Don't bet on vaccine to protect us from Covid-19, says world health expert

[brooklynite]

Source: The Guardian

Humanity will have to live with the threat of coronavirus “for the foreseeable future” and adapt accordingly because there is no guarantee that a vaccine can be successfully developed, one of the world’s leading experts on the disease has warned.

The stark message was delivered by David Nabarro, professor of global health at Imperial College, London, and an envoy for the World Health Organisation on Covid-19, as the number of UK hospital deaths from the virus passed 15,000.

A further 888 people were reported on Saturday to have lost their lives – a figure described by communities secretary Robert Jenrick as “extremely sobering” – while the total number who have been infected increased by 5,525 to 114,217.

The latest figures, which do not include deaths in care homes and in the community, put further pressure on the government amid continuing anger among NHS workers and unions over the lack personal protective equipment (PPE) for hospital and care home staff on the front line.

Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/18/dont-bet-on-vaccine-to-protect-us-from-covid-19-says-world-health-expert

[dem4decades]

1. I'm still being on a vaccine, call me crazy.

[Initech]

32. Same.

There's too much at stake to not explore this possibility. Literally the fate of the world is in the hands of the vaccine / drug makers. There's billions and billions of dollars at play and a global network of doctors and public health experts trying to find a cure. There's already 70 different vaccines and a hundred different drugs in development. There's already some promise being shown on the drug front and we're not even 120 days into this pandemic here. Eventually they will find the right combination of ingredients to nuke this thing.

[cayugafalls]

2. Testing is critical and tracing contact exposure is also key.

“That means isolating those who show signs of the disease and also their contacts. Older people will have to be protected. In addition hospital capacity for dealing with cases will have to be ensured. That is going to be the new normal for us all.”

Two areas, the criminal Dump and his lack of force task force are completely unable to handle.

I will hope for a vaccine, until then, I duck and cover as much as I can.

[Rebl2]

3. It may end

up being like AIDS and we may have a couple of drugs that have to be taken to keep it controlled or taken when we get sick from the virus.

[pbmus]

4. This...⬆️⬆️⬆️⬆️⬆️⬆️

[ananda]

5. I read that Remdesivir (sp?) has been helping.

It's an anti-viral.

[Aristus]

29. It's currently undergoing tasting in macaques.

And the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease is proctoring the study. But there's been no peer review yet. And human clinical trials are a ways off yet.

[Politicub]

53. Like early HIV drugs...

You will read articles about drugs that promise to help or cure, but the reality isn’t as bright as the drug companies make it seem. Some of these drugs will quietly disappear if trials show they don’t work. Drug companies aren’t incentivized to make a big to-do about something that doesn’t work.

They are more than eager to get a stock bump from issuing a press release and doing a media campaign around their supposed miracle cure. It will barely be mentioned again if trials go poorly.

[yaesu]

10. They have found that , like HIV, it destroys T-cells lowering the immune systems response to it. nt

[Akakoji]

12. Please provide a citation for this statement

I've never seen any research that actual destruction of any lymphocyte subsets occurs. It's possible a patient may lack naive T cells that might proliferate to the lipid spikes of Sars-2, but that's a completely different thing.

[DarthDem]

21. There's no such evidence

Don't wait up for it.

[yaesu]

25. pffft

one thing I like about DU, they have an easy full ignore option.

[DarthDem]

44. I like that too

See ya.

[JudyM]

51. If you find a cite, I'm genuinely interested.

I’ve been keeping up with the research and missed that issue about directly attacking T-cells, that’s really important!

[pbmus]

28. You will find more than you want to at this link...

https://linksmedicus.com/news/antibody-responses-sars-cov-2-covid-19-recovered-patient-cohort/

[DarthDem]

43. Nothing there

Backs up the incorrect claim.

[pbmus]

46. There are 263 articles on that link in one database and you couldn't find one...

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200413/Novel-coronavirus-attacks-and-destroys-T-cells-just-like-HIV.aspx

At the top of the page there is a search function...put in covid-19 and t-cells and look in pmc...

