Trump Administration Models Predict Near Doubling of Daily Death Toll by June

[Quixote1818]

Source: New York Times

The Trump administration projects about 3,000 daily deaths by early June.
As President Trump presses for states to reopen their economies, his administration is privately projecting a steady rise in the number of cases and deaths from the coronavirus over the next several weeks, reaching about 3,000 daily deaths on June 1, according to an internal document obtained by The New York Times, nearly double from the current level of about 1,750.

The projections, based on government modeling pulled together in chart form by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, forecast about 200,000 new cases each day by the end of the month, up from about 25,000 cases now.

The numbers underscore a sobering reality: While the United States has been hunkered down for the past seven weeks, not much has changed. And the reopening to the economy will make matters worse.

“There remains a large number of counties whose burden continues to grow,” the C.D.C. warned.

Read more: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/04/us/coronavirus-updates.html

[Botany]

1. No words

[berni_mccoy]

2. We have only just seen the tip of the iceberg here...

It will get much much worse than many can imagine.

[Botany]

4. IRC: World risks up to 1 billion cases and 3.2 million deaths from COVID-19 across fragile countries

https://www.rescue.org/press-release/irc-world-risks-1-billion-cases-and-32-million-deaths-covid-19-across-fragile

COVID-19 cases could surge in fall, last 2 years, University of Minnesota report says
The pandemic could last up to two years, according to nationally renowned epidemiologist Michael Osterholm and a team of researchers.

https://www.startribune.com/covid-19-cases-could-surge-in-fall-last-2-years-u-report-predicts/570130602/

[NotHardly]

13. If one does the simplest math w/June showing 3,000 dead each day thereafter...

by the time election day gets here in November there will be 450,000 dead by November 1, 2020 and only if it does not continue to raise as a per day average. 1/2 a million dead and the rest of the country awash with infection.

Trump and the Trump Administration is literally killing America.

[NCjack]

3. I don't see stock market going up while death rate is. nt

[NotHardly]

14. Oh, it will go up alright ... the rich & 'masters of the universe types' are not dying...

they won't notice until they have to wash their own clothes and wipe their own arses.

[sakabatou]

5. So by June, we will have the same amount of deaths on 9-11, everyday

[riversedge]

6. yes. damn.

[PSPS]

7. Be careful

Remember, the first sentence is, "The Trump administration projects about 3,000 daily deaths by early June." Aything beginning with "The trump administration" must always be suspect. That includes all federal agencies because they're all controlled by trump toadys now.

This could very well be a political move to lie about the projection, making it very high, so that trump can proclaim "the greatest victory by any president ever in the country's history!!!111!" when it's anything lower.

[tulipsandroses]

8. Why did they change their predicted death rate earlier? We went from 100K -200K to 50 K

Now back to higher number. Why did they start saying the death rate was going to be lower?

[Initech]

10. Easy - they don't know - or care.

Would you trust the administration who created the war on facts to get anything right about this? I know I wouldn't.

[Blasphemer]

12. Weren't they using the IHME model?

That model assumed keeping up social distancing until August. That is not happening.

[bucolic_frolic]

9. Grate job! That's 90,000 a month, 18 months to go

[truthisfreedom]

11. So how does 1,000,000 deaths per year reconcile with 45's promise

Of 65,000 total deaths?

[tanyev]

15. Maybe we can hit 200K by the Fourth of July!

Hey, as long as the flag is still there, it’s ok, right?

[GETPLANING]

16. There's your "pro-life" administration at work