US needs to conduct 20 million coronavirus tests per day to reopen fully, Harvard report says

[left-of-center2012]

Source: The Hill

The U.S. will need to administer 20 million tests for the novel coronavirus each day by mid-summer in order to fully re-mobilize the economy in a safe fashion, according to new report from a Harvard panel of more than 45 experts in health, science and economics.

The new report, released by Harvard University’s Edmond J. Safra Center for Ethics on Monday, emphasized the need for a massive scaling up of testing coupled with a robust contact-tracing program in order to reopen the U.S. in a way that avoids future shutdowns. Its top recommendations include a call for the nation to deliver 5 million tests per day by early June in order to ensure a safe reopening of portions of the economy.

“This number will need to increase over time (ideally by late July) to 20 million a day to fully remobilize the economy,” the authors wrote, cautioning that even that figure may not be high enough to “protect public health.” The value in dramatically increasing testing is it will “prevent cycles of opening up and shutting down,” the authors argued, adding that the testing output will allow the virus to be adequately managed until a vaccine is developed.

Testing at a rate of 20 million each day would cost about $15 billion each month, according to the report. Though the authors argue that the cost would fall over time and that it pales in comparison to the overall economic cost of continued stay-at-home orders.



Read more: https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/493722-us-needs-to-conduct-20-million-coronavirus-tests-per-day-to-fully-open

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Their call for 20 million daily tests is in line with recommendations from Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Romer, who said earlier this month that the U.S. needs to administer 20 to 30 million tests per day.

The U.S. has administered about 4 million tests for COVID-19 as of Monday afternoon, according to the COVID Tracking Project.

[TeamPooka]

1. sounds right. lotta catching up to do.

[bucolic_frolic]

2. Sobering

How do you get MAGAts to listen to Harvard? Send in Stephen Miller???

Here's a sobering tweet. From an actual medical doctor.

Link to tweet

BTW, where is her hubby? Why won't he make his hedge fund trades public for Democrats to see?

And btw, back to my original thought ... sobering ... the second wave will be worse than the first? We're already near economic shutdown?
Does Trump have a plan? To keep food flowing, for example? No. There's no plan. Ever. No plan, everything is fine. By late fall we'll be near collapse if the projection in the post, prompted by a WHO tidbit from J Lemire, holds true.

I say again, this is most like a war. Existential blow to economy and society. Shortages and rationing are not off the table in the future. You prioritize production of critical elements in a war crisis. Fortunately here we don't need war materiel. We need food and medicine.

Does Trump have a plan? Keep asking, keep listening. It's like where's the beef? Does Trump have a plan?

[kairos12]

5. You would have to get Dr. Oz on the panel.

[Brainfodder]

3. 20M a day? How is that even possible?

Some instant test out there?

6% of the population tested everyday at whatever the going rate is?



Just #'s, I realize the tests are for repeats for HC workers let alone patients, it's still a shockingly huge #!

[Roy Rolling]

6. Really, 20 million daily?

The U.S. has 330 million people total. So how can that last until mid-summer.?

At that rate, every man, woman, and child will be tested after only 16 days.

This isn’t right.

[iemitsu]

4. The US has huge facilities set up to test

every potential employee for drug use. These facilities need to be repurposed to do Covid 19 tests. It shouldn't be that hard.

[murielm99]

7. That is the best idea

I have seen in a long time.

[iemitsu]

8. We can test people to harrass them, we can test to save lives.

[patphil]

9. That makes a lot of sense to me.

How many million healthcare workers are there in the US? And how many other workers who are in jobs that put them in jeopardy of getting Covid19 every day?
These people should be tested on a regular basis to insure they aren't infected, and thus potentially spreading the virus.

This alone could suck up most of the 20 million tests every day. So, from my point of view, the 30 million number is probably more realistic.

As long as their is no real treatment, and no vaccine, the only defense is to prevent it's spread. The only ways to do that are by a nationwide shutdown; which is pretty much what we have now, or massive national testing to ID infected people and quarantine them.

A nationwide shutdown only buys time and "flattens the curve". Ultimately it doesn't fix the problem. I don't think we can realistically go more than another month or so before everything collapses.

The refusal of the Trump administration to push hard for massive, nationwide, testing is tantamount to planned failure. I wonder if that is part of their plan. Eventually we will have to open up the economy to prevent an even worse catastrophe.

What bothers me most is the total silence on the part of Republican legislators in the House and Senate. What's it going to take for them to stand up to Trump?