Key coronavirus model projects 137k deaths in U.S. by August

[TomCADem]

Source: CBS News

Washington — One of the leading models for measuring the impact of the coronavirus is now projecting a total of 137,184 cumulative COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. through the beginning of August, an increase of roughly 2,700 deaths from its previous forecast on May 4.

Christopher Murray, the director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, predicted the number of cases to particularly increase in areas where people become more mobile.

"What's driving the change is, simply put, the rise in mobility, and that's the key driver," Murray said on "Face the Nation" on Sunday. "We're seeing in some states, you know, a 20-percentage-point increase in just 10 days in mobility. And that will translate into more human contact, more transmission."

Murray said states which have "big increases in mobility" may see a significant uptick in cases in the coming weeks. The top five states with increased mobility are Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota and Georgia, Murray said.

Read more: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/key-coronavirus-model-projects-137k-deaths-in-us-by-august/ar-BB13ROHc?li=BBnb7Kz

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The problem with these models as in life is that they are dynamic. You can't take 65,000 to the bank and say, "that's acceptable," lets open up or protest, because that by itself changes the model. In other words, reacting the the predictions of a model itself changes the model. Unfortunately, Trump and Republicans do not understand this. They think that shutting down the economy to save 60,000 lives is overkill when that thinking is backwards. Shutting down the economy would have kept deaths in the 60,000 range.

However, we have not really shut things down, because Trump has been creating huge exceptions and encouraging people to ignore social distancing. Thus, deaths will continue to grow.

The math behind the models is illustrated nicely in this video:

[pandr32]

1. It seems to still be too low.

The problems are the following:
People are losing health care and will likely not go to hospitals and doctors.
The numbers are already under-reported and recorded.

Trump/Pence 2020 will do their best to keep the true count from ever reaching the light of day.

[TomCADem]

2. The dead don't go to hospitals. They go to the morge.

Brazil has universal healthcare, but that is not preventing underreporting, particularly when you have a Trump like President in charge of the system.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2014/05/the-struggle-for-universal-healthcare/361854/

What the U.S. Can Learn From Brazil's Healthcare Mess

On a recent afternoon in Boa Vista, a lower-middle-class neighborhood of Sao Paulo, Brazil, Noranei Oliveira Miranda waited patiently on a small couch for the local community health workers to arrive.

Her aging father, Dirceu, was seated next to her, not as patiently. Trembling and non-verbal, he reared up from the couch and reached in vain for the front door. She held him down with a pillow, her strong arms forming a seatbelt across his torso.

“Sit still, dad!” she cried in Portuguese.

Dirceu was a professional driver until Alzheimer’s robbed him of his mental faculties and an HIV infection further depleted him. Now he’s delirious and desperate to get back onto the hilly, narrow streets where he made his living as a younger man. His face is riddled with wounds from falls he incurred during past escape attempts. Noranei, the youngest child, has quit her restaurant job to help take care of him.

[pandr32]

8. That's probably how we will eventually find out.

The morgues will report.
So sad for all those suffering.

[dawg day]

3. "A total" sounds like that's the end amount

And we know there will be more deaths after August.

If the rate of 1500+ a day deaths keeps up, we'll be at 200K by this time August. It might level off, of course, and there might be new treatments and the health-care workers might come up with more ways to keep people alive until they're better...

But 137K in 90 days when we're already at about 80K?

I think that will mostly be achieved by severe undercounting, and I really hope the states resist doing that. Trump's lackeys, of course, will rely on that.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

4. I wish that model hadn't received so much attention.

It has repeatedly underestimated the projected deaths.

Trump's team pushed it, though, so it gets more attention than deserved just like the hydroxychloroquine bullshit.

[Swede]

5. Just passed eighty thousand deaths this morning.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR1ikSMABLMS-CMyd6bTkOhW4WfolDmpqeuk2fROyHGizNyM44GkOn3fkBk

[ananda]

6. These are such bullshit numbers.

First, we know that cases and deaths are being seriously under-reported.

Two, we are at 80,000 plus now, officially. We are probably over double
that in real life.

[patphil]

7. We're at 80,000 now.

That prediction says we only get 57,000 more cases in 82 days.
That's about 700 per day.
Given the fact that many parts of the country are racing to reopen, I can't imagine the average going anywhere near that low.
Even with willful under reporting, I think we are going to average over 1000 per day.
We will be over 160,000 by August 1st, and possibly over 200,000.

[Blasphemer]

9. I'd add at least 100,000 to that number

We'll break 100,000 by month's end. Then using the 3000 per day by early June #, you can add 90,000 for June alone. Even if the daily deaths go down in July, we still will be around 250,000 deaths by the end of July.

[Warpy]

10. We'll be there by the end of June, if not sooner

thanks to harebrained governors reopening things like restaurant dining rooms.

Salons, nail salons, tattoo parlors, massage therapy, all those places can require masks. Restaurants can't.

Right now, I'd estimate we've got at least 80% compliance with CDC recs. That's why cases here have started to level off.

[bucolic_frolic]

11. Same thing Brontosaurus told Tyrannosaurus Rex