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UpInArms

(51,243 posts)
Wed Aug 21, 2019, 10:58 AM Aug 2019

U.S. created 501,000 fewer jobs as of March 2019 than previous reported

Source: Marketwatch

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. economy had 501,000 fewer jobs in March 2019 than previously reported, government revisions show, suggesting that hiring was not as strong in the past year as it seemed. Hiring was weaker in retail, restaurants and hotels. The annual revision is much larger than is typically the case. The preliminary revision in 2018, for example, was just 43,000. Every year the Bureau of Labor Statistics updates its figures based on unemployment data that nearly all employers are required to file with the states. The current revision is one of the largest ever.

Read more: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-created-501000-fewer-jobs-as-of-march-2019-than-previous-reported-2019-08-21?mod=bnbh



Just for emphasis:

The current revision is one of the largest ever.
58 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
U.S. created 501,000 fewer jobs as of March 2019 than previous reported (Original Post) UpInArms Aug 2019 OP
Wow, that's some revision! nt Mike 03 Aug 2019 #1
Whats a half a million jobs? TheRealNorth Aug 2019 #6
BLS is lap dog for Don da Con Cryptoad Aug 2019 #40
Until a few weeks ago the Secretary of Labor FakeNoose Aug 2019 #46
I knew the lying, cheating bastards were rigging the employment numbers. democratisphere Aug 2019 #2
+1 sandensea Aug 2019 #31
Me, too. I don't believe anything that comes out of this government. Period! n/t Peregrine Took Aug 2019 #36
US Naval Observatory Master Clock Time mahatmakanejeeves Aug 2019 #38
working url for time ... CloudWatcher Aug 2019 #41
Browser issue? mahatmakanejeeves Aug 2019 #42
DNS issue CloudWatcher Aug 2019 #49
If they were rigging them why would they correct them? onenote Aug 2019 #52
That is HUGE! Wonder if Trump will brag about that??? ProudMNDemocrat Aug 2019 #3
Sure he will durablend Aug 2019 #13
His followers would believe he had created that many jobs DBoon Aug 2019 #45
"The current revision is one of the largest ever." Hugin Aug 2019 #4
Trumpy's minions have been cookin' the books for some time now. machoneman Aug 2019 #5
I joined a large corporation in January. lapfog_1 Aug 2019 #7
So at this point they are just straight up lying. That is more than a revision it is a SweetieD Aug 2019 #8
I don't trust any Numbers the Trump administration puts out. They will do anything to paint a rosie Meadowoak Aug 2019 #9
we've tipped off the edge and are gaining momentum as we slid toward the bottom... Javaman Aug 2019 #10
Gigantic number to make up for past lies and make room for new ones until Nov 2020 bucolic_frolic Aug 2019 #11
This would explain business closings across some flyover states ffr Aug 2019 #12
Truly hope someone missed a decimal point in the revision and it is 50,000 jobs Freethinker65 Aug 2019 #14
The whole article makes no sense ... mr_lebowski Aug 2019 #51
This article is talking about a 12-month period, not one month NickB79 Aug 2019 #53
That's not what post #25 seems to suggest ... mr_lebowski Aug 2019 #55
Is anyone really surprised that the Trump administration is caught lying yet again? cstanleytech Aug 2019 #15
I never trusted their numbers either Clarity2 Aug 2019 #16
I Can't Wait To Hear Trump's Explanation For This...... global1 Aug 2019 #17
Great catch. Thank you, UpInArms. n/t Judi Lynn Aug 2019 #18
This thread is embarrassing DrToast Aug 2019 #19
What's more, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) produces both the monthly jobs reports progree Aug 2019 #20
Exactly! DrToast Aug 2019 #23
Yeah pretty much qazplm135 Aug 2019 #34
Did they include all of those $1.50/hr app jobs? wolfie001 Aug 2019 #21
I'm looking for exactly what months were revised .... but in the meantime I ran across this progree Aug 2019 #22
Big thank you for your post. Wellstone ruled Aug 2019 #24
Found this from BLS.gov itself progree Aug 2019 #25
That's around 42k less jobs per month than originally thought. herding cats Aug 2019 #37
I'm working on updating this: progree Aug 2019 #48
So basically this isn't a 'jobs created' number, it's a 'total employed' number mr_lebowski Aug 2019 #54
I don't know if it's correct, but that's how I see it too ... progree Aug 2019 #56
Cookin' the books & pulling the wool over deplorable eyes. LIES, all lies. n/t slumcamper Aug 2019 #26
Sounds like the rats are abondoning the ship. Scruffy1 Aug 2019 #27
Hiring freeze at my company exboyfil Aug 2019 #28
Socialist sounding Bureau of Labor Statistics and their "seasonally adjusted" socialism IronLionZion Aug 2019 #29
Announcement 2019 CES Preliminary Benchmark Revision mahatmakanejeeves Aug 2019 #30
Here's the job series they are talking about (the famed and storied non-farm payroll job numbers progree Aug 2019 #33
There is little left uncouched by this corrupt administration. MarkmBha1 Aug 2019 #32
How to find archived benchmark articles going back to March 2002 mahatmakanejeeves Aug 2019 #35
Anyone trying to get a job area51 Aug 2019 #39
So if 10,000 BabyBoomers are hitting 65 every day and a bunch of them work and a bunch of them NoMoreRepugs Aug 2019 #43
You know we're in a trump recession duforsure Aug 2019 #44
Trump lying, throwing tantrums. Market up. (??!) nt wiggs Aug 2019 #47
I've said--and been shot down this is ALL SMOKE and MIRRORS BS........... Bengus81 Aug 2019 #50
Retail, restaurants and hotels....all segments that rely heavily on disposable income...that alone.. AKing Aug 2019 #57
"Fake News!" Nitram Aug 2019 #58

