Study: Elderly Trump voters dying of coronavirus could cost him in November

[SouthernCal_Dem]

Source: Politico

An academic journal projects that deaths of 65-and-over Republican voters in several swing states will far exceed those of Democrats.

Mass casualties from the coronavirus could upend the political landscape in battleground states and shift contests away from President Donald Trump, according to a new analysis.

Academic researchers writing in a little-noticed public administration journal -- Administrative Theory & Praxis -- conclude that when considering nothing other than the tens of thousands of deaths projected from the virus, demographic shifts alone could be enough to swing crucial states to Joe Biden in the fall.

"The pandemic is going to take a greater toll on the conservative electorate leading into this election -- and that's simply just a calculation of age," Andrew Johnson, the lead author and a professor of management at Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi, said in an interview. "The virus is killing more older voters, and in many states that's the key to a GOP victory."

Read more: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/23/how-coronavirus-could-upend-2020-battlegrounds-204708

[donkeypoofed]

1. Interesting!!

[Bernardo de La Paz]

2. Even the ones who survive might be scared shitless of this "pandemic hoax", enough to stay home. nt

[kysrsoze]

4. Good point. I figured his voters might die or jump ship. They may very well avoid polling places

Their plan to suppress vote by mail might backfire for them.

[enough]

13. Hard to tell whether fear or anger might be more motivating.

Elderly people may be extremely pissed about watching friends and acquaintances die while Republicans act as if it’s not that big a deal.

[In_The_Wind]

3. Oh well

[IronLionZion]

5. Low turnout from voters staying home is another factor

Which may disproportionately impact older voters, but could impact urban and minority voters.

[Blue Owl]

6. Too bad Donny -- sucks to be you

n/t

[lagomorph777]

7. "simply just a calculation of age" - and when you factor in stupidity,

the pandemic will claim conservatives disproportionately in every age group.

[paleotn]

8. From the start, it looked like a demographic nightmare for Donnie.

Breaks my heart....not!

[NNadir]

9. The full paper is open sourced and available on line.

Mass casualty event scenarios and political shifts: 2020 election outcomes and the U.S. COVID-19 pandemic

I keep hearing from my fellow baby boomers - particularly those who like to bash the shit our of young people, a rising great generation - that Trump (and for that matter everything else we screwed royally) isn't our fault, to which I respond, "Bullshit."

From the text:

There are historical examples of global pandemics resulting in mass causalities. The AIDS epidemic (1981-present), Plague of Justinian (Beginning in 541 AD), and the Black Death (1348–1351) serve as examples of epidemics with death tolls well into the millions of individuals (Brainerd & Siegler, 2003). Influenza routinely claims the lives of thousands of people per year with some years being particularly severe (e.g., 1957, 1968, 2009) (Jordan, n.d.). The most serious influenza events have the potential to be classified as a pandemic if certain criteria are met, as outlined by the World Health Organization (WHO) (World Health Organization, 2020). The most recent global influenza pandemic occurred in 1918 with the spread of the H1N1 influenza strain. The pandemic claimed the lives of an estimated 50 million people worldwide and 675,000 people in the United States (Jordan, n.d.). Since this pandemic occurred over a century ago, sound data was not collected as it might be today (Brainerd & Siegler, 2003). However, experts believe that the influenza strain was indiscriminate in that it was often fatal even to those in good health (Crosby, 1989).


Certain demographics have a strong tendency to vote for one of the two major political parties more than others. According to the Pew Research Center, when data from the 2016 U.S. Presidential election was analyzed, the Republican candidate (Donald Trump) had an advantage with voters fifty and older, while the Democratic candidate (Hillary Clinton) had an advantage with voters under 49 years of age (Pew Research Center, 2018). Voting differences based on other demographics such race and gender were also noted. Older Americans tend to vote more than younger ones. A Pew Research Center (2018) poll on the 2016 presidential election found that individuals age 65 or older made up 27% of voters while those aged 18–29 made up 13%. U.S. Census (2019) data indicate that these two groups of Americans are roughly equal in terms of the ADMINISTRATIVE THEORY & PRAXIS 5 population yet this difference in voter participation gives older Americans a disproportionately large influence in elections. The loss of a significant number of older individuals could reshape U.S. politics. This could be particularly true in the U.S. presidential election as critical swing states were won by Trump with very narrow margins including Michigan (10,704 votes), Wisconsin (22,748 votes), and Pennsylvania (44,292 votes) (Meko et al., 2016; New York Times, 2017).

I added the bold.

[yellowdogintexas]

10. this has been in the back of my mind since the numbers started climbing

in states he won in 2016. It is going to be a factor

[idziak4ever1234]

11. Makes the idea of opening up Florida seem counterproductive

[LiberalLoner]

12. The only generation where the majority favor trump is the Silent Generation.

They are the ones most at risk from this virus as they are over 75 now.

[DownriverDem]

20. Agree

They are not Baby Boomers. A lot of Baby Boomers have always leaned left and still do.

[bucolic_frolic]

14. How about those who recover?

You think they'll realize the source of their illness?

[beachbumbob]

15. Karma

[kimbutgar]

16. And don't forget those idiots out protesting against stay at home orders

A lot of them look overweight and not too healthy. A study in France said that obesity is a factor in higher deaths in France.

The unintended consequence of being an idiot who doesn’t believe in science.

[OneCrazyDiamond]

17. I bet that is why he target blue states fo no help N/T

[FakeNoose]

18. Of course! We've been saying this all along on DU

Chumphumpers are not taking precautions, they're mostly older, and they're mostly noncritical thinkers who believe every lie they hear on Faux News. The Chumphumpers are dying off first, and many will be gone by November.

Whoever is left will hopefully be so disgusted that they'll refuse to go to the polls for him.
(We can always hope.)

[howardmappel]

19. Too bad, so sad.

That just breaks my heart. And it might have the added effect of driving down Fox/Hannity/Alex Jones/ etc. ratings. A three-fer -- the great orange shitgibbon loses, Fox et al lose, and the population loses a bunch of haters, bigots, racists, misogynists, etc. If you could just throw in some of the RW billionaires, I would consider it good news.

[Strelnikov_]

21. " . . that's simply just a calculation of age" and, I posit, sex

Killing off men at a 2:1 ratio . . and old white men are the GOP base.

[Nitram]

22. Shadenfreude.

Forgive me, but I do believe in karma.

[Dial H For Hero]

23. Quite possible.