Tesla is surging yet again with the stock jumping $100 in early trading

[Mr. Sparkle]

Source: CNBC



Tesla jumped again on Tuesday, smashing past the $800 level and set to open at a new record high as major shareholder Ron Baron forecast the company will top $1 trillion in revenue in a decade and as investors who bet against the stock scrambled to catch up. The more than 12% surge comes after Tesla on Monday climbed nearly 20%, its biggest one-day gain in six years. Tesla's stock roared after Argus Research raised its price target to a new Wall Street high of $808 a share. But even Argus' price target is below where the stock is set to open on Tuesday.

Tesla shares are up more than 80% this year through Monday's close, fueled by analysts raising price targets to catch up to the stock and short-covering by investors betting against the shares. Analysts still can't keep up with the run. The average 12-month price target of analysts is $493, up from $334 in December, according to FactSet. That new target is more than 40% below where the stock is trading in premarket trading Tuesday.

At the same time, short-sellers are scrambling with investors betting against the stock down more than $8 billion since the beginning of the year, according to S3 Partners. Since Tesla's stock was under $200 a share in June, the firm said short sellers have covered $12.6 billion worth of stock. That's a factor that is likely fueling Tesla's current rally: If enough short sellers buy in tandem, it can create higher demand and itself drive the equity price even higher, a phenomenon also known as "a short squeeze."



Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/04/tesla-stock-surging-yet-again-tsla-jumps-past-800-in-early-trading.html

[bucolic_frolic]

1. A sign that Wall Street is out of whack by QE again

Investors have talked of a blow-off bullish top for years, Dow 37,000 being mentioned. It's the effects of QE, which is really an indication of how much they have devalued the currency - the US Dollar - by in effect printing so much money.

As for Tesla, I suspect there will be glitches. It's not like there are repair shops around, and Dealerships are thinly distributed. You do like to pay dealership service and repair rates, right?

Sorry, I'll stick with my conventional autos for a decade or two until the alternatives become battle-tested and not so subject to hype and monopoly pricing.

[Tikki]

3. I guess the Tesla is being 'battle tested' in my corner of So Cal..they are everywhere..

here.

Tikki

[Miguelito Loveless]

5. I have been driving EVs for going on six years now

and no major issues so far. Of course I do spend a whole lot less on gasoline (zero actually), and even factoring in the increase in electricity, I come out to about 1/4 the cost of gasoline. No pollution, no oil changes, mufflers, water pumps, fuel pumps, belts, radiator repairs, oxygen sensors, catalytic converters, transmissions, etc.

I come home every night, plug in, and have a full "tank" the next day. Haven't been to a gas station in two years since we replaced the Volt, our plug in hybrid, with a Model 3.

As to "monopoly pricing" There are EVs with decent range for around $33K before tax credits, which brings it down to around $26K. Personally, I have bought all but our Model 3 used, and paid significantly less.

You could not pay me to go back to gasoline cars.

[bucolic_frolic]

10. Some people are saying

[Miguelito Loveless]

14. As you say

"Some people say..."

Economies of scale will change parts cost. It is still "illegal" to sell and service Teslas in about 10 states, partially so in 10 others. If you cracked your iPhone screen, you could be out a fair chunk of the phone's price as Apple was the only game in town for repairs, and Apple stores could be miles away.

Ten years later, Staple will replace your screen or battery for a fraction off Apple's cost and now Apple is lowering their prices.

Everyone loves to point to the Cybertruck glass as a giant fail (which it was), but it was also a hell of a marketing coup in that EVERYONE was talking about the truck and Tesla is now sitting on 400K reservations.

[bucolic_frolic]

15. Don't buy a rosy scenario

Are you a representative of Tesla, or do you work for one of their dealerships?

[Miguelito Loveless]

17. I own one

and another EV (Leaf). I have been driving EVs since 2014 (non-Tesla until mid 2018)

I do not work for Tesla, but I do run a local EV club. If you are anywhere near central NC, I would be happy to let you see a few up close, perhaps even test drive one.

[bucolic_frolic]

18. Thanks

Wouldn't touch one with a ten foot pole.

[Miguelito Loveless]

22. Why?

It's a serious question.