Cryptoad

(8,254 posts)
40. BLS is lap dog for Don da Con
Wed Aug 21, 2019, 01:00 PM
Aug 2019

they will make stats read any way he wants them to read....job security i guess!

FakeNoose

(32,202 posts)
46. Until a few weeks ago the Secretary of Labor
Wed Aug 21, 2019, 01:46 PM
Aug 2019

... was Alex Acosta. Does anybody see a pattern here?

democratisphere

(17,235 posts)
2. I knew the lying, cheating bastards were rigging the employment numbers.
Wed Aug 21, 2019, 11:04 AM
Aug 2019

Can't trust anything this administration says or does. Ever.

sandensea

(21,460 posts)
31. +1
Wed Aug 21, 2019, 12:22 PM
Aug 2019

Hence Cheeto's caterwauling about "left-wing" economists cooking the books against him, just the other day.

The fat bastard knew this revision was coming (plus others in the near future, no doubt), and wanted to get ahead of the story.

He's nothing if not predictable.

CloudWatcher

(1,829 posts)
41. working url for time ...
Wed Aug 21, 2019, 01:03 PM
Aug 2019

That link failed for me, this one works ...

https://tycho.usno.navy.mil/simpletime.html

Humor: it was wrong!

The page took a few seconds to load the first time, and it was off by about 4 seconds from my NTP-sync'd Macbook. I reloaded the web page and now the web animated display is in sync with the clock on my Mac.

I.e. the animation is cute, but it does not take into account network delays and doesn't correct itself after starting up.

Not sure how I can blame this on Trump, other than lack of accountability/expertise at all levels.

mahatmakanejeeves

(56,710 posts)
42. Browser issue?
Wed Aug 21, 2019, 01:04 PM
Aug 2019

I'm using Google Chrome on a Dell laptop. I have had issues with government (and one other) URLs that had to have MSIE or Edge or whatever it's called now to work right.

CloudWatcher

(1,829 posts)
49. DNS issue
Wed Aug 21, 2019, 02:37 PM
Aug 2019

Interesting! Yes, your URL is fine. It looks like a DNS server is sometimes failing on the name lookup for www.usno.navy.mil. I'm guessing there is/was a ".mil" DNS server being very very slow or just returning no-such-name for it. I had it fail here and also on a virtual linux system that I test with out in the cloud. But kicking DNS a couple of times eventually worked. Ah, and it also (a few times) failed for tycho.usno.navy.mil. A puzzle!

