Republicans Lead Senate Races in Alabama, Kentucky and Texas, With South Carolina Tied

[brooklynite]

This discussion thread was locked as off-topic by applegrove (a host of the Latest Breaking News forum).

Source: Morning Consult

Democrats enter the peak of the campaign season with advantages that make their path to regaining control of the Senate easier for strategists and handicappers to envision alongside a Joe Biden victory, but new polling suggests that even a rout at the top of the ticket is unlikely to result in a filibuster-proof majority for the left in 2021.

Senate Republicans are outperforming their well-funded Democratic rivals in Kentucky and Texas, while the chamber’s most vulnerable Democrat, Doug Jones of Alabama, trails his Republican challenger, former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville, by double digits, according to the latest Morning Consult Political Intelligence polling of likely voters in four states conducted from July 24 through Aug. 2. In South Carolina, the data shows a virtually tied contest between Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) — one of President Donald Trump’s top allies on Capitol Hill — and Jaime Harrison, the former state Democratic Party chairman.



Read more: https://morningconsult.com/2020/08/04/senate-presidential-polling-alabama-kentucky-sc-texas/

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In my model, none of these these are compelling races to support.

[samnsara]

1. i think it would be worthwhile to toss a few $$ to the dems...definately Jones as we need..

..to keep seats.

[brooklynite]

8. My model gives us the Senate w/o Jones...

I supported him early on, but my dollars are more useful picking up winnable seats elsewhere .

[dsp3000]

15. It's ashame. Jones is a great man with a great history of battling racism

nt

[Polybius]

21. Jones is getting crushed

There's nothing anyone can do, unless he's caught in bed with a minor.

[DonaldsRump]

2. Hmmmm

These aren't very good numbers. For the life of me, I cannot understand how Amy McGrath is doing so poorly against McConnell.

[rpannier]

4. I can

1. It's a republikan state
2. Most voters do not vote out someone with his power
3. There are potentially persuadable voters who don't trust her
4. She is still rather new to the political scene. This allows McConnell to paintbrush her

[Music Man]

7. Kentucky is, at heart, a conservative state.

Also, like many Americans, they rail against Congress generically, but they keep voting for their guy because they keep bringing in the pork. I think many Kentuckians believe McConnell gives the state clout being majority leader.

Also, McGrath just isn't a strong candidate. I think a lot of folks outside Kentucky have a misconception of how popular she really is here. She lost her House race in left-leaning Lexington in a Democratic wave election year. I have never been as bullish on her running for statewide office as many people seem to be. I think most folks have a hard time articulating what Amy McGrath stands for and is about other than, "She was a fighter pilot." Even against someone as vilified as McConnell, that won't cut it.

I hope I turn out to be wrong this November

[BigOleDummy]

19. Indeed

I made pretty much the same points earlier on about Ms. McGrath and heard crickets. While I would dearly love ANY Democrat to unseat the vile traitor Moscow Mitch I just have a hard time, a very hard time, seeing her do it. I live in the Louisville Metro area which compared to most of Kentucky is pretty progressive and have yet to see one yard sign of hers. No talk about her. I'm afraid we've let our hopes override reality on this one. No idea exactly WHO in this state could unseat him either. Sad and infuriating but true.

[Wanderlust988]

23. McGrath is more popular outside of Kentucky

than inside the state. She's almost becoming a running joke with her fighter pilot ads. She won't win at all.

[empedocles]

3. There are lessons in these numbers for Dems

[bucolic_frolic]

5. SC Senate is possible, Dems need to learn how to talk Senate

Whatever we're doing, we've been struggling at it a long, long time. How many times can you counter MoscowMitch with strong woman?
Hint, probably not in 6 years. But seriously, issues are difficult to localize in a Senate race, political power and broad policies and debates make the race. You counter an unpopular president, appeal to fairness/tax issues. How is it we haven't developed the secret sauce?

[BlueStater]

6. How I wish McTurtle would just drop fucking dead.

I don’t know if I hate anyone as much as I hate Trump, but that beady-eyed, chinless sociopath in Kentucky is definitely a strong contender.

Also, no surprise that Jones is getting crushed. Those cretins were going to vote him out even before he voted to impeach their orange god.

[Nexus2]

13. Believe me

There's allot of us here in Ky that wish McConnell would get turned on his back and left in the sun.

[NewJeffCT]

9. Harrison & Hegar seem to have legitimate shots

Jones is disappointing to be so far behind.

[Lonestarblue]

10. Some people voted for Trump because they wanted change in Washington.

They chose the wrong person, who changed things all right but made them much worse and added chaos and corruption. I think voters still want change, and I would like to see Biden start talking about the Senate and just straight out make the point that if Republicans hold the Senate majority, Mitch McConnell will obstruct all changes, even those that benefit average Americans (just as he did during the Great Recession). This message is important because far too many people mistakenly seem to think that having at least one house of Congress in different hands leads to better government. Given today’s Republicans, it just leads to no government.

[louzke9]

11. SOMEONE ELSE AND DON'T KNOW!

Better VOTE for SOMEONE. This is how/why Trump won 2016. SE and DK have only ONE DECISION to make.....do they want Trump or Biden? That is THE BOTTOM LINE HERE! At least in these states, voters who sit home on their keisters will help Trump and these Senators win.

[B Stieg]

12. WTF is wrong with the South?

Just WTF?

[JT45242]

14. B minus rated pollsters

Not sure I believe these. Especially the 58-59% pro trump votes.

Seems like a smoke screen...

I wouldn't write any of these off.

[cannabis_flower]

16. The numbers in Texas are interesting

Heger is only 6 point behind but 14% say Don't know/No opinion. It would be hard to believe that that group is going to break in favor of a guy who has been a Senator for 18 years if they don't know now.

Another thing is Heger just won the primary so a lot of people haven't heard of her. And if Biden has coattails and wins Texas, it might just pull her over.

[qwlauren35]

17. Jaime

I will continue to support Jaime Harrison. He's only one point behind, and there are enough "I Don't Know"s to swing the election.

[beachbumbob]

18. determination based on a single poll?

also I see no link inside of Morning Consult that actually broke out any data or demographics

[sandensea]

20. Miss Lindsey must be sharing a drink with Susan Collins right now

They're both concerned.

[Bayard]

22. Not buying it

Amy McGrath has consistently polled within a few points of McConnell in the past several months. She's also been raising more money than him, especially from out of state donors.

I am encouraged by Beshear's win as governor. Everyone hated Bevin. Even though McConnell continually shows he could care less about regular KY people, he has big KY money behind him. He is the definition of Swamp Creature. The other problem is that too few people vote here. They don't understand we could do so much better.

Unfortunately, when I try to bring up other polling, everyone else is quoting this poll. People that read that--like in the Courier Journal (Louisville), think there's no hope, so why bother.

[applegrove]

24. After discussion with hosts ..... LOCKING

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