House Rating Changes: 20 Races Move Towards Democrats

[brooklynite]

Source: Cook Political Report

President Trump's abysmal polling since the pandemic began is seriously jeopardizing down-ballot GOP fortunes. We may be approaching the point at which dozens of House Republicans will need to decide whether to cut the president loose and run on a "check and balance" message, offering voters insurance against congressional Democrats moving too far left under a potential Biden administration.

Trump now trails Joe Biden by nine points in the FiveThirtyEight average, roughly matching Democrats' average lead on the generic congressional ballot and seven points larger than his 2016 popular vote deficit. But because there are plenty of solidly blue urban districts where Trump didn't have much room to fall in the first place, his decline is especially acute in swing suburban districts with lots of college graduates.

Republicans began the cycle hoping to pick up 18 seats to win the majority back. Now they're just trying to avoid a repeat of 2008, when they not only lost the presidency but got swamped by Democrats' money and lost even more House seats after losing 30 seats and control two years earlier. For the first time this cycle, Democrats have at least as good a chance at gaining House seats as Republicans on a net basis.

This week, we're shifting our ratings in 20 races, all reflecting movement towards Democrats. View our full ratings here.


Read more: https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/house-rating-changes-20-races-move-towards-democrats

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AZ-02: Ann Kirkpatrick (D) - Likely D to Solid D
CA-04: Tom McClintock (R) - Solid R to Likely R
CA-39: Gil Cisneros (D) - Lean D to Likely D
CO-06: Jason Crow (D) - Likely D to Solid D
IN-05: OPEN (Brooks) (R) - Lean R to Toss Up
KS-02: Steve Watkins (R) - Likely R to Lean R
MN-01: Jim Hagedorn (R) - Likely R to Lean R
MN-03: Dean Phillips (D) - Likely D to Solid D
NE-02: Don Bacon (R) - Lean R to Toss Up
NC-08: Richard Hudson (R) - Likely R to Lean R
NC-09: Dan Bishop (R) - Solid R to Likely R
OH-01: Steve Chabot (R) - Lean R to Toss Up
OH-12: Troy Balderson (R) - Solid R to Likely R
PA-08: Matt Cartwright (D) - Toss Up to Lean D
TX-03: Van Taylor (R) - Solid R to Likely R
TX-06: Ron Wright (R) - Solid R to Likely R
TX-21: Chip Roy (R) - Lean R to Toss Up
TX-25: Roger Williams (R) - Solid R to Likely R
VA-10: Jennifer Wexton (D) - Likely D to Solid D
WA-03: Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) - Likely R to Lean R

[beachbumbob]

1. If democrats GOTV effort resembles 2018, the landslide will be historic and the ONLY

tactic GOP has is to suppress the vote and we KNOW ALL THE TRICKS. Its on us not to be prepared to meet this challenge and if we fail, we deserve the outcome

[bucolic_frolic]

2. ALL the tricks?

Trump will make America think he's running against Vladimir Lenin by election day. We should be putting major effort into the Senate. And we need to be worried about Trump making COVID numbers invisible while claiming the economy is fine, and creating fear with the new secret police tactics. We must stop treating him as ethical and logical and realize he's going to invent whatever he needs. We need to expose, let the sun shine on his corruption.

[riversedge]

4. I will be out canvassing as much as I can

[Maxheader]

3. It is simple math for most..

With one, life..rejuvenated.

The other..misery, economic chaos..death...

And folks? That ain't an exaggeration...

[Lonestarblue]

5. Yay! My district has been moved from solid R to likely R.

TX-25 is heavily gerrymandered and Roger Williams is the POS currently in the House. He does nothing for anyone but his rich donors. The only legislation he proposes is a tax cut or loophole for owners of car dealerships, of which he is one. He votes for every piece of crap legislation Republicans propose. I need to send another donation to Julie Oliver, his Democratic opponent. I would be thrilled to get Williams out of the House.

[MissMillie]

6. Wouldn't it be easier to

Just trust the left to handle things instead of voting Red, letting things go to sh&t, and then expecting the left to clean things up?

[BadGimp]

7. Great post

thank you!