Btw, thanks for the link, pretty cool site (when DNS lets me into it)

durablend

(7,402 posts)
13. Sure he will
Wed Aug 21, 2019, 11:14 AM
Aug 2019

"LYING FAKE MEDIA TRYING TO TEAR DOWN OUR BIGLY GREATEST ECONOMY!!!! BIGGEST JOBS EVER!!!!"

DBoon

(22,256 posts)
45. His followers would believe he had created that many jobs
Wed Aug 21, 2019, 01:38 PM
Aug 2019

“It appeared that there had even been demonstrations to thank Big Brother for raising the chocolate ration to twenty grams a week. And only yesterday […] it had been announced that the ration was to be reduced to twenty grams a week. Was it possible that they could swallow that, after only twenty-four hours? Yes, they swallowed it. [...] The eyeless crature at the other table swallowed it fanatically. passionately, with a furious desire to track down, denounce, and vaporize anyone who should suggest that last week the ration had been thirty grams. Syme, too-in some more double complex way, involving doublethink-Syme, swallow it. Was he, then, alone in the possession of a memory?”

https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/8887641-it-appeared-that-there-had-even-been-demonstrations-to-thank

That quote from 1984 came immediately to mind

machoneman

(3,941 posts)
5. Trumpy's minions have been cookin' the books for some time now.
Wed Aug 21, 2019, 11:05 AM
Aug 2019

How do we know this? Because the OrangeFueher accused our last real and duly elected President Obama of doing the very same thing.

Except Obama and his professional staff would have never done this.

Projection much, Trumpy?

Oddly, this will still all come out in the wash as their scramble to hide the real data will not stop the coming recession. And even Wall Street, that bastion of red voters, can't be fooled by these sophomoric attempts to hide the truth!

lapfog_1

(29,147 posts)
7. I joined a large corporation in January.
Wed Aug 21, 2019, 11:06 AM
Aug 2019

The week I started there was orientation for new hires... 137 in that week alone...

One of the largest new hire groups in the companies history.

Now... 3 quarters later... there has been a hiring freeze for the last 8 months... and very few replacement hires for people who retired or moved on to other companies.

We are preparing for a recession, even though last quarter was a bang up quarter for us... higher gross income, better margins, flat expenses...

SweetieD

(1,660 posts)
8. So at this point they are just straight up lying. That is more than a revision it is a
Wed Aug 21, 2019, 11:06 AM
Aug 2019

Cover up. Who knows what the next few months revisions will be.

Meadowoak

(5,492 posts)
9. I don't trust any Numbers the Trump administration puts out. They will do anything to paint a rosie
Wed Aug 21, 2019, 11:08 AM
Aug 2019

Picture. Expect lots of fake numbers in the coming year. They are desperately trying to hide the fact that a recession is near.

Javaman

(62,394 posts)
10. we've tipped off the edge and are gaining momentum as we slid toward the bottom...
Wed Aug 21, 2019, 11:11 AM
Aug 2019

queue the rant by the orange asshole.

but the more he screams, the worse it gets.

we are heading head first into a recession and if the orange asshole pulls another crooked election, I am going on record to say, we are going to hit a depression.


bucolic_frolic

(42,478 posts)
11. Gigantic number to make up for past lies and make room for new ones until Nov 2020
Wed Aug 21, 2019, 11:11 AM
Aug 2019

It's a strategy. Now the lying can continue with the greatest jobs gains ever. This has quintessential Trump written all over it.

ffr

(22,636 posts)
12. This would explain business closings across some flyover states
Wed Aug 21, 2019, 11:14 AM
Aug 2019

What you see with your own eyes doesn't jibe with what our government says is happening.

Sounds like a cover-up to me to fool enough people into casting ballots for the next Recession Republican.

 

mr_lebowski

(33,643 posts)
51. The whole article makes no sense ...
Wed Aug 21, 2019, 03:20 PM
Aug 2019

There's basically never 500,000K jobs created in one month, period, much less the numbers being off by that much. Then the article talks about annual numbers, and 'total number of jobs', not just 'newly created jobs'.