[rdking647]

25. teslas tax credit goes away this year

[Miguelito Loveless]

26. Tesla tax credit expired 12/31

The tax credit is still available for other automakers selling EVs such as KIA, Hyundai, Audi, etc, (except GM, whose credit is gone 3/31)

[rdking647]

27. ahh my mistake

i though it still had a year to run

[rdking647]

2. current market cap twice GM and Ford combined

its like bitcoin a couple years ago when it went to 20000.
irrational

[Miguelito Loveless]

6. The same claims were made

about Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Ebay, and a number of other tech companies that are now dominant in their field.

Also, it is not fair to compare Tesla to Bitcoin. Bitcoin had no actual product and we pure speculation. Tesla sold 367K cars last year, and opened a new factory in Shanghai in 10 months. They expect to sell half a million cars this year. This was considered absolutely impossible four years ago.

[rdking647]

8. GM sold 2.9 million cars last year

ford sold 2.4

thats a combined 5.3 M or 14x as many

how can you justify Tesla being forth 2x the gm and ford combined?

its not as if Tesla wont have competition in electric cars.
Tesla may well be a great car company. but its current valuation is insane

[bucolic_frolic]

12. I'll take a simple unibody Ford, GM, Toyota, Honda

Unibodies with few body parts are efficient because simple to build or repair

[Miguelito Loveless]

16. Well, the Cybertruck is going to that design

for the body.

As to simple to build or repair, the drivetrain has a few dozen moving parts as compared to 2000+ for an ICE vehicle. There are dual and tri-motor models coming. I don't know of any pickup with more than one motor.

[Miguelito Loveless]

13. Valuations for Amazon were insane

And people talked about how Apple's iPhone had ZERO chance of competing with established phone makers like Nokia, RIM and Motorola.

The ability to make millions of cars is useless when you suddenly find you are making models people don't want. Also, re-tooling to make EVs a very HUGE problem for legacy automakers. First they must re-tool and build entirely new assembly lines, then re-train their work force. Then they must convince their dealers to sell the cars, cars they don't understand and that will make them a LOT less profit since they don't require as much service.

Every EV Ford/GM/Toyota etc make, comes at the expense of a more profitable ICE model, that generates a lot of profit post sale due to service needs. Tesla has no legacy models to retire, no new business model to adopt to.

[rdking647]

19. tesla has to build entire factories not just assembly lines

and has to train workers.

[Miguelito Loveless]

24. What do you think it is doing?

It announced it was building a factory in Shanghai in 2018, and the "experts" said that was not going to happen. The factory is built, and making cars now. Berlin will probably take twice as long due to regulations, but Tesla has legions are experienced auto workers to draw into their work pool.

[melm00se]

4. I would avoid investing in Telsa like the plague

the bottom is going to drop out unless they start to actually turn a consistent profit.

[Miguelito Loveless]

7. Tesla has been growing by double digits for ten years now

and is set to dominate the EV market. It has done so by investing profits into expansion, R&D, and building a charging network that is now about 4-5 years ahead of all of its competitors.

[rdking647]

9. lets say it grows sales 20% a year for the next 5 years

based on its current sales of 367000 cars that would mean they sell about 900k cars in 5 years.

GM sold 2.9M last year.

All the major car companies are coming out with electrics

I can not see any rational reason for its market value to be 2x ford and gm combined

[Miguelito Loveless]

11. Sales growth is higher

They expect to sell 500K this year, and probably 1 million by the end of 2021.

There "competitors" are miles behind. Porsche promised in 2015 a car to match the Model S by 2020 at a lower cost. Instead it produced a more expensive car with almost half the range. The Bolt (introduced in 2017) was a "Tesla Killer" and so far they are selling at a fraction of the more expensive 3. (16K versus 158K).

Daimler is scaling back on its production because it can't get enough batteries, with Audi and VW scrambling to secure a battery supply (I am old enough to remember when Musk's plan to build a battery factory in Nevada was met with derision and abuse).

Still waiting on a single automaker to come up with an EV with specs that match the 8 year old Model S, never mind the current Model S, or Model 3, or the coming Model Y.

[rdking647]

21. a production forecast

they dont have tesla reaching 1m until 2024
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/09/07/how-many-electric-vehicles-will-tesla-volkswagen-nissan-sell-in-next-5-years/

[Miguelito Loveless]

23. I am more optimistic

Given a new factory online in China now, a third factory coming online in Berlin next year, changes to emissions standards in the EU, and ramping up of battery production in US and China, as well as new battery tech in the wings that will improve energy density and reduce production costs.

[rdking647]

20. i find it very dubious that they will sell 1m next year

[rdking647]

28. down 15% today,back down to 760