CDC chief: Covid-19 infections could be 10 times higher than confirmed cases

[KY_EnviroGuy]

Source: Politico

CDC Director Robert Redfield on Thursday said the number of coronavirus infections in the U.S. could be 10 times higher than the confirmed case count — meaning a total of more than 20 million.

“Our best estimate right now is for every case reported there were actually 10 other infections,” Redfield said during a call with reporters, referencing data from antibody tests that show who has been exposed to the virus.

He added that with cases spiking across the country, Americans should continue social distancing and wearing face coverings. He particularly singled out younger people, under the age of 50, who have accounted for an uptick in cases as states began to reopen.

The CDC on Thursday removed a specific age threshold on its guidance for who is at high risk of contracting the virus and now says risk increases steadily with age among adults.

Read more: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/25/cdc-coronavirus-infections-higher-than-confirmed-339963

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I hope the statement "risk increases steadily with age among adults" gets a lot of press along with the 10X spread rate. That takes a bit of the burden off us older folks and puts it where it belongs: on young, irresponsible people refusing to stay home and running around without masks and not observing social distancing rules.


KY.........

[Sucha NastyWoman]

1. We are the Sweden of the West

Isn’t it just lovely to be a guinea pig?

[Buckeye_Democrat]

2. That's probably about right.

There was some random sampling done in the past, and the results indicated about that multiplier of the confirmed cases each time.

[NurseJackie]

3. The CDC on Thursday removed a specific age threshold on its guidance for who is at high risk of cont

The CDC on Thursday removed a specific age threshold on its guidance for who is at high risk of contracting the virus and now says risk increases steadily with age among adults.

[SpazzTheCat]

4. The math is pretty straight forward

If you take the current 7-day average positivity rate for the US of 5.95% and apply that to the US population of 331M, you get a total number of infections of 19.7M. That is very much in the same ballpark as what the CDC is saying.

If you take our current number of deaths 115K and divided it by the 19.7M infected you get a mortality rate of .59%. This is probably also in the ballpark of the actual number. We know the current mortality rate of 4.88% is very overstated due to the small population of positive cases we have.

Current Positivity Rate: 5.95%
US Population: 331M
5.95% x 331M = 19.7M Infected

115K deaths / 19.7M infected = .59% mortality rate

[ProfessorGAC]

5. Different Folks Have Been Saying Same

Basically using the same logic.
And the number keeps coming out to around 10.
Every reason to accept this statement.

[marie999]

6. 331,000,000 people times times .7 for probable amount getting the Covid-19 times .0059 equals

1,367,000 deaths. Is my math correct?

[SpazzTheCat]

7. Pretty much

assuming herd immunity is obtained at 70% of the population infected and the mortality rate is .59%

[KY_EnviroGuy]

8. Yes. We need that 70% probability to be much lower.

If only we could make all Republicans go away, at least for a year or two.......

Let's all hope a magic bullet preventative measure comes along well before we reach that point.

[Larry Moecurley]

9. Well, let's all follow Our Glutenous Leader's Ostrich Plan

Stop all testing immediately. That way, we'll be Happy. Well, ya know, um, till we die.

[KY_EnviroGuy]

10. Grand Ostrich Party! I love it.

And our guy is a cross between an ostrich and a turtle.


KY...........

[onetexan]

11. 2.2M x 10 is 22M

Frightening

[jeffreyi]

12. So that lowers the death rate, right?

No worries, everyone!

[LisaL]

13. Doesn't lower the number of people who are dead.

And there is still plenty of people to be infected left.

[Baclava]

14. The stay at home orders were working!, so then they gave up on patience and reopened too soon

The spike is now the new and improved 1st wave

[KY_EnviroGuy]

15. Republicans are under intense pressure from their sugar daddies.

I can just imagine the massive amount of emails, phone calls and lobbyist visits the Rethug politicians are experiencing to push them to just blindly reopen everything and people be damned.

They're digging their own grave, along with many of ours.......