I can't make heads or tails of what's going on by the excerpt, and the excerpt is so poorly written I don't care to read the rest frankly.

NickB79

(19,063 posts)
53. This article is talking about a 12-month period, not one month
Wed Aug 21, 2019, 05:43 PM
Aug 2019

Basically, from March 2018-March 2019, we added 500K fewer jobs that we originally thought.

So say we thought we added 3.5 million jobs in a year. In reality it was only 3 million.

 

mr_lebowski

(33,643 posts)
55. That's not what post #25 seems to suggest ...
Wed Aug 21, 2019, 06:07 PM
Aug 2019

Sounds to me like there was 500,000 less people employed overall in the Month of March, 2019 (a -.3% downward reduction) than the initial estimate.

These are not 'jobs created' numbers, other than tangentially.

Headline doesn't actually match the story.

Clarity2

(1,009 posts)
16. I never trusted their numbers either
Wed Aug 21, 2019, 11:24 AM
Aug 2019

And retail/restaurant/hotel: people are spending less and traveling less. It was inevitable. They gave all the tax cuts to the wealthy. The wealthy are spending on premium retailers. The low and middle class are reigning in spending. It's no surprise Walmart is doing so well. People are trying to stretch their dollars.

global1

(25,143 posts)
17. I Can't Wait To Hear Trump's Explanation For This......
Wed Aug 21, 2019, 11:27 AM
Aug 2019

I'm guessing that he'll be saying that these numbers are fake.

DrToast

(6,414 posts)
19. This thread is embarrassing
Wed Aug 21, 2019, 11:37 AM
Aug 2019

The numbers get revised every year. Larger revisions tend to occur around turning points in the business cycle.

If Trump was lying about the numbers, then why would they release corrections?!

Good lord....I thought only the right was susceptible to crazy conspiracies. Guess not.

progree

(10,864 posts)
20. What's more, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) produces both the monthly jobs reports
Wed Aug 21, 2019, 11:51 AM
Aug 2019

and all the tons of statistics that go with it ( www.bls.gov ) and they also do the annual revisions. It's not like "the Trump administration" produces the jobs report, and some kind of media watch dog or some Inspector General or other knight in shining armor or some such does the revisions, as some seem to think.

DrToast

(6,414 posts)
23. Exactly!
Wed Aug 21, 2019, 12:03 PM
Aug 2019

“I don’t trust the BLS numbers!”

“Well, the BLS just released their annual revisions that involved a decreased job count.”

“Oh, I’m sure those numbers are accurate.”

qazplm135

(7,447 posts)
34. Yeah pretty much
Wed Aug 21, 2019, 12:33 PM
Aug 2019

you don't lie to then reveal it. What's the point of that, it's worse than just putting the numbers out straight.

progree

(10,864 posts)
22. I'm looking for exactly what months were revised .... but in the meantime I ran across this
Wed Aug 21, 2019, 11:53 AM
Aug 2019

Job Growth in 2018 Slower Than We Thought, Kevin Drum, political blogger, MotherJones website, 8/21/19
https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2019/08/job-growth-in-2018-slower-than-we-thought/
Tweet from Gregory Daco - with a graph New data reveals slower employment growth (we extrapolated revisions) going into 2020.


/photo/1


Don't ask me what this means:
" (we extrapolated revisions) going into 2020."


The graph clearly doesn't go any further than July 2019 (well maybe August 2019 but I doubt they have any kind of August numbers)
 

Wellstone ruled

(34,661 posts)
24. Big thank you for your post.
Wed Aug 21, 2019, 12:04 PM
Aug 2019

As someone who is older than dirt. Seen this disappearing Jobs Thing at least four times. Only difference,truth in reporting. The Racist Accused Rapist said from the get go,he would Juice the Numbers. After all,it is a Sales point of bragging how great he is and the USA needs to be the greatest.