Or click here...https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/?term=Covid-19+and+t-cells

[JudyM]

55. Thanks for this, pbmus.

[pbmus]

57. You are more than welcome...

[Akakoji]

61. I've been involved in bat virus research and EBOLA, MERS and HIV/AIDS for 40 years now

I've learned two things. Unless we get really, really, really, really, really, really lucky it takes a good ten years at the very least to develop a safe and effective vaccine for anything because contrary to vaccine denialists' grousing approved vaccines are very extensively tested. Idiosyncratic reactions to adjuvants do occur but are rare, and no vaccine causes autism. Also, if a virus does something like wipe out non-proliferated T lymphocyte lines we know that almost immediately. Covid-19 does nothing of the kind. I don't hold my breath for anyone. Viruses don't care about human impatience or politics, although our current potus placed in the position by the Electoral College has to be considered a co-factor in Covid-19. And, the Chinese do have a history of lying about science. This virus may just mutate way more than we first thought based on recently released Chinese data. But the forced human experiementation on the sailors on the USS Roosevelt will provide lots of data on that. The GOP is pure evil.

[Igel]

23. Try this link.

I think the nature article's going to go over my head real quick, so I'm providing that link unread.



https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200413/Novel-coronavirus-attacks-and-destroys-T-cells-just-like-HIV.aspx


https://www.nature.com/articles/s41423-020-0424-9


On edit: I'm not entirely sure the news-medical.net properly understood the nature.com article, and got that impression from reading the news-medical.net thing.

[BadgerMom]

38. These are what I've read.

I hope we have a safe vaccine as soon as possible. But the virus is, indeed, novel and we know relatively little about it yet. We will make progress against this disease, but it just seems realistic to admit we don’t know how long it will take. It’s not fear monger it. It’s looking at the problem armed with as much information as possible.




https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=newssearch&cd=6&ved=0ahUKEwjkh72sifToAhVIo54KHX5XAOsQxfQBCEowBQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.scmp.com%2Fnews%2Fchina%2Fsociety%2Farticle%2F3079443%2Fcoronavirus-could-target-immune-system-targeting-protective&usg=AOvVaw36fqeYfFPlm8ndDieQZAI9


https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=newssearch&cd=2&ved=0ahUKEwjkh72sifToAhVIo54KHX5XAOsQxfQBCDIwAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.news-medical.net%2Fnews%2F20200413%2FNovel-coronavirus-attacks-and-destroys-T-cells-just-like-HIV.aspx&usg=AOvVaw26U0YycNJoVzXk4MeIuRKS

[cstanleytech]

24. AIDs is a whole different ballgame as that infection is one the body cannot get rid of nor can it be

cured as of yet where as for this current virus most people do get over it.
Granted some people remain carriers but there isnt any evidence that they remain so permanently unlike with aids.

[pbmus]

30. Not really...sort of wishful thinking...presently a 2.1% reinfected rate in SK..

Last edited Sat Apr 18, 2020, 11:26 PM - Edit history (1)

https://fortune.com/2020/04/09/coronavirus-reinfection-fears-grow-cured-patients-test-positive-reactivated-virus/

[NutmegYankee]

50. Detection of viral RNA

No evidence yet that it's able to infect. It may just be the body clearing the lungs as phlegm/mucus cycles through.

[pbmus]

58. A little up in the air...literally

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7144858/

[NutmegYankee]

60. Given her history of cancer treatment, she may have just had a slower immune response.

That she wasn’t fully sick again is a good sign.

[Steelrolled]

6. Doomsday stories get the clicks

Maybe he is right, maybe he is wrong. You can find any opinion you want among the experts.

[ashredux]

7. Vegas line is heavy bad times for awhile....

Well.....that is if there was a Vegas bet on this

[Akakoji]

13. I agree. Many of my colleagues are shamelessly dread trolling for dollars

They are making wildly pessimistic, and alarming statements that are getting them back on air. Despicable. It's bad enough.

[Steelrolled]

19. Yes, and people often don't realize that "leading experts" are real-life

people, and can have real-life traits like ego, jealousy, the desire for fame, greed, etc. Some can rise above it, but many can't.

[DarthDem]

22. +1

[burrowowl]

8. This and climate change require international cooperation

Inauguration day can't come to soon to begin to put a hold and turn back dump's harm.

[angrychair]

27. If there is one silver lining

This "stay at home" order, worldwide, has been a huge boost to slowing pollution.

I've actually been stunned at some of the superficial impacts we've already seen, from Venice to Himalayas.

[videohead5]

9. So we have a vaccine for Ebola

But we can't create one for Covid-19? I think this is speculation that I have a hard time believing.

