Models shift to predict dramatically more U.S. deaths as states relax social distancing

[TomCADem]

Source: Politico

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine is now projecting 134,000 coronavirus-related fatalities, up from a previous prediction of 72,000. Factoring in the scientists’ margin of error, the new prediction ranges from 95,000 to 243,000.

Dr. Christopher Murray, the director of IMHE, told reporters on a call Monday the primary reason for the increase is many states’ “premature relaxation of social distancing.”

For the first time, Murray explained, the model is factoring in data from four different cell phone providers showing a major uptick in Americans’ going out in public.

This rise of mobility in the last week or 10 days is likely leading to an increase in transmission, he said.

Read more: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/models-shift-to-predict-dramatically-more-us-deaths-as-states-relax-social-distancing/ar-BB13AKrZ?li=BBnb7Kz

---

I am sure Trump and Republicans will blame President Obama, Biden, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, the Chinese, Etc., for hiding the fact that relaxing social distancing and promoting mass protests might cause more deaths.

[jimfields33]

1. I think we need to make a list of states not doing this.

The list would be small.

[TomCADem]

3. Hours Before Businesses Can Reopen, Texas Reports Highest Daily COVID-19 Death Increase

I recall you posted a week ago arguing that Texas was more careful than other states, yet their Lt. Governor has very outspoken about relaxing social distancing. Texas may not be as densely populated as some of the Northeastern states, but that is not a reason to get cocky and rush to re-open, let alone encouraging folks to congregate and protest efforts to prevent the spread of the disease.

https://www.texasmonthly.com/news/hours-before-businesses-reopen-texas-reports-highest-daily-coronavirus-death-increase/

When Governor Greg Abbott announced Monday that Texas would begin on Friday to lift lockdown orders amid the coronavirus crisis, he said his approach would be guided by data. Seven and a half hours before the state’s stay-at-home order would expire, two new key data points emerged. The Texas Department of State Health Services reported fifty new deaths from COVID-19 in the state, the largest single day increase during the pandemic. For only the second time since tracking began, it also reported more than one thousand new confirmed cases.

Under Abbott’s plan, retail stores, restaurants, malls, and movie theaters are allowed to reopen starting Friday, at 25 percent capacity. The plan to reopen runs contrary to the advice of Abbott’s own medical advisers, and comes amid polling that suggests that 78 percent of Texans are still concerned about being around others during the pandemic.

That a larger number of confirmed deaths from the coronavirus was reported hours before businesses were set to reopen doesn’t necessarily mean that the reopening is happening amid a surge in the disease’s spread. The spike may be an outlier rather than an indication of a new trend: it’s still a relatively small uptick.

But there’s also no data that tells us that right now is the time to begin lifting the lockdown. The uptick is a reminder that, as the state is set to open up, nothing about our ability to contain or control the spread of COVID-19 in Texas has changed since lockdown orders began in cities across the state in mid-March. There’s still no treatment that has proved effective. There’s still no vaccine. And Texas still conducts far fewer than the more than 40,000 daily tests experts suggest would, with a robust contact-tracing effort, be adequate to contain the spread of the virus.

[IronLionZion]

2. Since the deaths will come several weeks later in June,

deplorables will know that proves that it had nothing to do with opening up states, but rather is entirely the fault of unvaccinated illegals crossing our Southern border (if it peaks in the South) or foreign looking US citizens like Asian-Americans.

[zonemaster]

4. Y'ain't foolin' the virus, mutha' fuckaz

.

[docgee]

5. 72000? The death toll is going to blow by that this week.

Without the effects of reopening.


(Actually meant to reply to the OP. Oh well)

[truthisfreedom]

6. It's at 69,000 right now!

[stopdiggin]

8. yep. only thing I disagree with in the article

is that recent "moves" are resulting in changes to modeling. BS!! Any grade school kid could have been predicting we were going to annihilate 72 thousand, at least a week or two back. Opening business and "relaxing" social distancing is of course going to make everything worse. But .. if you weren't changing your modeling BIG TIME in the past couple of weeks without those factors .. you're seriously deluded, and have no business in the field.

[SergeStorms]

7. As long as it gets only deplorables....

I can live with that. I'm sick of these idiots. They'd rather take the chance of dying than let their hair grow a little longer, or put off getting that great tattoo. To hell with them. You (and Vladimir Putin) elected the King Moron, and you're his loyal subjects. He requires that you die now. OBEY!