After six decades of doing Business to Business Sales and Services,one sees the real truth on the ground. Sorry to say,this shit show started with the GOP Tax give away. You can only suck just so much out of people's wallets with out a major economic disaster.

progree

(10,864 posts)
25. Found this from BLS.gov itself
Wed Aug 21, 2019, 12:05 PM
Aug 2019

All emphasis mine -Progree

https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesprelbmk.htm

CES Preliminary Benchmark Announcement
In accordance with usual practice, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is announcing the preliminary estimate of the upcoming annual benchmark revision to the establishment survey employment series. The final benchmark revision will be issued in February 2020 with the publication of the January 2020 Employment Situation news release.

Each year, the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey employment estimates are benchmarked to comprehensive counts of employment for the month of March. These counts are derived from state unemployment insurance (UI) tax records that nearly all employers are required to file. For national CES employment series, the annual benchmark revisions over the last 10 years have averaged plus or minus two-tenths of one percent of total nonfarm employment. The preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision indicates a downward adjustment to March 2019 total nonfarm employment of -501,000 (-0.3 percent).

Preliminary benchmark revisions are calculated only for the month of March 2019 for the major industry sectors in table 1. The existing employment series are not updated with the release of the preliminary benchmark estimate. The data for all CES series will be updated when the final benchmark revision is issued [in February 2020 -Progree].

Table 1 shows the March 2019 preliminary benchmark revisions by major industry sector. As is typically the case, many of the individual industry series show larger percentage revisions than the total nonfarm series, primarily because statistical sampling error is greater at more detailed levels than at an aggregated level.


One has to click the link to see the table -- it doesn't paste in a readable way here.

EDITED TO ADD:

Here's the job series they are talking about: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001

anyway they haven't changed it (as indicated in the BLS announcement above, they aren't revising the series until February 2020) -- just to check, I compared the March and July numbers with what I had previously downloaded when the jobs reports came out (as for the March one, I looked at the May jobs report that includes March in Table B-1 after the usual 2 revisions they make).

(to see monthly changes: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth )

herding cats

(19,545 posts)
37. That's around 42k less jobs per month than originally thought.
Wed Aug 21, 2019, 12:47 PM
Aug 2019

Which implies a definite slowing down of growth. It's not light our hair on fire time, but Powell is going to be cutting rates more aggressively.




progree

(10,864 posts)
48. I'm working on updating this:
Wed Aug 21, 2019, 01:59 PM
Aug 2019

Last edited Wed Aug 21, 2019, 07:54 PM - Edit history (1)

This was created back on August 2 when the July numbers were reported:

Job growth has already slowed down in 2019 so far.
Summary: Average monthly net new jobs created
220,000 Obama's last 30 months (includes all of January 2017)
191,000 Trump's 30 months (February 2017 through July 2019)
165,000 2019 so far (January through July)
141,000 February through July 2019

Job numbers: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001

Monthly changes: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth

And yes yes, the unemployment rate is at about 50 year lows, but note that the prime age (25-54) labor force participation rate is below the pre-Great Recession average, going back to about 1987. (And it dropped another 0.2% in July)
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300060
https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=12256909

############################################################

To revise, I guess the 501,000 revision is for the 12 month period April 1, 2018 through March 31, 2019 (9 months in 2018, and 3 months in 2019)

and like you say that's about 42,000/month average. So I'd revise the "Trump's 30 months" above by 501,000 total fewer jobs (which over 30 months comes to 16,700 fewer jobs/month average)

and revise the "2019 so far" by 501,000/12 * 3 months = 125,250 total fewer jobs (which over 7 months comes to 17,893 fewer jobs per month average)

and the "February through July 2019" by by 501,000/12 * 2 months = 83,500 fewer total jobs (which over 6 months comes to 13,917 fewer jobs per month average)

or something.

If so, it would look something like:

220,000 Obama's last 30 months (includes all of January 2017)
174,300 Trump's 30 months (February 2017 through July 2019)
147,000 2019 so far (January through July)
127,000 February through July 2019

The above isn't final -- I will have to work with the actual job numbers rather than working with the rounded averages from my first table, but should be reasonably close unless I made a big boo boo. And of course assuming that the 501,000 downward revision applies to the period April 2018 through March 2019. (and I can only assume the amount of the revision each month is the same, given no other information).