[TexasBushwhacker]

26. It's just that vaccines take time

They have to be tested for efficacy and safety. Most vaccines take a minimum of a year to develop and that's IF they are able to develop it. How long has HIV been around? We don't have a vaccine for that. We don't have a vaccine for Herpes. We have vaccines for Hepatitis A, B and E, but not C or D.

[Politicub]

54. Work on the Ebola vaccine began more than 20 years ago

Work on the vaccine stretches back to the 1990s, when a Yale University researcher, John “Jack” Rose, turned a virus that infects livestock — vesicular stomatitis virus — into a vector that could be used for vaccines. In the 2000s, scientists at Canada’s National Microbiology Laboratory led by Dr. Heinz Feldmann modified the vector to make it a delivery system to show the immune system a critical Ebola protein — creating a safe way to teach the immune system to defend against Ebola virus infection.
https://www.statnews.com/2019/12/19/fda-approves-an-ebola-vaccine-long-in-development-for-the-first-time/

I hope the Covid vaccine is faster to come to market. Ebola was easier to contain since it spread by coming into contact with contaminated bodily fluids rather than through the air.

[DarthDem]

11. Tired of the doomsaying on this issue

Maybe that expert should devote more time to working on a vaccine rather than pooh-poohing it. And if that's not his area, well, then I'm not sure why his comments are relevant.

Most of the "don't count on a vaccine" commentators fail to account for the additive powers of the entire worldwide community working on this, making past efforts poor comparators.

[Akakoji]

15. Well, creating a vaccine is not exactly easy

Last edited Sun Apr 19, 2020, 11:28 PM - Edit history (1)

and there is always concern that it could cause massive harm if one or more long term side effects are not known until it is administered to 600,000,000 people.

[DarthDem]

17. Sure

You're right. But people saying we'll never have a vaccine aren't just making those points. They're claiming it may never happen, which is pretty unlikely in the view of the vast majority of scientists.

[CountAllVotes]

31. +1,000!!!

N/T

[Jedi Guy]

16. Yeah, but no one wants to publish GOOD news. No one cares about good news.

It's bad news that drives clicks, which are the currency of this dark age.

[DarthDem]

20. Zactly

Most bad news stories these days with doomsday-type predictions either contain no evidence supporting the doomsday prophecy, or they actually contain information - always later in the article - contradicting the gloomy headline. This is an example of the former. There's no analysis at all of the expert's dramatic claim. And a Guardian story (same publication) about 5-6 days ago featured a raft of experts talking in depth about a 12-18 month vaccine timeline or even sooner.

[pbmus]

33. Realism is looking at HIV....No vaccine in 39 years...

Last edited Sun Apr 19, 2020, 01:16 AM - Edit history (1)

Cocktail therapy that holds aids at bay...

SARS and MERS, no vaccine after 17 years...

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3051853/there-was-no-vaccine-sars-or-mers-will-there-be-one-new

[DarthDem]

45. There's a bit more to the story than that

There are many reasons why there is no HIV vaccine. Probably the broadest scientific reason is that the virus' very nature attacks the immune system, which therefore (simplifying a bit) complicates many of the traditional ways of developing anti-viral vaccines. Two other scientific problems are that HIV mutates very quickly and it has many, many strains. But the most important reason why there is no HIV vaccine is lack of research and funding on a global scale. There are very sad sociological reasons for this, and ironically the highly effective development of HIV treatments has slowed the search for a vaccine. None of these issues - not one - is present with regard to SARS-CoV-2.

As for SARS-CoV-1 and MERS, the former died out very quickly and the second is extremely rare. That is why there are no vaccines for either, not for lack of trying. No one wanted to fund a vaccine for a nonexistent threat or a very rare one. This was, of course, a severe mistake and yet another reason why we shouldn't have Big Pharma making these sorts of decisions for the entire human population.

SARS-CoV-2 is currently the subject of a worldwide therapy and vaccine search by the entire scientific community. It's a significant contrast.

[pbmus]

47. Yes....

Last edited Sun Apr 19, 2020, 05:48 PM - Edit history (1)

And we still don’t have a vaccine for the common cold..

That virus came from birds over 200 years age....

[DarthDem]

48. Not analogous either

It's not deadly like SARS-CoV-2 is. There has been very little funding for a common cold vaccine. Comparing that to the moonshot-level effort now underway misses the mark.

