Study projects US COVID-19 deaths to triple by end of year

[left-of-center2012]

Source: The Hill

A new study suggests the number of Americans who will die after contracting the novel coronavirus is likely to more than triple by the end of the year, even if current social-distancing habits continue for months on end. The study, conducted by the Comparative Health Outcomes, Policy and Economics Institute at the University of Washington's School of Pharmacy, found that 1.3 percent of those who show symptoms of the COVID-19 disease caused by the virus die, an infection fatality rate that is 13 times higher than a bad influenza season.

If the infection fatality rate is accurate, and if the coronavirus continues spreading at current rates even before most states open their economies and relax social-distancing restrictions,
the COVID-19 disease could claim between 350,000 and 1.2 million American lives by the end of this year.

Even as states begin reopening, many are experiencing a rapid increase in the number of new cases. States like Alabama, Arkansas, Maine, Minnesota, North Carolina and North Dakota have seen their numbers of cases spike by more than 25 percent over the last two weeks, according to data collected by a group of researchers in a collaboration called the Covid Exit Strategy.

The United States is confirming about 20,000 new coronavirus cases a day, according to data maintained by The Covid Tracking Project. That figure is down from earlier this month, when about 25,000 new cases were showing up on a daily basis, a positive step but one that still shows community transmission is widespread.

Read more: https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/498533-study-projects-us-covid-19-deaths-to-triple-by-end-of-year

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"... the COVID-19 disease could claim between 350,000 and 1.2 million American lives by the end of this year."

"The United States is confirming about 20,000 new coronavirus cases a day"

[louis-t]

1. How will trumpie lie that away?

They're already saying cases aren't increasing where stay at home is lifted and where people are locked down that cases are increasing.

[NickB79]

2. This is going to be a rough fucking winter

Dr. Bright was right. This is going to be the worst winter in the US in modern history.

[Turbineguy]

3. Republicans are hoping for that.

When they found out the pandemic was killing mostly brown or dark-skinned people, they liked the virus. Sure, a few white Grandpa's and Grandma's croaked, but the sooner they go, the sooner you inherit their stash!

[machoneman]

13. Ah, but that was in high-density major metro areas. Now it's striking mainly white America...

in the Midwest and North. Not many minorities in ND,SD, ID, MT, IA, etc.

[yaesu]

4. What distancing? Haven't seen it yet, maybe a few larger cities but that's about it. nt

[Canoe52]

5. Didn't need a study to project that.

Close to 100,000 on the way up, 100k while it levels off, another 100k on the way down...

But the good news! Now that I’m taking Hydroxychloroquine that pResident pinesol promoted, I have a butt light for sale, only slightly used.

[Ford_Prefect]

6. This means nearly 3000 people per day dying. That's twice as many people as my town has.

I'm in rural MT farm country but not far from the suburban sprawl. It won't take long to wipe us out once the spread happens. All it takes is one or two fools who can't wait to go fishing passing through from Idaho, Washington, Oregon or Utah.

The good hospital is 50 miles from here and it serves the whole of western MT.

[IronLionZion]

7. Rural areas have plenty of togetherness

with churches and social events and sports. The family values types often have large families with lots of children spreading it around.

[Igel]

8. ?

So an additional 180,000 deaths over about 200 days does not yield 3,000 deaths/day.

[NickB79]

10. 3000 a day gets us to 700,000 dead by Dec 31

Which is still below their upper estimate.

We'll probably see a second wave with spikes of 5,000+ this fall and winter.

[bucolic_frolic]

9. These numbers are consistent with my Feb calculations based on 1918 and population growth

They haven't changed. They've known all along but chose to give us time to break the news, and Trump Administration is still not coming clean because they won't use math or science. This is a mini-Rapture to them.

[nitpicker]

11. IF the US kept on its current pace of 10K deaths a week

(about 1500 a day), by the end of 32 more weeks one would expect 320K more deaths, totals topping 400K dead.

But that's if everyone (except the nutjobs) maintain social distancing, handwashing and face covering.

I don't expect that to happen.

[left-of-center2012]

12. How many will be dead by Nov's election day?

And will it affect the outcome?

[Initech]

14. There's no slowing the spread anymore. It's already everywhere.

And it's not going to go away anytime soon.