Spain's coronavirus antibodies study adds evidence against herd immunity

[brooklynite]

Source: CNN

Spain's large-scale study on the coronavirus indicates just 5% of its population has developed antibodies, strengthening evidence that a so-called herd immunity to Covid-19 is "unachievable," the medical journal the Lancet reported on Monday.

The findings show that 95% of Spain's population remains susceptible to the virus. Herd immunity is achieved when enough of a population has become infected with a virus or bacteria -- or vaccinated against it -- to stop its circulation.

The European Center for Disease Control told CNN that Spain's research, on a nationwide representative sample of more than 61,000 participants, appears to be the largest study to date among a dozen serological studies on the coronavirus undertaken by European nations.

It adds to the findings of an antibody study involving 2,766 participants in Geneva, Switzerland, published in the Lancet on June 11.

Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/06/health/spain-coronavirus-antibody-study-lancet-intl/index.html

[lark]

1. Hey science folks - doesn't this also make a vaccine very questionable?

??? Damn, if so. Can't we catch a break on this?

[2naSalit]

4. This makes it look like

our depopulation event has arrived.

[StarryNite]

5. That's what I was wondering.

Scary, very scary.

[lark]

6. Gaia seems to be taking her revenge for our destruction of her climate.

WTF have "we" wrought and can we survive this?

[brooklynite]

11. About as silly a theory as "God did it because of homosexuals/abortion"...

What was the excuse for the 1918 Flu pandemic?

[lark]

15. Damn, can't a person have a light moment on here?

Shit happens is my true answer to both 1918 and now and then politicians make it worse for their financial gain.

[paleotn]

31. No.

Sorry, not on this subject.

[Warpy]

8. No, it means that 95% of the people they tested didn't have antibodies.

Since roughly 10% of the population had the disease (a figure I tend to question for a number of reasons), that number is about half what was expected.

Two things are going on here, either people are surviving this without antibody production, with is pretty much impossible, or there is an extremely rapid decline in antibodies post infection, something better determined by following survivors long term rather than samplineg random population.

In any case, vaccines work not just by producing antibodies, they also work by inserting a memory template into beta lymphocytes so that those antibodies will be produced very quickly if the immune system detects that antigen again. "No detectable antibodies" doesn't address this memory system.

What this study says is that fewer people than predicted had detectable levels of antibodies. Antibodies are only part of the story. If it pans out, meaning there is a rapid rolloff of antibodoes after infection, that mostly means that survivors should donate plasma quickly after they recover, should they choose to do so.

So far, nothing has said a reinfection and repeat illness can occur. They found rapid antibody reduction in survivors of MERS, but so far, they haven't found a second illness in any of the patients who recovered.

Tl,Dr: Herd immunity is not about antibodies. It's about the memory of how to make them.

[Steelrolled]

18. So far we have no solid cases of reinfection that I am aware of

And even if it was uncommon, I think we would have detected it by now, given the very large number of cases.

[Warpy]

29. Memory templates for some diseases don't last long

and we might see second infections down the line, but it's likely going to be a matter of years between them, not months, and will mean a vaccine will need periodic booster shots.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

19. Antibody tests don't catch all of the previous infections.

It would be nice to know if infection confers immunity for very long.

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-06-immunity-covid-higher-shown.html

"T cells are a type of white blood cells that are specialized in recognizing virus-infected cells, and are an essential part of the immune system," says Marcus Buggert, assistant professor at the Center for Infectious Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, and one of the paper's main authors. "Advanced analyses have now enabled us to map in detail the T-cell response during and after a COVID-19 infection. Our results indicate that roughly twice as many people have developed T-cell immunity compared with those who we can detect antibodies in."

...

T-cell analyses are more complicated to perform than antibody tests and at present are therefore only done in specialized laboratories, such as that at the Center for Infectious Medicine at Karolinska Institutet.

"Larger and more longitudinal studies must now be done on both T cells and antibodies to understand how long-lasting the immunity is and how these different components of COVID-19 immunity are related," says Marcus Buggert.

[uponit7771]

23. +1, looks like South Korea said only 1% of population was reinfected so far

... and that could have been false negatives or false positives

[Steelrolled]

30. I don't think there have been reinfections at anything near 1%

I'm still waiting for individual cases where it a 100% confirmed reinfection. I would expect some of these, but I haven't heard yet.