EDITED 402p ET - corrected Trump's 30 months in above from 178,000 to 174,300.

EDITED 755p ET - See post #56 -- they will be revising the 12 monthly numbers January through December of 2019
So it looks like the entire 501,000 revision (if that number holds) will all be in the 2019 numbers. So what I did above is not quite right.




 

mr_lebowski

(33,643 posts)
54. So basically this isn't a 'jobs created' number, it's a 'total employed' number
Wed Aug 21, 2019, 06:02 PM
Aug 2019

I.E. instead of 150,000,000 people being employed in March 2019, there was really only 149,500,000 people employed that month (numbers are for example only).

Correct?

progree

(10,864 posts)
56. I don't know if it's correct, but that's how I see it too ...
Wed Aug 21, 2019, 07:43 PM
Aug 2019

I guess for this one, they focused on getting a more comprehensive and accurate total non-farm payroll employment count for the month of March.

I've never studied this benchmark revision stuff before -- I've been aware of it, and know that a year's worth of numbers at https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001
changes and they make an announcement that I see when I read the report each Februrary ...

The final benchmark revision will be issued in February 2020 with the publication of the January 2020 Employment Situation news release.


The January 2020 Employment Situation news release comes out the first Friday of February (well usually but not always the first Friday).

Here is the one from early February of 2019 published with the January 2019 Employment Situation that I downloaded when it came out -- http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Unfortunately that URL is the latest release, in this case the July 2019 situation released Aug 2. I don't know how to find the older releases. The only reason I have the January 2019 Employment Situation is because I downloaded and saved it at the time.

Anyhoo, here it is:

Revisions to Establishment Survey Data

In accordance with annual practice, the establishment survey data released today have been
benchmarked to reflect comprehensive counts of payroll jobs for March 2018. These counts are derived
principally from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), which counts jobs covered
by the Unemployment Insurance (UI) tax system. The benchmark process results in revisions to not
seasonally adjusted data from April 2017 forward. Seasonally adjusted data from January 2014 forward
are subject to revision. In addition, data for some series prior to 2014, both seasonally adjusted and
unadjusted, incorporate other revisions.

The total nonfarm employment level for March 2018 was revised downward by 1,000 (-16,000 on a not
seasonally adjusted basis, or less than -0.05 percent). The absolute average benchmark revision over the
past 10 years is 0.2 percent.

The effect of these revisions on the underlying trend in nonfarm payroll employment was minor. For
example, the over-the-year change in total nonfarm employment for 2018 was revised from +2,638,000
to +2,674,000 (seasonally adjusted). Table A presents revised total nonfarm employment data on a
seasonally adjusted basis from January to December 2018.

All revised historical establishment survey data are available on the BLS website at
www.bls.gov/ces/data.htm. In addition, an article that discusses the benchmark and post-benchmark
revisions and other technical issues is available at www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbmart.htm.

Table A. Revisions to total nonfarm employment, January to December 2018, seasonally adjusted
(Numbers in thousands)


And then it has for each month of 2018, January, February, ... , December:

Level as previously published
Level as revised
Difference

Over the month change as previously published
Over the month change as revised
Difference

Scruffy1

(3,235 posts)
27. Sounds like the rats are abondoning the ship.
Wed Aug 21, 2019, 12:11 PM
Aug 2019

Wouldn't loo0k good on your resume if tou were caught cheating. Even the Koch brothers appointee in charge of BLS is covering his ass. Time for an investigation.

IronLionZion

(45,163 posts)
29. Socialist sounding Bureau of Labor Statistics and their "seasonally adjusted" socialism
Wed Aug 21, 2019, 12:15 PM
Aug 2019


GOP claimed all these numbers were fake during the Obama years.

mahatmakanejeeves

(56,710 posts)
30. Announcement 2019 CES Preliminary Benchmark Revision
Wed Aug 21, 2019, 12:18 PM
Aug 2019

{edited} I see progree already did this: Found this from BLS.gov itself

Announcement 2019 CES Preliminary Benchmark Revision

Current Employment Statistics - CES (National)

CES Preliminary Benchmark Announcement

In accordance with usual practice, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is announcing the preliminary estimate of the upcoming annual benchmark revision to the establishment survey employment series. The final benchmark revision will be issued in February 2020 with the publication of the January 2020 Employment Situation news release.

