I know we’re all hoping that Mueller and/or the SDNY will help us get rid of Trump, but what if they don’t?

[Ferrets are Cool]

30. And the ability to CHEAT

[getagrip_already]

39. remember, 90% of registered republins is only 20% of registered voters.....

Republicans only make up about 22% of the electorate. They have been hemorrhaging party affiliation for years. Dems only make up about 26%. The rest are indies (no party affiliation).

So while support of his party is important, it isn't the whole ball of wax. His real overall number is probably in the high 30's. But that is when you ask someone a question in a poll, not what they will think when/if they go to vote.

But with the EC, it takes on even less meaning. Ever CA voter could vote D and we wouldn't get one more EV than if 51% did. It comes down to a few thousand votes in each of a handful of states.

Don't sweat the percentages. Sweat the actual votes in the actual states.

[Polybius]

59. So you're saying that 52% of registered voters are Independent?

I find that hard to believe.

[getagrip_already]

67. not necessarily independent...

just not republican or dem. Look it up. Easy to google.

[mr_liberal]

40. Being a SOCIALIST or over 75 are the LEAST DESIRABLE characteristic presidential candidate

75% have Total reservations/very uncomfortable with socialism. Only 25% are Total enthusiastic/comfortable.

And regarding socialism, just 18 percent of all Americans say they view the term positively, versus 50 percent who see it in a negative light.

The numbers for capitalism are almost the exact opposite: 50 percent positive, 19 percent negative.

[SWBTATTReg]

42. Damn right it is going to be uphill for him. Everyone I talk to now just shakes their head at ...

rump and antics. What can one say otherwise? He's going to be wiped out. Repug numbers are down, indep. numbers are way up, democratic numbers are up. I'm going to be there too, to make sure that his a&& gets nailed to the barn door.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

55. All true, though his Russian numbers are up.

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[BlueStater]

43. I pray that his despicable ass won't even be on the ticket. n/t

[LibDemAlways]

53. With investigations ramping up, there is a good chance IMO

that Trump won't run again. I can see Pence getting the nod after a challenge from Mittens. It's all too depressing to even contemplate.

[C_U_L8R]

46. Uphill?

[ooky]

47. WTF did he do between Jan and Feb for his approval to jump from 43% to 46%?

Stop holding the country hostage? Who are these fucking ?

I don't even believe that. I am sooooo tired of this shit.

[DallasNE]

50. This Polling Took Place

After talks with Kim fell apart. Does that mean people are relieved that Trump didn't sell the farm for just any agreement or does it mean Republicans are behind Trump no matter what - perhaps some of each.


But framing is always important. For instance, the media tells us daily how good the economy is. Yes for Wall Street but mixed for Main Street. The 4 week moving average for initial jobless claims bottomed last October and have been trending upward every since. 3rd quarter GDP was slower than 2nd quarter and 4th quarter GDP was slower than 3rd quarter. Another trend line headed in the wrong direction. Farm bankruptcies are the highest they have been since the Great Recession. The latest reports on existing home sales are negative and the latest Philadelphia manufacturing index is negative. While we are not in a recession there are a plenty of red lights flashing. So why are the media not reporting on any of this and instead repeat the Trump stump speech line about how great the economy is?

[INdemo]

48. I dont believe it.

[stopbush]

51. 25% of Americans identify as Rs. 89% of Rs strongly support tRump.

That’s what? 22% of Americans who strongly support tRump?

Yeah. He has a lot of work to do.

[marlakay]

57. He just has to hope the 50%

That don’t vote don’t...and that he can cheat, its his only hope.

I really think we can win with just about anyone unless war is declared and media does the fear thing.

[Blue Owl]

52. Yeah his party of Russian bots is very loyal indeed

n/t

[durablend]

63. MSM ginning up that horserace

"No one ever thought Trump would be re-(s)elected!"

[Maxheader]

66. We've all remarked at the donnybots population..amazed

there are so many that consider it to be a great leader..."we didn't want a politician, we wanted a businessman"..
seems to be a common answer to the question of "why did you vote for it?"

The lies, the corruption..A measure of how thoroughly despised liberals are..And I've yet to understand
why?