[Warpy]

34. Most of what I've read suggests it's people presenting with colds or flu

but who are still shedding non infectious viral debris after recovering from Covid.

[muriel_volestrangler]

32. Where did "roughly 10% of the population had the disease" come from?

The worldometer figures show 0.64% of Spain have tested positive for the virus; so these figures are well above that.

[Warpy]

33. According to the article

the 10% figure was for Madrid, only. Of course, spread was less outside the city.

[Roc2020]

2. So until a vaccine the treatment is

avoid crowds, stay/work from home as much as possible, if have to go outside anywhere near other humans wear a mask. Indefinitely.
seems like still the beginning.

[2naSalit]

3. K&R

Glad there's more evidence that this is so.

[Steelrolled]

17. Why is that?

It seems like any kind of herd immunity would be a positive, even if we don't want to depend upon it.

[2naSalit]

20. I am glad that the truth about there being no such thing

as herd immunity with this virus as so many wannabe know-it-alls want to believe in. Too many are thinking they will make herd immunity a thing by having their stupid covid parties.

People who buy into this kind of bs are going to make the virus a problem beyond the three year projected life run for this virus and have expanded it to at least five years at this point.

This is why we can't have nice things... because there are so many ignorant fucks out there touting a lie.

[Steelrolled]

22. Ok i see - of course vaccines are dependent on the concept of herd immunity,

to be effective. But I think you are referring to herd immunity as a result of normal infections which has not turned out as we would have hoped.

[2naSalit]

24. Yes.

And given the potential for useless vaccine development due to exponential mutation potential... I may never see the day when it's over in what's left of my lifetime.

[Steelrolled]

26. We will (fairly) soon see the effectiveness of vaccines.

with the two trials that haves started (or nearly so). Given the lack of findings of meaningful mutations, I'm optimistic.

[2naSalit]

27. I gave that up for lent.

[Steelrolled]

28. Lent ended about a month ago

You can start your optimism again!

[Igel]

21. Why?

I'd vote for it going the other way, instead of guaranteed death and disease for the indefinite future.

Unless, of course, the death and disease are just useful tools for achieving political purposes without human agency getting to take credit.


Lack of antibody persistence doesn't mean lack of immunity, however.

[2naSalit]

25. Lack of antibody persistence doesn't mean lack of immunity, however.

Perhaps I'm missing something... could you explain why that might be? TYIA.

[qazplm135]

7. a lot we still don't know

clearly this virus is "special." It could take many paths. Mutate into something less harmful, or more harmful...or go away like SARS. We just don't know enough yet. I do have faith that the combined efforts of a lot of smart humans will figure out a path forward.

[LisaL]

10. SARS didn't go away, it was contained.

It was easier to contain than covid. We dint' manage to contain covid. I don't expect it to just go away.

[qazplm135]

16. well I didn't say I "expected it" to just go away

I listed that as one possibility. Which it is.

And "contained" or "go away" are the same thing. We didn't do a vaccine, and it's not like the world-wide efforts at containment were universally even sufficient. And there's nothing to say another outbreak can't happen in the future. It's not been eradicated.

The point is, we don't know, and until we have more information, we have to act with the information we have, which is that it's a deadly disease that right now is easily transmitted, and even mild versions can have life-long consequences, and there is currently no cure except to do what you can to not catch it (distance, masks, etc).

It will mutate. What that means is open. Mutations could have no effect on how it affects us, or could be worse, or better. If it becomes less transmittable, then it will be "easier to contain" and will "go away." The point of this post is that "herd immunity" is not a given. It might be with us for awhile. A vaccine is not a given. My point is that instead of focusing on what might happen in the future, people should focus on what is happening right now, and let the future be what it will be.

But you apparently were keen to jump on a turn of phrase for some reason as if I'm a COVID denier.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

9. I was expecting something else.

Like a study of people who previously tested positive, but now don't show signs of immunity.

The estimated percentage of infected people in Spain was never very high, so the article doesn't really tell me much. It might be news to others, though.

https://covid19-projections.com/spain

[IronLionZion]

12. America is trying to thin the herd

[Maxheader]

13. Herd Immunity...phrase championed by the country's wingers..

Prolly comparing to their cattle ranches...Of course they haven't a

clue when the scientists start talking about virus mutations...and

antibodies that might be good one time and not the next...poor

pathetic conservatives...

[roamer65]

14. Europe has worked to contain the virus.

Thus the high amount of uninfected people without antibodies.