[pbmus]

49. Interesting you say that when Jeff from Amazon wants one

And invested millions so far...

And he is wealthier than most governments...

You also must know that the common cold is a coronavirus...

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17458772

[DarthDem]

52. No

Rhinoviruses and coronaviruses cause the common cold. You are confusing viruses with the disease they cause, and rhinoviruses are completely different in any case. As for what Bezos supposedly "wants" to do, that's irrelevant, and even if true, an effort of "millions" doesn't even come close to comparing to a unified, all-hands-on-deck global initiative to find a vaccine for SARS-CoV-2. I respect your views, although what they may be is sort of unclear, but you're not really advancing them. Perhaps you just want to argue for its own sake. In any case, thanks for the discussion.

[pbmus]

56. 'There's no such evidence '

‘So don’t wait up for it‘

Famous last words...

[DarthDem]

59. No

These are better: Nice chatting with ya!

[Orrex]

14. Obviously the answer is to open all businesses immediately

Because as long as billionaires continue to earn profits, how bad can anything really be?

[Orrex]

18. He did his best work with The Foo Fighters

[Initech]

34. Wrong band. You're thinking of Jane's Addiction.

[Orrex]

40. Dammit!

[DrToast]

35. The article headline doesn't fit at all with the story

It makes it sound like a vaccine won’t work.

Bad headlines. Bad bad!

[pnwmom]

36. I don't think the headline is deceptive. He's saying not to count on an effective vaccine

being developed. That is not always a simple thing to do.

[Blasphemer]

37. I am glad the WHO is dropping some hard truths about grim possibilities

We have a government relying on one very optimistic model. It's good to have some balance. It's certainly possible there won't be a successful vaccine. That's not doom and gloom. It just means we have to use alternative strategies. Those strategies are more difficult than administering vaccines to everyone, but they can work. Similarly, it's good to get the message out that antibody testing won't necessarily be the saving grace many assume it will be. We simply don't know how reliable any of this testing is. People are spreading non-peer reviewed studies with questionable designs and suddenly everyone is an expert. I'd rather assume the worst and prepare for it than get caught off-guard because of premature assumptions.

[MineralMan]

41. I think that is the wrong conclusion to take from that article,

even in the Guardian, which often leads with alarmist stories.

What is absolutely true is that no vaccine will be available for quite some time to come. That means that we do have to take whatever measures we can to avoid infection with the Virus. That is our best defense at this time.

However, it is pretty likely that an effective, safe vaccine will be developed and made available within a year or 18 months. In the meantime, it's also likely that antiviral therapies will become available that shorten the course of the disease and prevent the very worst symptoms in the majority of cases. that will probably happen much sooner than a vaccine becomes available.

Remdesivir is looking pretty hopeful right now, and is in all sorts of trials, some compassionate, which allows its use without a control group. In one of those compassionate trials, results appear to be much better than without the treatment. It's not a proper clinical trial, but the results are useful anyhow, and should give us some hope. There are other antivirals that are also being used on compassionate grounds that may produce beneficial results.

What doesn't appear to be working is Trump's favorite hydroxychloroquine. You may have noticed that he has stopped talking about that.

The Guardian is not the last word on anything, really. Any individual story in that newspaper should be carefully compared to other stories. The Guardian has gotten many stories wrong. Take all popular journalism with gigantic grain of salt, about the size of an ice cube. Really.

[Kathy M]

42. There is continuing work being done around the world . The below artlce

highlights some , one in particular that is of interest

" WASHINGTON (AP) — Scientists are dusting off some decades-old vaccines against other germs to see if they could provide a little stopgap protection against COVID-19 until a more precise shot arrives.

It may sound odd: Vaccines are designed to target a specific disease. But vaccines made using live strains of bacteria or viruses seem to boost the immune system’s first line of defense, a more general way to guard against germs. And history books show that sometimes translates into at least some cross-protection against other, completely different bugs.

"Possibly next in line: Oral polio vaccine, drops made of live but weakened polio viruses. The Baltimore-based Global Virus Network hopes to begin similar studies with that vaccine and is in talks with health authorities, network co-founder Dr. Robert Gallo told The Associated Press.

Rapid studies are needed to tell if there could be “long-ranging effects for any second wave of this,” said Gallo, who directs the Institute of Human Virology at the University of Maryland School of Medicine."

https://apnews.com/ae72d066a2caa17de91be9a60e4934b9