Each year, the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey employment estimates are benchmarked to comprehensive counts of employment for the month of March. These counts are derived from state unemployment insurance (UI) tax records that nearly all employers are required to file. For national CES employment series, the annual benchmark revisions over the last 10 years have averaged plus or minus two-tenths of one percent of total nonfarm employment. The preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision indicates a downward adjustment to March 2019 total nonfarm employment of -501,000 (-0.3 percent).

Preliminary benchmark revisions are calculated only for the month of March 2019 for the major industry sectors in table 1. The existing employment series are not updated with the release of the preliminary benchmark estimate. The data for all CES series will be updated when the final benchmark revision is issued.

Table 1 shows the March 2019 preliminary benchmark revisions by major industry sector. As is typically the case, many of the individual industry series show larger percentage revisions than the total nonfarm series, primarily because statistical sampling error is greater at more detailed levels than at an aggregated level.

{snip the charts}

Last Modified Date: August 21, 2019

{more editing:}

Start here to see the archival data: Current Employment Statistics - CES (National)

Go over to the left hand side of the page. There's a column of topics. Go down the column:

BROWSE CES

SEARCH CES

CES TOPICS

Under CES TOPICS, click on BENCHMARK.

You'll go to Current Employment Statistics - CES (National) Tables Created by BLS - Benchmark Information

In that category, click on Archived Benchmark Articles

They have .pdfs going back to March 2002.

HTH.

Thanks for the thread, UpInArms. Good job.

progree

(10,864 posts)
33. Here's the job series they are talking about (the famed and storied non-farm payroll job numbers
Wed Aug 21, 2019, 12:32 PM
Aug 2019

that are widely headlined by the media every month when it comes out (usually the first Friday of the month)

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001

anyway they haven't changed it (as indicated in the BLS announcement above, they aren't revising the series until February 2020) -- just to check, I compared the March and July numbers with what I had previously downloaded when the jobs reports came out (as for the March one, I looked at the May jobs report that includes March in Table B-1 after the usual 2 revisions they make).

(to see monthly changes: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth )

mahatmakanejeeves

(56,710 posts)
35. How to find archived benchmark articles going back to March 2002
Wed Aug 21, 2019, 12:36 PM
Aug 2019

Start here to see the archival data: Current Employment Statistics - CES (National)

Go over to the left hand side of the page. There's a column of topics. Go down the column:

BROWSE CES

SEARCH CES

CES TOPICS

Under CES TOPICS, click on BENCHMARK.

You'll go to Current Employment Statistics - CES (National) Tables Created by BLS - Benchmark Information

In that category, click on Archived Benchmark Articles

They have .pdfs going back to March 2002.

NoMoreRepugs

(9,216 posts)
43. So if 10,000 BabyBoomers are hitting 65 every day and a bunch of them work and a bunch of them
Wed Aug 21, 2019, 01:30 PM
Aug 2019

are employed at mandatory retirement establishments how does that figure into the job creation/loss numbers??

duforsure

(11,880 posts)
44. You know we're in a trump recession
Wed Aug 21, 2019, 01:32 PM
Aug 2019

When he claims the opposite. We better hope something is done before he turns into a depression.hopefully 5 or more real republicans switch party and dump Moscow Mitch, and change the direction trump is taking this country.

Bengus81

(6,901 posts)
50. I've said--and been shot down this is ALL SMOKE and MIRRORS BS...........
Wed Aug 21, 2019, 03:11 PM
Aug 2019

I can see it where I live,there is NO BOOMING economy.

AKing

(511 posts)
57. Retail, restaurants and hotels....all segments that rely heavily on disposable income...that alone..
Wed Aug 21, 2019, 08:44 PM
Aug 2019

might be what's scaring the crap out the orange menace.

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